Lake Mead....

6/7/2026 7:47pm
sumdood wrote:

Wow. Check out this graphic yikes

Lake Mead Water Level

The vertical axis doesn't start at 0, which makes it misleading, it's only down 1.6% in 2 years... 

The vertical axis doesn't start at 0, which makes it misleading, it's only down 1.6% in 2 years...

image 3145

 

dkurtd wrote:
If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is...

If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is more like 5.19%.  Of course that is elevation, not acre feet of water.  Acre feet is how most lakes are measured.

Most reservoirs outside the US are measured by volume.

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dkurtd
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The vertical axis doesn't start at 0, which makes it misleading, it's only down 1.6% in 2 years... 

The vertical axis doesn't start at 0, which makes it misleading, it's only down 1.6% in 2 years...

image 3145

 

dkurtd wrote:
If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is...

If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is more like 5.19%.  Of course that is elevation, not acre feet of water.  Acre feet is how most lakes are measured.

Most reservoirs outside the US are measured by volume.

We measure them in volume as well; we use the acre foot/feet measurement.  One acre foot is 272.23ft x 160ft x 1 ft deep.  I believe at full pool Lake Mead is 28.23-million-acre feet of water and currently is somewhere around 8-million-acre-feet.

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soggy
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dkurtd wrote:
If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is...

If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is more like 5.19%.  Of course that is elevation, not acre feet of water.  Acre feet is how most lakes are measured.

Most reservoirs outside the US are measured by volume.

dkurtd wrote:
We measure them in volume as well; we use the acre foot/feet measurement.  One acre foot is 272.23ft x 160ft x 1 ft deep.  I believe...

We measure them in volume as well; we use the acre foot/feet measurement.  One acre foot is 272.23ft x 160ft x 1 ft deep.  I believe at full pool Lake Mead is 28.23-million-acre feet of water and currently is somewhere around 8-million-acre-feet.

Measure it however you want it ain’t good. 

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APLMAN99
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The vertical axis doesn't start at 0, which makes it misleading, it's only down 1.6% in 2 years... 

The vertical axis doesn't start at 0, which makes it misleading, it's only down 1.6% in 2 years...

image 3145

 

dkurtd wrote:
If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is...

If full pool is 1229 and dead pool is 895 then it holds 334 ft of usable water.  A 17.34 ft drop of 334 ft is more like 5.19%.  Of course that is elevation, not acre feet of water.  Acre feet is how most lakes are measured.

Most reservoirs outside the US are measured by volume.

They are 'officially' measured in volume, but for folks who live on the edge of the water or if you have water uptake pipes that you rely on, the feet above sea level reading is what is easiest to understand for most people.  A lot of lakes and reservoirs have measuring sticks that people put up, either out in the lake or on their docks, that show how high or low above 'target' the level is.  I'm pretty sure that most of the ones in Lake Mead that were there a decade ago are all dry and a long way from water now.  

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bodycast
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Can't over populate a desert and not think this wont get complicated later down the road.

Leadership failure.

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Falcon
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I've read that the problem is in the measurement and projections for the future. When Hoover Dam was built, the Colorado river flow measurements had been taken during an unprecedented wet phase. They planned for much more water than was ever likely to continue. The current "drought" they say we're in is more like a return to the normal amount of water entering the river and thus the lake. Couple that with more and more water use, and bang! There's your low reservoir. 

Let's hope the coming "Super El Nino" dumps a ton of rain and snow for the next couple years; we may get some of that pool back. 

https://www.newsweek.com/super-el-nino-could-impact-colorado-river-lake-powell-lake-mead-water-crisis-11966013 

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Dudley wrote:
The Colorado river basin is well below snowpack this year. Going to be a long summer for folks in the west I’m afraid. They’re draining 30%...

The Colorado river basin is well below snowpack this year. Going to be a long summer for folks in the west I’m afraid. They’re draining 30% of flaming gorge to rescue lake Powell. 

First year I can remember mountain biking essentially every weekend above 7000 feet. They were climbing 14ers in hiking boots with minimal spikes in early May.  
 

This summer will be fine.


It's next summer that could get dicey if the Rockies don't get a good snowfall.

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RichieW13
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6/17/2026 3:06pm Edited Date/Time 6/17/2026 3:07pm
Falcon wrote:
I've read that the problem is in the measurement and projections for the future. When Hoover Dam was built, the Colorado river flow measurements had been...

I've read that the problem is in the measurement and projections for the future. When Hoover Dam was built, the Colorado river flow measurements had been taken during an unprecedented wet phase. They planned for much more water than was ever likely to continue. The current "drought" they say we're in is more like a return to the normal amount of water entering the river and thus the lake. Couple that with more and more water use, and bang! There's your low reservoir. 

Let's hope the coming "Super El Nino" dumps a ton of rain and snow for the next couple years; we may get some of that pool back. 

https://www.newsweek.com/super-el-nino-could-impact-colorado-river-lake-powell-lake-mead-water-crisis-11966013 

Yes, the Colorado River compact allocated 16.5maf of water to the states. 

Since 1970, the Colorado River has only averaged receiving about 13.8maf per year.  On the bright side, they've only averaged using about 13.5maf per year.  That sounds like we should be fine, but it turns out in those years in the mid 80s when Mead and Powell were full (or close to it), they had to send a ton of water into the Gulf of California, because there was nowhere else to keep it.  Over the decades, something like 70maf of water (enough to fill Mead and Powell) from the Colorado river went into the Gulf of California. 

Another bright spot is that over the last 25 years, the states have been trending downwards in their use of Colorado river water.

Here's an interesting deep dive: https://wayneswords.net/threads/colorado-river-natural-flow-vs-total-wa…

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Dudley
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6/17/2026 6:01pm
Dudley wrote:
The Colorado river basin is well below snowpack this year. Going to be a long summer for folks in the west I’m afraid. They’re draining 30%...

The Colorado river basin is well below snowpack this year. Going to be a long summer for folks in the west I’m afraid. They’re draining 30% of flaming gorge to rescue lake Powell. 

First year I can remember mountain biking essentially every weekend above 7000 feet. They were climbing 14ers in hiking boots with minimal spikes in early May.  
 

RichieW13 wrote:

This summer will be fine.


It's next summer that could get dicey if the Rockies don't get a good snowfall.

I hope so, my biggest worry at the moment is forest fires. 

G-man
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8/9/2026 3:31pm
bodycast wrote:

Can't over populate a desert and not think this wont get complicated later down the road.

Leadership failure.

Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.

The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being pushed farther and farther out from the most populated cities. I've often wondered, where do they plan to get the water? Thankfully, one of the proposals was shut down about a year ago. Not sure about the recent months.

That and now there's an influx of data centers that are proposed to be built as well.

If I had grandkids, I would seriously be worried about their future here. But it seems like the majority are clueless. 

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G-man wrote:
Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being...

Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.

The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being pushed farther and farther out from the most populated cities. I've often wondered, where do they plan to get the water? Thankfully, one of the proposals was shut down about a year ago. Not sure about the recent months.

That and now there's an influx of data centers that are proposed to be built as well.

If I had grandkids, I would seriously be worried about their future here. But it seems like the majority are clueless. 

Where are people supposed to live if "greedy developers" don't build residences? 

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G-man
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8/9/2026 5:27pm
G-man wrote:
Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being...

Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.

The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being pushed farther and farther out from the most populated cities. I've often wondered, where do they plan to get the water? Thankfully, one of the proposals was shut down about a year ago. Not sure about the recent months.

That and now there's an influx of data centers that are proposed to be built as well.

If I had grandkids, I would seriously be worried about their future here. But it seems like the majority are clueless. 

RichieW13 wrote:

Where are people supposed to live if "greedy developers" don't build residences? 

Don't move here where we are we in a twenty year drought. 😁

Like I said, i'm not concerned about my immediate future.But if I had grandkids here I would be concerned.

 

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RichieW13
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G-man wrote:
Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being...

Yep Arizona's population has exploded in the last 20 years or so, with the majority from California.

The greedy investors keep building subdivisions, and they keep being pushed farther and farther out from the most populated cities. I've often wondered, where do they plan to get the water? Thankfully, one of the proposals was shut down about a year ago. Not sure about the recent months.

That and now there's an influx of data centers that are proposed to be built as well.

If I had grandkids, I would seriously be worried about their future here. But it seems like the majority are clueless. 

RichieW13 wrote:

Where are people supposed to live if "greedy developers" don't build residences? 

G-man wrote:
Don't move here where we are we in a twenty year drought. 😁Like I said, i'm not concerned about my immediate future.But if I had grandkids...

Don't move here where we are we in a twenty year drought. 😁

Like I said, i'm not concerned about my immediate future.But if I had grandkids here I would be concerned.

 

Which states is it OK for people to move to?  Are the developers "greedy" if they build in those states?

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borg
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Gecko

 

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G-man
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RichieW13 wrote:

Which states is it OK for people to move to?  Are the developers "greedy" if they build in those states?

Do the other states you're talking about have severe water Drought issues to be concerned about?

Arizona faces significant water challenges driven by a decades-long megadrought, shrinking levels in the Colorado River, and heavily depleted underground aquifers. While major cities like Phoenix and Tucson have built diversified water portfolios and strict conservation plans, rural areas and heavy agricultural sectors face immediate strain. 

So it sounds like you just want to argue about it. All I'm saying is there's a serious water issue here And the massive growth has contributed to it.

It needs to slow down, do you live in Arizona? Are you a greedy developer? 🤔 

Sounds like you don't think there's nothing to worry about. Just build baby, build! 🙄

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Gecko

 

“You see that building? I bought that building ten years ago. My first real estate deal. Sold it two years later, made an $800K profit. It was better than sex. At the time I thought that was all the money in the world. Now it’s a day’s pay.”

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cslacker
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8/10/2026 8:42am
RichieW13 wrote:

Which states is it OK for people to move to?  Are the developers "greedy" if they build in those states?

G-man wrote:
Do the other states you're talking about have severe water Drought issues to be concerned about?Arizona faces significant water challenges driven by a decades-long megadrought, shrinking...

Do the other states you're talking about have severe water Drought issues to be concerned about?

Arizona faces significant water challenges driven by a decades-long megadrought, shrinking levels in the Colorado River, and heavily depleted underground aquifers. While major cities like Phoenix and Tucson have built diversified water portfolios and strict conservation plans, rural areas and heavy agricultural sectors face immediate strain. 

So it sounds like you just want to argue about it. All I'm saying is there's a serious water issue here And the massive growth has contributed to it.

It needs to slow down, do you live in Arizona? Are you a greedy developer? 🤔 

Sounds like you don't think there's nothing to worry about. Just build baby, build! 🙄

Scientists created the world's whitest paint. It could eliminate the need for air conditioning ...

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borg
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I walked across Hoover dam just as the water was beginning to go over the spillways for the first time, other than the original test in 1941. It was in 1983 and it was spooky as hell standing on the dam and seeing how high the water was and then crossing the road to the other side. I was freaking out a bit and continued on to the AZ side and took a few pics of the water just starting to go over. I didn't stay long. I need to look for those.

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RichieW13
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8/10/2026 8:46am
RichieW13 wrote:

Which states is it OK for people to move to?  Are the developers "greedy" if they build in those states?

G-man wrote:
Do the other states you're talking about have severe water Drought issues to be concerned about?Arizona faces significant water challenges driven by a decades-long megadrought, shrinking...

Do the other states you're talking about have severe water Drought issues to be concerned about?

Arizona faces significant water challenges driven by a decades-long megadrought, shrinking levels in the Colorado River, and heavily depleted underground aquifers. While major cities like Phoenix and Tucson have built diversified water portfolios and strict conservation plans, rural areas and heavy agricultural sectors face immediate strain. 

So it sounds like you just want to argue about it. All I'm saying is there's a serious water issue here And the massive growth has contributed to it.

It needs to slow down, do you live in Arizona? Are you a greedy developer? 🤔 

Sounds like you don't think there's nothing to worry about. Just build baby, build! 🙄

My main complaint was use of the term "greedy developer".  By that logic any business is greedy simply for existing.  

But while we're on the topic, residential water usage is a fraction of what is used for agriculture.  Especially modern multi-family complexes.  

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RichieW13
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G-man wrote:
Yep nothing to be concerned about.....🙄https://youtu.be/iNQnvfTslGU?is=twTj-JNFzcO4gjSz   

Yep nothing to be concerned about.....🙄

https://youtu.be/iNQnvfTslGU?is=twTj-JNFzcO4gjSz

1000017626100001762510000176241000017623.jpg?VersionId=M5MjZ2lHGH6WSWP

 

Remember - the purpose of a reservoir is to store water in good times and save it for bad times.  Right now we are in bad times so the reservoirs are low.  

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Josh422
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We considered moving to AZ, flew down and checked out some areas etc. I couldn’t get over the sense of drought and the possibility of having a well run dry or have to get water trucked in to our house. Just not something I want to be thinking about regardless of how likely it would’ve been.

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APLMAN99
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G-man wrote:
Yep nothing to be concerned about.....🙄https://youtu.be/iNQnvfTslGU?is=twTj-JNFzcO4gjSz   

Yep nothing to be concerned about.....🙄

https://youtu.be/iNQnvfTslGU?is=twTj-JNFzcO4gjSz

1000017626100001762510000176241000017623.jpg?VersionId=M5MjZ2lHGH6WSWP

 

RichieW13 wrote:
Remember - the purpose of a reservoir is to store water in good times and save it for bad times.  Right now we are in bad...

Remember - the purpose of a reservoir is to store water in good times and save it for bad times.  Right now we are in bad times so the reservoirs are low.  

I would say that it isn't exactly just 'bad times'.  It's reached the point where the demand (outflow) has outpaced the supply (inflow) by huge volumes for a long time.  Most dams like this have to balance energy production and other water demand on a tightrope.  Even in the 'good times' in can be an incredible balancing act.  

This has been talked about for the last couple of decades, but just like our national debt issues no one wants to actually face the problem.  It won't become a vitally important issue until an event of catastrophic proportions occurs.  

Unfortunately.  

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APLMAN99
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I read somewhere that if you completely stopped taking any water out of Lake Mead, whether using it for energy production, irrigation, or any other reason, it would take over 3 years to refill to a full reservoir.  3 years without taking a drop out of it at all.  That's a long time.  And it assumes a pretty high amount of flow coming from Lake Powell.  

If you were to look at Lake Powell and Lake Mead together, as they probably should be, it would take over 10 years to refill them even if there wasn't a single drop taken out of them for human use in any way.  That's just water flowing in, nothing being removed other than evaporation.  

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RichieW13
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8/10/2026 9:29am
APLMAN99 wrote:
I would say that it isn't exactly just 'bad times'.  It's reached the point where the demand (outflow) has outpaced the supply (inflow) by huge volumes...

I would say that it isn't exactly just 'bad times'.  It's reached the point where the demand (outflow) has outpaced the supply (inflow) by huge volumes for a long time.  Most dams like this have to balance energy production and other water demand on a tightrope.  Even in the 'good times' in can be an incredible balancing act.  

This has been talked about for the last couple of decades, but just like our national debt issues no one wants to actually face the problem.  It won't become a vitally important issue until an event of catastrophic proportions occurs.  

Unfortunately.  

Total usage of Colorado river water has been trending downward for ~25 years. Peak usage was in 2001 at nearly 13 million acre-feet, where last year "we" used about 11maf.  So that's about a 15% decrease in usage.  (Plus we send another 1.5maf to Mexico every year.)

From 1971-1999 the river averaged providing over 15maf of water.  But since 2000 it has only provided 11.9maf per year.  And since 2018 it has only provided 10.6maf.

So the main issue is that over the last 25 years the Colorado river has been providing less water than it had been providing for the previous 75-100 years that were used to plan usage in the area.

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8/10/2026 9:44am
APLMAN99 wrote:
I read somewhere that if you completely stopped taking any water out of Lake Mead, whether using it for energy production, irrigation, or any other reason...

I read somewhere that if you completely stopped taking any water out of Lake Mead, whether using it for energy production, irrigation, or any other reason, it would take over 3 years to refill to a full reservoir.  3 years without taking a drop out of it at all.  That's a long time.  And it assumes a pretty high amount of flow coming from Lake Powell.  

If you were to look at Lake Powell and Lake Mead together, as they probably should be, it would take over 10 years to refill them even if there wasn't a single drop taken out of them for human use in any way.  That's just water flowing in, nothing being removed other than evaporation.  

Yes, Lake Mead holds about 26maf of water, but currently only contains 6maf.  Lake Powell is required to deliver an average of 7.5maf of water each year.  So at that rate it would take about 3 years to fill Mead.  And that assumes that enough water even flows in to Powell to send 7.5maf downstream. 

Similarly, Lake Powell is currently about 19maf under its capacity.  That's 39maf of available capacity between the 2 reservoirs. Based on recent years inflow, it will take infinity years to fill both reservoirs.  But sometimes a lot of water can come down in consecutive years.  From 1984 to 1987, the snowpack was huge.  An average of about 22maf was delivered over those 4 years.  So 88 maf combined.  At our current usage rate of about 12.5maf per year, if we had a 4-year run like we did 40 years ago, that would create a 38maf surplus, which would be almost enough to fill both reservoirs.  So based on actual previous patterns it would be theoretically possible to (almost) fill both reservoirs in 4 years.
 


 

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APLMAN99
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8/10/2026 9:57am
APLMAN99 wrote:
I would say that it isn't exactly just 'bad times'.  It's reached the point where the demand (outflow) has outpaced the supply (inflow) by huge volumes...

I would say that it isn't exactly just 'bad times'.  It's reached the point where the demand (outflow) has outpaced the supply (inflow) by huge volumes for a long time.  Most dams like this have to balance energy production and other water demand on a tightrope.  Even in the 'good times' in can be an incredible balancing act.  

This has been talked about for the last couple of decades, but just like our national debt issues no one wants to actually face the problem.  It won't become a vitally important issue until an event of catastrophic proportions occurs.  

Unfortunately.  

RichieW13 wrote:
Total usage of Colorado river water has been trending downward for ~25 years. Peak usage was in 2001 at nearly 13 million acre-feet, where last year...

Total usage of Colorado river water has been trending downward for ~25 years. Peak usage was in 2001 at nearly 13 million acre-feet, where last year "we" used about 11maf.  So that's about a 15% decrease in usage.  (Plus we send another 1.5maf to Mexico every year.)

From 1971-1999 the river averaged providing over 15maf of water.  But since 2000 it has only provided 11.9maf per year.  And since 2018 it has only provided 10.6maf.

So the main issue is that over the last 25 years the Colorado river has been providing less water than it had been providing for the previous 75-100 years that were used to plan usage in the area.

Maybe I wasn't as clear as I should have been.  The demand is still exceeding the supply, even with reduced usage.  That just points out how much worse it could have been if that usage had been sustained.  Even though total usage may have declined, it has still been unsustainably higher than the supply.  

We can't really affect the supply part of the equation too much, it is what it is for the most part.  The only thing we can really affect is the usage, and pointing out that we have reduced usage but Mother Nature is not playing fair by somehow withholding supply doesn't fill the reservoirs.  

I remember hearing some loud rumblings about this in the early 2000s, as the pattern changed drastically from the early to mid 80s.  The downward pattern in supply is more than just a few year blip now.  

Can supplies potentially increase dramatically in the next couple of decades?  Sure, anything is possible I suppose.  But there is no evidence to make anyone believe that it a certainty and continuing to use more water than the supply because the supply 'might' go up later is not a solid plan by any means.  

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RichieW13
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8/10/2026 10:05am
APLMAN99 wrote:
Maybe I wasn't as clear as I should have been.  The demand is still exceeding the supply, even with reduced usage.  That just points out how...

Maybe I wasn't as clear as I should have been.  The demand is still exceeding the supply, even with reduced usage.  That just points out how much worse it could have been if that usage had been sustained.  Even though total usage may have declined, it has still been unsustainably higher than the supply.  

We can't really affect the supply part of the equation too much, it is what it is for the most part.  The only thing we can really affect is the usage, and pointing out that we have reduced usage but Mother Nature is not playing fair by somehow withholding supply doesn't fill the reservoirs.  

I remember hearing some loud rumblings about this in the early 2000s, as the pattern changed drastically from the early to mid 80s.  The downward pattern in supply is more than just a few year blip now.  

Can supplies potentially increase dramatically in the next couple of decades?  Sure, anything is possible I suppose.  But there is no evidence to make anyone believe that it a certainty and continuing to use more water than the supply because the supply 'might' go up later is not a solid plan by any means.  

Agreed

Falcon
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8/10/2026 10:08am

I just hope the incoming "Super El Nino" will help. I understand it may be active for a couple years. Obviously, there would have to be several years' worth of rain to fill the reservoirs up, but more snow and rainfall can't be bad. 

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