Tomac hurt?

If he's injured, he's also a moron for the way he handled press this past weekend. You can get away with saying "I'm fine" when you're not, but you don't go around telling everyone they're crazy for their injury questions if you're hiding something. JT said as much on review pod.

You also don't go to California to test when you're injured or sick and it's caused you to look this bad. Why would you? You need to heal, and any struggles would be assumed to be health related, not the bike. 

My theory is that he was never as comfortable on the bike as he believed he was and that's finally caught up to him. Setup has as much to do with confidence as it does with actual settings. Early in the year when you've finally had a full off season, switching teams, everyone is positive, confidence is high, it's easy to convince yourself that anything you're feeling is minor and will improve with time on the bike to tweak things. You're Eli tomac and that confidence is enough to propel you to some early season success. 

Those positive vibes snowball and all is well, until it isn't. Get sick, get cross jumped, get straight up beat, and the same thing you felt two months prior now is to blame and has to be fixed. You start chasing it, it gets worse, you're lost, and all those negative vibes spiral just as fast as the good vibes did. 

Just going back to old settings doesn't create the same total environment you had previously with those settings. You can't go home again. Lewis said he showed up this weekend with new suspension and clearly didn't want to talk about it. 

I think that's what we're seeing right now. Bike isn't perfect, confidence is shot, scrambling to fix problems that might be real and might be only perceived..... That's not an easy thing to put into words for a press release though. Everything is fine. 

Eli and chase should go get a beer together. 

At this point, being under the weather is probably most likely. Kids, traveling. If he did get covid or nasty flu that's 2-3 weeks you are out. I had both last year, no fucking fun. 

Can still push like he did to keep Webb off 2-3 laps but isn't ideal being that high in HR and sick. 

He isn't hurt by definition so statement he made around that would still be true?

Do you add more travel to go do testing in California if that's the case? 

I wouldn’t categorically rule out anything but aging is gradual and doesn’t account for all of a sudden having poor form and technique relative to a matter of weeks ago. Your reflexes and reactions slow but you can compensate somewhat with form and technique. You don’t generally see that drastic of a difference that quickly to the point where you’re 30+ seconds off of your pace from a few weeks ago. Aging doesn’t predict what we’re seeing. He’s not just not winning - he’s not competitive with riders he’s recently beaten. And he looks uncomfortable and out of sorts. 

Injury or illness does explain that sort of rapid change and either are high probability occurrences. Age can also play into it - recovery becomes more difficult and the effects of illness or injury can be exacerbated by age. But age as the sole cause? Doesn’t seem to fit the evidence. That’s not blind fanaticism. It’s inference to the most likely explanation. 

I'm betting this is an injury, but after someone brought up that it could be mental I did some digging. I watched the WSX races again, and Tomac gets passed by non-factory guys and deegan in one of the races, although his riding looked more aggressive than this weekend. Maybe his head hasnt been in it this year and he was just super pumped the first couple rounds until he lost the red plate?

Just speculation, I still think this is a physical injury

Eli is not hurt physically.

Who hurt his feelings?

I totally get where you are coming from there and not even saying that I disagree. But 1 thing that I always thought was weird is when people in this sport refuse to be transparent about an injury. i don't really understand what that accomplishes. How does it give your competition any more of an "edge" than you pretending that you are 100%? You are riding around getting beat by people that you shouldn't be losing to. So at that point you are admitting you are full strength and getting beat. How is 1 better than the other?

We see other guys admit injury all the time. It's not like the competition goes out and tries to ram into said injured body part. Obviously it's Eli's choice, but by not saying anything, you open yourself up to all this speculation and it just goes on, non-stop on the pre-race show, during the event, online etc. If you just come out and say the problem, it will get talked about but at least everyone accepts it for what it is, and mostly moves on. 

I personally am not overly worried about it, the guy can do as he pleases. I am just more looking at both sides of it and trying to weight the benefit of being so silent, if that is what is happening.

I can't attest to HOW MUCH this is a factor, but from my experience racing on rutted out nasty tracks means unanticipated things happen. Racing a bike you're intimately familiar with helps in these conditions, as your reflexes help save you. Muscle memory is real.

Chase and Eli are both on different bikes this year, and both have struggled with consistency. Ken Prado and Hunter are on very familiar platforms. JCoop and to some degree Webb as well, but the Yamaha did make a huge pivot 3 years ago.

So I'm suggesting that at least part of it might be related to muscle memory.

I heard, deegans in his head about outdoors.

LOOOOL

I think the exaggerated, defensive answers to questions about injury are a reason to think that’s a touchy subject for him. So I don’t see it as evidence he’s not injured - quite the opposite, actually. 

Your theory might be correct but my claim  - that he’s likely sick or injured - is much more parsimonious. The fact that he’s testing in California is a data point against what I’m saying but not devastatingly so. If he needs to alter his setup to compensate for something being wrong with his body then that requires testing. 

He’s an experienced, successful, veteran rider - it’s hard to believe his confidence is so fragile so as to be the cause of his problems. But stranger things have happened. 

Depends on how sick you are. Some just shows most when you are very high in heart rate. These guys can do 2-3 laps without issues and raising BPM to much on a SX track.

But of course, it doesn't help recovery. Maybe it's twofold. Been sick + bikes not where they want to be.

Is last year's shock issue back, taking some confidence out from Eli or that solved forever when they went to new setup? 

Lots of stories of elite athletes toward the end of their careers who think they are good then wake up one day and realise they aren’t.

As I noted it happened to MC.

I’m not saying categorically that is what’s happening with Tomac but it’s entirely possible. 

EDIT to add - the age aspect is mostly a mental thing.  The body doesn’t just suddenly give up; but the mental acuity to race SX at the top level is high and it’s not something you can just push through.

After rethinking this, I’ll learn towards some bike comfort issues, and maybe some sickness (flu). Why would he go testing the Monday after a SX race if was injured, or if he was completely comfortable with the bike? I also don’t think he would outright say he was not injured if he was. Not say anything about an injury, yes, but not say no outright. 

Let’s also not forget Eli was ready to retire three years ago. That plan was detailed by an unfortunate injury, and the unplanned extension to his career hasn’t exactly gone smoothly with further injuries and being forced to change teams again.

None of this is a slight on the guy but he’s only human.

Odds are it is what some of you guys just said...bike setup and still being weaker than normal from being sick. Not trusting the bike makes you slow down, work harder, and get arm pump. All of these make you ride less aggressively and fade, especially when you are still not 100% from having the flu. Remembering the cold sore he had is telling. Virus.

Put those things together, and it hurts your confidence...snowballs. Add in Hunter and Kenny picking up the pace...the LCQ thing seemed to mentally drain him...and I don't think he is a liar, so he is not hurt. He won't want to publicly say the bike is not right anymore.

Jason Weigandt says "It's weird."

Weege is correct.

Ian won't want to say it is the bike and/or Eli has a virus...but I just thought someone would ask him. We saw so much of Ian doing interviews a while back...now he is nowhere to be found???

If it weren't for the four guys ahead of Webb I'd say finishing behind CW2 was OK for Eli at St Louis. 

Typically the harder the track the better he does so agree something is off. He seems in a much better state when he’s training at home so adds to speculation I guess. Maybe when he gets back to west coast, something clicks again. Guaranteed he wants to win in Denver one last time so I’m hoping he’s got it figured out by then. 

I don't believe that he's hurt or old age is affecting him physically but do believe he is wiser and more concerned about finishing the season. These last few tracks were getting trashed and the rhythm sections had major ruts in the pockets and he just wasn't comfortable. 

Does anyone know for a fact Eli was in CA for testing, not just a report of "the team" being there? Eli has at least 1 and I think more tracks on his own personal property where testing has always taken place. They have been known to change his track to mimic upcoming races too. Whatever it is that's bothering him, I would think they wouldn't make it worse making him travel when they could do the same thing right at his house like been done before.

Yes keefer said he got some spy shots of him on Monday testing.

In most situations finishing behind Webb on a nasty rutted track wouldn’t have been too bad. This is not one of them though. 

Such banter.  
Hard to be on top of your game each and every day.  
I know when DE 3 wouldnt win a cup race on a particular day nobody was bashing him wondering what was up. 
Not exactly comparing the same thing but..

He’ll be fighting to the end.  Should be a good ending and I hope all stays healthy.  

Maybe 32,1 and 26 can each get a win down the road. 

RC and RV2 say they think it is the bike setup. Others are suggesting that too. That would explain why Eli is saying no injury and just bad riding on his part. Arm pump from fighting the bike would make him look like he is not trying...we have seen that before from him...just not recently.

I would say the most telling thing, is what is the interaction like with the team immediately after the race. 

Serious discussions - bike/set up issues, because they expect to win. 

 Or is it calm and business as us usual. That would tell us a lot about the expectations and where they are at. 

If they are calm and going about their business, one would have to think/know there is something going on - illness/injury related.  

The amazing thing is that with as uncomfortable as he’s looked the past three races, he’s still in the points lead.  Whether he’s sick or uncomfortable on the bike, he’s still very much in the fight.  With just a handful of races left, we have 3 riders within 5 points.  It’s a great year to be a supercross fan!

He mentioned when he got on the KTM it felt like it had a much more planted feel, more G's is the term i think he used? Maybe in the softer/ruttier conditions it is to much so?

I'll throw my (very hopeful) $.02 out there. 

The weekend after Daytona he was obviously sick, next weekend was still recovering from said sickness, and this past weekend the track was so sketchy that he just backed it down. Risk reward is definitely something that has gotten him to back it down in recent years. 

I know this is the most ideal and unlikely situation, but man I want this championship to continue on track, how it was through Daytona.