All Time 450 MX Wins List if Carmichael Never Raced

Sully
Posts
9187
Joined
8/24/2006
Location
JP
6/5/2025 11:38pm

But, why? 

Carmichael did race…. The desire to calculate this kind of thing is just weird. 

Because it's a fun little thought experiment. If you think it's weird, don't create a data base of your own. OP obviously likes this kind of stuff, so he made one, and it seems far more people appreciate his work than don't. 

7
6/6/2025 12:14am

Other riders may have been motivated to push a little harder, if RC wasn’t there. The number 2 rider would not have been nearly as dominant.

CPR
Posts
6618
Joined
10/4/2018
Location
AU
6/6/2025 2:27am Edited Date/Time 6/6/2025 2:28am

Reedy said out loud that RC’s beat downs made him hate outdoors, hence why he didn’t come back to MX for a couple of years after Ricky’s retirement. But looking at the stats, it’s a wonder Kdub didn’t feel the same way. It had to be frustrating as hell lining up against the GOAT.

3
6/6/2025 3:40am
Hannah and Johnson might have something to say about this if it weren't for untimely injuries. Did you see the stat last week where Eli is...

Hannah and Johnson might have something to say about this if it weren't for untimely injuries. Did you see the stat last week where Eli is just now tied with RJ for moto wins outdoors. Hannah almost lost his leg and then came back to crappy equipment when Yamaha redesigned the bike in his absence. 

TG130 wrote:
Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he...

Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he was quite 100% along with the crappy bike thing. They also ran less races back then too.

 

RJ too. The wrist injury pretty much ended his career in his prime as well.

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time. He would be, hey that's Stanton, he finished 2nd a lot to 13x champion Rick Johnson. 

4

The Shop

6/6/2025 3:44am

But, why? 

Carmichael did race…. The desire to calculate this kind of thing is just weird. 

You seem like a fun guy

3
3
kawasa84
Posts
1718
Joined
6/7/2008
Location
Flower Mound, TX US
6/6/2025 3:57am Edited Date/Time 6/6/2025 3:59am
CPR wrote:
Reedy said out loud that RC’s beat downs made him hate outdoors, hence why he didn’t come back to MX for a couple of years after...

Reedy said out loud that RC’s beat downs made him hate outdoors, hence why he didn’t come back to MX for a couple of years after Ricky’s retirement. But looking at the stats, it’s a wonder Kdub didn’t feel the same way. It had to be frustrating as hell lining up against the GOAT.

When Swap was editor of Transworld Motocross magazine, he did an in depth interview with KDub at his place in Mississippi in those years. Had a picture of his plane and one of him piloting it in the air over Mississippi. Kevin stated that flying gave him perspective and peace when away from the races. I'll bet he had to log a lot of hours on that plane in those years to keep his sanity 🤣

This was meant to quote KDubs losses to RC, not Reeds, but you get the gist!!

4
zookrider62!
Posts
6825
Joined
12/22/2008
Location
Plano, TX US
6/6/2025 4:37am

This was a cool idea. Since our sport seems to get dominated by one rider all the time, it would be neat to go back through the records, and remove the champion (mc,Rc,rv,rd) to determine the greatest 2nd place rider of all time

1
1
Bigshow
Posts
274
Joined
2/27/2011
Location
Jerusalem, OH US
6/6/2025 5:50am

This is neat.

Now do the King and super cross. 

5
1
6/6/2025 5:56am
Bigshow wrote:

This is neat.

Now do the King and super cross. 

That would be amazing. 

1
JoeyNovice
Posts
109
Joined
11/23/2019
Location
Toledo, OH US
6/6/2025 6:07am
Bigshow wrote:

This is neat.

Now do the King and super cross. 

Great idea, I'll start another thread for that soon.

8
mimafia
Posts
328
Joined
5/17/2013
Location
Grand Rapids, MI US
6/6/2025 7:41am

This is from We Went Fast FB page...

Moto win %25 0.jpg?VersionId=OWa.tHO5cdicfmPSJ5slvge7w1h
1
1
DF313
Posts
697
Joined
6/17/2016
Location
Ogden, UT US
6/6/2025 7:47am Edited Date/Time 6/6/2025 7:48am

I made a similar post about how if Ricky didn't exist Chad Reed would be very close to McGrath's SX win record.  I think it's interesting and cool to talk about this type of stuff.  My post was not well received though. 

It's crazy how many times Chad was runner up to either Ricky or James.  Not that he didn't win a lot himself, but man, he got so many 2nd place finishes!

https://www.vitalmx.com/forums/Moto-Related,20/IFs-BUTs-Could-somebody-…

4
PRM31
Posts
3485
Joined
8/7/2009
Location
Northern, VA US
Fantasy
6/6/2025 8:13am

Cool to think about. What happens to the SX records if McGrath doesn't race?!

6/6/2025 9:26am Edited Date/Time 6/6/2025 9:26am
mxaniac wrote:

Win % would be interesting. 

JoeyNovice wrote:
Here is the table from the original post but added adjusted and actual win percentages. I'll also attach the top ten best win percentages of all...
image 1706

Here is the table from the original post but added adjusted and actual win percentages. I'll also attach the top ten best win percentages of all time for reference. I built and maintain my own database that houses all the mx and sx results and stats and post a lot on my instagram and twitter @smxmuse!

image 1707.png?VersionId=YRrdDI228YPQyowsQyQ

Jett at 18 Entries, RV at 26... So by the end of this year's, if Jett makes all the rounds, he'll have raced as many 450 Nationals as RV? That's crazy to think of, it feels like he's just starting his 450 career.

6/6/2025 9:55am

But, why? 

Carmichael did race…. The desire to calculate this kind of thing is just weird. 

You seem like a fun guy

This is fun to you? Blimey… 

At what point does this hypothetical nonsense become ‘not fun’? 
 

What is the point of calculating alternative scenarios or outcomes that never happened? 
nothing can change it, nothing is ever going to be different to what it already is. 
Fuck man, I don’t get it. 🤯


 

14
6/6/2025 9:57am

Next up: 

We want to know how the record books change if Mike Larocco had never scored a 4th place. 

Yeah…. Interesting… I can barely contain myself with excitement on this one!🤣

12
Park Boys
Posts
3811
Joined
3/23/2012
Location
MH US
6/6/2025 12:00pm Edited Date/Time 6/6/2025 12:01pm
Hannah and Johnson might have something to say about this if it weren't for untimely injuries. Did you see the stat last week where Eli is...

Hannah and Johnson might have something to say about this if it weren't for untimely injuries. Did you see the stat last week where Eli is just now tied with RJ for moto wins outdoors. Hannah almost lost his leg and then came back to crappy equipment when Yamaha redesigned the bike in his absence. 

TG130 wrote:
Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he...

Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he was quite 100% along with the crappy bike thing. They also ran less races back then too.

 

RJ too. The wrist injury pretty much ended his career in his prime as well.

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time...

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time. He would be, hey that's Stanton, he finished 2nd a lot to 13x champion Rick Johnson. 

100 percent, the Stanton, JMB, Bradshaw era started when RJ was landed on at Gainesville 89. 

1
6/6/2025 12:32pm
mxaniac wrote:

Win % would be interesting. 

JoeyNovice wrote:
Here is the table from the original post but added adjusted and actual win percentages. I'll also attach the top ten best win percentages of all...
image 1706

Here is the table from the original post but added adjusted and actual win percentages. I'll also attach the top ten best win percentages of all time for reference. I built and maintain my own database that houses all the mx and sx results and stats and post a lot on my instagram and twitter @smxmuse!

image 1707.png?VersionId=YRrdDI228YPQyowsQyQ
Dan541 wrote:
Jett at 18 Entries, RV at 26... So by the end of this year's, if Jett makes all the rounds, he'll have raced as many 450...

Jett at 18 Entries, RV at 26... So by the end of this year's, if Jett makes all the rounds, he'll have raced as many 450 Nationals as RV? That's crazy to think of, it feels like he's just starting his 450 career.

When you think about it all RV raced was 2 full seasons, '11 and '13. He won GH in '09 and apparently went 16-38 at Hangtown when he got hurt? My memory is failing me because I remember him being hurt and not even starting Hangtown

6/6/2025 12:35pm
TG130 wrote:
Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he...

Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he was quite 100% along with the crappy bike thing. They also ran less races back then too.

 

RJ too. The wrist injury pretty much ended his career in his prime as well.

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time...

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time. He would be, hey that's Stanton, he finished 2nd a lot to 13x champion Rick Johnson. 

Park Boys wrote:

100 percent, the Stanton, JMB, Bradshaw era started when RJ was landed on at Gainesville 89. 

I always appreciate your input and knowledge on motocross. You seem like a guy like me who bleeds mx. As far as sx goes, I'm more a casual fan

Bigshow
Posts
274
Joined
2/27/2011
Location
Jerusalem, OH US
6/6/2025 1:58pm
TG130 wrote:
Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he...

Yeah, Hannah missed the entire 1980 season when he was in his absolute prime and when he did come back in 81, I don't think he was quite 100% along with the crappy bike thing. They also ran less races back then too.

 

RJ too. The wrist injury pretty much ended his career in his prime as well.

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time...

RJ was 25! Let that sink in. In his PRIME. I have a feeling if the he never got hurt Jeff Stanton wouldnt be called 6-time. He would be, hey that's Stanton, he finished 2nd a lot to 13x champion Rick Johnson. 

Park Boys wrote:

100 percent, the Stanton, JMB, Bradshaw era started when RJ was landed on at Gainesville 89. 

On that count would McGrath be the King if RJ was not hurt. RJ would only been 28/29 for 93 SX. Does McGrath get the factory Honda ride? Would Bayle be the 91 SX champ? The way RJ was riding when he got hurt, I do not believe so. I feel RJ would be the King of SX. 

Titan1
Posts
9407
Joined
2/3/2010
Location
Lehi, UT US
6/6/2025 5:41pm
Next up: We want to know how the record books change if Mike Larocco had never scored a 4th place. Yeah…. Interesting… I can barely contain myself with...

Next up: 

We want to know how the record books change if Mike Larocco had never scored a 4th place. 

Yeah…. Interesting… I can barely contain myself with excitement on this one!🤣

Yeah, bench racing…what a lame thing to do…moto guys never do that. It’s stupid and a waste of time…

4
3
6/6/2025 8:36pm

That would be amazing. 

I did one for supercross during covid when I was bored at home, without Ricky, Chad and James both had more wins than Jeremy, I’d love to see this list without MC, that would be fun

1
USA
Posts
2536
Joined
9/4/2016
Location
Richmond, TX US
Fantasy
6/7/2025 3:15pm
mxaniac wrote:

Win % would be interesting. 

JoeyNovice wrote:
Here is the table from the original post but added adjusted and actual win percentages. I'll also attach the top ten best win percentages of all...
image 1706

Here is the table from the original post but added adjusted and actual win percentages. I'll also attach the top ten best win percentages of all time for reference. I built and maintain my own database that houses all the mx and sx results and stats and post a lot on my instagram and twitter @smxmuse!

image 1707.png?VersionId=YRrdDI228YPQyowsQyQ

Jeffrey Herlings has 100% win percentage

USA
Posts
2536
Joined
9/4/2016
Location
Richmond, TX US
Fantasy
6/7/2025 3:21pm

But, why? 

Carmichael did race…. The desire to calculate this kind of thing is just weird. 

You seem like a fun guy

This is fun to you? Blimey… At what point does this hypothetical nonsense become ‘not fun’?  What is the point of calculating alternative scenarios or outcomes that never...

This is fun to you? Blimey… 

At what point does this hypothetical nonsense become ‘not fun’? 
 

What is the point of calculating alternative scenarios or outcomes that never happened? 
nothing can change it, nothing is ever going to be different to what it already is. 
Fuck man, I don’t get it. 🤯


 

It becomes not fun when one person like you enters the chat. Not sure why this bothers you so much, but I think its hilarious that it does. 

3
sumdood
Posts
8649
Joined
3/11/2013
Location
San Clemente, CA US
Fantasy
6/7/2025 10:09pm

Hey stats guys, after today I was wondering how many guys have passed Jett since he's been on a 450 ?  Just passed him period, doesn't matter if it stuck or not, who's passed him and came out clearly ahead, even if it was only for a short time ?  AP today, and ? Eli, Chase ?  I don't remember him getting passed very often was just curious

CPR
Posts
6618
Joined
10/4/2018
Location
AU
6/7/2025 10:30pm
sumdood wrote:
Hey stats guys, after today I was wondering how many guys have passed Jett since he's been on a 450 ?  Just passed him period, doesn't...

Hey stats guys, after today I was wondering how many guys have passed Jett since he's been on a 450 ?  Just passed him period, doesn't matter if it stuck or not, who's passed him and came out clearly ahead, even if it was only for a short time ?  AP today, and ? Eli, Chase ?  I don't remember him getting passed very often was just curious

Add in Roczen.

6/7/2025 10:47pm
sumdood wrote:
Hey stats guys, after today I was wondering how many guys have passed Jett since he's been on a 450 ?  Just passed him period, doesn't...

Hey stats guys, after today I was wondering how many guys have passed Jett since he's been on a 450 ?  Just passed him period, doesn't matter if it stuck or not, who's passed him and came out clearly ahead, even if it was only for a short time ?  AP today, and ? Eli, Chase ?  I don't remember him getting passed very often was just curious

I remember Chase passing him at Southwick last year, Aaron yersteday, Tim at MXON 2024 and also Kenny in 2023 at High Point but not sure that counts as Jett went down.

2
6/7/2025 11:39pm

You seem like a fun guy

This is fun to you? Blimey… At what point does this hypothetical nonsense become ‘not fun’?  What is the point of calculating alternative scenarios or outcomes that never...

This is fun to you? Blimey… 

At what point does this hypothetical nonsense become ‘not fun’? 
 

What is the point of calculating alternative scenarios or outcomes that never happened? 
nothing can change it, nothing is ever going to be different to what it already is. 
Fuck man, I don’t get it. 🤯


 

USA wrote:
It becomes not fun when one person like you enters the chat. Not sure why this bothers you so much, but I think its hilarious that...

It becomes not fun when one person like you enters the chat. Not sure why this bothers you so much, but I think its hilarious that it does. 

I hear you. That’s fair. 

I bet you were one of the guys who wanted to send the ‘doping’ thread to the Dumbgeon though., 

5
steveloyer
Posts
256
Joined
11/29/2022
Location
Palmer, AK US
6/8/2025 5:03am

Wow finally a really cool forum post. 

Thanks, this was cool

1

Post a reply to: All Time 450 MX Wins List if Carmichael Never Raced

The Latest