So Ken has a one point lead going into SLC which theoretically gives him a slight advantage, or does it?
In a 22 rider gate, there are 462 possible outcomes between any two given riders (22 x 22 = 484 minus 22 because they both can't finish in the same position).
If either rider finishes 2 points ahead they take the title. However there are a number of scenarios where they finish equal on points. This would occur if Hunter finishes 18th (EDIT that should read 4th) or worse and just one spot ahead of Ken. There are 18 such possibilities.
It would then come down to tie breakers. They are tied on 5 wins each, but the next level tie-breaker is most second place finishes. Here Hunter has the advantage with 5 seconds vs 3 for Ken. So those 18 possibilities where they end up tied are actually in favour of Hunter.
Where does this all end up? When you calculate it all out there is mathematically each a precise 50% chance of winning based on finish position scenarios, so no rider has an advantage with certain scenarios working in their favour.
In other words, whoever finishes in front of the other guy wins the title.
Yea its really the perfect finale. None of the other shit matters its just gonna come down to which guy finishes in front of the other guy. Whether thats first and second or seventh and eighth.
Kenny having 13 seconds put on him has the be in his head, definitely Hunter has the momentum.
Ask Damon Bradshaw
You went through all that just to get to this?
"whoever finishes in front of the other guy wins the title."
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1 second or 15 seconds didn't matter to Kenny. Kenny did the smart thing and rode for next week. All he had to do was finish 2nd and ride smart to do that. Don't read anything mor than that into it. There was zero to gain by riding faster and closing the gap. Smart riders last longer than emotional riders.
TM
To be fair, AI likely did the heavy lifting
I REALLY want Kenny to win it but I think Hunter will get it done
The tiebreaker comes into play if Hunter finishes 4th or worse and Ken is right behind him. Not 18th or worse as you suggested.
To me it will all depend on Roczens start in the main (assuming both make it drama free), with a top 3 start and first lap sprint he could (🤞) do it
I know we want Kenny to win it, but Hunter will holeshot and take it.
So, possible outcomes - Hunter, Webb, Prado, Malcolm, Barcia, Roczen, Tomac
He did melt a bit but was also injured.
I saw it just like Kenny said on the podium. He was in second, made a push, but did not gain any time. Then just settled in and made sure he got second. I just hope they both get out of the first turn safe in the top 5. And then the race is on. I am on Team Roczen.
Oh yes, 4th place is 18 points, wrote the wrong thing.
Well often there are scenarios that give a slight edge to one rider in situations like this.
Mainly it was showing that Kenny’s one point lead is of no advantage to him.
Great rundown, Ando! This is going to be a dogfight.
Roczen has to finish in front of Hunter to win the championship. If Hunter and Roczen finishes tied in points Hunter wins the championship because they have the same amount of wins so it goes to Hunter has more top 5s.
No, we don't want Kenny to win, you do.
Seriously?! Why not?
Pit Row
Damn, did somebody get an essay assignment at school that requires at least six paragraphs ?
I hope it doesn't turn into a slamfest. I also hope it doesn't turn into somebody getting a holeshot and running away.
I think he means there are plenty of Aussies wanting Hunter to win, not ill feeling towards Kenny.
Plenty of Americans pulling for Hunter too, myself included.
Two factors stand out to me;
weather as of right now suggests perfect conditions. When weather hasn’t been a factor, I think 96 does better.
advantage; 96
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