What do you guys think? I'm not going to predict winners/podiums yet, as not all the big hitters' teams are final.
To me following countries seem certainties – without any accidents ofcourse – for the A-final (in random order): Australia, USA, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spain, Germany, Slovenia, Italy, Switzerland, Latvia, Denmark, Great Britain, Brazil, Canada, Estonia, Austria, Sweden and Venezuela.
In the B-final, I can see Norway or Chile making it through. Finland or Argentina can get some good results in B-final, but Norway or Chile seem stronger teams in terms of depth to me. Looking at the entry list, it seems to me the B-final will be at the lowest level in many years. The South American nations, Ireland, Israel, Mexico, Iceland, Ukraine, the FIM-teams... They won't set the world ablaze.
As for Japan and South Africa, both Shimoda and McLellan will have to exceed themselves and stay flawless in their Qualifying Race were they will have to get a top 5 at least, and then still hope for some favorable results from their teammates, whose level is significantly lower. But I highly doubt both nations will make it. Assuming that both countries will be in the B-final, Shimoda and McLellan should theoretically finish 1st and 2nd. I doubt if that will be enough to qualify regarding their teammates.
But, as always, strange things can happen. Delight me with your insights!
1) Australia
2) Belgium
3) Netherlands
AUS
NED
USA
BEL
GER
Somehow I feel like France won't have a great weekend. Or maybe I'm just hoping for Germany to crack the top 5.
If Deegan and Sexton are out I dont see anyone getting close to Australia. NED could if they didn't leave their best rider at home
I think you're top 3 are spot on. AUS is for sure the favorite. Netherlands has a very solid, underrated team, even without the bullet. USA can win, but they will have to be near perfect all weekend starting with qualifying. If the weather holds up, they have a good shot.
Still some unknowns about USA…. But if it’s the speculated team, they’ll contend.
I’m thinking top 5 in order:
AUS-USA-NED-BEL-FRA
GER could be in there too.
Make no mistake, with even just a little luck, any of those could win. But the most important “luck” for all of them but AUS is a first turn crash by Huntah. Don’t count on it…
However and as always, MXoN can be unpredictable and surprising.
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Hayden is still talking about trying to race...if they put an injured Hayden in over J. Coop I think it'll be a huge mistake.
That being said:
AUS
NED
USA
To be honest, I can't see The Netherlands step onto the podium without Herlings.
Coldenhoff had one of the best seasons of his career, but seems to have lost his mojo after Arnhem (maybe because of that gnarly Saturday crash at Turkey), and races around anonymously between 8th to 12th the past weeks.
Vlaanderen is steady, but not sensational. He won't mix it up with any of the Lawrences, Tomac, Coenen, Febvre, Gajser, etc. He can't be underestimated, but he won't deliver the Dutch a podium.
The only member of Team Netherlands I can see deliver and mix up with the front runners (even with the 450s) is De Wolf. Boy, would I love to see him get bar to bar with Deegan.
Top 5 would be great for them.
I'll be surprised if Canada makes the A final.
I think there are some rumblings that Herlings may be racing for Netherlands now. Guess we will have to wait and see about him and whoever is racing for USA. Strange to not have an official update yet.
I wish they could have put personal beef to the side and sent their best team.
Australia
Everyone else.
AUS then USA/NED. If Herlings races they will have a great team. Maybe challenge AUS.
USA won’t win and everyone will blame Haiden.
Is it..is it..is it possible to see Sacha pull a holeshot & sprint away? Keep it on 2 wheels for a podium finish OR could he even win the moto??
Lucas can run up front if he’s riding good.
Team France not in the top 5 at the end of the day? Without injuries or mechanicals? No way.
I know everyone loves AUS, but remember Kyle Webster went 19-DNS at Ironman just a little over a month ago on a 450. Now, half the guys in his races will be on a 450 and he will be on a 250. I do not expect him to get a top 10 moto at Ironman. JCoop could have 2 top 10's and maybe even another top 5 in the second moto.
Jett and Hunter will put up low numbers, but can they overcome the gap between JCoop and Webster? It's closer on paper than most people want to think it is. The gap from Cooper to Webster is significant.
Everts is the ? for BEL. I think Sacha can sneak 1 good moto in and Lucas should be good in both of his motos. But Everts is running 6-9 in MX2 and he's going to jump on a 450 and get a top 10? Tall order there...
But we all know weird shit happens at MXoN and I think it will again this year.
Webster then went 8-9 at Unadilla and admitted to heat issues at Ironman. Is he our weak link? Yes but we just need one good moto.
Lord have mercy of Kaden Minear ends being another prodigy. Combined with the Lawrence brothers, that might be an unbeatable team for the foreseeable future.
And you got one at Matterley Basin. I don't think it's going to be as easy at Ironman.
Isn't this race great?
Pit Row
I had to leave someone out to put GER there, sorry 😏
Really?
Yeah.
I’m not surprised everyone has Oz as favourites after the US changes, but has there ever been a team expected to win with a member who doesn’t race either premier series, and is not even in his normal class?
Obviously the brothers are elite, but the pressure on Webster blows me away.
I guess that makes sense...you guys can only ride about 9 days a year.🙃
Webster also just came off winning a 450 championship, jumped on a plane right away and flew 20 hours to the other side of the world, jump on a (somewhat) different bike and race a couple of days later. Jetlag, exhaustion and heatstroke were factors in that Ironman result.
He'll be just fine, dude is top level and will rise to the occasion.
JO holeshots his way to a moto Win as carnage ensues behind him . . .
JETT gets two bad starts and still manages a moto win. However, in other moto, he crashes into others coming thru the pack to finish top 8 gaining enough points for AUS overall . . .
HUNTER finishes 2 - 2 . . .
ELI finishes 3 - 3 . . . Team USA 2nd overall
DEWOLF finishes top 8 both motos . . .
ROCZEN finishes 4 - 7 . . .
LCOENEN finishes 7 - 4 . . .
FEBVRE finishes 6 - 6 . . .
GEJSER finishes DNF - 1 . . .
Good Luck to all in 2025 MX des Nations!
Based on what may Herlings be racing for Team NL?
Seems like all other members are fit and ready to race...
I would love to see him race, but I think the team is final
Biggest mistake ever for their team!!! The man has been zip codes ahead of their starting 450 riders and could make this des nations a must watch IMO!!
Still makes me think there is a lot more to the Herlings story than we are being told. No way they pass him up because they think Vlaanderen would be better, no way. NL is not a contender to win without Herlings IMO, a podium would be a good result for them.
Agree, on paper they are battling FRA and BEL for 3rd…
But MXoN always has a surprise!!
So I asked ChatGPT to predict the finish results, assuming the champ from the GPs is equivalent to the champ of the same class in the US, and assuming being on a 250 is worth a 3 position penalty compared to the same rider on a 450 (probably more but really depends on start order, and we've seen 250s do very well). Here's what it calculated. This also only considers the top 9 countries so take it with a grain of salt. Oh, and it calculated USA and Australia being tied going into moto 3. Keep in mind last year Australia beat USA by 3 points.
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