Reed, Reed, Reed!!!

12/27/2013 2:48am Edited Date/Time 12/30/2013 3:39pm
Hope he can pull of some wins in 2014. I really start to get excited at the prospect of both Reed and Ferris standing on top of a AMA SX poduim in 2014.
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burn1986
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12/27/2013 4:52am
LOL
zook11
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12/27/2013 5:00am
kongols wrote:
[img]http://www.thcfinder.com/uploads/files/puff-puff-pass-thcf-u.jpg[/img]
Yup
DoctorJD
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12/27/2013 5:11am
I'm a Reed fan, but I'm also a realist. Chad will be lucky to make the podium this year...unless he is VERY comfortable on that Kawi..

The Shop

12/27/2013 5:16am
DoctorJD wrote:
I'm a Reed fan, but I'm also a realist. Chad will be lucky to make the podium this year...unless he is VERY comfortable on that Kawi..
I thought that a couple of years ago, then he battled with Villopoto. I wouldn't count him out, but of course his chances are small
Xeno
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12/27/2013 7:36am
Reed could get a win for sure.
davistld01
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12/27/2013 7:51am
I'd like to think Reed could win one "for the old guys"...but t felt that way about Windham too for the last couple years.
MXD
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12/27/2013 8:35am
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have randomly won in the past but you can't count on that happening. It usually takes a sequence of good fortune (or misfortune for your competitors) and the stars to align for that to happen. I don't see Reed battling RV, JS7, RD, JB, ET, KR and guys like that for 20 laps and besting them all without some good fortune. Whereas someone like RV or JS7 doesn't need any good fortune, they can win on just pure speed and beat the others when they are at their best. IMO, he will need some good fortune to even get on the podium if everyone is healthy.
Hut
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12/27/2013 8:44am
Pray for rain.
dsmith
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12/27/2013 9:39am
one word.....Barcia
scott_nz
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12/27/2013 9:42am
Reed winning would not suprise me,

Ferris winning a SX main would,
visser62
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12/27/2013 10:44am
He could possibly pull it off in San Diego.
12/27/2013 10:48am
MXD wrote:
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have...
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have randomly won in the past but you can't count on that happening. It usually takes a sequence of good fortune (or misfortune for your competitors) and the stars to align for that to happen. I don't see Reed battling RV, JS7, RD, JB, ET, KR and guys like that for 20 laps and besting them all without some good fortune. Whereas someone like RV or JS7 doesn't need any good fortune, they can win on just pure speed and beat the others when they are at their best. IMO, he will need some good fortune to even get on the podium if everyone is healthy.
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs KDubs 18 wins and 0 titles and Short's 1 and 0 so I don't think they are very comparable.
jeffro503
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12/27/2013 12:00pm
I gotta cheer for Reed! When it comes to believing in the guy I'm with Geoff on this one. As a fan I've wrote last season off. I want to see the Chad Reed of 2012 come back to this series. THAT chad " had it ".......and if he's 100% healthy I don't see why he couldn't make a serious mark again this year.

Go Chad!
MXD
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12/27/2013 12:36pm
MXD wrote:
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have...
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have randomly won in the past but you can't count on that happening. It usually takes a sequence of good fortune (or misfortune for your competitors) and the stars to align for that to happen. I don't see Reed battling RV, JS7, RD, JB, ET, KR and guys like that for 20 laps and besting them all without some good fortune. Whereas someone like RV or JS7 doesn't need any good fortune, they can win on just pure speed and beat the others when they are at their best. IMO, he will need some good fortune to even get on the podium if everyone is healthy.
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs...
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs KDubs 18 wins and 0 titles and Short's 1 and 0 so I don't think they are very comparable.
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today are about what Kdubs were in the past few years. It wouldn't surprise me if he won but I don't expect it unless things go wrong for the everyday front runners like RV, JS and RD. IIRC, he was 28 when he chased down RV in Dallas and he's now 30. 20-22 is no big deal, 28-30 feels like a decade.
FreshTopEnd
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12/27/2013 12:44pm
DoctorJD wrote:
I'm a Reed fan, but I'm also a realist. Chad will be lucky to make the podium this year...unless he is VERY comfortable on that Kawi..
I thought that a couple of years ago, then he battled with Villopoto. I wouldn't count him out, but of course his chances are small
I agree, could go either way, but risky to underestimate Reedy. Career's winding down, but one of gone strongest mentally ever. Would like to see him get the success to sustain the team to its transition to him as owner/manager
Moto_Geek
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12/27/2013 12:55pm
If it's a mudder, he has a chance.
12/27/2013 1:04pm
MXD wrote:
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have...
Guys with top level talent and on the back 9 of their careers like KDub and Shorty (I would now put Reed in that class) have randomly won in the past but you can't count on that happening. It usually takes a sequence of good fortune (or misfortune for your competitors) and the stars to align for that to happen. I don't see Reed battling RV, JS7, RD, JB, ET, KR and guys like that for 20 laps and besting them all without some good fortune. Whereas someone like RV or JS7 doesn't need any good fortune, they can win on just pure speed and beat the others when they are at their best. IMO, he will need some good fortune to even get on the podium if everyone is healthy.
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs...
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs KDubs 18 wins and 0 titles and Short's 1 and 0 so I don't think they are very comparable.
MXD wrote:
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today...
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today are about what Kdubs were in the past few years. It wouldn't surprise me if he won but I don't expect it unless things go wrong for the everyday front runners like RV, JS and RD. IIRC, he was 28 when he chased down RV in Dallas and he's now 30. 20-22 is no big deal, 28-30 feels like a decade.
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if Reed and KDub were equals (which they are not) Reed would have a good shot at the championship. Given Reed has a much higher win percentage than Windham I would say he has a excellent shot at several wins and the championship.

Comparing Reed to Short though?, That's just silly.
12/27/2013 1:07pm
another year older and brand switch , one or 2 podiums at best and by podium i mean 3rd
MXD
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12/27/2013 1:11pm
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs...
If Reed is healthy I think he will have Tomac, Barcia, and Roczen covered and probably Dungey too. Reed has 41 wins and 2 championships vs KDubs 18 wins and 0 titles and Short's 1 and 0 so I don't think they are very comparable.
MXD wrote:
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today...
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today are about what Kdubs were in the past few years. It wouldn't surprise me if he won but I don't expect it unless things go wrong for the everyday front runners like RV, JS and RD. IIRC, he was 28 when he chased down RV in Dallas and he's now 30. 20-22 is no big deal, 28-30 feels like a decade.
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if...
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if Reed and KDub were equals (which they are not) Reed would have a good shot at the championship. Given Reed has a much higher win percentage than Windham I would say he has a excellent shot at several wins and the championship.

Comparing Reed to Short though?, That's just silly.
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much different. As far as KDub in 10', compare that field to this one.......
RandyS
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12/27/2013 1:25pm
Reed didn't lose as much ground from 2012 last year as it looked like. A comfortable Chad Reed would look like he did in 2012. Will that guy show up? I don't know, I hope and if he does he'll be a factor. If he doesn't, he still stands as one of the top 10 or 12 riders of all time, and the most successful foreign rider of all time.
12/27/2013 1:28pm
DoctorJD wrote:
I'm a Reed fan, but I'm also a realist. Chad will be lucky to make the podium this year...unless he is VERY comfortable on that Kawi..
I thought that a couple of years ago, then he battled with Villopoto. I wouldn't count him out, but of course his chances are small
I agree, could go either way, but risky to underestimate Reedy. Career's winding down, but one of gone strongest mentally ever. Would like to see him...
I agree, could go either way, but risky to underestimate Reedy. Career's winding down, but one of gone strongest mentally ever. Would like to see him get the success to sustain the team to its transition to him as owner/manager
Wow..did you really say MENTALLY STRONG...are we talking the same rider? Tissue box was mandatory when racing against RC. And he pulled some questionable moves on James. All of his "vids" portray himself as a "warrior" but the crying episodes has spoiled that image for me.And when he won his titles it was by default and not straight up since RC and James were not present.

However, I will agree with you I would like to see him have enough success this year to keep the 22 team alive because Reed has an unique approach to making the sport interesting.
12/27/2013 1:33pm Edited Date/Time 12/27/2013 1:39pm
MXD wrote:
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today...
I wasn't comparing Kdub and Shorty to Reed in their prime. My point was that his career is winding down so his chances of winning today are about what Kdubs were in the past few years. It wouldn't surprise me if he won but I don't expect it unless things go wrong for the everyday front runners like RV, JS and RD. IIRC, he was 28 when he chased down RV in Dallas and he's now 30. 20-22 is no big deal, 28-30 feels like a decade.
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if...
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if Reed and KDub were equals (which they are not) Reed would have a good shot at the championship. Given Reed has a much higher win percentage than Windham I would say he has a excellent shot at several wins and the championship.

Comparing Reed to Short though?, That's just silly.
MXD wrote:
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much...
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much different. As far as KDub in 10', compare that field to this one.......
In 2010 KDub was at the same point in his career as Reed is now and he got 2nd overall with a couple of wins. I realize you are not comparing their careers what I am trying to point out is that KDub was still highly competitive for podiums, wins and the championship when he was Reed's age. Given that Reed has had more success than Windham It would seem logical that he should still be considered a top tier threat.

to simplify my argument:

If Windham can get 2nd overall with 2 wins and 8 podiums at 31 years old

Then

Reed has a great shot at exceeding what Windham did at the same age, 31

I don't think this field is any different than then what it was in 2010.

A field of Reed, Stewart, Dungey, Villipoto is pretty tough. Yeah, 5 through 10 is better now but the top 5 from 2010 are equal to the top 5 in 2014
MXD
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12/27/2013 1:44pm Edited Date/Time 12/27/2013 1:51pm
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if...
KDub is four years older than Reed. In the 2010 season Windham got 2nd overall with 8 podiums and 2 wins. Seems to me even if Reed and KDub were equals (which they are not) Reed would have a good shot at the championship. Given Reed has a much higher win percentage than Windham I would say he has a excellent shot at several wins and the championship.

Comparing Reed to Short though?, That's just silly.
MXD wrote:
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much...
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much different. As far as KDub in 10', compare that field to this one.......
In 2010 KDub was at the same point in his career as Reed is now and he got 2nd overall with a couple of wins. I...
In 2010 KDub was at the same point in his career as Reed is now and he got 2nd overall with a couple of wins. I realize you are not comparing their careers what I am trying to point out is that KDub was still highly competitive for podiums, wins and the championship when he was Reed's age. Given that Reed has had more success than Windham It would seem logical that he should still be considered a top tier threat.

to simplify my argument:

If Windham can get 2nd overall with 2 wins and 8 podiums at 31 years old

Then

Reed has a great shot at exceeding what Windham did at the same age, 31

I don't think this field is any different than then what it was in 2010.

A field of Reed, Stewart, Dungey, Villipoto is pretty tough. Yeah, 5 through 10 is better now but the top 5 from 2010 are equal to the top 5 in 2014
I would agree with your assessment if not for one exception, the field he's racing against. If you took the field in 2010 and put them on the line today, I would say that Reed would even have a shot at the title but 2014 is a much different crop of riders (so far, knock on wood). Conversely, put today's field on the gate in 2010 and KDub is probably outside the top 5 and doesn't win a race.

I'm also cheating a bit due to that hindsight 20/20 thing. I get to look back at 2010 and see that 3 of the top contenders didn't finish the season.

Here are the top 10 in points for the 2010 season in the 450 class:
1. Ryan Dungey, 363
2. Kevin Windham, 293
3. Davi Millsaps, 268
4. Ryan Villopoto, 266
5. Justin Brayton, 238
6. Josh Hill, 233
7. Nick Wey, 197
8. Tommy Hahn, 186
9. Ivan Tedesco, 183
10. Kyle Chisholm, 177

There is no way the top 5 from 2010 are the same as this year. You can't compare 2010 to what we hope 2014 will be. Keep in mind, although RV finished 4th, his season ended in STL.
12/27/2013 2:01pm Edited Date/Time 12/27/2013 2:10pm
MXD wrote:
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much...
Again, I'm not comparing their careers! I am simply saying that they are at the same point in their careers. Of course their careers are much different. As far as KDub in 10', compare that field to this one.......
In 2010 KDub was at the same point in his career as Reed is now and he got 2nd overall with a couple of wins. I...
In 2010 KDub was at the same point in his career as Reed is now and he got 2nd overall with a couple of wins. I realize you are not comparing their careers what I am trying to point out is that KDub was still highly competitive for podiums, wins and the championship when he was Reed's age. Given that Reed has had more success than Windham It would seem logical that he should still be considered a top tier threat.

to simplify my argument:

If Windham can get 2nd overall with 2 wins and 8 podiums at 31 years old

Then

Reed has a great shot at exceeding what Windham did at the same age, 31

I don't think this field is any different than then what it was in 2010.

A field of Reed, Stewart, Dungey, Villipoto is pretty tough. Yeah, 5 through 10 is better now but the top 5 from 2010 are equal to the top 5 in 2014
MXD wrote:
I would agree with your assessment if not for one exception, the field he's racing against. If you took the field in 2010 and put them...
I would agree with your assessment if not for one exception, the field he's racing against. If you took the field in 2010 and put them on the line today, I would say that Reed would even have a shot at the title but 2014 is a much different crop of riders (so far, knock on wood). Conversely, put today's field on the gate in 2010 and KDub is probably outside the top 5 and doesn't win a race.

I'm also cheating a bit due to that hindsight 20/20 thing. I get to look back at 2010 and see that 3 of the top contenders didn't finish the season.

Here are the top 10 in points for the 2010 season in the 450 class:
1. Ryan Dungey, 363
2. Kevin Windham, 293
3. Davi Millsaps, 268
4. Ryan Villopoto, 266
5. Justin Brayton, 238
6. Josh Hill, 233
7. Nick Wey, 197
8. Tommy Hahn, 186
9. Ivan Tedesco, 183
10. Kyle Chisholm, 177

There is no way the top 5 from 2010 are the same as this year. You can't compare 2010 to what we hope 2014 will be. Keep in mind, although RV finished 4th, his season ended in STL.
Do you think a 2010 KDub could beat a 2014 Roczen, Barcia, and Tomac? What about Dungey? I think he consistently places ahead of the three young guys and goes toe to toe with the 2014 Dungey.

I think the 2014 Reed can exceed that. If healthy he should consistently beat Tomac, Barcia and Roczen edge out Dungey and give Villipoto and Stewart a good run for their money.

Also the deeper the field the more likely complete pandalirium will break out ala 2011

I think the top 5 of 2010 were a fair amount better than the projected top five of 2014.

Do you think a

2014 RV is better than 2010 Stewart?

2014 Stewart better than a 2010 Reed?

2014 Dungey better than a 2010 RV?

2014 Barcia better than a 2010 Dungey?

2014 Tomac better than a 2010 Windham?

Personally I think the 2010 top 5 are much better.
MXD
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12/27/2013 2:25pm
You've got your stats mixed up. The top five from 2010 were:
RD5
KW14
DM18
RV2 (left the series after STL)
JB10

And yes, I think aside from RD and RV, the other 3 of the top 5 from 2010 will struggle to get top 10 this year so IMO, there is no comparison between 10 and 14.

My prediction, Reed will finish the season somewhere between 5th and 7th. I'll bookmark this thread and check back in May to see if I was close or not.
12/27/2013 2:31pm Edited Date/Time 12/27/2013 2:32pm
MXD wrote:
You've got your stats mixed up. The top five from 2010 were: RD5 KW14 DM18 RV2 (left the series after STL) JB10 And yes, I think...
You've got your stats mixed up. The top five from 2010 were:
RD5
KW14
DM18
RV2 (left the series after STL)
JB10

And yes, I think aside from RD and RV, the other 3 of the top 5 from 2010 will struggle to get top 10 this year so IMO, there is no comparison between 10 and 14.

My prediction, Reed will finish the season somewhere between 5th and 7th. I'll bookmark this thread and check back in May to see if I was close or not.
I'm just talking going into 2010, Reed and Stewart were hurt during the season but were the best at the time. So as the field was going into the 2010 season I think to a man the 2010 top five was better.
Radical
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12/27/2013 11:04pm
You guys are forgetting that Reed had RV's number in 2012 before his get off. He has every bit a shot at the title this year. I hope he gets it.

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