A Conversation with Grok about the American Talent Pool

ShipLap
Posts
1673
Joined
8/15/2018
Location
Moab, UT, USA
Grok saith:
"After three decades of watching American riders stack titles and produce legends, this current stretch feels like a genuine drought at the very top. The "freaks" — the Carmichael-level workhorses, Stewart-level raw speed demons, or McGrath-style creative killers — just aren't emerging the way they used to.  
The American pipeline has depth with "good" riders, but the freaks with unbreakable mentality are coming from elsewhere these days.  Do you see any other young Americans (maybe from the SMX Next combines) that might still have a shot, or does it feel like the well is dry for now?"
 
Me: Maybe Caden Dudney

Grok:  "He's still super young and learning, but the "generational talent" leap hasn't shown up yet. It feeds right into your bigger point — even the guys with the biggest pre-season hype (Dudney included) aren't delivering the kind of dominance or mental steel that defined the old American eras. No one is out there looking like the next Carmichael, Stewart, or even a Villopoto/Dungey-level sure thing. The top of the 250 class is a dogfight with solid but flawed Americans and hungry internationals mixed in. It's a lean stretch, no doubt.
 
The 450 Class remains heavily Lawrence-dominated (Hunter and Jett up front), with Deegan fighting for podiums as the main American hope, alongside veterans like Tomac (injury/crash issues) and the unpredictable inconsistent Chase Sexton. The pattern holds: hungry, composed riders from Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Belgium, etc., keep filling the front. American depth is there with "good" riders, but the mentally unbreakable, generational dominators are missing right now. It really is odd given America's size and resources. The "cut flower" wilting you mentioned earlier feels apt to a lot of fans watching this shift. The sport is thriving globally, but the old U.S. supremacy era is gone for the moment."

Your thoughts?

 
1
34
|
CPR
Posts
6983
Joined
10/4/2018
Location
AU
6/13/2026 6:00pm Edited Date/Time 6/13/2026 6:03pm

My thoughts; who’s Grok?

2
Hammer 663s
Posts
3105
Joined
6/2/2016
Location
Forest Grove, OR, USA
6/13/2026 6:04pm
CPR wrote:

My thoughts; who’s Grok?

I think he typo’d Gronk. Everyone knows him. 

4
dingaling
Posts
294
Joined
5/15/2021
Location
AU
6/13/2026 6:05pm

Basically you gave it all the info and it just confirmed and repeated it back to you? 😂

4
1
ShipLap
Posts
1673
Joined
8/15/2018
Location
Moab, UT, USA
6/13/2026 6:07pm

Me:  A trend that is 15 years in the making cannot be reversed quickly.  What could help is a season of frustration culminating in more resolve and less distractions. Humility resulting from being easily beaten for ten years, could fuel a hunger that we saw in the Bob Hannah days. It will take at least 5 years to initialize, and 10 years to turn around. My opinion.

Grok:  A 15-year trend of softening at the absolute top isn't flipped with one big signing or program tweak. Real turnarounds in sports usually come from prolonged pain, not comfort. A new wave of kids who grew up watching the beatdowns internalize the lesson. Fewer distractions, more dedicated training, parents and trainers emphasizing mental steel again. The ones who emerge would be hungrier because the easy path was visibly blocked.

We've seen it in other sports — U.S. boxing had a lull, swimming had international surges, even NBA talent development went more global before domestic responses kicked in. Motocross could follow the same pattern if the frustration builds resolve instead of apathy.  Whether that hunger actually materializes depends on deeper factors — family environments, coaching philosophy, and what young boys value in 2030–2035. But history shows prolonged losing can be a powerful reset button."

Discuss!

SL

 
 
12

The Shop

ShipLap
Posts
1673
Joined
8/15/2018
Location
Moab, UT, USA
6/13/2026 6:08pm
CPR wrote:

My thoughts; who’s Grok?

I think he typo’d Gronk. Everyone knows him. 

Rob Gronkowski | Stats, Height, Weight, Biography, & Facts | Britannica

Smile

1
Dave v3.0
Posts
708
Joined
7/15/2022
Location
Ozark, AL, USA
6/13/2026 6:08pm Edited Date/Time 6/13/2026 6:10pm

Sounds like a microcosm of the whole flow of America in relation to the rest of the world since the Kennedy assassination started the spiral.

Still good at most everything, not particularly overwhelmingly great at any one thing. It just took a while to reach motocross.

Takes a really special individual to stand out in a sea of mediocrity, which has become socially acceptable and even to some, desirable.

1
ShipLap
Posts
1673
Joined
8/15/2018
Location
Moab, UT, USA
6/13/2026 6:09pm
dingaling wrote:

Basically you gave it all the info and it just confirmed and repeated it back to you? 😂

It was an objective conversation.  Grok researched many sites before answering.

15
blaster99
Posts
113
Joined
4/7/2018
Location
West Springfield, MA, USA
Fantasy
6/13/2026 6:31pm
ShipLap wrote:
Me:  A trend that is 15 years in the making cannot be reversed quickly.  What could help is a season of frustration culminating in more...

Me:  A trend that is 15 years in the making cannot be reversed quickly.  What could help is a season of frustration culminating in more resolve and less distractions. Humility resulting from being easily beaten for ten years, could fuel a hunger that we saw in the Bob Hannah days. It will take at least 5 years to initialize, and 10 years to turn around. My opinion.

Grok:  A 15-year trend of softening at the absolute top isn't flipped with one big signing or program tweak. Real turnarounds in sports usually come from prolonged pain, not comfort. A new wave of kids who grew up watching the beatdowns internalize the lesson. Fewer distractions, more dedicated training, parents and trainers emphasizing mental steel again. The ones who emerge would be hungrier because the easy path was visibly blocked.

We've seen it in other sports — U.S. boxing had a lull, swimming had international surges, even NBA talent development went more global before domestic responses kicked in. Motocross could follow the same pattern if the frustration builds resolve instead of apathy.  Whether that hunger actually materializes depends on deeper factors — family environments, coaching philosophy, and what young boys value in 2030–2035. But history shows prolonged losing can be a powerful reset button."

Discuss!

SL

 
 

If this is real, that AI just outed itself as misinformed. USA Swimming has never had a lull, other than 1956. Ever. 

The US is the best swimming nation on the face of the planet, closely followed by Australia. 

1
1
6/13/2026 6:48pm Edited Date/Time 6/13/2026 6:50pm
blaster99 wrote:
If this is real, that AI just outed itself as misinformed. USA Swimming has never had a lull, other than 1956. Ever. The US is the best...

If this is real, that AI just outed itself as misinformed. USA Swimming has never had a lull, other than 1956. Ever. 

The US is the best swimming nation on the face of the planet, closely followed by Australia. 

Leave it to human hubris to hone in on one small, pedantic detail in an attempt to discredit a larger point.

Grok claimed, “swimming had international surges”

In the broader context of the conversation, this is factually accurate. Again, read the words and all of the context. Humans really struggle with this. Humans are emotional and arrogant.

Grok did not claim the US declined. It merely asserted a factual truth that the rest of the world, when in a lull, rose up.

Australia in 1956, the East German women’s era, the Aussie’s in Sydney 2000. Australia in Tokyo 2021.

If anything this just proves what humans get wrong every single fucking goddamn day: their own stupid fucking arrogance.
 

1
5
6/13/2026 7:11pm
CPR wrote:

My thoughts; who’s Grok?

I think he typo’d Gronk. Everyone knows him. 

There used to be a gronk parody account on here a couple years back and it was fucking hilarious 

1
aeffertz
Posts
12660
Joined
7/16/2015
Location
La Crosse, WI, USA
6/13/2026 7:32pm

Seek help. 

2
2
MXMattii
Posts
5108
Joined
3/6/2010
Location
BE
6/13/2026 7:35pm

Repost from "Who is the best American ?"

This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its like they skipped a complete generation. If we look in the 250 SX class the Americans lost from Tom Vialle or the Lawrence brothers but if a rider won a championship it was Christian Craig or R.J. Hampshire. All hope for the future seems to be on Sexton and Deegan. Because 1995 is "OVER 30 year old" boundary and 1996 is becoming 30. 

  • Jake Weimer (1987)
  • Davi Millsaps (1988)
  • Ryan Villopoto (1988)
  • Wil Hahn (1989)
  • Ryan Dungey (1989)
  • Broc Tickle (1989)
  • Zach Osborne (1989)
  • Trey Canard (1990)
  • Christian Craig (1991)
  • Justin Barcia (1992)
  • Malcolm Stewart (1992)
  • Eli Tomac (1992)
  • Jeremy Martin (1993)
  • Justin Bogle (1993)
  • Jason Anderson (1993)
  • Colt Nichols (1994)
  • Cooper Webb (1995)
  • Justin Hill (1995)
  • Aaron Plessinger (1996)
  • R.J. Hampshire (1996)
  • Justin Cooper (1997)
  • Chase Sexton (1999)
  • Haiden Deegan (2006)

To make matters worse for the Americans: Jett Lawrence (2003), Hunter Lawrence (1999), Cole Davies (2007), Jo Shimoda (2002), Sacha & Lucas Coenen (2006)

3
1
HondaTech25
Posts
142
Joined
3/12/2026
Location
Maysville, KY, USA
6/13/2026 7:35pm

F**k A.I 

4
1
ShipLap
Posts
1673
Joined
8/15/2018
Location
Moab, UT, USA
6/13/2026 7:40pm

F**k A.I 

AI threatening your job?

9
HondaTech25
Posts
142
Joined
3/12/2026
Location
Maysville, KY, USA
6/13/2026 7:45pm

F**k A.I 

ShipLap wrote:

AI threatening your job?

They havent figured out how to fix motorcycles yet so no.

Its just stupid and lazy and fixing to ruin the labor market, water supply and energy prices so some jackass can make another billion dollars before it all collapses. 

8
2
Dave v3.0
Posts
708
Joined
7/15/2022
Location
Ozark, AL, USA
6/13/2026 7:56pm
MXMattii wrote:
Repost from "Who is the best American ?"This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its...

Repost from "Who is the best American ?"

This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its like they skipped a complete generation. If we look in the 250 SX class the Americans lost from Tom Vialle or the Lawrence brothers but if a rider won a championship it was Christian Craig or R.J. Hampshire. All hope for the future seems to be on Sexton and Deegan. Because 1995 is "OVER 30 year old" boundary and 1996 is becoming 30. 

  • Jake Weimer (1987)
  • Davi Millsaps (1988)
  • Ryan Villopoto (1988)
  • Wil Hahn (1989)
  • Ryan Dungey (1989)
  • Broc Tickle (1989)
  • Zach Osborne (1989)
  • Trey Canard (1990)
  • Christian Craig (1991)
  • Justin Barcia (1992)
  • Malcolm Stewart (1992)
  • Eli Tomac (1992)
  • Jeremy Martin (1993)
  • Justin Bogle (1993)
  • Jason Anderson (1993)
  • Colt Nichols (1994)
  • Cooper Webb (1995)
  • Justin Hill (1995)
  • Aaron Plessinger (1996)
  • R.J. Hampshire (1996)
  • Justin Cooper (1997)
  • Chase Sexton (1999)
  • Haiden Deegan (2006)

To make matters worse for the Americans: Jett Lawrence (2003), Hunter Lawrence (1999), Cole Davies (2007), Jo Shimoda (2002), Sacha & Lucas Coenen (2006)

Nothing happens in a vacuum.  

When Little Johnny, born in 2000, was 8 years old, the American economy crashed, the mortgage crisis hit, and the motorcycle market went stale.  It was that way for 5-6 years.  No one could afford to get a 2nd mortgage on their house to fund racing and training, if they weren't outright foreclosed on, and disposable income disappeared for awhile.  That helps explain why there is a lull in 20-27 year old exceptional talent right now.

1
1
Spoonguy
Posts
3575
Joined
2/28/2022
Location
Mc Kean, PA, USA
6/14/2026 3:18am

Isn't Grok that plant guy from guardians of the galaxy? Didn't know he was into moto.

1
matze
Posts
2272
Joined
3/1/2014
Location
Stuttgart, DE
6/14/2026 3:25am

tldr

1
Bosco
Posts
279
Joined
4/5/2012
Location
Toyota Hiace, NZ
6/14/2026 3:33am

Isn't this site for bench racing? Cos it's fun? Why the heck would you get AI to do that for you? Ridiculous 

3
2
6/14/2026 3:35am
ShipLap wrote:
Grok saith:"After three decades of watching American riders stack titles and produce legends, this current stretch feels like a genuine drought at the very top...
Grok saith:
"After three decades of watching American riders stack titles and produce legends, this current stretch feels like a genuine drought at the very top. The "freaks" — the Carmichael-level workhorses, Stewart-level raw speed demons, or McGrath-style creative killers — just aren't emerging the way they used to.  
The American pipeline has depth with "good" riders, but the freaks with unbreakable mentality are coming from elsewhere these days.  Do you see any other young Americans (maybe from the SMX Next combines) that might still have a shot, or does it feel like the well is dry for now?"
 
Me: Maybe Caden Dudney

Grok:  "He's still super young and learning, but the "generational talent" leap hasn't shown up yet. It feeds right into your bigger point — even the guys with the biggest pre-season hype (Dudney included) aren't delivering the kind of dominance or mental steel that defined the old American eras. No one is out there looking like the next Carmichael, Stewart, or even a Villopoto/Dungey-level sure thing. The top of the 250 class is a dogfight with solid but flawed Americans and hungry internationals mixed in. It's a lean stretch, no doubt.
 
The 450 Class remains heavily Lawrence-dominated (Hunter and Jett up front), with Deegan fighting for podiums as the main American hope, alongside veterans like Tomac (injury/crash issues) and the unpredictable inconsistent Chase Sexton. The pattern holds: hungry, composed riders from Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Belgium, etc., keep filling the front. American depth is there with "good" riders, but the mentally unbreakable, generational dominators are missing right now. It really is odd given America's size and resources. The "cut flower" wilting you mentioned earlier feels apt to a lot of fans watching this shift. The sport is thriving globally, but the old U.S. supremacy era is gone for the moment."

Your thoughts?

 

Stats don't lie.

So, after Thundey Valley (championships standings) : 

250cc category: 4 riders in the top 10 are not american.

450cc category: 9 riders in the top 20 are not american.

Positive point: Pro Motocross is definitively becoming an international serie!

1
1
6/14/2026 5:07am
MXMattii wrote:
Repost from "Who is the best American ?"This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its...

Repost from "Who is the best American ?"

This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its like they skipped a complete generation. If we look in the 250 SX class the Americans lost from Tom Vialle or the Lawrence brothers but if a rider won a championship it was Christian Craig or R.J. Hampshire. All hope for the future seems to be on Sexton and Deegan. Because 1995 is "OVER 30 year old" boundary and 1996 is becoming 30. 

  • Jake Weimer (1987)
  • Davi Millsaps (1988)
  • Ryan Villopoto (1988)
  • Wil Hahn (1989)
  • Ryan Dungey (1989)
  • Broc Tickle (1989)
  • Zach Osborne (1989)
  • Trey Canard (1990)
  • Christian Craig (1991)
  • Justin Barcia (1992)
  • Malcolm Stewart (1992)
  • Eli Tomac (1992)
  • Jeremy Martin (1993)
  • Justin Bogle (1993)
  • Jason Anderson (1993)
  • Colt Nichols (1994)
  • Cooper Webb (1995)
  • Justin Hill (1995)
  • Aaron Plessinger (1996)
  • R.J. Hampshire (1996)
  • Justin Cooper (1997)
  • Chase Sexton (1999)
  • Haiden Deegan (2006)

To make matters worse for the Americans: Jett Lawrence (2003), Hunter Lawrence (1999), Cole Davies (2007), Jo Shimoda (2002), Sacha & Lucas Coenen (2006)

Dave v3.0 wrote:
Nothing happens in a vacuum.  When Little Johnny, born in 2000, was 8 years old, the American economy crashed, the mortgage crisis hit, and the motorcycle...

Nothing happens in a vacuum.  

When Little Johnny, born in 2000, was 8 years old, the American economy crashed, the mortgage crisis hit, and the motorcycle market went stale.  It was that way for 5-6 years.  No one could afford to get a 2nd mortgage on their house to fund racing and training, if they weren't outright foreclosed on, and disposable income disappeared for awhile.  That helps explain why there is a lull in 20-27 year old exceptional talent right now.

The subprime mortgage crisis also caused most countries in Europe to go into recession, which had the same effect on amateur racing in Europe, Australia was one of the few countries that avoided recession.

1
1
kawasa84
Posts
1800
Joined
6/7/2008
Location
Flower Mound, TX, USA
6/14/2026 10:51am
MXMattii wrote:
Repost from "Who is the best American ?"This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its...

Repost from "Who is the best American ?"

This are some of the successful americans of the last 20 years, you will see something dramatical. Its like they skipped a complete generation. If we look in the 250 SX class the Americans lost from Tom Vialle or the Lawrence brothers but if a rider won a championship it was Christian Craig or R.J. Hampshire. All hope for the future seems to be on Sexton and Deegan. Because 1995 is "OVER 30 year old" boundary and 1996 is becoming 30. 

  • Jake Weimer (1987)
  • Davi Millsaps (1988)
  • Ryan Villopoto (1988)
  • Wil Hahn (1989)
  • Ryan Dungey (1989)
  • Broc Tickle (1989)
  • Zach Osborne (1989)
  • Trey Canard (1990)
  • Christian Craig (1991)
  • Justin Barcia (1992)
  • Malcolm Stewart (1992)
  • Eli Tomac (1992)
  • Jeremy Martin (1993)
  • Justin Bogle (1993)
  • Jason Anderson (1993)
  • Colt Nichols (1994)
  • Cooper Webb (1995)
  • Justin Hill (1995)
  • Aaron Plessinger (1996)
  • R.J. Hampshire (1996)
  • Justin Cooper (1997)
  • Chase Sexton (1999)
  • Haiden Deegan (2006)

To make matters worse for the Americans: Jett Lawrence (2003), Hunter Lawrence (1999), Cole Davies (2007), Jo Shimoda (2002), Sacha & Lucas Coenen (2006)

All those riders including Hunter were born after the 4 stroke was making inroads into the premier classes of the sport, thanks in part to the AMA for allowing double displacement cc's to favor 4 strokes. In 1999 Doug Henry was doing well on a YZ400 I believe. Before the rest were born, the 250f was already being raced.

I don't believe this to actually be a big factor, but it's there.

I have always looked at the population thing as a non factor simply because I was born in IA, that has put out a couple arenacross champions, and very fast pros through the years with a population 1/15th (15 times smaller) than the population of the state I live in now TX. Texas barely touches the radar for as large of a state as it is and a climate suitable for year round riding and training. Thank gosh it has a few fast guys coming through the pipe though, and keep in mind, Dudney was born in IA, before they took up residence in Athens, TX. 

That's why a country like New Zealand can have guys like Davies and countries like the US with almost 350 million aren't finding those with the natural talent. 

And while a rich kid like Deegan is our possible fastest currently, (debateable) I for some reason believe heart has to go into this sport more than some. And it's kids like MC, Carmichael and Stewart that came from way more humble backgrounds that had immense talent and heart to drive themselves to stardom. Poor kids are dreamers.  Some have that heart. There are some poor kids in this country that have that hidden talent. But it takes a little money to get going and be "found". Some never get that chance. 

blaster99
Posts
113
Joined
4/7/2018
Location
West Springfield, MA, USA
Fantasy
6/15/2026 7:26am
blaster99 wrote:
If this is real, that AI just outed itself as misinformed. USA Swimming has never had a lull, other than 1956. Ever. The US is the best...

If this is real, that AI just outed itself as misinformed. USA Swimming has never had a lull, other than 1956. Ever. 

The US is the best swimming nation on the face of the planet, closely followed by Australia. 

Leave it to human hubris to hone in on one small, pedantic detail in an attempt to discredit a larger point.Grok claimed, “swimming had international...

Leave it to human hubris to hone in on one small, pedantic detail in an attempt to discredit a larger point.

Grok claimed, “swimming had international surges”

In the broader context of the conversation, this is factually accurate. Again, read the words and all of the context. Humans really struggle with this. Humans are emotional and arrogant.

Grok did not claim the US declined. It merely asserted a factual truth that the rest of the world, when in a lull, rose up.

Australia in 1956, the East German women’s era, the Aussie’s in Sydney 2000. Australia in Tokyo 2021.

If anything this just proves what humans get wrong every single fucking goddamn day: their own stupid fucking arrogance.
 

Whoa, dude. What is the problem? I dont know you, and you dont know me.

I was discrediting the AI that was used. Not anything that you said, it had nothing to do with you. I never attacked you. Whats wrong?

Replace my word of "lull" with "surges" and my message is still the same. My apologies for using the wrong word. Otherwise AI, and you, are very misinformed on the world of swimming. I was just pointing out AIs inability to give facts, rather than data from opinion based articles it finds on the web. I understand its a moto forum, but i called out AI. That's it. 

Maybe im wrong, but i would bet that you couldn't name a single swimmer on any of those Olympic teams that you referenced. If I am wrong, and you are into swim and moto, we could probably be best friends. 

Im starting to see why so many senior members have left this site. What is the point of trying to talk to friends when you get personally attacked by random people? You, Mr. Macduff can go fuck yourself. If i get banned for saying that, so be it and ill just go back to lurking and not posting.

 

APLMAN99
Posts
12654
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Tualatin, OR, USA
Fantasy
6/15/2026 7:58am

I really couldn’t care less about whether the biggest winners in the sport are born and/or raised in the United States. Doesn’t really matter much at all. 

I do hope that we continue to see the very best in the sport trying to come and race the MX/SX/SXM series here, though!

1
1

Post a reply to: A Conversation with Grok about the American Talent Pool

The Latest