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You make it abundantly clear it does not matter what I think. I am curious why you want to know.
I wanted to see if you actually wanted to have a conversation.
@MxAddic when someone starts talking about Stark
It's a tough job trying to spin having bikes available on dealers floors like it's a bad thing (especially after so much moaning that bikes will never be available) but somebody got to do it man
Anyway it's hard to come by with real world numbers and even harder to get sales by make and model. Last reliable and detailed data I've found was for Australia 2020 (by models) and 2022 (global). 42 000 off-road bikes annual sales in AUS (similar for both years), of which 6 000 were MX, most sold MX bike was YZF250R, with about 800 annual sales, closely followed by YZF450R. That is 13% MX market share for the most sold MX model (in Australia in 2020).
https://www.mcnews.com.au/off-road-motorcycles-sales-figures/
If one assumes a global MX market around 80 000 annual sales (meaning AUS accounts for 7.5% of global MX sales) and a generous 15-20% market share for the most sold bike, that would be 12 000 - 16 000 to be the most sold MX bike in the world.
In my opinion, Stark selling about 3 000 bikes over 6 months in their first year is not bad at all. Now that most pre-orders outside the US have been delivered, and now that they have scaled up production capacity over 10 000 bikes a year, it will be interesting to see if they can sell anywhere close to that capacity in their first full year.
MX is such a niche market that you don't need crazy numbers to become a key player. If Stark can sell 1 000 Vargs in AUS, 83 bikes/month, they'd be top of the charts!
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I think an issue is that electric MX'ers aren't able to maintain that year-over-year. They're so unique that the majority that are going to buy them, dump their load the first year, then there's nobody left after that. Not literally of course, but I think it tapers off much faster than with most other products. Those that are are going to buy them, do, then you need more waves of new buyers in the following years and they're just not there.
It tough for a manufacturer because you have to be a big proper manufacturer in order to meet that initial demand, but then you can't be that big proper manufacturer after that, because it's way too expensive. I think the answer is something that a salesman would never do, which is to drastically limit annual production. Yes you will lose sales from initial excitement and yes you will lose to some other manufacturer when they eventually popup, but that's probably the tradeoff that needs to be made in the long run and intentionally being unable to meet demand does a fantastic job of generating interest in itself.
Agreed that would make sense, if their goal was to stay in the niche
And yeah, the hard question is what happens once all the early adopters get their bike. Though there appears to be a demographic of MXers with too much money who like to buy brand new bikes every couple of years, even with products as mature as ICE MX where year-on-year changes are relatively modest. Electric bikes are so new they would probably change more with each iteration, though maybe not yearly (battery capacity, weight, software, and "standard" refinement in chassis, suspension...).
Stark will first expand a bit with enduro, maybe later supermoto, but their end goal is to develop by tapping into the road bikes market, they know that's where the money is. The technology isn't there yet but looking at Energica or Zero, they're not that far from reasonable weight/range/power either so it could make sense for Stark to go that route maybe 4-5 years from now (and help Eicher electrify their range and develop light electric commuters in the meantime). The role of Eicher isn't limited to bringing money to the table.
Wow, and here I thought I had the only Varg in Davis. . .
If the product proves out there's potential to be more converts than early adopters. The longer these go with real world owners seeing good reliability the more likely people will jump ship from their trusted brands to Starks. This is where the Alta fell short, not enough bikes for not enough time before they went belly-up, but by most accounts the Stark is a better platform all around. I think there's also potential to bring new riders in from the ebike/surron world.
I think the bigger question is when there will be an equivalent competing product.
I agree that none of them intend to stay within their niche, but so far they've only expanded into....another niche. Supermoto is more niche than MX and then you're into another Inception level of niche with electric. They're amazing in town fun commuters for sure, except they come with a price tag that doesn't interest commuters, so they're locked in their e-sumo niche. I don't think road bikes are proving to be much better, even though they make a lot more sense from an available audience perspective. Safety is probably the biggest hurdle for pulling in the masses and so far that's been impossible to mitigate.
I think all of us are failing to visualize whatever the bread and butter product is for a two-wheel e-company like Alta and Stark, because if we/they knew what it was, it's the first thing that these companies would build. The fact that they're building these things first tells us that this is exactly what they think the bread and butter is and I think there's good evidence to the contrary. Whatever it is, it needs to quickly materialize and sell if you're going to pre-build a half billion dollar company around a currently non-existent product. Big businesses have big expenses and that investor money is going to dry up and proper sustainable income needs to be there to rev-match when that happens.
Honda's likely to be the first major OEM with a competing product, they are probably 3-4 years away, Ducati entering AMA SX may push Honda's timetable.
Mine shipped, just waiting for the dealership to give me a call to pick up. I have no idea when that will be. Supposedly early Feb. I reserved one first day available, and have been receiving communication since last summer “it’s almost ready!”. It’s evolved from shipping direct to has to go to nearest dealer. I had no say in any aspect.
I have ridden one, it was a blast. I like any type of dirt bike.
I hope it's worth the wait.
It will be interesting to see how many Stark has shipped, please post the VIN!
Picked up mine last week at Marionville Powersports (Missouri). I ordered mine on the second day back in 2021 but I live in Arkansas where we have no dealers. I saw the writing on the wall and contacted Marionville PS and the owner Chad, fixed me up.
They had close to 50 shipped months ago and probably have another batch coming. One of the best buying experiences I've had.
Great to hear, what color did you end up going with? Just an FYI, check your spokes religiously for the first few rides and still relatively often after that, mine tended to loosen up A LOT in the beginning but seem to have settled for the most part now.
Mine came red but I've had a white plastic kit waiting for it for weeks.
I have Bike Graphix working on a design now.
I think I'll run white for woods and H/S and red for MX.
I like your posts, they're very well-reasoned. They're almost always overtly pessimistic - yes - and I hate overt pessimism - yes - but I do like reading them nevertheless. The one thing I think maybe you're off on is what Eicher expects to get in return for their 50 mil investment in Stark. If Eicher was merely a venture capitalist company, then what you've written would ring very true, inevitable even - but they're not. They're a motorcycle manufacturing company, which means there are several ways they could receive an ROI on their investment. Stark has loads of talent, and talent costs money - always has, always will. Eicher can access that talent now, due to them being an equity partner, and that alone could provide them with a major slice of the return they're after. And - as I've written many times now - none of us know what Stark is designing now, but there's certainly no reason to think it won't be as ground-breaking as the Varg was. You think the Varg is the best thing they'll ever come up with, that it's their "flagship product" - well maybe, and maybe not. We cannot know what we do not know, but it's safe to say that Stark is the most innovative, fearless motorcycle company to come out of the last century, and they're even better at keeping whatever they're up to a secret. Eicher got a glimpse of those secrets, and they wrote a big fat check based on them.
I think maybe they know something we don't. Is all.
I see what you are both saying really.
As far as niche within a niche within a niche not being sustainable. How has Surron continued to grow and gain market share?
Right from the start , the first interview I heard with Anton. He has said that he MX bike will only be the first. He has said he felt like if they could make a competitive MX bike that a lot of the other motorcycles would be easier to build . A street bike's weight is not as big of a factor. A dual sport or supermoto version is the easiest way to reuse what they have with the Varg. Some lights and some more paperwork etc. and You have 3 models.
But Anton had said they plan on making all kinds of motorcycles. So I would be more surprised if they did not have other types of bikes in the works. They were having trouble delivering the Varg at first. So give them a chance to catch up, and make sure they get that right before they offer another different platform. I would bet they have some sort of commuter style bike on the way, or are helping Eicher with one. Who knows what else. A sport style street bike? Something to compete with the KTM/Husky EMX mini's? Something like a sur-ron?
I think that a chassis that could be adapted to go from 50 through 85 , or maybe 50-65 and a 65-85 sizes would be something that Electric would make possible. That would be difficult or impossible with gas. They could have firmware that would change the power when a larger battery was used. And then have swingarm , forks and wheels to change the sizing. Maybe make it so a subframe could also be swapped to help. A bike like this could also be adapted into a sick pit bike. Build a modular bike with bolt on "mod packs".
Just give them the chance to catch up before you decide they do not have a plan for what's next.
Pit Row
My feeling is that Stark will stick to high end motorcycles, be it on or off road, mostly because electric bikes made in Europe will always be more expensive than Chinese Surrons or Japanese commuter bikes. High end motorcycles for a niche of a niche, one niche at a time
The knowledge and technology will trickle down to entry level bikes, light commuters and such made with/by Eicher because they need to be cheap and produced in large batches. Indeed Royal Enfield is planning for a production capacity of 150 000 electric bikes starting next year. IMHO that's not Stark Future's future.
There was software update coming anyone got it yet?
The Varg could also be the Chevy Corvette or Ford's GT. A premium product as the face of what the brand can do . And then some more regular guy level bikes.
If Anton wants to be the Tesla of motorcycles , than a everyman's model type of bike would need to be a part of the plan. Tesla being like Ford's model T . Tesla being the most popular relatively affordable mass produced electric car maker. I've hear people describe Stark as the Tesla of Motorcycles. I do not remember if Anton himself has said anything about wanting to be Tesla like. Tesla cars are great in ways, but I would not say that they are comparable to the fit and finish of an exotic car.
Or they could be like Lamborghini as the high performance niche area brand and Eicher being the Audi or VW that may share some tech in the long run.
I could see Stark starting to offer higher end options for the Vargs too. Let customers go into a dealer and build a bike to order like you would with a car or truck. And offering some really wild stuff.
If Anton and Stark had kept the smaller factory and not revised the plans to build the factory . Instead they go from a 5k ish bike per year production capacity to the 150k bikes per year capacity factory they ended up building. That makes me think that they have plans for building something with a larger market . KTM sold just over 375K motorcycles world wide in 2022 .That is combining KTM, Husky and Gasgas brands according to the multiple google results I found. MX bikes make up a much smaller market . And KTM's street bikes that are made in China and sold in india make up the bigger numbers.
I could see them building in many markets and having the nicer bikes. Have a base model that can be built to order in a much nicer setup. But also having something that sells in higher numbers than a MX bike.
I think your 3rd paragraph there hits the nail squarely on the head. A 65/85/pit-bike combo ride with parts to make it bigger and faster as needed would almost be like creating the "missing link" of motocross. You could tune it to your exact needs (and so could your friends), and because it would still be relatively small and relatively underpowered, anyone with a couple acres would become a potential track owner. No noise complaints from the neighbors, just lotsa fun and on any given summer evening and excellent exercise for all involved to boot. You say you want to expand the sport? Well then, somebody somewhere, please: build that bike.
Time will tell, of course, but if I were them, it would be top-of-mind in my R&D department.
So did the Brian guy just totally disappear?
Cheers bud and I agree in the overall theme that there is lots we don't know, plus there is lots they do know. However, there is one thing that we do know, which is that whatever their plans are, the numbers tell us it's a fairly high bar in regard to self-sustainability, which is the core of my concerns. Eicher has a board of directors and shareholders just like venture capitalists might, and neither would be interested in failure since that's when losses are truly realized, so the patience is strong either way, but also not infinite either way.
The potential difference is the ROI as you mentioned, because there is only one form for venture capitalists and maybe others with Eicher, like "explore further opportunities to collaborate in the space of electric mobility", and that's a wide open multitude of categories. Eicher also has a seat on Stark's board and could undoubtedly help lean them out if they get in trouble, so there are definitely some things to be optimistic about. It would still be backwards and risky though, to make the likely unsustainable thing first and then try to figure out the sustainable thing.
Eicher may also give Stark a dealer network in India.
Stuff like that ( the modular bike) is one of the big reasons I get excited about electric. Not what we have now, but what it will make possible in the not far future. And the modular combo bike was something that I could see fitting into Stark's way of doing things. KTM had great luck with hooking kids on their products and keeping them as they moved up from bike to bike. A bike like I described could do something similar. And if they made a PW-65 bike , they might even be able to get that racing some races right away. In with the KTM's and Husky's.
I just bought an EMTB to hopefully get my busted up body into a little better shape. And I've been looking at some of the crazy modified E Bikes. They are getting a lot of power from a small motor. It becomes much less reliable. But they keep getting more compact and more powerful with longer range. Looking at hub motors and all the DIY stuff available for bicycles. It made me think that there could be an even bigger aftermarket for EMX bikes than there is now with gas dirtbikes. A lot of guys building their own batteries and making some wild bikes.
If MTB guys can learn to love electric, MX guys should be able to. Sorry for a bunch of type o's in some of my recent posts. I noticed I have been a little sloppy. I'm busier with work and it makes it harder .
True but what's the market size in India for $14 000 motorcycles?
Last year Royal Enfield sold 920 000 motorcycles, they dominate the premium segment (over 250cc) in India with over 80% market share.
I see the 2 brands as very complimentary, in India there's probably a much (much!) bigger market for a moderately priced RE electric motorcycle than for the Varg.
We should see the first RE electric motorcycle in 2025, and maybe by that time we'll know a bit more about Stark plans (and next model).
Electric streetbikes are not a great idea, at least not for the US. Current batteries have to be huge and heavy to get any kind of decent range and recharging on common 120 volts takes forever.
If solid state batteries pan put like the recent buzz about them says then maybe if they are packing twice the range at the current weight.
Closed course, short range, and exploiting it's strengths (variety of packaging vs ICE and low noise) is where electric currently is. The Varg with a slightly bigger battery is about as much sense as a big bike currently makes.
Exploring sub-100v options for kids mx bikes, surron style adult bikes, and scooter style street transport is where the bread and butter will be until next generation batteries come online.
Making the unsustainable thing first is exactly what they said they were planning on doing. Right from the start,Anton said in the Gypse Tales interview that they wanted to build the MX bike first because they felt it was the more difficult project and one that would help them prove the company. And that other motorcycles have always been a part of the plan. Of course he could have been making that all up. And You could be right. But it feels like people are speculating on something that has already been answered to a degree.
I am excited to see what they do next. I hope its still some sort of performance fun thing. And not a scooter or similar thing for the masses. But if that's what it takes to keep Stark building Varg's and improving them. Just seems odd they would build a factory that could produce so many bikes , knowing the relatively limited market for a Varg even in their wildest projections if they were not planning on something that would have a higher demand. Maybe they will build batteries and power systems for other brands . It will be fun to speculate and watch what happens.
Unlikely they would enter the scouter market, low cost, low margin, more likely modify the Varg platform for enduro and supermoto, followed by a mid range sports or naked bike.
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