Roczen vs Lawrence, who wins and why?

My crystal balls say. Tomac way out front, with Hunter gapping Cooper, then Roczen just not unable to get around him.

Kenny will do whatever it takes to win this…

Hunter. Honda starts are on point at altitude right now and we get a repeat of Denver. 

Still want Kenny to pull through and win it though. 

Kenny has proven this season that he'd more than capable of winning even under extreme pressure. Hunter too...but not to the same degree.

Me thinks it'll all be a question of starts. 

Roczen because Honda hasn't had the best luck when it comes to sx championships and the crf450r. And I think Kenny is about to go off in the Main. Ie: riding at his 100%, which is up there. Hunter did what he was supposed to do last weekend (go all out). Kenny did his job(get 2nd and dont lose the points lead.) Now he can just relax, give it his all. And live with the outcome. Both guys are top notch, class acts. What a great season. Outdoors is gonna be special this year too I think. I got Hunter for Smx championship at the end. Fwiw. But I think Kenny's got another Special race in him this saturday.

I think they'll end up near each other throughout (most) of the main. 'Most' because if they're still near each other after the 3/4 point then someone's likely going down... That's just the reality.

Obviously one is going to get a better start than the other but there is phenomena whereby other riders (not in the title hunt) generally don't want to get involved. Even teammates don't generally like to be dragged in.

I'm not saying they'll just roll over but almost... 

E.g I think if Ken is in say 6th etc and Hunter holeshots (or vice versa of course) - then the guy in 6th etc is going to clear through the competition significantly easier/faster than a regular race. So the guy with the better start truly better make hay while the sun shines... If either is caught then it'll end like a Joey Savatgy / Zach Osborne deal for one of them imo.

There is only one answer and his number starts with 9..

I'm a huge fan of both of these guys. I think Hunter has the advantage on the hardpack. Both guys deserve this title in my opinion. I kind of hate there can only be one winner in situations like this. 

I know, right? These two are almost triple-digit dudes and they're the ones battling for the championship. Amazing!

Hahaha.

Yes, Webb is mathematically eliminated. 

Hunter been lucky lately and riding on the edge. Everyone wants Kenny win but that track is made for Hunter if he gets start its over. 

1. Holeshot
2. Leader from holeshot to end of lap 1
3. Track design

If the track is hard to pass on, it's a strike against Kenny. In usual tracks with good passing areas he makes up time very well, and better than Hunter could IMO. 

I think a lot of critical passes will happen from holeshot to end of lap 1. That to me is equally important as who gets the actual holeshot.

Agree that Hunter has a slight edge on the hardpack. Kenny is going to have to ride aggressive and smart if he has a chance.

To be fair they CHOSE those numbers. Not their earned numbers. 

But we’ve been told repeatedly to never count him out. 

I fully agree. I think Kenny made a smart business decision and intentionally laid back. I wanted to see him race for the win in Denver and give himself wiggle room in SLC but probably too risky. Not saying Ken would’ve won in Denver but it was a chance to see if 96 would hold up. Hunter was the one in a must win situation in Denver and props to him for pulling through. I’m super curious to see what happens if Prado holeshots and backs these guys up for a couple laps! It’s on and I’m going with Kenny. 

I think Hunter has the speed advantage and the self-confidence to pass Roczen for the win, should Kenny get the early advantage. But Hunter most likely will holeshot and check out.

Kenny wins title. Why, because it’s racing and things happen. Hunter will have an incident in the final and finish behind Kenny. Tomac wins the race. 

Edit: I hope they go at it and the fastest man on the night wins. I’ll be happy for one and feel gutted for the other no matter how it turns out. 

This^^^ what an epic season between two awesome riders. Can’t remember a time where nearly universally, everyone’s liked both contenders. That makes us all winners.

P.s. Weird choice of music.

I knew somebody would fall for it.

I’m happy with either winning. I just hope it doesn’t hinge on a mistake by one of them.

Unless one or the other gets injured in practice or the heats, to me it's a toss that will turn on starts and staying on two wheels in the main.  I don't see either of them being able to make up several positions and run the other down for a pass to win the race or title if both avoid going down.

Whoever wins will be a deserving champion who should be celebrated for the accomplishment.  I confess it would be feel good to see Kenny get it, but I'm not rooting against Hunter.

KENNETH. 

But to someone else's point above, I feel like there's gonna be this weird "stoked but not stoked at all" feeling when it's all said and done. Both guys deserve it for reasons of their own. Both are clean racers and amazing ambassadors. This sucks, but in the raddest way possible (that doesn't make sense but it kind of does). 

I am going to say Hunter.

I think Roczen is more talented, but I think the HRC electronics, will give Hunter a small advantage, and that's all he needs.

If they were both on equal equipment, I'd give the nod to Roczen, but I think he is so damn talented, he can make up for a lot of disadvantages, but just not enough to overcome that HRC package.

In Nashville Hunter ran down Ken from fourth position and nearly 4 seconds back.

Against anyone else I’d go for Ken but it’s got to be Hunter.

Seems like Hunter just has a bunch of small things in his favour - better starts, better finishes than Ken on hard pack tracks, slightly better fitness in the back half of the race.

At least they’re not as bad as the 199 guy! 

Whoever gets around Pradno first takes the championship.