At this point I have never seen anything like this in the 50 years I have followed this sport. A multi time world champion leaves the only manufacturer he has ridden for, to enter a new discipline in which he literally has no experience in, and struggles, gets hurt, then can't ride the bike in his chosen discipline, and can't/choses not to ride the bike/can't make it work, WHILE the other guy leaves a manufacturer after having won a championship and several races indoors and out to the other guys bike WHILE the other guy goes home to the only bike he has ever known, and is killing it WHILE the other guy cannot seem to ride the motorcycle he moved to.....who would have thought there would have been such a dramatic change in results between the two guys and their bikes in one year?? Nothing like we have ever seen before as far as I can remember.
Not excusing the way Prado handled the season on the green bike, but he seems to have been proven right as this season goes on. He has been amazing in SX while Chase has been the opposite. And outdoors? Yikes. And it begs mentioning how dang fast Tomac is on orange.
I can't think of another example so dramatically different between 2 riders switching teams in one season. Anyone?
Using Sexton as a example of how a bike handle is as bad as using Prado as an example for how bad the Kawasaki is.
Sexton complained about the Honda that Jett dominated on.
Sexton struggled on the KTM for one full season before he started to turn it around.
Sexton has won one race on the Kawasaki now, does he look awesome? - No, but he did not look awesome on the KTM at the beginning neither while others could ride good on that bike then.
The main thing here is that both Prado and Sexton have a really narrow window of what they want out of a bike and can’t work around it and compensate for it if it’s not 100% to their liking.
Can we just stop beating this dead horse now?
One thing seems rather obvious: once you're used to a KTM, hopping on a Kawi is not simple...
Head cases
I don’t really think it’s that simple man. People don’t get to this level by being head cases.
Do you really think Chase is out there thinking about biscuits and gravy and not intensely focused on trying to win?
He makes mistakes because of how he rides, not because his brain is weak and drifting off into La-la land.
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prado also rode a ktm/gasgas in past so its a little more like home to him
Prado was injured last year, injured this year and outside of the top 10 so far in points.
Chase is still figuring out the bike in my opinion, but there's no dramatic turn around so far.
Not like Chase is 11th overall and Prado is 5th
For the most part, I don't think what pro racers do has any impact on what the average person chooses to buy, but the disparate fates here are so extreme I think it might. Not so much due to Prado, but Tomac just looks so good and seems so happy on the KTM, whereas Chase seems dour and almost lost (so far) on the Kawi. Even the race that he won, he had to radically change the bike to do it....... and now he's radically changing it again.
It's painful to watch, whereas Tomac is just pure joy - I think maybe it could affect a person's thinking about what they'd like to purchase.
10% bike 90% rider
Prado has earned a pass from me for how he handled his situation. Kawasaki sucks, the team ruins careers. Why put your job, future and safety in jeopardy when you can ruffle a few feathers and go somewhere else? I don’t blame him one bit after seeing how their two seasons have gone so far.
Can you define killing it on the Ktm?
Chase Sexton after round seven the last five years listed below...
6th
2nd
3rd
4th
5th (11 points behind the defending champ)
Some of you act like he was the consensus #1 every year until now. He has been broken since he lost the sx championship last year. He was never the same outdoors on the ktm last year either. He is slightly worse than he has been. But his starts have been next level bad and he won one of the two races this year he didn't start last.
I said this in another thread and got downvoted. But Sexton has never been a true top tier title contender. Yes he’s won titles, but with an asterisk. And people save telling me about record books not having notes, I am aware. Sexton is exactly where I expected him to be. That said, Kawi has had issues with internal testing/setup since RC was there. It’s always the same.
And Prado is killing it this year. Fast qualifier at one race, won a heat, on the box. Had he grown up racing in the US, raced lites SX and missed basically his first full year on the big bike, he’d be crushing it by any standards. Compare his second season in 450 SX to basically any lites SX champ in the last 10 years besides Jett and get back to me.
See Matt414 for the answer to Prado killing it on the KTM. Especially considering NO ONE had his speed and consistency on the bingo card in SX this year. I would not have predicted Chase struggling as much as has either which is what my original post was referring to-these two riders specifically, switching bikes with both unexpected success and unexpected struggles. I can' think of another situation in MX history where something like this has happened.
I would like to see kawi start supporting teams like Yamaha does have 3 or more support teams and the best team get the 450 support.
I like that I get downvoted for saying the truth about Sexton. No one can argue that I am wrong though. People just dont like the truth. He’ll win the odd race and have blazing speed on occasion. But with Hunter coming around, Prado, Jett, Degan the days of talking about Chase as a title contender are done.
I am not a huge fan boy of his. But really, can anyone name a time a rider had such a turn around? Like I said even if he had been an experienced lites US SX rider he’d still be having a great season. Had he not busted up his shoulder, I really would have put him as a contender for Daytona win.
I agree prado is doing better than most thought. But Chase is just Chase. He’s not exactly lighting the world on fire but he’s obviously done far better than Prado this season. With sx injuries and such Chase is still somewhat within title contention. I don’t think this is his best year but he’s not completely out of it.
Pit Row
I wouldn't consider Prado a threat to win Daytona (or any race) unless he gets the holeshot.
Why?
What do all the "accomplishments" you listed from this year's SX season have in common?
Answer: he didn't pass a single rider in the process.
Fast qualifier: self-explanatory
Podium at A1: holeshot and fell back to 3rd
Heat win A2: holeshot
Heat win Glendale: holeshot
When he hasn't started up front he hasn't moved there by the end of the race.
And to quote someone famous, "No one can argue that I am wrong though. People just dont like the truth."
So, the only clear pattern I see is that he can go fast when unimpeded. He hasn't yet proven that he can come from behind and run down the top dogs to take a win (and a lot of folks that follow the GPs have said that describes a lot of his races in that series. I don't claim to be an expert on it so I can't comment one way or the other).
Plenty of time to change my mind, but so far he is Exhibit A for the SX nickname "StarterCross". 👍
the only problem is Prado is a holeshot prodigy, he seems like he’ll start up towards the front more than not and he’s only improving. You’re absolutely right though, at least right now he’s not starting 6th and tearing his way to the front
I would rather have prados “problem” of always starting up front and not having to pass anyone … since when has that become some crazy standard to rate riders with???
Before Prado and before the Honda's, there was a guy named Mike Alessi, he got hole shots, in spades, in heats and in mains, but he never won a 450 SX Main. Prado will win, probably not this year, but he will win races as he gets better. Starting from the front is not a bad thing, its a good thing, why pass riders 1 at a time when you can pass them all at once.
The year Jett went undefeated outdoors, didn't he win like the first 6 races without having to pass a single guy on-track?
Who was rating him? 🤔
All I said is I wouldn't consider him a threat to win unless he holeshots because he hasn't shown he can move forward when he doesn't.
Not rating him, just stating facts and an opinion based on those facts until I see something to make me change my mind. 👍
To the OP's original question, consider Mickey Diamond. 1985 on Husqvarna, finished 15th on the 250 for the season. Signs with Honda for 1986 and becomes an immediate contender and wins the 125 championship. Dramatic turnaround.
That's all I got...
Compare him to all the other lites champions of the last 5 years, excluding Jett, nd compare their first two season on the big bike and let me know. What’s Colt done? Craig?
I don't know how comparing them would lead me to consider him a threat to win Daytona this weekend. I explained why I don't consider him a threat to win (b/c his results are holeshot dependent and therefore the better his start, the better his chances of winning are) and there's been no evidence presented to the contrary to change my mind. Until he provides that evidence on the track, I'll stand pat. He's shown he can pull a holeshot and go backwards; he hasn't shown he can start in the back and move forward, so his results are very start dependent.
It's an opinion, nothing more, and others are free to disagree. 👍
He's shown speed on a clear track, but his racecraft in SX has yet to be displayed.
With one exception, I’d say the bike doesn’t matter. RC, JS, Hannah, JL18, etc., etc., would’ve won regardless of the bike. True champions find a way to win.
The exception is McGrath on Suzuki in 1997. Won 4 straight SX titles on Honda + the outdoor 95 250 premier title, loses SX title on Suzuki in 97, goes to Yamaha in 98 and wins three more SX titles.
You`re saying he hasn`t passed any riders, only goes backwards etc...
Maybe in the beginning of the season, but this is from his last two mains:
So top 5-6 on the list means that 16-17 riders went more backwards or passed less riders than him.
Micky Diamond was not a 4 time world champion before that.
A large portion of Prados drastic improvement is not orange, it's him actually trying.
The topic I was addressing was, "...I really would have put him as a contender for Daytona win."
And I said, "I wouldn't consider Prado a threat to win Daytona (or any race) unless he gets the holeshot."
And, "He hasn't yet proven that he can come from behind and run down the top dogs to take a win".
Again, I'm addressing his likelihood of winning at Daytona (and in the near future). Passing a few backmarkers hasn't gotten him anywhere near the top step on the podium yet. He's only been close (once) when he holeshot. It's just a fact some people apparently don't like having pointed out. It's not a criticism, just a fact.
Moving forward 4-5 spots and ending up 5th to 11th doesn't refute that assertion.
Could he win? Sure.
Do I think he'll win? Not based on what I've observed so far.
It's an opinion on how I think the future will unfold based on past performances, not a condemnation of the guy. 👍
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