KTM to file for Bankruptcy/ Self Restructuring on Friday

sandman768
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1/3/2025 12:55pm Edited Date/Time 1/3/2025 12:57pm
  Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? I almost pulled...

 

Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? 

I almost pulled the trigger on a 25 TC  300 Heritage. I'm glad that I waited.

Talked to a high level dealer for all austrian brands yesterday… blowing out 24”s like crazy…no incentives on 25”s…….yet…if I didn’t already have a 23 & 24, I would’ve  bought one for sure, I’m waiting on the 25”s to go on sale

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outerlimits
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1/3/2025 2:09pm
  Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? I almost pulled...

 

Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? 

I almost pulled the trigger on a 25 TC  300 Heritage. I'm glad that I waited.

tek14 wrote:
-10% didnt get bikes moving but sure when right discount comes bike start moving. People are not paying higher prices than bike from Japan just because...

-10% didnt get bikes moving but sure when right discount comes bike start moving. People are not paying higher prices than bike from Japan just because KTM wants. 

And yet, that's exactly what people have been doing for the last 20 years.

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1
1/3/2025 2:32pm
  Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? I almost pulled...

 

Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? 

I almost pulled the trigger on a 25 TC  300 Heritage. I'm glad that I waited.

tek14 wrote:
-10% didnt get bikes moving but sure when right discount comes bike start moving. People are not paying higher prices than bike from Japan just because...

-10% didnt get bikes moving but sure when right discount comes bike start moving. People are not paying higher prices than bike from Japan just because KTM wants. 

And yet, that's exactly what people have been doing for the last 20 years.

But all I hear from those folks now is:
"should I wait?" and "I'll grab one when they're cheap."

MxAddic
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1/3/2025 3:34pm

But all I hear from those folks now is:
"should I wait?" and "I'll grab one when they're cheap."

I think they have moved a bunch of inventory in December. Time will tell if future sales suffer. 

I would not be surprised if the rebates brought in a bunch of first time KTM buyers.

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The Shop

1/3/2025 3:40pm
6 months ago Pierer had € -106 cash and € 209 million undrawn committed credit lines, I'd guess they blew through their credit, and have no...

6 months ago Pierer had € -106 cash and € 209 million undrawn committed credit lines, I'd guess they blew through their credit, and have no cash to pay back creditors.

The only thing they have of value is stock (190,000 bikes), plant and equipment, no way banks/creditors could get 30% NOW, unless the business is sold. More likely the 30% is calculated on the sale of the 190,000 bikes they have in stock, €5,000 x 190,000 = €950,000,000.

Team403 wrote:

I’m thinking the $5k a unit margin is pretty strong esp if they are rebating.  

€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and trial, including kids and adult's bikes.

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1/3/2025 3:57pm Edited Date/Time 1/3/2025 3:58pm
6 months ago Pierer had € -106 cash and € 209 million undrawn committed credit lines, I'd guess they blew through their credit, and have no...

6 months ago Pierer had € -106 cash and € 209 million undrawn committed credit lines, I'd guess they blew through their credit, and have no cash to pay back creditors.

The only thing they have of value is stock (190,000 bikes), plant and equipment, no way banks/creditors could get 30% NOW, unless the business is sold. More likely the 30% is calculated on the sale of the 190,000 bikes they have in stock, €5,000 x 190,000 = €950,000,000.

Team403 wrote:

I’m thinking the $5k a unit margin is pretty strong esp if they are rebating.  

€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and...

€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and trial, including kids and adult's bikes.

And unit margin doesn't matter so much. The value includes costs.

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j368
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1/3/2025 4:32pm
Spoonguy wrote:
This is one of the things that is confusing is the timeline, well that and the slew of misinformation and amateur European economic lawyers. Do the...

This is one of the things that is confusing is the timeline, well that and the slew of misinformation and amateur European economic lawyers. Do the banks/creditors want the 30% NOW, or over time? Are they hoping to get 100% over time? I doubt if the banks called up any of us and wanted us to pay off all our debts NOW it would be very easy for any of us. I am assuming this is how the shit hit the fan, KTM was missing payments and payroll, and everybody started piling on. Even if the 30% is NOW, that is $900M from the $3B which is huge for a company KTM's size. It seems this has all gone too far for the firm to reestablish as it once was, unpaid and obviously disgruntled workforce, 300,000 unsold bikes, pissed off dealers, and of course the debt. What a shit show.

MxAddic wrote:

It’s only a promise to pay 30% within 2 years. That is all they will get and the rest will be forgiven .

They will pay on the back side too when more money is borrowed down the road. The interest rates will skyrocket, more in fees etc. Don’t kid yourself the Banks will not be okay with taking the hit. They will get paid later on and a whole lot more than 30%. They may not say it, but they’ll get their money. 

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Spoonguy
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1/3/2025 4:50pm
  Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? I almost pulled...

 

Clearance sale coming. I can't wait to see that list. Is it just 24 models, 25 as well? What about Huski and GAS GAS? 

I almost pulled the trigger on a 25 TC  300 Heritage. I'm glad that I waited.

tek14 wrote:
-10% didnt get bikes moving but sure when right discount comes bike start moving. People are not paying higher prices than bike from Japan just because...

-10% didnt get bikes moving but sure when right discount comes bike start moving. People are not paying higher prices than bike from Japan just because KTM wants. 

And yet, that's exactly what people have been doing for the last 20 years.

I've been buying KTM/Hsky forever. To get a Japan bike where the KTM is costs. Then you still don't get a six speed 250 twostroke, a 300, or 350, or chrome moly frame. This episode has me looking at Betas, Rieju, and Sherco. If their own banks and employees can't trust them, how can I?

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Beagle
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1/3/2025 5:31pm Edited Date/Time 1/3/2025 5:38pm
Team403 wrote:

I’m thinking the $5k a unit margin is pretty strong esp if they are rebating.  

€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and...

€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and trial, including kids and adult's bikes.

And unit margin doesn't matter so much. The value includes costs.

I think that's the number for total sales, including bicycles and e-bicycles.

Take the 2023 numbers given in the annual report,

dividing revenue of 2.661 billion by 538 913 sales gives a revenue of 4938 € per sale. That seems reasonable given the wide range of vehicles (street bikes, dirt bikes, bicycles, e bicycles...), and in agreement with the 5000 € quoted.

Now for the scary part (all calculations on 2023 numbers):

EBITDA of 323.5 million (12.2%) is 600 € per sale.

EBIT of 160.0 million (6.0%) is 297 € per sale

Earnings after tax of 76.4 million (2.9%), once again divided by total sales that's... 142 € earned per sale 🤯

 

Numbers for the motorcycle division are a bit better (reflecting losses in the bicycles division)

Revenue of 2 416.4 million, divided by 381 555 sold motorcycles gives a revenue of 6333 € per motorcycle.

EBITDA of 371.0 million (15.4%) is 972 € per motorcycle.

EBIT of 214.4 million (8.9%) is 562 € per motorcycle.

Others more knowledgeable than me may confirm, it seems to me that EBIT of 9% is a decent margin for motorcycles, that's 1 100 € earned (before interests and taxes) on every 450 SX-F sold (at 12 500 €). 

That also gives an idea of the margins they have for potential rebates... No data for earnings after interest and taxes for motorcycles only and yes, EBIT is an average and margin will vary depending on models... but still, with around 1100 € EBIT on a 450 SX-F, the margin after paying interest and taxes can't be much.

1
1/3/2025 5:53pm
€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and...

€5k is the average selling price Pierer has reported in their financial statements to their distributors/dealer, that is the average for all road, off road and trial, including kids and adult's bikes.

And unit margin doesn't matter so much. The value includes costs.

Beagle wrote:
I think that's the number for total sales, including bicycles and e-bicycles.Take the 2023 numbers given in the annual report,dividing revenue of 2.661 billion by 538...

I think that's the number for total sales, including bicycles and e-bicycles.

Take the 2023 numbers given in the annual report,

dividing revenue of 2.661 billion by 538 913 sales gives a revenue of 4938 € per sale. That seems reasonable given the wide range of vehicles (street bikes, dirt bikes, bicycles, e bicycles...), and in agreement with the 5000 € quoted.

Now for the scary part (all calculations on 2023 numbers):

EBITDA of 323.5 million (12.2%) is 600 € per sale.

EBIT of 160.0 million (6.0%) is 297 € per sale

Earnings after tax of 76.4 million (2.9%), once again divided by total sales that's... 142 € earned per sale 🤯

 

Numbers for the motorcycle division are a bit better (reflecting losses in the bicycles division)

Revenue of 2 416.4 million, divided by 381 555 sold motorcycles gives a revenue of 6333 € per motorcycle.

EBITDA of 371.0 million (15.4%) is 972 € per motorcycle.

EBIT of 214.4 million (8.9%) is 562 € per motorcycle.

Others more knowledgeable than me may confirm, it seems to me that EBIT of 9% is a decent margin for motorcycles, that's 1 100 € earned (before interests and taxes) on every 450 SX-F sold (at 12 500 €). 

That also gives an idea of the margins they have for potential rebates... No data for earnings after interest and taxes for motorcycles only and yes, EBIT is an average and margin will vary depending on models... but still, with around 1100 € EBIT on a 450 SX-F, the margin after paying interest and taxes can't be much.

Pierer's 2023 annual report shows 482,195 motorcycles sold in a chart...

image 914.png?VersionId=IKG6eFIV

but 381,555 in the text...

image 915.png?VersionId=K2

Just one of many inconsistencies in their annual report!

 

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Beagle
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1/4/2025 12:54am Edited Date/Time 1/4/2025 12:56am
Pierer's 2023 annual report shows 482,195 motorcycles sold in a chart...but 381,555 in the text...Just one of many inconsistencies in their annual report! 

Pierer's 2023 annual report shows 482,195 motorcycles sold in a chart...

image 914.png?VersionId=IKG6eFIV

but 381,555 in the text...

image 915.png?VersionId=K2

Just one of many inconsistencies in their annual report!

 

Under "Powered Two Wheelers" they add motorcycles (381 555) and e-bicycles (100 640) sales 😉

1000011617 0.png?VersionId=2o0N
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MxAddic
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1/4/2025 3:09am

Again 1B in 2 years is incermountable from unit sales alone.

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Beagle
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1/4/2025 3:41am Edited Date/Time 1/4/2025 3:44am
MxAddic wrote:

Again 1B in 2 years is incermountable from unit sales alone.

Well, everyone is well aware that sales can't cut it, wether it's 1 or 3 b, that's why they're restructuring. They'll need to reduce costs and generate cash by selling some assets, we'll get more details at the 2nd hearing at the end of the month. That's why there are big question marks on the future of their racing operations (offload it to investors and such).

I say get rid of those damn bicycles and e-bicycles, maybe focus even more on more profitable segments (street?) and there's a real possibility they'll shift more production overseas (though I guess high end products like dirt bikes should be safe in Austria).

1/4/2025 4:47am
MxAddic wrote:

Again 1B in 2 years is incermountable from unit sales alone.

Beagle wrote:
Well, everyone is well aware that sales can't cut it, wether it's 1 or 3 b, that's why they're restructuring. They'll need to reduce costs and...

Well, everyone is well aware that sales can't cut it, wether it's 1 or 3 b, that's why they're restructuring. They'll need to reduce costs and generate cash by selling some assets, we'll get more details at the 2nd hearing at the end of the month. That's why there are big question marks on the future of their racing operations (offload it to investors and such).

I say get rid of those damn bicycles and e-bicycles, maybe focus even more on more profitable segments (street?) and there's a real possibility they'll shift more production overseas (though I guess high end products like dirt bikes should be safe in Austria).

Dirt bikes part manufacture or assembly may not be safe is they need to reduce manufacturing costs.

MxAddic
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1/4/2025 5:28am Edited Date/Time 1/4/2025 5:29am

Dirt bikes part manufacture or assembly may not be safe is they need to reduce manufacturing costs.

As reckless as they where at spending on racing something tells me they didn’t leave near as much meat on the bone when it comes to production cost cutting.  I mean somebody had to be doing their jobs at some level.

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Hammer 663s
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1/4/2025 9:28am
MxAddic wrote:

Again 1B in 2 years is incermountable from unit sales alone.

Beagle wrote:
Well, everyone is well aware that sales can't cut it, wether it's 1 or 3 b, that's why they're restructuring. They'll need to reduce costs and...

Well, everyone is well aware that sales can't cut it, wether it's 1 or 3 b, that's why they're restructuring. They'll need to reduce costs and generate cash by selling some assets, we'll get more details at the 2nd hearing at the end of the month. That's why there are big question marks on the future of their racing operations (offload it to investors and such).

I say get rid of those damn bicycles and e-bicycles, maybe focus even more on more profitable segments (street?) and there's a real possibility they'll shift more production overseas (though I guess high end products like dirt bikes should be safe in Austria).

Dirt bikes part manufacture or assembly may not be safe is they need to reduce manufacturing costs.

Great. Starting in 22 iirc we saw outsourced crank issues and then cylinder issues. And there are the frame failures (Austrian built) that we saw a few years back when they went too light in some areas. Plus the cam failures impacting the adv bike twins. Outsourcing QC isn't up to what we've come to expect from Austrian stuff.

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1/4/2025 10:23am

Their sales/margin probably doesn't even cover the racing budget

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wrc777
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Fantasy
1/4/2025 10:25am

To everyone waiting for a clearance sale did you see Munn’s selling 2024 450s for under $7500? That is 24 kx450 pricing. I don’t think it will get much cheaper than that. They cut way back on 2025 production. I don’t think you will see deals on those until closer to June and only then if inventory is high. I doubt they will have a ton of 2026 bikes coming in to replace them. Any suppliers they owe money to are not going to send parts to build more bikes unless there is cash on the barrel. 

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grunkster
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1/4/2025 10:29am

Here in the midwest there are LOTS of 25's sitting in dealers and they are not selling...

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Beagle
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1/4/2025 11:11am

Their sales/margin probably doesn't even cover the racing budget

Not sure what you mean but the numbers above (EBIT of 8.8% so average of 562 € per motorcycle) are already taking into account all costs, including racing expenses.

Now if they were to cancel their entire racing program, not withstanding the effect on sales and all else being equal, the gain would be equivalent to an additional earning of about 200 € per bike.

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1/4/2025 11:56am

I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it. I doubt the margin on bikes just taking manufacturing costs into account is any more than that per bike and that's almost every bike they sold. The math ain't mathin that they can say they made anything off of any bike when racing is included 

Team403
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1/4/2025 12:00pm

Their sales/margin probably doesn't even cover the racing budget

Beagle wrote:
Not sure what you mean but the numbers above (EBIT of 8.8% so average of 562 € per motorcycle) are already taking into account all costs...

Not sure what you mean but the numbers above (EBIT of 8.8% so average of 562 € per motorcycle) are already taking into account all costs, including racing expenses.

Now if they were to cancel their entire racing program, not withstanding the effect on sales and all else being equal, the gain would be equivalent to an additional earning of about 200 € per bike.

It’s the I in EBIT that is surely causing some pain…

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MxAddic
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1/4/2025 12:01pm
I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it...

I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it. I doubt the margin on bikes just taking manufacturing costs into account is any more than that per bike and that's almost every bike they sold. The math ain't mathin that they can say they made anything off of any bike when racing is included 

Bro how many of those bikes are they kicking back the dealer $2G's/unit to move? 

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1/4/2025 12:33pm

Their sales/margin probably doesn't even cover the racing budget

Beagle wrote:
Not sure what you mean but the numbers above (EBIT of 8.8% so average of 562 € per motorcycle) are already taking into account all costs...

Not sure what you mean but the numbers above (EBIT of 8.8% so average of 562 € per motorcycle) are already taking into account all costs, including racing expenses.

Now if they were to cancel their entire racing program, not withstanding the effect on sales and all else being equal, the gain would be equivalent to an additional earning of about 200 € per bike.

Team403 wrote:

It’s the I in EBIT that is surely causing some pain…

Indeed. They are so cooked (as the kids say)

1/4/2025 12:36pm
Team403 wrote:

It’s the I in EBIT that is surely causing some pain…

EBIT is a bad picture-painter 

Banana_oil
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1/4/2025 12:44pm

I wonder, will there be any dealers willing to sell KTMs in the years to come?

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Beagle
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1/4/2025 12:51pm Edited Date/Time 1/4/2025 1:02pm
I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it...

I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it. I doubt the margin on bikes just taking manufacturing costs into account is any more than that per bike and that's almost every bike they sold. The math ain't mathin that they can say they made anything off of any bike when racing is included 

Right, 289 million (everything is in euros btw) is the "selling and racing expenses", that was the only data available in the 2023 financial report.

But a few days ago we've learned through the current insolvency process that 2023 racing expenses were 95 million euros (of which 46 million, roughly half of it, were for road racing, that is MotoGP, Moto2, Moto3). Keep in mind this includes personnel expenses so shutting down racing would also mean firing hundreds more workers (and losing a lot in marketing value and brand awareness).

Again, EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) already accounts for all costs and expenses except interest and taxes, so that's what they've earned after paying for their racing program.

So after paying to go racing (MotoGP, SMX, MXGP, Dakar, enduro...) they've made an average of 562 € per motorcycle (8.9% of the revenue) before paying interest and taxes

Now as a thought experiment, if we were to "cancel the racing program", adding 95 million to EBIT and dividing it by total motorcycle sales, that would add 249 € gain per motorcycle sale.

Or to put it differently, in 2023, PMG have "used" the equivalent of 249 € per sale to fund their complete racing program.

I must state I have no knowledge in finance, I'm just doing simple calculations, it makes it easier for me to put things into perspective.

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Beagle
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1/4/2025 1:00pm
I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it...

I swear I saw a $289 million outlay for all the race teams. That's 530,275 units need an average profit of $545/bike, just to cover it. I doubt the margin on bikes just taking manufacturing costs into account is any more than that per bike and that's almost every bike they sold. The math ain't mathin that they can say they made anything off of any bike when racing is included 

MxAddic wrote:

Bro how many of those bikes are they kicking back the dealer $2G's/unit to move? 

Price rebates cost PMG 6.7 million euros in 2023. 

Sounds like a lot. That's less than 0.3% of the revenue, an average of 17€ rebate per bike.

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MxAddic
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1/4/2025 1:01pm
Banana_oil wrote:

I wonder, will there be any dealers willing to sell KTMs in the years to come?

At the very least they are using them as a bank to liquidate the excessive '24 inventory they where forced to accept.

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MxAddic
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1/4/2025 1:17pm
Beagle wrote:

Price rebates cost PMG 6.7 million euros in 2023. 

Sounds like a lot. That's less than 0.3% of the revenue, an average of 17€ rebate per bike.

Extremely impressive if you are a stockholder.

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