What are your expectations for Prado in 2025 SX?

Pollock580 1/2/2025 7:01pm
1/2/2025 7:01pm

Hopefully he stays healthy. I think he’ll be outside of the top 10 more than inside of the top 3, maybe even top 5 while the field is healthy. Somewhere between 7-10 early on and slowly getting up to 5-7 as the season rolls on. 

 

yak651
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yak651 1/2/2025 7:18pm
1/2/2025 7:18pm

He was pretty solid last year, not sure why many think he will do worse this year? I say 5-10 place on the regular 

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Meister
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Meister 1/2/2025 7:22pm
1/2/2025 7:22pm
yak651 wrote:

He was pretty solid last year, not sure why many think he will do worse this year? I say 5-10 place on the regular 

I think hell do worse soley because of the bike swap. 

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28hall
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28hall 1/2/2025 7:32pm
1/2/2025 7:32pm
yak651 wrote:

He was pretty solid last year, not sure why many think he will do worse this year? I say 5-10 place on the regular 

I think we are just being realistic. I went back and looked up his results out of curiosity from last year:
13, 7(mud), 11(soft), 12 (12-8-15 triple crown)

He has a bigger challenge this year than last starting from scratch with a new bike and team plus an injury in preseason. Hopefully he can stay healthy and progress through the season but 8-12 is fair when you look at the quality and depth of the field.

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10000hrs
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10000hrs 1/3/2025 3:26am
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Broken collar bone

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Thisusernameisavailable 1/3/2025 9:57am
1/3/2025 9:57am
yak651 wrote:

He was pretty solid last year, not sure why many think he will do worse this year? I say 5-10 place on the regular 

Meister wrote:

I think hell do worse soley because of the bike swap. 

Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? 

Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and that on its own is a notable improvement. 

Youve made a bold statement there brother. 

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yak651
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yak651 1/3/2025 10:49am
1/3/2025 10:49am
yak651 wrote:

He was pretty solid last year, not sure why many think he will do worse this year? I say 5-10 place on the regular 

Meister wrote:

I think hell do worse soley because of the bike swap. 

Thisusernameisavailable wrote:
Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and...

Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? 

Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and that on its own is a notable improvement. 

Youve made a bold statement there brother. 

That plus assuming last year he was playing it safe to protect his chances of an MXGP title. Although it would be best to play it safe during SX for a chance at an outdoor title, feel he has much less reason to to lay up this SX season

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Logan114 1/3/2025 10:51am
1/3/2025 10:51am

8-10 in SX. Outdoors 2-5 which in year 1, should be considered a success. 

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kevinmorrison 1/3/2025 3:25pm
1/3/2025 3:25pm

Running in the top seven with a heat win but out of the series before it ends so he can recover for Outdoors. 

profeshenal125 1/4/2025 2:46pm
1/4/2025 2:46pm
burn1986 wrote:

He looks pretty slow in this one, especially in the whoops and turns. He might’ve just been playing around. 

Yeah swamp should probably remove fast Laps from the title. And rerelease it with a new title Supercross Laps.  Haha.  He looks good everywhere else not much you can do on the newer sx tracks.  But increase whoop speed . I think it more the bike than him.  Kawi has that here is your sx setting we know everything.  1/2 way threw the the rear of the bike looks bad.  Like the shock valving blew out.  Reminds me of breaking the shock clipping 4 footers .

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quadzrulebro 1/4/2025 3:44pm
1/4/2025 3:44pm
yak651 wrote:

He was pretty solid last year, not sure why many think he will do worse this year? I say 5-10 place on the regular 

Meister wrote:

I think hell do worse soley because of the bike swap. 

Thisusernameisavailable wrote:
Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and...

Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? 

Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and that on its own is a notable improvement. 

Youve made a bold statement there brother. 

Sexton didn’t have glowing reviews of his bike in SX last year as I recall.

burn1986
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burn1986 1/4/2025 4:52pm
1/4/2025 4:52pm Edited Date/Time 1/4/2025 4:54pm
profeshenal125 wrote:
Yeah swamp should probably remove fast Laps from the title. And rerelease it with a new title Supercross Laps.  Haha.  He looks good everywhere else not...

Yeah swamp should probably remove fast Laps from the title. And rerelease it with a new title Supercross Laps.  Haha.  He looks good everywhere else not much you can do on the newer sx tracks.  But increase whoop speed . I think it more the bike than him.  Kawi has that here is your sx setting we know everything.  1/2 way threw the the rear of the bike looks bad.  Like the shock valving blew out.  Reminds me of breaking the shock clipping 4 footers .

I like the way Prado is committed and has a good attitude. That goes a long way. The fact is, the Kawi deal opened up for him, and it is a stable bike platform. It sounds like he’s always looking forward and not back. Hopefully he stays that way when it gets tough.

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Thisusernameisavailable 1/5/2025 1:27pm
1/5/2025 1:27pm
Meister wrote:

I think hell do worse soley because of the bike swap. 

Thisusernameisavailable wrote:
Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and...

Wasn’t he on a chassis that isn’t renowned to be a ‘good’ SX bike last year?? 

Maybe, just maybe the KX is a better SX bike and that on its own is a notable improvement. 

Youve made a bold statement there brother. 

quadzrulebro wrote:

Sexton didn’t have glowing reviews of his bike in SX last year as I recall.

Exactly my point. Thst chassis is universally questionable in SX. 

Jorge could get on the KXF and be instantly better for it.

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Cayden Thompson 1/5/2025 4:51pm
1/5/2025 4:51pm
SonofThor32 wrote:
If I recall correctly, he even won a heat race last year, so it is not like he has never done this.  My biggest concern for...

If I recall correctly, he even won a heat race last year, so it is not like he has never done this.  My biggest concern for him that may be unfounded is the bike.  He is going to a very different bike, and aside from Febvre, I have not seen anybody do anything fantastic on the new(er) KX450.  Seewer last year definitely went the wrong direction going from blue to green.  I realize that is the MXGP teams, but it didn't seem to help Anderson much here either.  Maybe it (and the team) will jive with him, who knows, but kinda like when KTM made a sweeping bike change a couple years ago, they went the wrong direction and based on results, I am not sure if Kawasaki didn't do the same.  I think the new KXs are the best looking bikes on the track, but at the pro level, something seems to be missing (IMO).

The only problem is there isn't an elite tier rider on a green bike...the bike is fine. 

Cayden Thompson 1/5/2025 4:56pm
1/5/2025 4:56pm
28hall wrote:
The cheater line on the edge of the triple bothers me the most on that video. There are tough blocks in sx so that line doesn’t...

The cheater line on the edge of the triple bothers me the most on that video. There are tough blocks in sx so that line doesn’t exist so it shouldn’t on a practice track. I think he will be worse then last year, muddy tracks to start the year on a manufacturer he had ridden he’s entire life in a short, zero pressure situation versus now 2 months on a Japanese bike with zero experience, expectation and pressure from himself and Kawasaki plus throw in a preseason injury. I’m not suggesting he can’t get there but he has a steep climb ahead. 8-12

I wouldn't factor in "pressure" as Kawasaki knows that he is brand new to SX and they all know it's going to be a marathon to get him up towards the top. A lot of patience required. 

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kage173
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kage173 1/5/2025 5:59pm
1/5/2025 5:59pm

Top 5s in early races. Hurt and missing races before race 10.

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28hall
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28hall 1/5/2025 6:08pm
1/5/2025 6:08pm
28hall wrote:
The cheater line on the edge of the triple bothers me the most on that video. There are tough blocks in sx so that line doesn’t...

The cheater line on the edge of the triple bothers me the most on that video. There are tough blocks in sx so that line doesn’t exist so it shouldn’t on a practice track. I think he will be worse then last year, muddy tracks to start the year on a manufacturer he had ridden he’s entire life in a short, zero pressure situation versus now 2 months on a Japanese bike with zero experience, expectation and pressure from himself and Kawasaki plus throw in a preseason injury. I’m not suggesting he can’t get there but he has a steep climb ahead. 8-12

Cayden Thompson wrote:
I wouldn't factor in "pressure" as Kawasaki knows that he is brand new to SX and they all know it's going to be a marathon to...

I wouldn't factor in "pressure" as Kawasaki knows that he is brand new to SX and they all know it's going to be a marathon to get him up towards the top. A lot of patience required. 

I definitely agree on the patience required but what happens when we’re half way through the season and his results are the same or worse then his four race cameo? Kawi have always been on the somewhat stubborn side with testing, will friction develop from him being uncomfortable? 
I know prado is of a much higher calibre but Anstie was very vocal about stepping back down to a 250f and needing that supercross experience because of how hard it is just to be in the 450 class week in and week out. Time will tell, I hope it goes well. 

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quadzrulebro 1/6/2025 6:37am
1/6/2025 6:37am
28hall wrote:
The cheater line on the edge of the triple bothers me the most on that video. There are tough blocks in sx so that line doesn’t...

The cheater line on the edge of the triple bothers me the most on that video. There are tough blocks in sx so that line doesn’t exist so it shouldn’t on a practice track. I think he will be worse then last year, muddy tracks to start the year on a manufacturer he had ridden he’s entire life in a short, zero pressure situation versus now 2 months on a Japanese bike with zero experience, expectation and pressure from himself and Kawasaki plus throw in a preseason injury. I’m not suggesting he can’t get there but he has a steep climb ahead. 8-12

Cayden Thompson wrote:
I wouldn't factor in "pressure" as Kawasaki knows that he is brand new to SX and they all know it's going to be a marathon to...

I wouldn't factor in "pressure" as Kawasaki knows that he is brand new to SX and they all know it's going to be a marathon to get him up towards the top. A lot of patience required. 

28hall wrote:
I definitely agree on the patience required but what happens when we’re half way through the season and his results are the same or worse then...

I definitely agree on the patience required but what happens when we’re half way through the season and his results are the same or worse then his four race cameo? Kawi have always been on the somewhat stubborn side with testing, will friction develop from him being uncomfortable? 
I know prado is of a much higher calibre but Anstie was very vocal about stepping back down to a 250f and needing that supercross experience because of how hard it is just to be in the 450 class week in and week out. Time will tell, I hope it goes well. 

Anderson is their workhorse for 2025 Supercross results, and he's already said he would like to stick around, so I'm sure he's plenty motivated to give Kawasaki a reason to keep him.  The pressure will be put on Jorge outdoors this year, and he's certainly got the pedigree to justify that pressure.  If he stays healthy through Supercross, he'll most certainly be in the mix this summer.

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SteveUrchin 1/6/2025 6:42am
1/6/2025 6:42am

Top 10 SX towards the end of the year might get a 4th or 5th and could win Daytona who knows. Outdoors I expect top 5 every weekend and fighting for podiums and wins. 

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Cook441
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Cook441 1/6/2025 4:26pm
1/6/2025 4:26pm

Love this thread- Curious if anyone got a time difference a lap between him and Anderson- I think Prado is a workd class MXGP Champion. He's a racer and will pick things up as he races. I have no doubt he will figure out how to do whatever the fastest guys are doing, just need to be smart and not get hurt. 

Vialle pulled out an amazing thing last year as a GP guy- I am rooting for a top 5 Prado using starts and race wisdom/experience with at least one win this year indoors but call me crazy-

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Teej317 1/6/2025 5:17pm
1/6/2025 5:17pm
crusty_xx wrote:
I don't see any reason why he should be worse than 2024. Sure he's getting used to a new bike but he also has 4 races...

I don't see any reason why he should be worse than 2024. Sure he's getting used to a new bike but he also has 4 races under his belt (6 if you count the triple crown) and months of prep.
I'd say 7-9. Maybe with a top 5 here and there if things go his way.

One of the best starters and he doesn't crash much. Maybe two of the more important qualities for SX

This is correct. 

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googs the 2nd 1/6/2025 5:22pm
1/6/2025 5:22pm Edited Date/Time 1/6/2025 5:23pm

...5-7 indoors.....

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bents 1/6/2025 8:41pm
1/6/2025 8:41pm

Yes he is short on SX experience, but this dude can ride a motorcycle. I'm in the "he will surprise people" camp, threatening the top 5 and being in the mix in the top 10 each race. He is highly adaptable I believe and will catch on quicker than people might realize. A win? That would be more unrealistic but not impossible. I'm pulling hard for the guy. So much so, I just went ahead and put him on my fantasy list for A1! 

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Mavetism 1/7/2025 4:45am
1/7/2025 4:45am

Any results from 4-12 wouldn't surprise me throughout the season, there will be highs and lows. If he stays healthy podiums in the later stages of the season maybe. 
And holy fuck I'm excited for outdoors already!

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kevinsmith 1/7/2025 6:13am
1/7/2025 6:13am

8-12... field is stacked...

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Dan-The-Man 1/7/2025 8:19am
1/7/2025 8:19am

A successful supercross season would be him racing all 17 rounds and go into pro motocross healthy. The laps are more important than the results. I sure hope we are gifted a summer of a healthy Jett, Eli, Sexton and Prado.

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NorCal1975 1/7/2025 9:24am
1/7/2025 9:24am Edited Date/Time 1/7/2025 1:43pm

Top 8 in SX, with a few top 5s, maybe a podium if things break right for him.  If he can keep nailing starts like he did in the GPs, even if he is a few ticks slower than the other top guys he should get some pretty good results indoors.  

Outdoors, top 4 with some race wins and some overalls.  I have him right there with Jett, Sexton and Tomac.  Hunter is a bit behind that group IMO.  At their level I don't really think the lack of experience on the US national tracks will be that big of a deal.  The heat and back to back to back race weekends might take a little getting used to though.   

   

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aeffertz
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aeffertz 1/11/2025 8:18pm
1/11/2025 8:18pm

14th at Round 1 with a great start and a crash. Really struggling with the whoops but is very good at keeping someone behind him. Maybe a touch on the sketchy side with the defensive riding.

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davis224 1/11/2025 8:21pm
1/11/2025 8:21pm

He looked really really good in flashes, but he really needs to work on whoops

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Mavetism 1/11/2025 8:21pm
1/11/2025 8:21pm
aeffertz wrote:
14th at Round 1 with a great start and a crash. Really struggling with the whoops but is very good at keeping someone behind him. Maybe...

14th at Round 1 with a great start and a crash. Really struggling with the whoops but is very good at keeping someone behind him. Maybe a touch on the sketchy side with the defensive riding.

The whoops were absolutely killing him and it seemed like he was getting frustrated and making more and more mistakes. He will only get better though, looked amazing everywhere else in the first half of the main.

He was also known for some dirty riding in the MXGP before his two 450 championships. Definitely not afraid of break checking and cross jumping back then.

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