Roczen vs Lawrence, who wins and why?

Blake522
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5/8/2026 8:13am

For the most part, Hunter does seem to be slightly quicker on the hard pack. BUT, in quailifying session 2 last week in Denver, Kenny did put a heater & go to the top of the board. Only .200 or .300 somewhere in there, but I’d say he can push on hard pack if he NEEDS to, and this weekend… he’ll need to, Hunter will probably start ahead of Ken, if he does, Kenny 100% running him down making a pass happen… just hope he can put in some serious sprint laps & make Hunter push that little extra where the Honda doesn’t work so well for Hunter(right now) and make little mistakes that’ll cost Hunter to not catch up… like miss a rythem section, lose time in the whoops etc. or maybe even allow another rider in between them.

rstaichi
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5/8/2026 8:33am

Well isn’t it the same kinda track and dirt from last weekend? I’d have to say Hunter because he was gone last weekend.

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FreshTopEnd
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5/8/2026 8:42am
ando wrote:
Some head to head stats for the season to date:Number of starts this year (counting all Triple Crown races) = 22Number of full length mains =...

Some head to head stats for the season to date:

Number of starts this year (counting all Triple Crown races) = 22
Number of full length mains = 13

They have five event wins each, and seven race wins each.

Hunter number of Top 5 starts - 18 (82%)
Hunter number of Top 10 starts - 22 (100%)
Hunter average start position - 3.18

Ken number of Top 5 starts - 16 (73%)
Ken number of Top 10 starts - 19 (86%)
Ken average start position - 4.91

When they start in the top 5:

Hunter's average position gain is 0.05.
Ken's average position gain is 0.19

They have each caught and passed the other 3 times during the season.

Hunter has finished ahead of Ken 13 times.
Ken has finished ahead of Hunter 9 times.

In full length mains:

Hunter has finished ahead of Ken 8 times.
Ken has finished ahead of Hunter 5 times.

Also in full length mains they have only finished within 10 seconds of each other 3 times

Sooo . . . you're saying Hunter has a shot?  😇

Totally get the Aussie pride.

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5/8/2026 8:45am
Blake522 wrote:
For the most part, Hunter does seem to be slightly quicker on the hard pack. BUT, in quailifying session 2 last week in Denver, Kenny did...

For the most part, Hunter does seem to be slightly quicker on the hard pack. BUT, in quailifying session 2 last week in Denver, Kenny did put a heater & go to the top of the board. Only .200 or .300 somewhere in there, but I’d say he can push on hard pack if he NEEDS to, and this weekend… he’ll need to, Hunter will probably start ahead of Ken, if he does, Kenny 100% running him down making a pass happen… just hope he can put in some serious sprint laps & make Hunter push that little extra where the Honda doesn’t work so well for Hunter(right now) and make little mistakes that’ll cost Hunter to not catch up… like miss a rythem section, lose time in the whoops etc. or maybe even allow another rider in between them.

Ken was pretty fast in qualifying at Denver but he was the only guy diving into the end of the scoring time loop and rolling the finish.  He went from 10th to 5th in Q1 when he did it, and went to the top after doing it again in Q2.  Not sure how much time it was worth but I think 1/2 second is probably a fair estimate and that would have put him 5th in Q2 if he had completed the lap normally.  I know Ken fans will chastise me for saying this but it's true, they can go back and watch if they would like to.  Totally legal to do it, just not a good number to use for comparison since nobody else was gaming it like he was.

This weekend we won't have to deal with that issue because the end of the time loop isn't right out of a corner. 

3

The Shop

Not hillbilly
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5/8/2026 9:52am

Qualifying P2 is just as good as P1, since you’ll still get first gate pic in the second heat. There are no championship points attached so there’s really no need to break your neck for that one position improvement late in the session.

1
Blake522
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5/8/2026 10:24am
Blake522 wrote:
For the most part, Hunter does seem to be slightly quicker on the hard pack. BUT, in quailifying session 2 last week in Denver, Kenny did...

For the most part, Hunter does seem to be slightly quicker on the hard pack. BUT, in quailifying session 2 last week in Denver, Kenny did put a heater & go to the top of the board. Only .200 or .300 somewhere in there, but I’d say he can push on hard pack if he NEEDS to, and this weekend… he’ll need to, Hunter will probably start ahead of Ken, if he does, Kenny 100% running him down making a pass happen… just hope he can put in some serious sprint laps & make Hunter push that little extra where the Honda doesn’t work so well for Hunter(right now) and make little mistakes that’ll cost Hunter to not catch up… like miss a rythem section, lose time in the whoops etc. or maybe even allow another rider in between them.

TheMilkman wrote:
Ken was pretty fast in qualifying at Denver but he was the only guy diving into the end of the scoring time loop and rolling the...

Ken was pretty fast in qualifying at Denver but he was the only guy diving into the end of the scoring time loop and rolling the finish.  He went from 10th to 5th in Q1 when he did it, and went to the top after doing it again in Q2.  Not sure how much time it was worth but I think 1/2 second is probably a fair estimate and that would have put him 5th in Q2 if he had completed the lap normally.  I know Ken fans will chastise me for saying this but it's true, they can go back and watch if they would like to.  Totally legal to do it, just not a good number to use for comparison since nobody else was gaming it like he was.

This weekend we won't have to deal with that issue because the end of the time loop isn't right out of a corner. 

Ahhh gotcha. Yeah true.

Cycle Sport
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New Bern, NC US
5/8/2026 10:38am

I want Kenny, but somehow I think Zac Osborne is going to win it all.

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1
2stroked
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5/8/2026 10:42am

Kenny is older, wiser, way more experienced. Plus he is riding momentum which is huge.

Hunter has an immense amount of pressure on him, both self inflicted and also because once his brother is back he knows he can't beat him.

Both are headstrong and handle pressure well.

For me it comes down to riding style and the track. Its going to be dry, hard packed, and square edged. Kenny hasnt done as well as Hunter on those types of tracks. Denver really showed this. I think hunter has the edge here, and he is going to sprint out front early even if Kenny holeshots. Hunter will pass Kenny within the first couple of laps, then try to run away and hide.

All year Kenny has been ok protecting a podium spot in those situations and he takes it down a notch. It'll be interesting to see if Kenny responds aggressively to pass hunter back, close the door, and try to sprint away himself. If Kenny wants to beat hunter, he has to be flawless.

Im rooting for Kenny, but if I was betting Id say hunter edges him out.

Lets just hope mitchell harrison and vince friese stay in their lane and dont ruin this race.

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SoCalMX70
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5/8/2026 11:33am

Just some more thoughts as I read through the additional comments...

I'm not fully convinced on the calm, cool, and collected demeanor of either guy. I don't see either of them as on the level of say, a Chad Reed type, when it comes to having ice in their veins. If things get close and dicey, it's tough to say how either Hunter or Kenny will handle it.

From a pure technical and observational perspective, I feel like Kenny's bike has more upside. Yes, Hunter has been a little better in hard pack, but he often looks like he is right at the limits of what his bike can handle, especially whoops. Both Jett and Hunter have looked like they are having to use a lot of "extra" technique to keep their Honda's in line in the whoops in recent years.

As someone else put it, Hunter's bike looks "edgy". It makes sense. I owned a recent model CRF and it had razor sharp handling, but it also randomly scared me with how it would step out at times in rougher sections of the track. Not that my skill or bike was comparable, but it certainly gave me an idea of the nature of the chassis.

For Kenny, I feel like if he pushes it, his bike will be far more forgiving. But, he absolutely must push it. There's no next week.

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KurtJ99
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5/8/2026 11:51am
2stroked wrote:
Kenny is older, wiser, way more experienced. Plus he is riding momentum which is huge.Hunter has an immense amount of pressure on him, both self inflicted...

Kenny is older, wiser, way more experienced. Plus he is riding momentum which is huge.

Hunter has an immense amount of pressure on him, both self inflicted and also because once his brother is back he knows he can't beat him.

Both are headstrong and handle pressure well.

For me it comes down to riding style and the track. Its going to be dry, hard packed, and square edged. Kenny hasnt done as well as Hunter on those types of tracks. Denver really showed this. I think hunter has the edge here, and he is going to sprint out front early even if Kenny holeshots. Hunter will pass Kenny within the first couple of laps, then try to run away and hide.

All year Kenny has been ok protecting a podium spot in those situations and he takes it down a notch. It'll be interesting to see if Kenny responds aggressively to pass hunter back, close the door, and try to sprint away himself. If Kenny wants to beat hunter, he has to be flawless.

Im rooting for Kenny, but if I was betting Id say hunter edges him out.

Lets just hope mitchell harrison and vince friese stay in their lane and dont ruin this race.

once his brother is back he knows he can't beat him.

I'm not sure about that anymore - Hunter has improved so much I'm not taking that for granted. 

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Gravel
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5/8/2026 1:46pm
nubeman71 wrote:
I really want Kenny to win so I picked Hunter as my fantasy pick to win. More often than not the rider I pick to win...

I really want Kenny to win so I picked Hunter as my fantasy pick to win. More often than not the rider I pick to win doesn't win.

Same!

1
Gmyersdork
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5/8/2026 2:00pm

Feld wins, they write the script. On that note, Kenny gets title, better storyline 

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Rab
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5/8/2026 2:37pm

After watching the press day videos of the whoops, I got Kenny for the title. 

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Motodragon
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5/8/2026 2:46pm

Hunter washes out

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Falcon
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5/8/2026 2:55pm

Big Whoops in SLC. Just sayin'. 

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OleTex2
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5/8/2026 3:10pm
ML512 wrote:
We could just do a poll, but I love bench racing too much. Tell me which guy will win the title Saturday evening in Salt Lake...

We could just do a poll, but I love bench racing too much. Tell me which guy will win the title Saturday evening in Salt Lake City and why you think they'll take it over the other guy?

I think Roczen will win, but it will be close. Hunta will fight very hard but in the end, experience wins. 

OleTex2
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5/8/2026 3:16pm
nubeman71 wrote:
I really want Kenny to win so I picked Hunter as my fantasy pick to win. More often than not the rider I pick to win...

I really want Kenny to win so I picked Hunter as my fantasy pick to win. More often than not the rider I pick to win doesn't win.

Gravel wrote:

Same!

lol I had Harrison and Friese on my team last week. They crashed into each other in the LCQ. 

1
Mr. G
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5/8/2026 3:23pm

As usual I'm hoping Bob Hannah wins. I should probably stop doing that by now. 

2
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5/8/2026 3:49pm
Rab wrote:
After watching the press day videos of the whoops, I got Kenny for the title. 

After watching the press day videos of the whoops, I got Kenny for the title. 

I agree, those whoops are gonna help KR.

1
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Wandell
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5/8/2026 6:39pm
Moto Nomad wrote:

Kenny has nerves of steel while Hunter has flailed at times, so I say #94.

AGREED,

 

1
4
5/8/2026 8:28pm

Realistically, who ever gets the better start will win, and going by past performances thats still 50 / 50.

2
CPR
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5/8/2026 9:16pm

Imagine how exciting it’ll be if they start 1-2, let’s hope for that.

1
5/8/2026 9:18pm

Kenny because we all want him to!!!!


Hunter because he’s on the way up 

Hcallz5
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5/8/2026 9:27pm

Lappers will fuck somebody over with 48 second lap times. 

ML512
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5/8/2026 9:32pm
Hcallz5 wrote:

Lappers will fuck somebody over with 48 second lap times. 

If there was ever a weekend to blackflag people for just being too slow...

6
jps256
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5/8/2026 11:34pm

I want Hunter to win bad. I think we see Tomac play a factor i have a feeling hes going to ride well and get between the 96 and 94.

1
1
ando
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5/9/2026 12:47am
jps256 wrote:
I want Hunter to win bad. I think we see Tomac play a factor i have a feeling hes going to ride well and get between...

I want Hunter to win bad. I think we see Tomac play a factor i have a feeling hes going to ride well and get between the 96 and 94.

Irrelevant.  It’s all decided on which order Ken and Hunter finish, regardless of where they finish.

1
jps256
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5/9/2026 2:33am
jps256 wrote:
I want Hunter to win bad. I think we see Tomac play a factor i have a feeling hes going to ride well and get between...

I want Hunter to win bad. I think we see Tomac play a factor i have a feeling hes going to ride well and get between the 96 and 94.

ando wrote:

Irrelevant.  It’s all decided on which order Ken and Hunter finish, regardless of where they finish.

not irrelevant if it keeps a rider from within striking distance

1
johnk408
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5/9/2026 5:09am

Maybe someone said this, but I didn’t read all 4 pages: if I’m Hunter and in front, I’m definitely doing some brake checks. Wouldn’t be anything dirty, just trying to get ken to stall the bike and have to try and kick it to life.

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