Does KR have a real chance?

davistld01
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davistld01
With Roczen's 1-1 win at Unadilla this last Saturday, I believe that puts him only 39 (I think...) points behind Dylan Ferrandis for the Championship. Do you think, with Kenny looking like he's caught his "second wind" and Dylan seeming to making some mistakes...Roczen has a fighting chance of overcoming Ferrandis for the title in the races we have left?
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TooTallJason
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TooTallJason 8/18/2021 7:36am
8/18/2021 7:36am
I mean of course he has a mathematical chance, but it'll be tough. He needs to get lucky and the only way I see it happening is if Ferrandis hits the ground at some point.

I think if Ferrandis keeps it rubber side down it's his.
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dsmith
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dsmith 8/18/2021 7:47am
8/18/2021 7:47am
Something bad gatta happen to dylan i think...like breaking a chain
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MotoMan12345
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MotoMan12345 8/18/2021 7:49am
8/18/2021 7:49am
One first turn crash like kens can change it all…one crash away from it all changing. So yeah anything can happen. Still a lot of racing left
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Motocross83 8/18/2021 7:53am
8/18/2021 7:53am
I think if he's able to continue eating up the points deficit and get things down to a one moto lead for Dylan - then that'll be a a big deal mentally for Ken. At this point if (in another universe...) I were in his position then I think that that's the way I'd try and look at it, rather than the whole 39 points. Once you get it down to one moto then as we all know weird things can happen; first turn crash, bike failure etc.

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agn5008
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agn5008 8/18/2021 8:05am
8/18/2021 8:05am
We’ve seen this from both Eli and Ken this year. They’ll look great one race then go back to 5th the next. Dylan has been the best overall all year long. I’m not gonna put too much stock into one or two races.
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mxtech1
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mxtech1 8/18/2021 8:08am
8/18/2021 8:08am
The only way it happens is if Kenny basically wins out and Ferrandis has several very bad motos (DNF or out of points position)

I don't see that happening though. Ferrandis is going to continue to push for wins and podiums.
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DPR250R
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DPR250R 8/18/2021 8:11am
8/18/2021 8:11am
He needs help from Eli and Chase.
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Bruce372
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Bruce372 8/18/2021 8:30am
8/18/2021 8:30am
Yes, there is a chance. This is motocross, one small rock is enough to derail a chain and loose 25 points.
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Falcon
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Falcon 8/18/2021 8:31am
8/18/2021 8:31am
Let's do a brief "Math with Falcon" segment:

Kenny basically needs to gain 40 points on Dylan. I haven't tallied the overall wins... doesn't KR have 2 and DF have 3??? Let's pretend a tiebreaker doesn't matter and Kenny needs 40 points.

Anyhoo.... that would mean if Roczen wins all 8 remaining motos, he would net 200 points. Ferrandis would have to score fewer than 161 points. That's 3rd or worse. If DF can land on the podium in every moto and take at least one 2nd, he will win the title, regardless of how Kroc finishes.
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nousername
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nousername 8/18/2021 9:14am
8/18/2021 9:14am
The problem with coming back that many points is there ain't many guys left that can get in between Ken an Dylan like the start of the series. If ciancirulo Anderson baria was all there still its that much harder. A bad race for Dylan shouldn't be too hard to still get a 7th-8th
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philG
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philG 8/18/2021 10:13am
8/18/2021 10:13am
crusty_xx wrote:
Yeah no
for sure
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hubbardmx50
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hubbardmx50 8/18/2021 10:18am
8/18/2021 10:18am
Man I'm so torn on who I want to win this title. Both of those guys are badass dudes and both would be amazing stories. Dylan taking it his first year in the 450 class on a 450 bike that hasn't won it in 14 years. And obviously everyone knows what Ken has been through. I've been watching Moto and supercross for about 20 years now, and It's safe to say we've been spoiled with the racing this year in both classes.

It'll be a long shot for Kenny at this point, and I don't wish any ill-will on Dylan, but we all saw what happened to AP's bike at Southwick. With eight motos left, anything can happen.
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 8/18/2021 10:46am
8/18/2021 10:46am
DPR250R wrote:
He needs help from Eli and Chase.
That's why getting a lead early in the season is so important. The later the season goes, the more top riders end up dropping out, which leaves fewer guys who can beat the leader in a given race.

Eli and Chase can get ahead of Ferrandis.

But it would sure help Roczen if Barcia, Plessinger, Osborne, Anderson and Cianciarulo were still racing. (I assume Barcia and Plessinger should return at some point soon.)

Crashing out of moto 1 at Spring Creek really hurts Roczen.
Falcon
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Falcon 8/18/2021 10:48am
8/18/2021 10:48am
nousername wrote:
The problem with coming back that many points is there ain't many guys left that can get in between Ken an Dylan like the start of...
The problem with coming back that many points is there ain't many guys left that can get in between Ken an Dylan like the start of the series. If ciancirulo Anderson baria was all there still its that much harder. A bad race for Dylan shouldn't be too hard to still get a 7th-8th
...And he hasn't finished that poorly all season.
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skeef
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skeef 8/18/2021 10:59am
8/18/2021 10:59am
Having flashbacks to the supercross season
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Press516
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Press516 8/18/2021 11:03am
8/18/2021 11:03am
Can? Yes. Realistically? No.

As above, would take moto DNF from Dylan just to make it interesting.
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Suicidal_Tendencies 8/18/2021 11:30am
8/18/2021 11:30am
Not according to that one guy. He thinks Tomac is going to take the title.
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kiwifan
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kiwifan 8/18/2021 12:53pm
8/18/2021 12:53pm
Sure it’s possible but not probable… unfortunately
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yzf162
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yzf162 8/18/2021 1:23pm
8/18/2021 1:23pm Edited Date/Time 8/19/2021 1:17pm
It's just as possible that Kenny wins it as Dylan. Anything less then a 51 point lead with 200 points on the table is a wide open game. You have some fast guys still racing that can throw a wrench in both of thier plans. Musquin, Webb, Tomac, barcia when he's back could all catch fire the last 4 races or even one of them a race. Thats enough to cause issues. Sextons gonna be up there. If dylan gets a bad start it could get ugly quickly. Same for Kenny though. Rockzen threw away 25 pts on a crash that wasn't even his fault.
In my opinion I like Dylan for the title. But also heavy is the head that wears the crown and Kenny's got less pressure he just knows he has to win nothing else. It's wide open. Now let's sit back crack a beer and watch some great racing coming up.
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Hrzk75
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Hrzk75 8/18/2021 1:31pm
8/18/2021 1:31pm Edited Date/Time 8/18/2021 1:32pm
how many are there left beside ken that can win over ferrandis? tomac, sexton,plessinger and musquin?? who else is going to step inbetween and help ken with the points?
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cheers_22 8/18/2021 2:55pm
8/18/2021 2:55pm
davistld01 wrote:
With Roczen's 1-1 win at Unadilla this last Saturday, I believe that puts him only 39 (I think...) points behind Dylan Ferrandis for the Championship. Do...
With Roczen's 1-1 win at Unadilla this last Saturday, I believe that puts him only 39 (I think...) points behind Dylan Ferrandis for the Championship. Do you think, with Kenny looking like he's caught his "second wind" and Dylan seeming to making some mistakes...Roczen has a fighting chance of overcoming Ferrandis for the title in the races we have left?
Too little too late.
TunaBro
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TunaBro 8/18/2021 3:01pm
8/18/2021 3:01pm
Damn right he does! Its not over till its over
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109 8/18/2021 8:54pm
8/18/2021 8:54pm
He has a better chance at beating DF than anyone else on the line. One first turn pile up for DF like Kenny at Millville and it’s back on. Anything can happen.
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Alex814
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Alex814 8/19/2021 7:06am
8/19/2021 7:06am
I don't think so. It won't happen just by Roczen winning more motos and that's what makes it tough. Roczen does have to keep winning, but Ferrandis also needs a DNF and then Tomac can't go back into beast mode either.
A DNF certainly would make things interesting.
mx 219
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mx 219 8/19/2021 7:42am
8/19/2021 7:42am
With a little bit of luck, yes. Needs to win most of the rest of the motos and needs Eli and Chase to beat Dylan in most of the motos as well. To make it a little easier he needs some kind of mistake from Dylan for a few extra points.
Goon645
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Goon645 8/19/2021 8:50am
8/19/2021 8:50am
As a Roczen fan the answer is still no - there is a mathematical chance that many people could win given a freak set of circumstances but Dylan has been too consistently good this year - plain and simple.

Ferrandis can ride at 80% on most tracks and still podium and podiums are all he needs to comfortably bring this home - he is just in top form and his bike is working very well. Roczen has been great and he has been in the hunt for both titles which is a testament to how competitive he still is - but this outdoor title is going to Dylan and deservedly so.
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Falcon
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Falcon 8/19/2021 8:55am
8/19/2021 8:55am
Alex814 wrote:
I don't think so. It won't happen just by Roczen winning more motos and that's what makes it tough. Roczen does have to keep winning, but...
I don't think so. It won't happen just by Roczen winning more motos and that's what makes it tough. Roczen does have to keep winning, but Ferrandis also needs a DNF and then Tomac can't go back into beast mode either.
A DNF certainly would make things interesting.
As I mentioned above, Ferrandis does NOT need a DNF. All he needs is to finish 4th in one moto and take 3rds in all the rest. (This is if Roczen wins out.) One bad moto with a few crashes might put him in 7th or 8th and then it's on.

It's an unlikely scenario that Kenny will win all the remaining motos, and even more unlikely that Dylan won't win at least one, but it is entirely possible. I've seen stranger things happen. This is no time for DF to relax. Maybe after this weekend, we'll see...
RichieW13
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RichieW13 8/20/2021 12:41pm
8/20/2021 12:41pm
yzf162 wrote:
It's just as possible that Kenny wins it as Dylan. Anything less then a 51 point lead with 200 points on the table is a wide...
It's just as possible that Kenny wins it as Dylan. Anything less then a 51 point lead with 200 points on the table is a wide open game. You have some fast guys still racing that can throw a wrench in both of thier plans. Musquin, Webb, Tomac, barcia when he's back could all catch fire the last 4 races or even one of them a race. Thats enough to cause issues. Sextons gonna be up there. If dylan gets a bad start it could get ugly quickly. Same for Kenny though. Rockzen threw away 25 pts on a crash that wasn't even his fault.
In my opinion I like Dylan for the title. But also heavy is the head that wears the crown and Kenny's got less pressure he just knows he has to win nothing else. It's wide open. Now let's sit back crack a beer and watch some great racing coming up.
That's not how probability works.
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