I feel like the 450 class has been logjammin some younger guys from moving up to a 450 [factory] ride for the last couple years and there's a few riders that have just been hanging out, winning a handful of races, but otherwise not winning championships like they are predicted to do going into every year.
Got me thinking, if you were to bet on whos the next guy to move up (other than Davies, who could go as quickly as next summer potentially)? Here's my cases for a few of the contenders:
Kitchen: he's turning 26 in February, he's DUE to get on a big bike. He doesn't seem to have that dawg mentality to finish off a championship against someone who's stiff competition, so waiting around for a championship to fall into his lap might not be his best strategy if that's a prerequisite for his move. He currently holds the red plate but I'll get a #47 tattoo if he pulls it off even in this three race series. Maybe he'll get the macadoo/forkner 10 year PC contract and ride that out. Who knows.
Shimoda: see mostly the above except instead of lack of mental fortitude, it's more structural integrity that's the issue. Guy gets hurt a lot. Him and Honda have a good thing going and I've heard that they'd make a third spot next to the Hunter brothers if he became undeniable, but that's a big question mark. He followed up his breakout 2025 season with an injury filled dud.
Thrasher: probably not. It'll be interesting how long he stays on PC though. He wasn't bad this year.
Pierce Brown/ Michael Mosiman: probably past the window for MM to get a factory 450 ride, brown needs to put it together for a full year to see what he's really got under the hood before any real assessment can be made. He shows flashes then disappears, sort of like thrasher.
Does ANYONE (other than Davies) get the call up before one of these guys in the next couple years? Does Sasha Coenen come over and be undeniable? Does Beaumer star healthy on the KTM and put it together? How about Ryder D? Could he turn these consistent podiums into consistent wins? Does one of these young Cadens come in and mollywop the field next year? Could Hymas prove to be a 450 force at MXdN?
What say you? Who would you place your money on to get the call up once the old guard starts moving on to greener pastures?
(Just something I'm wondering about while my son watches more Bluey on a Friday night...making some chit chat.)
Jo Shimoda is one that is ready for a 450
Levi Kitchen ready but i think he's afraid of the dangerboy
Cole Davies ready as well but Star will have him defend 250 titles
My current 3 favorite 250 riders:
Davies is the most obvious choice. With his riding style, he should be a 450 contender from day 1.
Jo is 100% my guy, and I think he'll do well on a 450, but I think he'll be a lot more like AP...good for mixing it up, and the occasional win, but I don't think he'll contend for championships unless a lot of cards fall his way.
Hymas to me is the biggest question mark. He has the potential to be great, but will his body let him rise to that potential?
Davies and Shimoda are the only 2 I think will be podium contenders
How about Max Anstie ? He would be a better 450 rider indoors and out.
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Based on technique and size I think Vohland might do getter for himself moving up.
Cole aside I would argue chance hymas , other than JO at nations last yr , granted it was off road but still chance got races under his belt on a 450 , im sure Levi & others practice on a 450 but it ain’t nothing compared to actually racing the machine & chance already got more experience in tht
This is an interesting one that I can definitely see happening. Club has shown that they're willing to let riders move around classes, like they did with Simonson this year.
No hate on Anstie, but he is very openly bushwhacking in the 250 class. His goal is a 250SX title. He makes way way way more money racing a 250 than he would on a 450. He can win WSX on a 250 in his sleep. He's a podium guy in the 250SX class in the US. I get it.
Rj isn't a world beater but he's consistently top 5, right? Id think a good chunk of these guys could run with him (only one way to find out though)
Max says that he rides a 450 better than a 250. I hope he gets a shot.
Davies next year, jo should go with him tbh, kitchen one more year? He could probably go next year as well actually. I think hymas one more (healthy) year he'd be ready. I think hymas might be one that surprises on the big bike. After that I dunno, Ryder D?
Will never top 5 in 450s
Back in the day Jason Thomas would race and qualify for the main in both 125s and 250s.
Makes this discussion a little soft, I would say
kitchen is a clear 450 rider for me. remember one of his first year at lorettas with big bikes. he did ride 450b limited and rode it amazingly well one of the fastest out there. and i feel he would be better on a 450 where he can ride it smooth and low in the rpm range.
Dude the everyone needs to ride like a fucking ballerina on a 450 needs to stop. Just because Jett and hunter are now the top dogs doesn’t mean that’s how everyone’s technique should look. When Deegan starts laying pipe we gonna then start being like everyone should ride like a fucking dogg? Tomac and stew would be a couple guys I can immediately think of that ride the piss out of the bike and had extremely successful careers. Sexton is closer to the laws style and his front end could let you know how that’s been.
MAYBE Jo and Davies. The rest, who the hell knows.
Aside from AC, no one has had multiple interrupted seasons in the 250 class and then gone on to have a successful 450 career. Jo and Davies are the only two that have been fairly safe/consistent.
We already know Jo has potential as a 450 rider; he showed it at MXdN last year.
None of them. They couldn’t handle Deegz on a 250 and he’s getting his ass handed to him on 450’s. Best thing they can do is stay put.
Pit Row
Cole Davies is the only sure thing in the 250 class. He will be a 450 contender through his career.
Then there are a couple of riders that might have the potential to be top 450 riders. Shimoda and Hymas if Hymas could stay healthy and gain some momentum but that is obviously a big if.
The rest will be midpack or 5th place riders at their best.
Jumping off topic a bit here but this made me think of some of the pros that would come to Hurricane Hills in PA for big races like the PA state championship and the Tucker Rocky series. Barry Carsten, Dag Boyesen and Tony Larusso would race both the 125 and 250 classes and have the most epic battles. Looked up to those guys so much back them, you could only imagine how shocked I was seeing them mid pack at my first National (Unadilla)
There is NOT one current 250 rider that belongs in 450s. Not a single one of them can put two races together, none.
Are we seeing a great bunch of 250 riders, or a bunch of head cases that can’t repeat their performance from week to week?
Exactly right. Davies included.
There is no such thing as the 450 class logjammin the 250 guys coming up. If they were better than the current 450 guys they’d have the ride and if there was a better guy on a 250 he’d have these current 250 guys rides. Otherwise they will stay put and continue to try to win a championship before getting a 450 ride.
All of them can race 450s successfully. This ain’t rocket science.
James hardly used the clutch, he rode nothing like tomac.
That’s the issue they are…
Every time we give a 250 rider a chance they are outperforming the older 450 guys.
Look at Marchbanks, RJ, and Jordon Smith.
Riders like Jo and Levi were consistently beating all 3, so it’s not hard to envision them slotting in next to them.
Honestly, when Justin Cooper was in the 250 class, they were also on par with him as well, so I’d imagine Jo and Levi would easily be top 5 / podium contenders (especially Jo outdoors) with Cole being a title guy.
He raced the 450 in 2020-2022. He had decent outdoor results, but he never cracked the top 10 in SX.
thts not really a fair comparison, look at somebody like chase ( outdoor wise ) , chase wasent even close to ever becoming a 250 outdoor champ & look at him now with 450 overall wins & podiums with 1 title basically surpassing everybody he raced against in the 250s of his draft class
How could I forget Carsten! Super nice dude, family guy, and a freaking warrior!!
That national must have been amazing!
This. Cole, period. Jo, Levi, and Hymas will do the same stuff on a 450 they're doing on a 250. Brilliance based on a good start and wild inconsistency in between. Too soon to tell with the new Star boys, Dudney, Wood, Minear. Too soon with Adam's. The dude is huge and you gotta think a 250 is already holding him back. Hes gotta be close to 190lbs and carrying 40lbs, even 50lbs, on some of these horse jockeys
Come on, Davies included??? Dudes second year, of course he hasn’t moved up yet. Problem is 250SX needs a salary cap. These guys make big bucks for racing half the series. Take that away and you would have more looking for a 450 ride
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