The Race to 76: Can Jett Catch RC?

Johnny Ringo
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5/29/2025 7:17am

The fucked up part is RC probably could have kept on winning 10+ nationals a year until like 2012 lol

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zookrider62!
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5/29/2025 7:51am

The fucked up part is RC probably could have kept on winning 10+ nationals a year until like 2012 lol

You’ve got a downvote from someone, but you aren’t wrong

Reeds last win was in 2011, no reason to think RC couldn’t have won in 12

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vdrsnk04
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5/29/2025 8:33am
vdrsnk04 wrote:
Jett has the capability it seems to do it, time will tell. Hope he can stay healthy like RC did.Honestly, ET3 had it too. Remember he...

Jett has the capability it seems to do it, time will tell. Hope he can stay healthy like RC did.

Honestly, ET3 had it too. Remember he has missed out on multiple MX seasons due to injury. 


I also disagree with the deep field comment. RC had it the same had Jett does. A couple of guys who can honestly compete with him, but the curve drops off quickly after that. Jett has ET3 and CS4 then you will get some flyers who have a good race here and there and the top guys have bad luck. RC had JS7 (for a short bit and RC quit right away), and CR22.

Let's just throw KW14 under the bus?  Where's the stat where, if you toss RC out, then KW has a huge list of wins instead of...

Let's just throw KW14 under the bus?  

Where's the stat where, if you toss RC out, then KW has a huge list of wins instead of a huge list of 2nd places? 

I think you missed my point. I could have kept going. I was saying RC had serious competition in his day just like Jett.

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toroP
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5/29/2025 8:42am
Kyzer138 wrote:

Wow, you have a lot of time on your hands. Well done! 

He gets an A in Advanced Bench Racing

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Park Boys
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5/29/2025 4:40pm
Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total...

Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total. But I do think he is the best chance anyone has ever had. 

It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams Washougal and Undilla run in 2003. 

I was a huge Windham fan back in the day. But let’s face it, the only reason RC dropped two nationals From 02 until 06 was because Windham was on a 450 and RC was not. 2004 proved that quite easily. RC should have had four perfect overall seasons in a row. 

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DadBod86
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5/29/2025 6:41pm

I honestly don’t think Jett will be racing bikes in a few years. 

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ThatOneMXGuy
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5/30/2025 10:03am
Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total...

Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total. But I do think he is the best chance anyone has ever had. 

Park Boys wrote:
It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams...

It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams Washougal and Undilla run in 2003. 

I was a huge Windham fan back in the day. But let’s face it, the only reason RC dropped two nationals From 02 until 06 was because Windham was on a 450 and RC was not. 2004 proved that quite easily. RC should have had four perfect overall seasons in a row. 

Yeah that would have been insane. If RC made the jump to the four stroke when Kevin did. But when Kevin returned on it in 03 MX no top rider was even riding it yet. Actually I guess Ferry was. But Yamaha was way ahead of the game on the 4 stroke. The Honda was new that year and I’m guessing RC wanted what was true and tested. 

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JAKEDOWN492
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Anything is possible. We put a man on the moon. 

Did we though?

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Johnny Ringo
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5/30/2025 11:01am
Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total...

Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total. But I do think he is the best chance anyone has ever had. 

Park Boys wrote:
It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams...

It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams Washougal and Undilla run in 2003. 

I was a huge Windham fan back in the day. But let’s face it, the only reason RC dropped two nationals From 02 until 06 was because Windham was on a 450 and RC was not. 2004 proved that quite easily. RC should have had four perfect overall seasons in a row. 

Yeah that would have been insane. If RC made the jump to the four stroke when Kevin did. But when Kevin returned on it in 03...

Yeah that would have been insane. If RC made the jump to the four stroke when Kevin did. But when Kevin returned on it in 03 MX no top rider was even riding it yet. Actually I guess Ferry was. But Yamaha was way ahead of the game on the 4 stroke. The Honda was new that year and I’m guessing RC wanted what was true and tested. 

Yamaha was certainly not ahead of the 450 game in 2003 lol. That HRC CRF was light years better. 

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paul937
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5/30/2025 12:08pm
JoeyNovice wrote:
Current Win Rates:Jett Lawrence currently has the best win rate in 450 MX history. He has won 16/17 races (94.12%). Ricky Carmichael won 76/88 of...

Current Win Rates:

Jett Lawrence currently has the best win rate in 450 MX history. He has won 16/17 races (94.12%). Ricky Carmichael won 76/88 of his races for a win rate of 86.36%.

To put those numbers into context, no other rider in MX history is even above 50%. Ryan Dungey was at 52.00% before his return to racing in 2022 dropped it to 44.83%.

Jett already has Carmichael covered in terms of races to get to 16 wins. It took Carmichael 23 races to Jett’s 17. However, Carmichael was younger when he reached 16 wins albeit by 18 days!

Can Jett keep it up? If he can maintain this historic win rate, he would reach his 76th win in his 81st race which, if he lines up at every race until then, would be around round 9 of the 2030 season. He would be only be 26 years old.

image %284%29

Alternative Win Rates:

Since Jett’s 94.12% win rate is likely unsustainable, although I wouldn’t put it past him, let’s look at his path to 76 with other win rates.

If Jett *drops* to Carmichael’s 86.36% win rate from this point on, he would still be on pace to hit 76 wins faster than Carmichael by just one race. It would take him 87 races and the 76th win would be around round 6 in 2031 when he is 27 years old.

If Jett drops to Dungey’s pre-2022 win rate of 52.00%, it would take Jett until around round 6 in 2035 when he is 31 years old! That would be 133 total races to get to 76. That scenario is highly unlikely because only three riders in history have raced more than 133 450 MX races.

Strength of Competition:

These race to 76 projections don’t take into account any external factors like injuries, weather, or strength of competition. But I did calculate the average total wins among Jett and Carmichael’s competition at each race across their careers to compare the two riders further.

Carmichael’s competitors totaled up an average of 23.44 450 overall wins at any given race. Jett’s competition average 19.29 total career wins.

If Eli Tomac (32) and Chase Sexton (13) contend at each round of the 2025 series, their 45 combined wins, and possibly more, will likely pull Jett’s competitor average way up.

Carmichael never faced a rider with more than 15 wins at the time of the race. Jeremy McGrath had 15 career wins at the time of two matchups vs RC in 2000 and 2004 (not racing full time). Mike LaRocco had 11 when he raced RC in the 2000 season.

In fairness to Carmichael, he was so dominant that no one was able to accumulate a lot of wins while he was racing, keeping that 23.44 average down.

More Strength of Competition:

Digging a little deeper, we look at the wins of riders when racing against vs not racing against Carmichael and Jett.

Of the 16 riders that were 450 MX winners and competed against Carmichael, only 5 of them managed to win a race with him in it: James Stewart (3), Kevin Windham (3), David Vuillemin (3), Sebastien Tortelli (2), Tim Ferry (1).

15 of those 16 riders had a better win percentage when racing without Carmichael except for Vuillemin. His three wins vs RC were his only three career MX wins.

The breakdown for Jett is much shorter. Only one rider has managed a win against him, Chase Sexton (1), and all winners he competed against have better win percentages without him.

 

I hope this analysis helped show how great Carmichael was and how sensational Jett’s career has been so far. After reading do you think Jett can reach 76? 

Instagram post version of this is on my page @smxmuse

Very cool! 👍🏻 Love this stuff! Super fun to bench race about and always brings out so many different opinions. 

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5/30/2025 12:36pm

No because he’s not gonna be doing much winning anymore once 38 moves up. Enjoy it while it lasts guys!😛

You beat me to the punch. As much as the haters here don’t want to hear it, it’s true. Only 1 more year and we’ll see.

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Flatliner
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5/30/2025 12:48pm
imho Jett has more competition than RC had.......RC had reed , K dub and bubbles who were all realistically capable of winning motos ..........but not...

imho Jett has more competition than RC had.......RC had reed , K dub and bubbles who were all realistically capable of winning motos ..........but not all at the same time .

Jett has .........Chase , Eli (for maybe longer now) , Hunta, Prado(eventually)  , Webb(?), Cooper, AP and likely Deegs (eventually).................

Jett may get past 50 thou.

 

This won't be a very popular take.   RC-James- Chad is all all time pairing. KW was so skilled he managed to win a 250 race while smoking the 125 west.

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Flatliner
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5/30/2025 12:50pm
Park Boys wrote:
It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams...

It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams Washougal and Undilla run in 2003. 

I was a huge Windham fan back in the day. But let’s face it, the only reason RC dropped two nationals From 02 until 06 was because Windham was on a 450 and RC was not. 2004 proved that quite easily. RC should have had four perfect overall seasons in a row. 

Yeah that would have been insane. If RC made the jump to the four stroke when Kevin did. But when Kevin returned on it in 03...

Yeah that would have been insane. If RC made the jump to the four stroke when Kevin did. But when Kevin returned on it in 03 MX no top rider was even riding it yet. Actually I guess Ferry was. But Yamaha was way ahead of the game on the 4 stroke. The Honda was new that year and I’m guessing RC wanted what was true and tested. 

Yamaha was certainly not ahead of the 450 game in 2003 lol. That HRC CRF was light years better. 

He was also going to race it in 04 sx, but blew out the knee.

Stephon
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5/30/2025 12:55pm
DadBod86 wrote:

I honestly don’t think Jett will be racing bikes in a few years. 

So you're honestly thinking that Jett retires after SMX 2027?  

Question
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5/30/2025 1:31pm
Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total...

Carmichael went from mid 03 to the 06 opener without losing an overall. Just absolutely insane. I don’t think Jett gets there to his win total. But I do think he is the best chance anyone has ever had. 

Park Boys wrote:
It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams...

It was more like the last stretch of 03 to the 06 opener.  Plus RC has another big run from last stretch of 2001 until Windhams Washougal and Undilla run in 2003. 

I was a huge Windham fan back in the day. But let’s face it, the only reason RC dropped two nationals From 02 until 06 was because Windham was on a 450 and RC was not. 2004 proved that quite easily. RC should have had four perfect overall seasons in a row. 

Big bold statement here, that I have never heard before, but thinking about it a bit, that is pretty right.

number six
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5/30/2025 5:32pm

The short answer ; doubtful.  But it would be great to see as I still have a bone to pick with RC over cherry picking the last rounds to break Barnetts 125 record.    Selfish fucker, but thats an appropriate segue as to why Jett will have a mountain to climb to get near the GOAT's totals.  

RC had a level of pure desire that is likely going to go unmatched , he's stated he didn't even like the racing or even the winning much after a point, but the desire not to loose was stronger.  A rare trait. 

There's no denying that RC was no where near the artist on the bike that Jett is, watching RC race was a teeth clenching affair, watching Jett's perfection on the bike is, by comparison  .. kinda relaxing. 
Jett has the talent, the racecraft, the fitness .. all the pieces of the puzzle to make a legit run, but he'll need to match what was RC's level of desire, & do it for a decade or so, to stand a chance at surpassing RC's benchmark.  It's a tough ask.  
 

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Kenny Banyan
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5/30/2025 5:50pm
number six wrote:
The short answer ; doubtful.  But it would be great to see as I still have a bone to pick with RC over cherry picking the...

The short answer ; doubtful.  But it would be great to see as I still have a bone to pick with RC over cherry picking the last rounds to break Barnetts 125 record.    Selfish fucker, but thats an appropriate segue as to why Jett will have a mountain to climb to get near the GOAT's totals.  

RC had a level of pure desire that is likely going to go unmatched , he's stated he didn't even like the racing or even the winning much after a point, but the desire not to loose was stronger.  A rare trait. 

There's no denying that RC was no where near the artist on the bike that Jett is, watching RC race was a teeth clenching affair, watching Jett's perfection on the bike is, by comparison  .. kinda relaxing. 
Jett has the talent, the racecraft, the fitness .. all the pieces of the puzzle to make a legit run, but he'll need to match what was RC's level of desire, & do it for a decade or so, to stand a chance at surpassing RC's benchmark.  It's a tough ask.  
 

Good comment!💯👍🏻

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Kenny Banyan
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5/31/2025 10:36am
Gravel wrote:
How does Jett compare to RC in wins vs races held? His percentage of wins to starts is phenomenal, but if you miss a bunch of...

How does Jett compare to RC in wins vs races held? His percentage of wins to starts is phenomenal, but if you miss a bunch of races then.. 

His ride at Pala was amazing, how good does a guy have to be to lead every lap after a long break? I thought he’d podium for sure, but to dominate like that was mind blowing.

I’m actually surprised that people were surprised that Jett dominated round 1. 

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Philly215
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5/31/2025 10:56am

First reply nailed it. If Jett stays healthy, he’ll do it. But Carmichael had an amazing long history of mostly being injury free and not missing time. 

DadBod86
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5/31/2025 1:33pm
Stephon wrote:

So you're honestly thinking that Jett retires after SMX 2027?  

I think he gets bored at some stage and tries something new.. probably when he gets to 27/28 years old.. 

William
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5/31/2025 5:42pm Edited Date/Time 5/31/2025 5:47pm
JoeyNovice wrote:
Current Win Rates:Jett Lawrence currently has the best win rate in 450 MX history. He has won 16/17 races (94.12%). Ricky Carmichael won 76/88 of...

Current Win Rates:

Jett Lawrence currently has the best win rate in 450 MX history. He has won 16/17 races (94.12%). Ricky Carmichael won 76/88 of his races for a win rate of 86.36%.

To put those numbers into context, no other rider in MX history is even above 50%. Ryan Dungey was at 52.00% before his return to racing in 2022 dropped it to 44.83%.

Jett already has Carmichael covered in terms of races to get to 16 wins. It took Carmichael 23 races to Jett’s 17. However, Carmichael was younger when he reached 16 wins albeit by 18 days!

Can Jett keep it up? If he can maintain this historic win rate, he would reach his 76th win in his 81st race which, if he lines up at every race until then, would be around round 9 of the 2030 season. He would be only be 26 years old.

image %284%29

Alternative Win Rates:

Since Jett’s 94.12% win rate is likely unsustainable, although I wouldn’t put it past him, let’s look at his path to 76 with other win rates.

If Jett *drops* to Carmichael’s 86.36% win rate from this point on, he would still be on pace to hit 76 wins faster than Carmichael by just one race. It would take him 87 races and the 76th win would be around round 6 in 2031 when he is 27 years old.

If Jett drops to Dungey’s pre-2022 win rate of 52.00%, it would take Jett until around round 6 in 2035 when he is 31 years old! That would be 133 total races to get to 76. That scenario is highly unlikely because only three riders in history have raced more than 133 450 MX races.

Strength of Competition:

These race to 76 projections don’t take into account any external factors like injuries, weather, or strength of competition. But I did calculate the average total wins among Jett and Carmichael’s competition at each race across their careers to compare the two riders further.

Carmichael’s competitors totaled up an average of 23.44 450 overall wins at any given race. Jett’s competition average 19.29 total career wins.

If Eli Tomac (32) and Chase Sexton (13) contend at each round of the 2025 series, their 45 combined wins, and possibly more, will likely pull Jett’s competitor average way up.

Carmichael never faced a rider with more than 15 wins at the time of the race. Jeremy McGrath had 15 career wins at the time of two matchups vs RC in 2000 and 2004 (not racing full time). Mike LaRocco had 11 when he raced RC in the 2000 season.

In fairness to Carmichael, he was so dominant that no one was able to accumulate a lot of wins while he was racing, keeping that 23.44 average down.

More Strength of Competition:

Digging a little deeper, we look at the wins of riders when racing against vs not racing against Carmichael and Jett.

Of the 16 riders that were 450 MX winners and competed against Carmichael, only 5 of them managed to win a race with him in it: James Stewart (3), Kevin Windham (3), David Vuillemin (3), Sebastien Tortelli (2), Tim Ferry (1).

15 of those 16 riders had a better win percentage when racing without Carmichael except for Vuillemin. His three wins vs RC were his only three career MX wins.

The breakdown for Jett is much shorter. Only one rider has managed a win against him, Chase Sexton (1), and all winners he competed against have better win percentages without him.

 

I hope this analysis helped show how great Carmichael was and how sensational Jett’s career has been so far. After reading do you think Jett can reach 76? 

Instagram post version of this is on my page @smxmuse

The huge caveat is that Carmichael's win rate was over a 10 year span. Jett will NOT keep his current win rate over a 10 year (season) period.

I know that you alluded to this detail but seem to give him a chance at maintaining it. I don't believe he can do that for a second.

 

What Carmichael done over 10 seasons was beyond incredible. 

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kawasa84
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6/1/2025 4:51am
JoeyNovice wrote:

Windham had 26 450 class 2nd place overalls and 19 of those were Carmichael wins!

Were all of those in the 450 class? Or are some of those from the 250 class years before it became the 450 class? Even when K-Dub was on the Honda 450, some of those years were still the AMA 250 class.  

6/1/2025 5:06am

No because he’s not gonna be doing much winning anymore once 38 moves up. Enjoy it while it lasts guys!😛

You beat me to the punch. As much as the haters here don’t want to hear it, it’s true. Only 1 more year and we’ll see.

Not with the starts Deegan gets. You think his speed will be so overwhelming he's going to run down Jett from 10sec back? Haidens's starts are just ok and hes on the fastest bike on the gate. Are they going to improve when he moves up to a 450 and all the bikes on the gate are fast? It will be interesting 

kbsci
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6/1/2025 7:06am

I haven’t read anything in this thread, so sorry if this is a repeat:

This stat on the broadcast that showed Tomac second all time with 69 moto wins, to Carmichael’s 141, was bonkers. Carmichael had been retired for 5 years by Eli’s age 😳

6/1/2025 8:14am

Deegan and Davies are going to spoil the Jett record projection party once they move up.  Injuries will also play a factor (they already have with Jett not being able to finish the last 2 series without injury).

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William
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6/1/2025 8:23am
kbsci wrote:
I haven’t read anything in this thread, so sorry if this is a repeat:This stat on the broadcast that showed Tomac second all time with 69...

I haven’t read anything in this thread, so sorry if this is a repeat:

This stat on the broadcast that showed Tomac second all time with 69 moto wins, to Carmichael’s 141, was bonkers. Carmichael had been retired for 5 years by Eli’s age 😳

That should put into perspective, just how unreal that Ricky Carmichael was. Someone talked about his style, implying as if it may lack the technique to be the best or the fastest against a Jett Lawrence. Kevin Windham and a few others had that super smooth style and technique and was among the best but wasn't anywhere near Carmichael on speed or any other detail.

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6/1/2025 12:02pm

No because he’s not gonna be doing much winning anymore once 38 moves up. Enjoy it while it lasts guys!😛

You beat me to the punch. As much as the haters here don’t want to hear it, it’s true. Only 1 more year and we’ll see.

Not with the starts Deegan gets. You think his speed will be so overwhelming he's going to run down Jett from 10sec back? Haidens's starts are...

Not with the starts Deegan gets. You think his speed will be so overwhelming he's going to run down Jett from 10sec back? Haidens's starts are just ok and hes on the fastest bike on the gate. Are they going to improve when he moves up to a 450 and all the bikes on the gate are fast? It will be interesting 

Haiden’s speed in the last 10min in outdoor mx is overwhelming enough to win against anyone. I’d say if he’s within 10-15 seconds of the leader with 10min to go, he can win. He hasn’t even needed to use it this year because he’s been out front comfortably by the halfway mark. I’ve been following the sport since the mid 90’s and I’ve never seen a rider with finishing speed like Haiden.

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prozach
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6/2/2025 8:42am Edited Date/Time 6/2/2025 8:44am

Jett may catch rc's win total if he stays mostly healthy. But he will never match his undefeated 10 for 10, outdoor championship record!

RC retired so young.  If he had kept going to even 30/31 years old.  It's crazy to think how many he might have had.  

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DonM
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6/2/2025 9:39am Edited Date/Time 6/2/2025 9:47am
jaun wrote:
So without doing any digging myself was there more races in Carmichael's day?12 rounds of MX opposed to only 11 now? Do we need to adjust...

So without doing any digging myself was there more races in Carmichael's day?

12 rounds of MX opposed to only 11 now? Do we need to adjust for that? 

Do we need to also adjust for SX as there was 1 less round then?

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DonM
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6/2/2025 9:46am
prozach wrote:
Jett may catch rc's win total if he stays mostly healthy. But he will never match his undefeated 10 for 10, outdoor championship record!RC retired so...

Jett may catch rc's win total if he stays mostly healthy. But he will never match his undefeated 10 for 10, outdoor championship record!

RC retired so young.  If he had kept going to even 30/31 years old.  It's crazy to think how many he might have had.  

Since he didn't win the championship last year you are correct...and RC was leading the outdoor points when he retired in 2007 after winning the first 5 races of 2007 all ahead of Stewart who went out with an injury at about the same time that RC retired halfway through the series.

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