So I have thought this for a longgg time, but I have finally seen Adam Cianciarulo mention this himself for the first time on his podcast with chase sexton. He finally talked about how tiny he was on the 250 when he first turned pro and said “why did they ever let me out there, I was still a kid”. I think he brings up a good point that isnt really being talked about these days. So many top amateur riders these days are burning out super fast or getting hurt over and over. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact they are going to these moto compounds as young kids and training super hard and riding super hard and burning out by the time they turn pro. It then makes them more vulnerable to injury and then they cant shake being injured, look at Jett Reynolds.
On top of that everybody hits puberty at different times, ac looked like a 12 yr old when he first turned pro and was racing against full grown men on 250fs.
Here is a picture of Adam at 16 in 2013 as he is about to race his second ever pro race.
You cant tell me this literal little child should have been lining up to race sx that year. No wonder he got injured, he was tiny! He didnt have a shot!
Here is adam 3 years later in 2016.
Some riders need to wait a few years to turn pro so they can grow into the big bikes. Also not only was adam a kid, but he had been training at compounds for years. The workload on such a young kid is wayyy too much. Do you guys think they need to back off on the workload for these kids so they can peak after they turn pro not before? Are the compounds doing more harm than good to the top amateurs who are being chewed up and spit out? Also should they hold some top amateurs back a few years before going pro so they are ready and not forced in before they are?
Link to the podcast.
The difference in physique is somewhat astounding between those 2 pictures, but heck, I've got pictures of my Grand Nephews only a few months on from each one, and it's like night and day, the difference.
One of the (formerly little) blighters came around last weekend (sporting cast from a f**king Footy Injury - bloody hell I hope he's not going to emulate my journey of injuries) and he was almost level with me - though I am now shrinking, at least vertically, if not horizontally.
But, people grow at different rates - always have done.
What should be done ? Height / Weight 'classing'? A fair few sports do this, but, I don't think it's appropriate for MC sport(s).
Intelligence / Emotional Maturity 'classing' ? Heck - AC would have been put into the adults classes at around 12, if you went off the intelligence he showed at an early age.
As for so few 'phenoms' getting through to adult level Championship success - well, it really always has been so, and will always be so, in any sport. There's limited room at the very top of the sport.
It's a bummer AC has had so many injuries, that have so set back his results. I always think of how he and Tim Gajser are born within a month and a bit of each other, yet you see the Championships Tigga has totted up. Not that he hasn't dealt with injuries, as well, but few so devastating as ACs have been, over so many years. The sport really could have done with such a likable, articulate, intelligent representative for it as AC, at the very top. But, he has been quite the fine example of a young man for quite a few years.
I think it really comes down to the fact that the only way to make good money in this game is via a factory ride. And with there being so few good rides it is Uber Uber competitive. Riders from all over the world want those rides. And if you don’t win within say 3 years you’re done. If the model was set up where you can make a good living from prize money alone there wouldn’t be so much pressure to be the worlds best at 16. You could take your time with it and getting a factory ride out of amateurs isn’t the difference between life and death as it seems it is now.
Mentality.
Compare past champions to those who haven't panned out. Villopoto, Dungey, Webb, Tomac, etc. They all have that special determination, the extra will. No fear, no doubts, just execute.
Some guys just simply aren't mentally elite.
College football has run into similar issue with a lot of highly rated recruits not panning out. It's mostly because the development at the lower levels is so much more advanced than it used to be, so some athletes are reaching their peak at an earlier age and have nothing left to give. Texas high school football is so good that a lot of their recruits get graded on a curve because they've already had so much coaching and development compared to others.
Same thing is happening in moto. If you judge a fully committed compound 15 year old against a 15 year old who is coming up at a more natural rate, the compound kid is going to look more promising but he might already have reached his max potential whereas the other kid might have a ton of improvement to be had. Factory teams have put their faith in their developmental programs finding them the next sure thing and it isn't that simple at all. It's not a linear progression and there's tons of examples of this. Sooner or later the factories are going to stop dumping money into these youngsters and start saving it to sign the true sure things that are already proving it at the level that matters. Or instead of spending a lot on a few you spend a little on a lot of people and play the field a little more.
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Listen to the Whiskey Throttle show with the Lawrence brothers. They talk about how the U.S. kids train to sprint for a few laps. There take on amatuer MX seemed pretty spot on.
I think the amateur system in the US is floored , the gap between the amateurs and pro needs some middle ground , like the emx races at gps
This is why we need a 125 class….
I don't know, everyone of the powers that be say the current East/West supercross set up is just perfect, and is preserving jobs.
I think there are a lot of sports where you have a 10yr window to give it all you have and when that 10yr window starts doesn't matter a whole lot. If you blow it all on being the fastest kid on a pw the world has ever seen, don't be surprised when the kid finally hits 18 and they are burnt out mentally and physically.
Its very tough as a parent of a young child to watch your kid not be the best or give the most effort at anything they do. Doesn't matter if we are talking about Dirtbikes, Soccer, Swimming, gymnastics. Some kids just get it immediately, and then as a parent you try to foster that which leads to 160 gate drops a year, and the kids that dont, end up getting compared too and put into extra training, ect.
So its a giant catch-22. No one wants to see their child fail, and everyone will give the shirt off their back to see their kid succeed. Its the toughest to do the easiest thing which is to sit back and smile and ask the kid if they had fun.
I agree about the teams scaling back for their amateur programs. It doesnt make sense to invest all of that money if the rider isnt under contract for like 10 years and can sign with another team after a year or 2 in the pros. Obviously nobody would give that contract because nobody is guaranteed to succeed. Look at Jett and Hunter for example. They spent their entire amateur career under the suzuki banner and I’m sure suzuki invested a lot of money. Then when they go pro they move to honda and are now propelling honda to new heights. Suzuki got basically nothing out of it. Tomac was another suzuki amateur and funny enough he also went to honda when he went pro and won championships. Maybe thats why suzuki has backed off so much lol theyre tired of preparing riders for a successful career at honda.
Same thing in US Tennis fwiw
Only one guy can win a race, and they get hurt trying.
All I know is Drew Adams is the troof
Or, and hear me out, Suzuki wouldn't/couldn't offer the support/money that said rider deserved when the time came. That loss of investment is on them in that case.
Eli went to Honda when Suzuki was pulling their amateur support across the board.
Yep this is the problem with all youth sports now but you have to remember the law of diminishing returns. You can always put more into something, but at what cost and for what additional gain? The incremental gain in riding ability is not at all worth what these facility kids are giving up in so many other areas. Rule of thumb for youth sports is hours per week on that sport shouldn't exceed age. Facility kids hit that by Tuesday. It's not healthy. If you have to sell your home, forego education and a semi normal childhood, just to make a few night shows, probably would have been better for you to be local fast guy with a normal life.
I think the overwhelming majority of top amateurs not panning out is due to them having vastly superior bikes as amateurs which made life easy to win. Once they get to the pros theyre on equal equipment with other pro riders and their advantages are mitigated. This doesn't apply to every case but I think there's something to it
Yeah...not a kook laden 4 lap exhibition. DC and his swingers seem to think the system isn't broken though. But, but...Honda.
Something to this.
I also think that for all us armchair warriors.... the true level of commitment and dedication of an entire extended family, for years and years , is just an abstraction to us .
An abstraction.
Those that have been through it know.
Pit Row
This is a popular view but it completely ignores how many Suzuki's that Tomac, Lawrences etc. help sell as amateurs.
It's not just Pros that can have an impact on sales, if little Johnny Racer goes to a race and sees a bunch of fast kids on Suzukis beating his ass he's probably gonna ask mom and dad to get him a Suzuki.
How many little kids wanted to go get a KTM 50 because they saw Deegan ripping one around? Sure, he left for Yamaha when he went Pro but he damn sure helped sell some KTMs before that. This would seem to apply to all high level amateurs across the board.
*Please for the love of god don't let this thread go down the toilet now that Deegs has been mentioned*
To add to that. Look at which guys will concede a position often and don't fight for it. Those guys don't win championships.
Maybe now that Honda won a few titles this year.....they won't be so sensitive?
Maybe so, was quite a dry spell. There will be other excuses no doubt...that's what LL is for, blag, blah, blah. American MX revolves around LL.
Do you think if Forkner waited another year to grow his journey would have been different? I think so but there's so much pressure to go pro ASAP, if you don't take the offer that's given to you it may not be there next year. Also, if you're already kicking everyone's ass, how do you get better if you don't move up? It's a complicated issue.
Some are better than others, there can only be so many champions.
The AMA could put the age limit back to 18 for your pro license like they tried a few years ago. Before all the factorys bitched and got it back to 16 lol! The kids need to grow into there bodies I think it would've changed alot of career trajectories! Definitely Adam's!
100%
The chosen few get the equipment, and those that dont ,cant get a look in, and fall by the wayside, whilst actually being just as good.
Do you think the way Deegan, Vohland, Way and Ferry have gone about it, is going to be better for their Pro Careers ?
Another reason is guys keep getting another go round, and never leaving the class. So these AM guys dont just have to beat the other AM's they have to beat career 250 guys too, one of many reasons why never pointing out is dumb.
The danger is though, if you miss your chance , and then get hurt, you are done... Forkner is having his 15th go at a 250 championship, meanwhile Sexton is already on to his second full factory 450 deal.
At least getting to Pro and having a 2 year deal, you have chance.
I don't have a problem with guys turning pro at 16 if their speed warrants it. I have a much bigger problem with kids racing 50s and 85s and being all in living in a motorhome at a facility. There needs to be a healthier and more sane progression up through the ranks.
I wouldn't say not "panning out" but there is only what, 20 - 30 paying rides between 250 and 450 class? You have to be the 1% of the 1% to make it in this sport.
Every sport is this way. There are thousands of young players who move up until their talent has peaked. For some that is Loretta’s level for others it is 250’s and for a very few it is the very top. Since the 90’s there have been maybe 20 -30 guys who are uber elite. In the last 20 years in golf there has been Tiger and maybe 6 others. That is sports. .
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