Rare 450 Window Opening?

What team spots are they going to fill if they move up early? Once this older generation of riders starts to retire, there will be spots on teams to fill and the 450 teams will be looking to the guys winning 250s to fill those spots. 

The idea that Deegan gets on a 450 next year is moronic in many ways, but you ask a good question.

I could see 250 guys staying down if they can due to the Jett Effect. Who wants to move up when you’re basically guaranteed to get thumped by 30-60 seconds?

Then again, a vacuum for positions 3-10 could allow a lot of guys to slot into the class and have good results 

If Jett turns out to be as dominant as it looks like he might be, I think it does change the dynamic. Were 125 guys chomping at the bit to get on a 250 during the Ricky years? Honestly can’t remember 

They should do it the traditional way. Stay down and get back to back championships then move up. Stay away from that Jett smoke as long as you can 😤

Time is undefeated, but the fans/Vital often have a tendency expect retirement to be imminent, when its often years away.

I don't think you will see Roczen, Anderson, Webb or Tomac retire before 2026 at the earliest.

Why? The money is starting to get quite good again. And a big reason is that there doesn't seem to be a crop of hot 250 riders ready to move up and push these guys out of the Top 10. 

If anything.. I think riders should be going pro earlier. 

2024 has been coined as the deepest field ever and BS12 has raised some valid points of conversation.

I also can see in the very near future a pretty depleted 450 field. The gates will still be full but the depth of talent as in Tomac talent will be lacking.

Hunter for example is older than Jett but younger than Tomac, Barcia and the regulars. When those guys have retired Hunter will fill the voids left and probably will be fighting for podiums. 

Interesting days ahead for sure.

I don't mind Deegeebabes but I can't see him running close to Jett when he arrives in 450's.

Wilson, Barcia, Ciancirullo, Craig, Freesy are on last year so there are many open spots next year. 

Barcia has another year on his contract 

The funny thing is a lot of the fast 250 riders are 25 + years old as well.

That is why i think a guy like Justin Cooper will be in a fantastic position in a couple of years (barring nasty injuries).

It's easier to stick around in the 250 class these days so less riders will move up, and the ones that does aren't relatively speaking that good to be honest. 
Guys like Cooper and Hunter Lawrence are way better than most of the 250 riders that are going to move up in the coming 2-5 years.

I see only one current 250 rider that probably will be better than these two and that is Deegan. Some might argue that RJ will be at a Hunter/Justin Cooper-level but i think he will be a tick off these two once he moves up.

I fear for RJ's safety when he finally get on a 450

The 450 is just the medicine he needs. He will HAVE to adjust his style and I think he can. Looking forward to it.

It's really just Wilson, Craig and Friese. Barcia has another year and AC will probably be replaced by Prado. That's just 1 factory spot open. 

Hopefully a seat opens up in 2026 when Towers decides to turn pro. 
 

relax, it’s a joke. 

I think it was a mistake for Mike Alessi to go straight to 450 (250) at the time, I think he could have won a 250 (125) title. That 450 class aint no joke let them learn and grow before putting them in it. IMO

I think that Bennick kid is the one to watch. Hes got that Jett/Sexton build. By 2027 i would think most of the current 450 riders will retire or be on the downside and moved aside like KTM did to Musquin.

2027 sets up perfectly for Bennick and Deegan to move up.

I think it was maybe Daytona last year where he did a one-off on a 450?  He won the heat race and had a good night in the main if I recall correctly.  I agree with the sentiments of ILoveMoto, it may be his best medicine?   I am going to be disappointed if he does not move up soon, he is one of the few guys that has the speed that will always keep him on a factory bike in the big boy class.  I know some riders have moved up and out of a factory 250 ride, then flounder with their career with mixed results, but RJ won't have that problem (IMO), he has speed and confidence.  Downside, consistency, maybe the 450 would help there.  One thing is for sure, Husky needs some help..   I know the 450 results are partially due to crashes, but with Farres out, who know what is up with Craig, and Mookie having consistency issues, they are barely showing up.

It is easy to bundle RJ and Smith, they have had similar careers, but I have higher hopes for RJ than Smith, Smith has been turning it up lately though, hopefully he can get some consistency.

Along the same lines as the OPs question, another name that also comes to mind quickly is McAdoo, he seems like one of the only other logical considerations for someone that should be paying close attention to exactly when to make the jump to the 450 class.  Scanning the current field, a lot of the rest of the current 250 field are on the young side, and still developing.  I would say Vialle, but I think he would be smart to keep building before making the leap.

Good times to be a SX/MX fan!

Maybe Hymas, JuJu, Cochran and Mitch's new kid that just won the futures. To hear DB talk about KTM's young guns they're loaded.

RJ and Vialle are probably ready to move up... Deegan could be competitive on a 450, but I think another year in 250s will allow him to be able to build his brand as well and gain some experience.  Prado is probably coming next year, though I dont see him leaving Red Bull and GasGas (KTM), hes worth a lot to those brands, and he proved that he can have success in the US. 

Mapping bud...a 450 can be tuned to behave like a 250 and bumped up as the experience is absorbed. RJ's problems are not bike related, he needs to ride within his comfort zone. 

RJ and Forkner have the same issues...

If he doesn't adjust he's going to need medicine. Percocet

If racers are getting paid to race in the 250 class they will.

450 Job openings and $$$$ offers will motivate 250 riders to move up and fill those positions.

Neckburn baby!

He didn't, aside from a few nationals in 04.

Mike raced the 250 class for ktm indoors and out.

Maybe you guys see something I don't when watching deegan, I see him over riding the bike at times.

Jason Anderson - 31

Justin Barcia - 31

Adam Cianciarulo - 27, but rumors of retirement at the end of the season are circulating

Christian Craig - 32

Dylan Ferrandis - 29

Vince Friese - 33

Shane McElrath - 29

Ken Roczen - 29

Malcolm Stewart - 31

Eli Tomac - 31

Dean Wilson - 32 (retiring at season’s end)

When you look back at RC, Stew, RV and Dunge, and how they all retired before thirty, it’s not too crazy to think that we’ll see a surge of retirements in the next few years. On the other hand, you have guys like Brayton and Reed that were in it until they were almost forty, so maybe not. Only time will tell, I guess.

This here goes back to the Jett Argument.. we are going to see a a whole bunch of new riders move to the 450 class. Meanwhile Jett will be younger then most moving up and will be an established veteran in the class. Who moves up that is really going to be a consistent title threat for the next 5-7 years. Unless injury.. Its hard to imagine any rider moving up being a serious threat every weekend.