MotoGp Cancelled

MPJC wrote:

Yes, it pales in mortality rate compared to Ebola, but a virus with a lower mortality rate that spreads more easily can be more deadly overall...

Yes, it pales in mortality rate compared to Ebola, but a virus with a lower mortality rate that spreads more easily can be more deadly overall as there will be more cases. The importance of containing the spread until treatments and eventually a vaccine can be developed cannot be overstated.

TbonesPop wrote:

The P&I mortality rate is 6.9% ([u]pneumonia and influenza[/u]). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2 Look just below the two maps of the US in the middle under P&I mortality. If...

The P&I mortality rate is 6.9% (pneumonia and influenza). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2 Look just below the two maps of the US in the middle under P&I mortality. If dying from the flu is 0.05%, then the risk of dying for pneumonia is WAY higher and a much greater risk than Coronavirus.

Also of note:
"Among 2,172 hospitalized adults with information on underlying medical conditions, 92.1% had at least one reported underlying medical condition, the most commonly reported were cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorder, obesity, and chronic lung disease. Among 397 hospitalized children with information on underlying medical conditions, 48.6% had at least one underlying medical condition; the most commonly reported was asthma."

My 74 year old neighbor and friend passed away from pneumonia yesterday.

While the issue should be taken seriously, there should not be panic. I've also seen where there are multiple vaccines already developed for it, but have not passed all the necessary channels approved for taking it to market.

APLMAN99 wrote:

You are misinterpreting that percentage.

The 6.9% isn’t figured the same way that they are using to determine mortality rate for this.

D_L118 wrote:

Does anybody know the comparison with the mexican flu in ‘09? I can’t remember if it got the same attention in the media...

TbonesPop wrote:

The global infection total for Coronavirus just topped 88,000 with just 3000 deaths, 3.4% fatality rate - most of which were immunocompromised. Last years death rate...

The global infection total for Coronavirus just topped 88,000 with just 3000 deaths, 3.4% fatality rate - most of which were immunocompromised. Last years death rate for pneumonia and influenza was 6.9%, nearly double that of the Coronavirus.

Oh, and I didn't get my stats from the mainstream media, I got it from www.cdc.gov

Indian_Dunes_4ever wrote:

Today I went into a local indy Mexican Taco shop and stood in line with some sketchy characters.... I like living on the edge.

>>>>>>BRaaaaap....Urp<<<<<<<<<<

Indian_Dunes_4ever wrote:

Today I went into a local indy Mexican Taco shop and stood in line with some sketchy characters.... I like living on the edge.

>>>>>>BRaaaaap....Urp<<<<<<<<<<

backinthesaddleagain wrote:

We had to send someone home today. Employee was at a school where two have tested positive. Don’t know if she came in contact with anyone...

We had to send someone home today. Employee was at a school where two have tested positive. Don’t know if she came in contact with anyone who might have symptoms. Did not come in contact with the two who tested positive. But we are playing it safe and she can work remotely.

D_L118 wrote:

Does anybody know the comparison with the mexican flu in ‘09? I can’t remember if it got the same attention in the media...

FerCzD wrote:

I remember the Mexican Flu «crisis» from 2009-2010 (H1N1) or influenza. The first cases worldwide were near my hometown. Nothing happened, I swear 1st world country...

I remember the Mexican Flu «crisis» from 2009-2010 (H1N1) or influenza. The first cases worldwide were near my hometown. Nothing happened, I swear 1st world country media makes everything sound worse as it is. If the shitty health care system in this underdeveloped country managed to survive it, it amazes me how Euros or people in USA are so freaked out.

Didn't you guys in 09 had a financial crisis? What was it? Subprime mortgage crisis?

I'd be more worried about what's not being discussed on the news and happening behind doors, for example the current student loan crisis (around 1.3 Trillion USD), factor the fact that economic growth has been steady for the past 11 years, it's time now for a adjustment.

muskyhusky592 wrote:

What concerns me about the published COVID-19 numbers is how the data is being presented. The fatality rate of 2-3% that everyone is using is based...

What concerns me about the published COVID-19 numbers is how the data is being presented. The fatality rate of 2-3% that everyone is using is based on the total number of confirmed cases divided by the total number of confirmed deaths.

What is concerning is the "case fatality rate" which only takes into account the resolved cases, meaning that the confirmed cases either contracted the virus and died or they contracted the virus and survived. Using this source, this would mean that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 based on public data as of 3/2/2020 is (3125 deaths / 48129 recovered) x 100% which equals 6.49%, much higher than the 2-3% number that everyone is running with. The Spanish Flu, which was the deadliest pandemic in humanities history, had a case fatality rate of 2-3%. If COVID-19 was just like the regular flu then there would not be quarantines.

Bringing this back to moto I would not be surprised if we see a supercross event get cancelled this year. I hope I am wrong.

muskyhusky592 wrote:

What concerns me about the published COVID-19 numbers is how the data is being presented. The fatality rate of 2-3% that everyone is using is based...

What concerns me about the published COVID-19 numbers is how the data is being presented. The fatality rate of 2-3% that everyone is using is based on the total number of confirmed cases divided by the total number of confirmed deaths.

What is concerning is the "case fatality rate" which only takes into account the resolved cases, meaning that the confirmed cases either contracted the virus and died or they contracted the virus and survived. Using this source, this would mean that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 based on public data as of 3/2/2020 is (3125 deaths / 48129 recovered) x 100% which equals 6.49%, much higher than the 2-3% number that everyone is running with. The Spanish Flu, which was the deadliest pandemic in humanities history, had a case fatality rate of 2-3%. If COVID-19 was just like the regular flu then there would not be quarantines.

Bringing this back to moto I would not be surprised if we see a supercross event get cancelled this year. I hope I am wrong.

str8line wrote:

We're talking about entertainment, but it's possible that school could be cancelled. Imagine large scale school closings.

StartedTooLate wrote:

Underdeveloped countries do not have highly optimized economic systems. The current Price Earnings multiples in the equity markets are historically high. Commercial RE cap rates (the...

Underdeveloped countries do not have highly optimized economic systems. The current Price Earnings multiples in the equity markets are historically high. Commercial RE cap rates (the inverse of a PE ratio, for commercial RE) are historically low. What is all this based on? -> Rosy assumptions about the future and future cash flows. What happens when those multiples collapse...and THAT then in turn feeds into reduced demand in the economy? The real risks are ECONOMIC...not public only health. A 3rd world economy will not see their economy fall off as much because it is not highly optimized.

Here is a motor-head analogy. Toss some sand in the oil of an XR400. Do the same with a Star Yamaha 250f. Which one will fail catastrophically? Which one will keep running?

FerCzD wrote:

I can tell you when the US is doing bad Economy-wise, here gets uglier. Mexico a highly dependent economy on the US (manufacturing, export our agricultural...

I can tell you when the US is doing bad Economy-wise, here gets uglier. Mexico a highly dependent economy on the US (manufacturing, export our agricultural products, etc) leads to lots of people losing their job. And when that happens in a country where the social fabric has been torn apart by inequality and poverty, then the violence scalates (as it is right now).

Won't go deeper in the discussion. Back to moto.. I wonder what happens if a event is cancelled due to a contingey like this one (a GP for example), does the promotor has a clause to secure the investment?

TbonesPop wrote:

The global infection total for Coronavirus just topped 88,000 with just 3000 deaths, 3.4% fatality rate - most of which were immunocompromised. Last years death rate...

The global infection total for Coronavirus just topped 88,000 with just 3000 deaths, 3.4% fatality rate - most of which were immunocompromised. Last years death rate for pneumonia and influenza was 6.9%, nearly double that of the Coronavirus.

Oh, and I didn't get my stats from the mainstream media, I got it from www.cdc.gov

StartedTooLate wrote:

Tbones, [b]Are you a deliberate liar, or are you just too lazy and incompetent to gather basic facts? Explain yourself.[/b] Your blatant lies sounds a lot...

Tbones,

Are you a deliberate liar, or are you just too lazy and incompetent to gather basic facts? Explain yourself.

Your blatant lies sounds a lot like the lies that come out of the current Administration. You wrap a truth (the fatality rate from Coronavirus is 3.4%...close enough to be credible) with another truth (the fatality rate from "pneumonia and influenza" is 6.9%) inside a false equivalence (a blatant lie that you can compare Coronavirus vs "Influenza and Pneumonia"), and argue that therefore the Coronavirus is nothing to be concerned about.

Why would you do such a thing? People like you make the world a worse place. Is that what you teach your kids - TO BE CLEVER LIARS? WHY DO YOU MAKE SUCH BLATANT LIES? DO THEY MAKE YOU FEEL BETTER?

#1 Influenza is a viral infection that attacks your respiratory system — your nose, throat and lungs. Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. You can see the latest CDC estimates on this page: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm The worst case death rate would be 46,000 deaths vs 32,000,000 infections, or 0.14%.

#2 Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs. There are dozens and dozens of ways you can get pneumonia. Most of them are NOT from influenza. For instance, I once got aspiration pneumonia from emergency surgery when I puked into my own lungs and nearly flat lined on the table. My mom died of breast cancer, but the direct cause of death was...pneumonia. So of that 6.9% 6.886% is due to pneumonia NOT RELATED TO INFLUENZA.

So for you to claim a 6.9% fatality rate from "Influenza and Pneumonia" and then compare to Coronavirus is a nonsensical implied equivalence when only a fraction of Pnemonia casts are due to Influenza. You used the CDCs reporting methodology (which lumps them together in the annual "National Vital Statistics Report" - see here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf, TABLE B ) to promote a blatant LIE.

#3 The proper comparison is to compare Corona virus to Influenza and leave pneumonia out of it. Pneumonia is a complication that can arise from either virus. Are you too ignorant of basic infectious diseases to understand this? 3.4% / 0.14% = 24. Coronavirus is 24x more lethal. As sample sizes increase, the ultimate number will probably be 20-30x. No way to know yet. So how can you imply the two are even close to equivalent?

#4 There is also the issue of transmissibility. Cornoavirus is more readily transmissible by orders of magnitude. It also has a longer incubation period, meaning you do not know you are transmitting the disease for days or even weeks. This makes the virus much more likely to spread fast.

So they are NOTHING AT ALL ALIKE. Yet you want to spin lies that they are. Why is that? You need to look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself if you want to be a positive force in the world.

SO AGAIN...I ASK YOU...ARE YOU IGNORANT, OR ARE YOU A DELIBERATE LIAR? WHAT GOOD DOES IT DO ANY OF US...WHAT GOOD COMES TO THE WORLD IF YOUR LIES ARE BELIEVED?

SHAME ON YOU.

StartedTooLate wrote:

Underdeveloped countries do not have highly optimized economic systems. The current Price Earnings multiples in the equity markets are historically high. Commercial RE cap rates (the...

Underdeveloped countries do not have highly optimized economic systems. The current Price Earnings multiples in the equity markets are historically high. Commercial RE cap rates (the inverse of a PE ratio, for commercial RE) are historically low. What is all this based on? -> Rosy assumptions about the future and future cash flows. What happens when those multiples collapse...and THAT then in turn feeds into reduced demand in the economy? The real risks are ECONOMIC...not public only health. A 3rd world economy will not see their economy fall off as much because it is not highly optimized.

Here is a motor-head analogy. Toss some sand in the oil of an XR400. Do the same with a Star Yamaha 250f. Which one will fail catastrophically? Which one will keep running?

FerCzD wrote:

I can tell you when the US is doing bad Economy-wise, here gets uglier. Mexico a highly dependent economy on the US (manufacturing, export our agricultural...

I can tell you when the US is doing bad Economy-wise, here gets uglier. Mexico a highly dependent economy on the US (manufacturing, export our agricultural products, etc) leads to lots of people losing their job. And when that happens in a country where the social fabric has been torn apart by inequality and poverty, then the violence scalates (as it is right now).

Won't go deeper in the discussion. Back to moto.. I wonder what happens if a event is cancelled due to a contingey like this one (a GP for example), does the promotor has a clause to secure the investment?

str8line wrote:

The affect on the world will be big as Western societies begin to deal with this. Unfortunately the poor will suffer disproportionately. This is just the...

The affect on the world will be big as Western societies begin to deal with this. Unfortunately the poor will suffer disproportionately. This is just the start of bad juju though. All of the challenges coming our way due to climate change/overpopulation/sickness, etc. will be brutal. We need to be real about this, the only thing that will help us is worldwide monumental governmental change.

hamncheeze wrote:

The culture of greetings in parts of Western Europe is really not helpful for containment. The kiss-on-the-cheek greeting needs to be eliminated....but culture and tradition is...

The culture of greetings in parts of Western Europe is really not helpful for containment. The kiss-on-the-cheek greeting needs to be eliminated....but culture and tradition is difficult thing to overcome. One has to think this is a contributing factor in the spread in Italy. Just like in Iran, where the culture of large groups eating together and sharing food is also not good for disease propagation.

But yeah, the MXGP in Trentino is looking shaky, though a lot can change in a month (for better or worse).

braap braap braap wrote:

Or maybe the real fatality rate is closer to 0.1%. So I ask are you too lazy or incompetent to gather all of the facts... or...

Or maybe the real fatality rate is closer to 0.1%. So I ask are you too lazy or incompetent to gather all of the facts... or perhaps you have an agenda to promote fear and panic and politicize this for obvious reasons.

From the New England Journal of Medicine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Of importance is paragraph 3. For those that don’t want to click the link, here you go.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

Plugga wrote:

Non moto.

backinthesaddleagain wrote:

We had to send someone home today. Employee was at a school where two have tested positive. Don’t know if she came in contact with anyone...

We had to send someone home today. Employee was at a school where two have tested positive. Don’t know if she came in contact with anyone who might have symptoms. Did not come in contact with the two who tested positive. But we are playing it safe and she can work remotely.

StartedTooLate wrote:

I just had discussions today with the owners of our company about getting together a contingency plan: 1. Find a way for more people to work...

I just had discussions today with the owners of our company about getting together a contingency plan:
1. Find a way for more people to work from home. Buy a bunch of laptops, get them set up. Loosen up our VPN security temporarily.
2. Change how we do meetings
3. Find a way to minimize contact between people.
4. Etc etc...get creative.

The real risks to all this are economic. We have a highly optimized economy. Highly optimized system are inherently fragile.

peelout wrote:

"Stanley, listen to me... I have CoraonaVirus, there's only a 98% chance that I will live" [img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2020/03/02/408126/s1200_randy.jpg[/img]

"Stanley, listen to me... I have CoraonaVirus, there's only a 98% chance that I will live"

TbonesPop wrote:

The global infection total for Coronavirus just topped 88,000 with just 3000 deaths, 3.4% fatality rate - most of which were immunocompromised. Last years death rate...

The global infection total for Coronavirus just topped 88,000 with just 3000 deaths, 3.4% fatality rate - most of which were immunocompromised. Last years death rate for pneumonia and influenza was 6.9%, nearly double that of the Coronavirus.

Oh, and I didn't get my stats from the mainstream media, I got it from www.cdc.gov

toroP wrote:

Mortality rate from flu is generally .1%.
That makes covid19 more than 30 times more deadly.

fatpurplepanda wrote:

True, but cows kill 340% more people annually than sharks. What are more people scared of? Sharks kill 5 and horses cows 22..stats can always be...

True, but cows kill 340% more people annually than sharks. What are more people scared of?

Sharks kill 5 and horses cows 22..stats can always be used to twist things

peelout wrote:

"Stanley, listen to me... I have CoraonaVirus, there's only a 98% chance that I will live" [img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2020/03/02/408126/s1200_randy.jpg[/img]

"Stanley, listen to me... I have CoraonaVirus, there's only a 98% chance that I will live"

cody41 wrote:

99.98%* chance of living. People are way over exaggerating with this virus. My guess is the virus was created to throw a wrench in things coming...

99.98%* chance of living. People are way over exaggerating with this virus. My guess is the virus was created to throw a wrench in things coming up to the US election. For the last 10 years or so a virus “magically” appears.