Roczen vs Lawrence, who wins and why?

Kenny

Because for several weeks now, he is the fastest & the smoothest guy on the track. His recent performance takes us back to the days when he was one of the two fastest guys in the world.

KR will do what ever it takes to finish in front of Hunter, Within one or two laps from the start, he will be charging through any new line that keeps him moving forward. 

1 and 26, get out of the way.

who has a better track record of dealing with pressure? 

 

Let's go Kenny!  That is all.

They're both capable of a great night, or an off night. We'll see which one has a greater night Saturday.

I feel like Hunter has the momentum, but Roczen is capable of hanging it out and being the fastest...and this is the moment to do that.

It really just comes down to the start. Hoping a 1-2 start with Hunter in the lead and Roczen in tow. Roczen attacks immediately and puts Hunter behind him for the rest of the race. Kinda boring? Yes, but I just want to see Kenny do it and have it be straight up.

Hoping to see a full on last corner torpedo pass akin to Osbourne/ Savatgy…..don’t want any injuries just metal sparks flying everywhere…..of course we will not see said pass as the camera crew will be focused on Webb trying to take out Prado for 8th place…..

Obviously I want Hunter, and I feel like the odds should be in his favour, however does anyone get the vibe that Kenny has literally nothing to lose? He could uncork all hell in terms of early race intensity and full send and just ride until the wheels fall off? I don't even think he's racing outdoors? 

I’ll be happy and sad at the same time either way, they are both deserving of the title, through their riding but also as advocates of the sport.

May it be a really clean battle where the AMA or lappers don’t become a deciding factor- I’m really scared about the AMA part 

Watching this edit i was like man kenny deserves it then watching the hunter part i was like hunter is a beast and definitely deserves it. 

Fair is a place where they judge pigs.

Yep. You totally got me. Can’t believe I fell for that one.

This is really a tough one to call. I’m going with Roczen………just want to see him win it 👍

I've seen and heard this theory about HRC's advantage a few times now, but I don't think it neccessarily plays out that way.

No doubt HRC currently has access to more resources than HEP. But on a hard track Kenny's bike looks way more planted to me. Hunter's bike looks edgy. I think the difference in performance there is down to the rider on each individual day, and so far that's been Hunter more often than not. 

On a wet track, different story; Roczen is better, full stop.

Great riders. Great season. 
As others have said : shame they can’t both win it. 

Interesting how different it is to win, potentially by one point over coming second (first loser)

As I’ve said in another post: If I made the night show once, I’d still be wearing the T shirt. 
If someone finishes the fastest series in the world, in second place - it’s kind of nothing. (But does prove they are one of the best riders in the world!)

Some head to head stats for the season to date:

Number of starts this year (counting all Triple Crown races) = 22
Number of full length mains = 13

They have five event wins each, and seven race wins each.

Hunter number of Top 5 starts - 18 (82%)
Hunter number of Top 10 starts - 22 (100%)
Hunter average start position - 3.18

Ken number of Top 5 starts - 16 (73%)
Ken number of Top 10 starts - 19 (86%)
Ken average start position - 4.91

When they start in the top 5:

Hunter's average position gain is 0.05.
Ken's average position gain is 0.19

They have each caught and passed the other 3 times during the season.

Hunter has finished ahead of Ken 13 times.
Ken has finished ahead of Hunter 9 times.

In full length mains:

Hunter has finished ahead of Ken 8 times.
Ken has finished ahead of Hunter 5 times.

Also in full length mains they have only finished within 10 seconds of each other 3 times

I would love for Kenny to win it after all he's been through, but Hunter has made incredible improvements over the last few years and hasn't had an easy road with injuries either, so both of these guys are more than deserving of getting their first title.  I'll be rooting for Kenny and hope he pulls this off, but I'll still be super happy for Hunter if he takes it. it honestly sucks to have to pick one.

I think in the end Hunter is going to have a speed advantage, but if Kenny can get off to a good start and build a little bit of a gap early he has a great shot at it.  I think Hunter is the more likely of the two to make a mistake and lay it down, so if Kenny can pressure him hard from behind or make him sprint hard early on to try to match his pace that could force Hunter into a mistake.  I really just want to see these guys race heads up, nobody else getting in the way and no cheap shots, just race it clean to the end and whoever takes it, takes it.

I really want Kenny to win so I picked Hunter as my fantasy pick to win. More often than not the rider I pick to win doesn't win.

Not sure who wins but my heart wants kenny to win more despite being Aussie.

I guess ive been invested in roczen for longer.

Straight up head to head if Kenny's on I think he'll take it. I think Kenny hates losing more than Hunter, has a worse temper and willingness to go fight or flight mode. He's older and I think his under pressure auto pilot is more experienced than Hunters. Like if Hunter has a couple bobbles it'll get in his head, where Kenny will shake it off and charge harder.  Although.... 😄 Starts are going to be a big part of it, and if they have to go through traffic who's between them ? I'm rooting for Kenny, and will be happy for either one, but I'll be happy-er if it's Kenny  ✊

So a kid from Aus who's tradie dad sold everything to try their luck in europe.

They got fucked over by a few teams in europe.

Family are doing it tough and Kennys dad buys them a motorhome to get by.

Their ex agent notices them doing well in europe and finds them a deal with Geico.

Signs Jett sight unseen!!!

Move to the states and Hunter cant get around the honda test track eating shit and getting hurt.

Little brother takes over as a freak and wins everything.

Hunter almost gives it away to help Jett.

Somehow sticks it out and now is going for the biggest title in the world.

Huge Kenny fan after what he has been through and some of the first lap races blow my mind.

But it’s hard to not cheer for my fellow countryman who has fought hard to get where he is.

I want KR to win really, really bad. Sooo Hunter is most likely going to lol. Honestly, in most other situations I would be rooting for Hunter but like DB said, if Kenny wins this title, the story is movie worthy. 

Excluding start crashes or mechanical, being punted of the track by other riders etc. Assuming dry conditions.

If they start 1-2, I think Roczen has nothing for Hunter and the Honda on dry slick hard packed.

If muddy, rutty. I'm all for Roczen.

And Im hoping Roczen winns it, I really do. But Honda on that dirt? Nope.

I mean, he sounded remarkably mature for 11 years old… and to have already come back from a major injury and still have the drive? That explains a lot about his personality.

He, Hunter, was a local to me back then. 

The same guy - Paul from MPE (see forks) was doing my suspension. Great guy, great improvement on my suspension - MX, woods and Supermoto for me. 

I have to back the Nice, respectful, hardworking, previously local, Aussie rider. I’m a huge fan of both Lawrence’s. Hunter in particular is easy to like. 

But like most others: I really like and rate Ken. He is very impressive and deserving. I’m also a huge fan of KR94. He seems like a great guy, and an unbelievably good rider - respect. 

The good news is: “second” place is the worst result for either. 
The bad news is: only one can Win the championship. 

Sunday* will Funday 
While I nurse today’s wrist surgery 

* In Australia- UTC +10

If forced to put money down… Would take HL. For the time being the Lawrences seem to be keeping the Golden Horseshoe all in the fam. He has youth, hunger and talent. But I do not think he is as confident as he seems. We could see a mistake lose it for him due to nerves.

I would prefer KR to win. I admire his skill. He is running out of time. He is probably one of the best technical riders ever. He has class. Like ET doesn’t need to win by knocking someone down, trash talking, blocking routinely, etc. 

My fear is that both times I went to the season ending finale KR had problems. A get off back in a stange muddy Vegas when he was in the champ race with RD. The hurt himself in Salt lake City finale back during the ET achilles year. He has his share of bad luck and occasional mental error. This year he seems on though. Hope it pays off for him.

I feel like Hunter has a small advantage speed wise going into the final round so I think if Hunter wins it will be because he was faster but if Kenny wins it will be because of a Hunter mistake, sorry Ken.

Anyways, the biggest winners are us fans because we've been treated to an epic season that's going right down to the wire. Plus whoever wins, we'll have a great champion & ambassador for the sport. Just a shame one of them has to lose.

If Hunter carries the form from last week I don't think it will even be a race, if it rains or something weird happens ken is in it.

That's a good point. Hunter likely has dozens of races in his future that will be extremely important and career-defining. For Ken, this might be the most important 20 minutes on a dirtbike he ever has again. I'm not saying he should ride so out of control that he torpedoes himself - I would hate to see that. But, one does think there might be a dotted line in Hunter's mind that keeps him from going to 110% - he has outdoors in a few short weeks and possibly a half decade or more of contending for championships, and to stall that with a catastrophic crash would really make the rest of his career difficult. I might be wrong though - these championship opportunities are literally why they race. There is no guarantee he will be here again, so might as well push the limit.

K-Roc for the win!! This guy has more experience and won’t fold under the pressure of winner take all.