AC Will Win The 450 National Title This Year

gt80rider
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gt80rider
Edited Date/Time 9/27/2020 4:59am
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....
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Dirtydeeds 9/8/2020 9:07am
9/8/2020 9:07am
I’m a fan of AC but I’m gonna go with a hard no.
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-MAVERICK-
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-MAVERICK- 9/8/2020 9:09am
9/8/2020 9:09am
In your dreams, maybe.
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bvm111
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bvm111 9/8/2020 9:16am
9/8/2020 9:16am
uuuuuuhhhh.... khakis
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H4L
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H4L 9/8/2020 9:16am
9/8/2020 9:16am
Have friends that have connections in the CO area. They tell me that's where all the good Marry Jane is at..
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280driver
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280driver 9/8/2020 9:19am
9/8/2020 9:19am
gt80rider wrote:
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems...
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....
Both AC and Eli’s bikes are on point. The difference is how they ride them and mostly who gets the better starts.
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kb228
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kb228 9/8/2020 9:20am
9/8/2020 9:20am
AC has big mistakes fairly often. If he can ride like he did yesterday then yeah maybe. But he hasnt proven to be that guy yet.
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Dirtydeeds 9/8/2020 9:21am
9/8/2020 9:21am
H4L wrote:
Have friends that have connections in the CO area. They tell me that's where all the good Marry Jane is at..
Don’t blame the weed! This might be a case of drinking bong water.
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H4L
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H4L 9/8/2020 9:25am
9/8/2020 9:25am Edited Date/Time 9/8/2020 9:40am
kb228 wrote:
AC has big mistakes fairly often. If he can ride like he did yesterday then yeah maybe. But he hasnt proven to be that guy yet.
My thoughts are he's building his program this yr. & can potentially be a title threat next season. He appears to be getting it figured out in the big bike class.
GripNRip617
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GripNRip617 9/8/2020 9:28am
9/8/2020 9:28am Edited Date/Time 9/8/2020 9:29am
2021 will begin the AC, Sexton and Ferrandis era.

And the best part is that none of them are on KTM's.. yet.
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mx 219
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mx 219 9/8/2020 9:31am
9/8/2020 9:31am
Isnt he 42 pts back??? If so, good luck.
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H4L
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H4L 9/8/2020 9:32am
9/8/2020 9:32am
GripNRip617 wrote:
2021 will begin the AC, Sexton and Ferrandis era.

And the best part is that none of them are on KTM's.. yet.
Also CW2.. The kid has shown he has a bull dog mentality that can't be taught. You either have it or you don't.
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JeepnMike
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JeepnMike 9/8/2020 9:32am
9/8/2020 9:32am
Title should be changed to:

"If AC92 can stay healthy for the remaining rounds, he will continue to impress"

I am a fan, I would love to see him get a title. But he needs to reduce his mistakes, continue turning heads, and focus on a SX title in 2021.
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early 9/8/2020 9:35am
9/8/2020 9:35am

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skeef
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skeef 9/8/2020 9:50am
9/8/2020 9:50am
Realistically.. no.

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Gordon Liddy
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Gordon Liddy 9/8/2020 10:13am
9/8/2020 10:13am
Negative ghost rider.
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Dirty Points 9/8/2020 10:39am
9/8/2020 10:39am
At this point, it is more Zach's to lose, than anybody else's to win.
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Falcon
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Falcon 9/8/2020 11:13am
9/8/2020 11:13am
Here's a "Math with Falcon" moment:

AC is 42 points down to Zacho, which means he'll have to gain 43 points in 8 motos to take it. That means 5.4 points per moto, or approximately 3 positions at the sharp end of the pack. I don't see Adam winning every moto from here on out, so let's assume an average finish of 2nd; Zach would have to finish 5th or worse each time out.


A statistically more likely scenario has Marvin taking the title away from Zach with 29 points in 8 motos; that's 3.6 points per gate drop, or about 2 positions at the top part of the results. That would still require #25 to take 2nd place in every moto and Zach to finish 4th or worse.

Less statistically likely but arguably more probable is Eli Tomac winning all the remaining motos. He would need 5.9 points per moto, or about 3 positions ahead of Zach. Still 4th or worse for Osborne in EVERY moto going forward.
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Coenmx
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Coenmx 9/8/2020 12:06pm
9/8/2020 12:06pm
I am a huge fan of him and Osborne so I would love either of them to win it but I think Osborne has this year locked in ..
Spudnut
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Spudnut 9/8/2020 12:11pm
9/8/2020 12:11pm
A little bad luck from Osborne could crack this thing wide open again. Not likely to happen but it could
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web mx
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web mx 9/8/2020 2:17pm
9/8/2020 2:17pm
gt80rider wrote:
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems...
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....
RC's rookie year in 250 sx was 1999 just sayin
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tuttle425
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tuttle425 9/8/2020 2:34pm
9/8/2020 2:34pm
I'd like to see any of the top 5 win. I'd like it to be close when Pala comes around.
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stantdm
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stantdm 9/8/2020 4:23pm
9/8/2020 4:23pm Edited Date/Time 9/8/2020 4:24pm
Osborne has been inconsistent in the past and although this year he is probably riding better than he ever has history tells me not to bet the farm on him.
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captmoto
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captmoto 9/8/2020 7:44pm
9/8/2020 7:44pm
Spudnut wrote:
A little bad luck from Osborne could crack this thing wide open again. Not likely to happen but it could
But it is 2020 so I've put my surprised face away until next year.
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gt80rider
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gt80rider 9/20/2020 9:00am
9/20/2020 9:00am
Smile
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APLMAN99
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APLMAN99 9/20/2020 9:26am
9/20/2020 9:26am
Falcon wrote:
Here's a "Math with Falcon" moment: AC is 42 points down to Zacho, which means he'll have to gain 43 points in 8 motos to take...
Here's a "Math with Falcon" moment:

AC is 42 points down to Zacho, which means he'll have to gain 43 points in 8 motos to take it. That means 5.4 points per moto, or approximately 3 positions at the sharp end of the pack. I don't see Adam winning every moto from here on out, so let's assume an average finish of 2nd; Zach would have to finish 5th or worse each time out.


A statistically more likely scenario has Marvin taking the title away from Zach with 29 points in 8 motos; that's 3.6 points per gate drop, or about 2 positions at the top part of the results. That would still require #25 to take 2nd place in every moto and Zach to finish 4th or worse.

Less statistically likely but arguably more probable is Eli Tomac winning all the remaining motos. He would need 5.9 points per moto, or about 3 positions ahead of Zach. Still 4th or worse for Osborne in EVERY moto going forward.
What are the updated statistics now?

I didn’t think that AC had much of a chance when this thread was started, but with Osborne’s bad luck yesterday and AC’s speed the last couple of weeks, I think that he really could win the thing.

If AC rides like the last few weekends, he could beat anyone on the line easily. If he gets just a tiny lapse in concentration, though, he seems much more likely than the other top guys to yard sale out of contention.
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Ozy
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Ozy 9/20/2020 9:29am
9/20/2020 9:29am
gt80rider wrote:
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems...
And here is why- His Kawi seems on point, while his teammate constantly has bike issues, Marv isn't quite back to full conditioning yet, Zach seems to have lots of small mistakes, K-Roc took the summer off, and Webb has back issues. Lets face it, the 450 class is RIPE for the picking, especially by someone with AC's raw speed...

Btw... the last time I did a new thread like this was in the Fresh Dirt days when I posted that RC would win Daytona his rookie year in the 250s (2000)....
Still 6 moto's left to run. Anything can happen (#16 & #25 proved this in moto 2 yesterday)

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yamahaha131 9/20/2020 11:47am
9/20/2020 11:47am
Spudnut wrote:
A little bad luck from Osborne could crack this thing wide open again. Not likely to happen but it could
captmoto wrote:
But it is 2020 so I've put my surprised face away until next year.
👆🏻
Suicidal_Tendencies 9/20/2020 12:26pm
9/20/2020 12:26pm
I didn't comment on this when it was first posted, but I have to admit when I read it, I was thinking, this guy is nuts if he thinks AC is going to take the title. But after winning both motos yesterday, and closing the points gap to something reasonable it sure looks like AC has a decent shot of he keeps riding the way he did yesterday.
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