Panic Button for Chase/Kawi?

philG
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2/16/2026 6:09am

I think at this point, there would be arguments about the size and placement of the button. 

It isnt  that he isnt winning, its how far off he is when he isnt. 

Hunter Lawrence isnt winning, and never has.  

 

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spimx
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2/16/2026 6:58am
spimx wrote:
The best generation kx was 16 to 18 when Tomac dominated. Maybe they can start a new frame asap. Over the past 10 years all the...

The best generation kx was 16 to 18 when Tomac dominated. Maybe they can start a new frame asap. Over the past 10 years all the kx did was gain weight. Maybe he can run am older frame

datkin128 wrote:
Having owned the 16, 19, and now a 25 SR I can def say the 16 was the worst one.  I loved my 19 and the...

Having owned the 16, 19, and now a 25 SR I can def say the 16 was the worst one.  I loved my 19 and the SR has the best overall chassis (turning and stability combo) of all of them.   

Worst suspension but had the best record in racing with Tomac and even AC and savachy did well ok it. Tomac was worse on the 19

2/16/2026 7:42am

Hes not a race down yet. He can still recover. Time will tell.

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OwenJakes
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2/16/2026 8:14am
OwenJakes wrote:
A guy went from winning titles and being world class on a KTM to struggling to be the rider they really are on a Kawasaki? Have we...

A guy went from winning titles and being world class on a KTM to struggling to be the rider they really are on a Kawasaki? 
Have we seen this before?

kiwifan wrote:

Seemed to me he was winning titles on the Honda too 

Go back and look at his first season of SX on the Honda 450.  Wasn’t much winning going on.  I believe he finished 12th in points.

Woah a guys rookie season wasn’t a barn burner? Who could have guessed

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The Shop

tomlopez
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2/16/2026 8:40am
Mikep147 wrote:
At what point does it start looking bad for Kawi as a brand ? I mean I am not on that train I believe it's a...

At what point does it start looking bad for Kawi as a brand ? I mean I am not on that train I believe it's a good bike I mean it's Factory Kawasaki. But Prado looking like a privateer barely making nationals and saying this bike sucks and he's been a new rider on that KTM. We know chase could win on the KTM and now he's just out there cruising looking around .Personally I think Chase looked the best on the KTM. Yes he had some phenomenal rides at HRC but he looked solid on KTM anytime he wasn't on the ground .

Agreed... his 2024 Hangtown moto 2, East Rutherford 2025 (or whichever race he won by like 20 seconds), and Washougal 2025 (was hauling the mail so hard it forced Jett into a mistake) were probably the best rides of his career IMO.

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tomlopez
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2/16/2026 8:43am
profmur wrote:
If the factory Kawi "sucked" how did they win a race this season?  Last night was a tricky track.   Chase didn't push and he kept...

If the factory Kawi "sucked" how did they win a race this season?  

Last night was a tricky track.   Chase didn't push and he kept the bike upright.   Not a great result but he remained unscathed.   Chase is in an untenable situation.  Play it safe and keep the season in mind.   Push and potentially crash out.  The pitchforks come out in either situation.

 

I hear you, but the difference is, I think the consensus idea of Chase playing it safe would be a 3rd place 10 sec back, not a 5th place half a lap back. Never in any situation has his pace been straight-up mediocre on a 450 until this season (save rds 2 and 3).

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truck
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2/16/2026 8:53am

Some of the context of the KTM years seems to be missing as well. He said plenty of times when the bike was good that it was really good, it was just inconsistent. Would go from good to not good without warning. That's not looking for something that doesn't exist. Give Eli last year's shock and see how it goes. Not really fair to say it's an apples to apples comparison when KTM is on all new suspension this year. 

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OwenJakes
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2/16/2026 9:53am

Only asking this here bc idk where else to put it:


Can anyone explain to me how this happens to guys? It does seem like a Kawasaki thing too. Why can they not start on a stock-ish bike and then adjust from there? How is it possible to be 7+ weeks in on testing and not have something you can go ride at 90%?

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RG437
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2/16/2026 10:36am
OwenJakes wrote:
Only asking this here bc idk where else to put it:Can anyone explain to me how this happens to guys? It does seem like a Kawasaki...

Only asking this here bc idk where else to put it:


Can anyone explain to me how this happens to guys? It does seem like a Kawasaki thing too. Why can they not start on a stock-ish bike and then adjust from there? How is it possible to be 7+ weeks in on testing and not have something you can go ride at 90%?

They probably did start on a stock bike to build a base, he was probably pretty happy with the setting they came into A1 with, but you never truly know where you are until you go racing. The night show at A1 was a bit of a disaster and they panicked and made massive changes. 

I think the pre season races are crucial. Sexton has never really done them, but I think if he had done a couple this year he may have had a bit more confidence in his set up to stick with it and not just throw it in the bin straight away.

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TeamGreen
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2/16/2026 10:46am

He’s 18 points out of the lead.

He’s one of 5 riders that’ve won this year….so far.

11 races left to go (65% of the racing left to go).

Man, maybe it’s just me…but…the whole “Panic Button” thing seems silly. 

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Gary Duck
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2/16/2026 10:56am

Just put Levi's forks back on.

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Motofinne
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2/16/2026 10:56am
TeamGreen wrote:
He’s 18 points out of the lead.He’s one of 5 riders that’ve won this year….so far.11 races left to go (65% of the racing left to...

He’s 18 points out of the lead.

He’s one of 5 riders that’ve won this year….so far.

11 races left to go (65% of the racing left to go).

Man, maybe it’s just me…but…the whole “Panic Button” thing seems silly. 

There is so much context to the 18 points. It could be much worse, and the fact is that he has 4 riders in front of him that are head and shoulders better than him at the moment.

18 points is nothing if you're consistently the fastest rider and are able to reel of wins and podiums for multiple races in a row. Does it seem like Sexton and Kawasaki are on their way to a situation where they just straight up start beating those other top riders in all conditions? Absolutely not.

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Zucchini Nibs
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2/16/2026 11:57am
OwenJakes wrote:

Woah a guys rookie season wasn’t a barn burner? Who could have guessed

He was also out for half the season, and still showed blazing speed, he crashed while leading at round 2 of I remember right and that put him out for a while

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TeamGreen
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2/16/2026 12:01pm
TeamGreen wrote:
He’s 18 points out of the lead.He’s one of 5 riders that’ve won this year….so far.11 races left to go (65% of the racing left to...

He’s 18 points out of the lead.

He’s one of 5 riders that’ve won this year….so far.

11 races left to go (65% of the racing left to go).

Man, maybe it’s just me…but…the whole “Panic Button” thing seems silly. 

Motofinne wrote:
There is so much context to the 18 points. It could be much worse, and the fact is that he has 4 riders in front of...

There is so much context to the 18 points. It could be much worse, and the fact is that he has 4 riders in front of him that are head and shoulders better than him at the moment.

18 points is nothing if you're consistently the fastest rider and are able to reel of wins and podiums for multiple races in a row. Does it seem like Sexton and Kawasaki are on their way to a situation where they just straight up start beating those other top riders in all conditions? Absolutely not.

I guess we can jus’ disagree an a few things. 

Like I said, he’s won a main…on a bike that he’s still sorting out. 

On top of that, he’s shown the ability to race with anyone out there. In fact, again…he’s BEAT ALL of them on the track…already. 

As he continues to get the bike sorted out and goes East…where he’s usually less inclined to “Pull a Sexton”, he’s gonna be up front more and he’s gonna be a threat.

Btw, same goes for Webb & KR.

While we’re here, I’m thinking we’ll have 6 or 7 different winners this year. 

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GPrider
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2/16/2026 12:09pm

the 18 points behind matters because even if he splits wins going forward he is still 18 points down. 18 point down is only doable if Tomac, Hunter, Coop, KR all pull sextons at the same time and Chase wins, not going to happen. so ya, 18 points matters. 

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TBOLTUSA
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2/16/2026 12:22pm

Could win or crash trying next weekend 
 

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yak651
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2/16/2026 12:25pm
GPrider wrote:
the 18 points behind matters because even if he splits wins going forward he is still 18 points down. 18 point down is only doable if...

the 18 points behind matters because even if he splits wins going forward he is still 18 points down. 18 point down is only doable if Tomac, Hunter, Coop, KR all pull sextons at the same time and Chase wins, not going to happen. so ya, 18 points matters. 

18 points matter if you are behind the same guy that wins each week. 18 point gap can be closed with wins and the other guys swapping podiums. Not saying it’s happening, especially the way he looked the last two weeks, but the gap isn’t insurmountable 

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tek14
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2/16/2026 12:26pm

Kawasaki killed it... careers that is. 

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2/16/2026 12:35pm
OwenJakes wrote:
Only asking this here bc idk where else to put it:Can anyone explain to me how this happens to guys? It does seem like a Kawasaki...

Only asking this here bc idk where else to put it:


Can anyone explain to me how this happens to guys? It does seem like a Kawasaki thing too. Why can they not start on a stock-ish bike and then adjust from there? How is it possible to be 7+ weeks in on testing and not have something you can go ride at 90%?

I mean you herd this on Pulp. Sexton blazing fast first few rounds and made mistakes he's never rode that Bike in ruts like that. The bikes already good enough to win needs to go back to what he was running early on 

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flow
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2/16/2026 12:52pm
RG437 wrote:
I’m not sure they will get there, simply because Chase’s skill set and the characteristics of the Kawasaki don’t match up, same with Prado. Everyone who...

I’m not sure they will get there, simply because Chase’s skill set and the characteristics of the Kawasaki don’t match up, same with Prado. Everyone who has been successful at Kawi has been super aggressive, hard on the throttle, steering with the rear. RV, Tomac, Febvre and Anderson all have these traits and they were able to be successful on it. Sexton and Prado are basically the opposite. There’s nothing wrong with a bike having certain characteristics as long as they have the riders to compliment them. If you’re starting off with riders who need the bike to be the opposite to play to their strengths then I believe you will always be struggling. 

I’m sure Chase will still have good rides, he probably wins again this season, but the variance from good to bad will be big and I don’t think he will feature as a title contender at the end of the season 

flow wrote:
Interesting. I definitely see where you're coming from, and do agree that the timetable of finding success with that team is past this year alone if...

Interesting. I definitely see where you're coming from, and do agree that the timetable of finding success with that team is past this year alone if it comes. If Chase has incompatibility with that many bikes and Kawasaki only fits a certain type of rider I think that says something about both of them right now that might be worth examining lol. 

I do think they can do it though. Timetable might not be a ways out but they're sorta outta excuses so it's a figure it out or implode situation. I actually think him not hitting that table top this weekend was him being smart rather than going all out and subsequently crashing. I'd rather see the dude get P3-5 most of the season and stay healthy, build a foundation with the bike that he can carry over to mx, and then test really hard next off season and make another step forward. He's not ready to race Eli, Webb, Lawrence, and Roczen week in and week out anyways. 

It's Chase though so he could also go on an absolute tear and make us eat our words lol. 

RG437 wrote:
I think there’s lessons to be learned on both sides. From Sexton’s perspective, this is going on 6 years now where he’s been chasing a perfect...

I think there’s lessons to be learned on both sides. From Sexton’s perspective, this is going on 6 years now where he’s been chasing a perfect set up and he’s never managed to find it, so that should probably indicate to him that he’s probably never going to find what he’s looking for in that regard. He wasn’t happy with the bike at KTM and he still won an outdoor title and won 7 SX races last year, so he’s already proven that he can win on a set up he’s not entirely happy with. I don’t understand why he keeps changing so much. 

From Kawasaki’s perspective, they hired two of the top elite talents in the world in the past 2 years, and both of them looked the worst they ever have in their career on the Kawi and Prado was willing to give up a very substantial amount of money to get out of his deal. Even if they believe that they have done everything they can and it’s not their fault I still think that is the kind of thing that should lead to some kind of internal review into how they are doing things. 

I fully agree when you say that they will either figure it out or implode. It was easy to blame Prado last year because he’d made such a big change and most in the US were not as familiar with his talent. But now people are starting to see how good he really is, and Sexton is now struggling, it shifts the focus. It can’t continue in the same way as the last couple of races for much longer. JT said on the review pod that he’s already hearing that things are bit more dicey over there than they are letting on. Not sure whether he means the relationship between Kawi and Sexton or just the general team atmosphere, but something is going to break one way or the other 

Yeah, his perfectionism is a whole thing as well, and his seems very multi-faceted. Like, some of the times he's crashed it's like, "yes Chase, we get that the bike broke traction, but you also tried to take a flat turn with a very questionable berm at a 30* lean angle while the suspension was unsettled by braking bumps. Throw us a bone here". I think you actually answered part of your question though. Part of why he keeps changing is because he's chasing a unicorn rather than learning to just ride a fucking workhorse lol. 

The writing is potentially on the wall for the version of his career that he had in his head. He's a winner for sure but like you said, not really giving off champion vibes in the way that he wants to be. Which is fine. He's still plenty young, in insanely good shape, and could probably stay competitive for another 6 years at least. Plenty of time to figure it out. Hell, if this contract ends and he's still a human rollercoaster, maybe he can go over to Roczen's team or start something like that so he can have full autonomy of his bike haha. 

Doesn't surprise me about what JT said. I think things are gonna get much worse before they get better. The version of this that I've got in my head only really starts to improve when both Kawi and Chase run out of directions to point fingers and are forced to look in the mirror. If I'm right I really hope Chase has someone in his corner telling him to keep his mouth shut and not air dirty laundry to Lewis and risk turning reconcilable work conflict into actual animosity and resentment. 

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Racerman967
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2/16/2026 1:24pm

He won a SX title because Eli got hurt. He won an outdoor title because Jett got hurt. I understand you have to stay healthy but when has he won a title by flat out beating someone? 1 of his East 250 title he was trailing Forkner by a decent margin and Forkner got hurt. Jumps from bike to bike and there is one common problem, Chase Sexton on the bike.

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2/16/2026 1:36pm
Jkawi wrote:
This is the one situation where kawi should suit their stereotype and not let him change anything. Give him a bike that the test riders set...

This is the one situation where kawi should suit their stereotype and not let him change anything. Give him a bike that the test riders set up and tell him he has lost his set up privileges. If he rode a damn setup for more than a week, I feel like he would maybe improve.

I don’t think that would work well for securing riders in the future. Riders like what they like, whether it would be better to use a different setup or not. 

Silas444
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2/16/2026 1:39pm

In interviews now, Ian Harrison can't seem to stop grinning. Pretty sure that says something.

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2/16/2026 1:42pm
Silas444 wrote:

In interviews now, Ian Harrison can't seem to stop grinning. Pretty sure that says something.

Says his first year rider has won 3 of 5 races. And Prado is shutting people up and making the Kawi look bad. Lots of reasons to have a cheesy grin lol. 

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2/16/2026 1:44pm

18 points back is a lot when you're losing points to the guys ahead of you every weekend. Two more bad races and he'll get passed by Jcoop for 5th. 

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2/16/2026 3:00pm

By the time this 3 year contract is up his window for winning a championship will be pretty much closed. I think he fucked up that KTM situation and don't see how he couldn't get along with that team but what do I know. What I do know is he was fast as fuck on that KTM often. He is out of excuses and almost out of teams and I'm not sure whoever is left on the merry go round wants to help a guy find a set up that only exists in a fairy tale.

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THall28
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2/16/2026 4:24pm

Factory Kawi at this point kind of reminds me of Factory Yamaha before Star took over the 450 program.

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Spoonguy
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2/16/2026 4:53pm
Silas444 wrote:

In interviews now, Ian Harrison can't seem to stop grinning. Pretty sure that says something.

Says his first year rider has won 3 of 5 races. And Prado is shutting people up and making the Kawi look bad. Lots of reasons...

Says his first year rider has won 3 of 5 races. And Prado is shutting people up and making the Kawi look bad. Lots of reasons to have a cheesy grin lol. 

Eli needs 4 more wins to match Chase's total at KTM last year? Seems he can do it, and Prado looks real good too. The combination of a rider who never is happy with his set up combined with a team that historically has been tough at setting bikes up seems like a match made in hell for Chase and Kawasaki so far.

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2/16/2026 5:01pm Edited Date/Time 2/16/2026 5:01pm
THall28 wrote:

Factory Kawi at this point kind of reminds me of Factory Yamaha before Star took over the 450 program.

Spot on. The Blue Pig 

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