Sexton rattled?

ando
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7/15/2023 8:20pm
I actually think Sexton leaves Millville with more confidence and Jett a bit less. Chase wanted it bad because he’s good there but washougal is going...

I actually think Sexton leaves Millville with more confidence and Jett a bit less. Chase wanted it bad because he’s good there but washougal is going to be the big showdown. Jett even said that chase is the only one that can actually run his pace and that Chase is good at the next round. 
 

If chase holeshots and leads a few laps it’ll rattle Jett. I’m a fun way though because Jett wants to be pushed. Looking forward to next weekend.

Ken did that at High Point.  It appeared that Jett didn’t get rattled.

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KurtJ99
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7/15/2023 8:22pm

I don’t think Jett will leave Milville with less confidence. Sexton never passed him. Sexton may have caught Jett 1st moto after Sexton crashed the first time, but you don’t know what Jett was holding back. 2nd moto Jett passed Sexton early in the first lap and was never challenged.

I agree it gives Chase confidence to reel in Jett in M1 regardless. 
 

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mx313
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7/15/2023 8:50pm

Something that confuses me.

It seems like all chase has to do is beat jett 1 time and it's like ppl think chase has won the battle.

 

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7/15/2023 8:54pm Edited Date/Time 7/15/2023 8:54pm
KurtJ99 wrote:
I don’t think Jett will leave Milville with less confidence. Sexton never passed him. Sexton may have caught Jett 1st moto after Sexton crashed the first...

I don’t think Jett will leave Milville with less confidence. Sexton never passed him. Sexton may have caught Jett 1st moto after Sexton crashed the first time, but you don’t know what Jett was holding back. 2nd moto Jett passed Sexton early in the first lap and was never challenged.

I agree it gives Chase confidence to reel in Jett in M1 regardless. 
 

If Jett actually had more in the tank in moto 1 (which he said he didn't), he would have used it to gap Chase - but he didn't.  The only gap came from mistakes from Chase, not Jett riding faster and picking up the pace. The lap times prove that.  In fact, he specifically said Chase is the only rider that could run his pace or even faster.  Moto 1 was getting really interesting when fuck-tard Meshy didn't get the fuck out of the way robbing us fans of a good battle for once this season in the 450s.  And note that in Moto 2, Chase actually got a little gap on Jett when Chase made the mistake of sliding the rear out before the rollers that allowed Jett to get by.  That was 100% on Chase, not Jett running a faster pace.

 

If you look at where Sexton was 3 weeks ago (the couch), to two weeks ago (off the pace at Redbud), to this week (speed was right there with Jett). and running him down in moto 1, I would say it helped Sexton mentally to know he can run the pace and the speed is there.  He just needs to limit the mistakes and once he gets out front, stay there.

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The Shop

captmoto
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7/15/2023 9:11pm
mx313 wrote:
Something that confuses me. It seems like all chase has to do is beat jett 1 time and it's like ppl think chase has won the...

Something that confuses me.

It seems like all chase has to do is beat jett 1 time and it's like ppl think chase has won the battle.

 

You are right. There is really nothing at stake here but for Chase to play spoiler on Jetts perfect season. He's 176 points behind. Jetts what, 81 points ahead of 2nd place now? I guess people just don't want to see Jett run away like he does every week.

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StillSmokin
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7/15/2023 9:41pm

Jett basically said "wow chase was right there first moto must be something off with my bike"

*Makes a bike change* Chase BBQ ensues.

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mx313
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7/15/2023 9:43pm
KurtJ99 wrote:
I don’t think Jett will leave Milville with less confidence. Sexton never passed him. Sexton may have caught Jett 1st moto after Sexton crashed the first...

I don’t think Jett will leave Milville with less confidence. Sexton never passed him. Sexton may have caught Jett 1st moto after Sexton crashed the first time, but you don’t know what Jett was holding back. 2nd moto Jett passed Sexton early in the first lap and was never challenged.

I agree it gives Chase confidence to reel in Jett in M1 regardless. 
 

TbonesPop wrote:
If Jett actually had more in the tank in moto 1 (which he said he didn't), he would have used it to gap Chase - but...

If Jett actually had more in the tank in moto 1 (which he said he didn't), he would have used it to gap Chase - but he didn't.  The only gap came from mistakes from Chase, not Jett riding faster and picking up the pace. The lap times prove that.  In fact, he specifically said Chase is the only rider that could run his pace or even faster.  Moto 1 was getting really interesting when fuck-tard Meshy didn't get the fuck out of the way robbing us fans of a good battle for once this season in the 450s.  And note that in Moto 2, Chase actually got a little gap on Jett when Chase made the mistake of sliding the rear out before the rollers that allowed Jett to get by.  That was 100% on Chase, not Jett running a faster pace.

 

If you look at where Sexton was 3 weeks ago (the couch), to two weeks ago (off the pace at Redbud), to this week (speed was right there with Jett). and running him down in moto 1, I would say it helped Sexton mentally to know he can run the pace and the speed is there.  He just needs to limit the mistakes and once he gets out front, stay there.

Every1 is clutching at straws to say things like chase gapped jett moto 2 before his mistake. We were 2 corners in. Chase had like 3-4 bike lengths before he made a mistake.

Jett is beatable but for every positive chase has had there has been way more negatives.

ATM jett doesn't have to race chase he could cruise it into the championship. 

The most simple description of today.

They were about the same speed. But chase made 4 mistakes and jett made 0.

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ando
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7/16/2023 12:57am

Just watched the full races.

On face value it seemed that in moto 2, after his crash on lap 4, Sexton decided to lay up.

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7/16/2023 1:31am

Chase needs to ride this season out and finish healthy. 24 is going to be a challenge for him with the switch to KTM. He will need all of the off season to learn and get the bike dailed whereas Jett is already established at HRC.

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Tumic
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7/16/2023 1:35am
ando wrote:

Just watched the full races.

On face value it seemed that in moto 2, after his crash on lap 4, Sexton decided to lay up.

Looking at Jetts riding, he rode alot better in the second moto to.

Comparing Chase to Tomac last year, Chase looked picture perfect and now he looks desperate trying to keep up with Jett that has the most perfect style on the bike we have ever seen.

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Scott_Bate
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7/16/2023 1:46am
ando wrote:

Just watched the full races.

On face value it seemed that in moto 2, after his crash on lap 4, Sexton decided to lay up.

I think you should go back and watch the full races again Laughing

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CPR
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7/16/2023 2:50am

I really don’t understand some of you guys? Depleted season, most boring season ever, blah blah blah….

Then someone actually shows Jett some competition and you still bag him?! Sexton may not have succeeded, but he threw everything at him and went down fighting. Isn’t that what we’ve been asking for? Or y’all rather the #23 be a minute back with the rest of the pack???

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RACING
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7/16/2023 3:08am Edited Date/Time 7/16/2023 3:10am
motodad805 wrote:
Looked like sexton gave everything he had today and still could not beat Jett. I lost track of how many times he tipped over today but...

Looked like sexton gave everything he had today and still could not beat Jett. I lost track of how many times he tipped over today but you could clearly see he wanted to beat Jett. Has to be crazy weird in the Honda semi these days. 

He lost track too. Losing track is kind of his signature move.

Laughing

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ando
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7/16/2023 5:04am
ando wrote:

Just watched the full races.

On face value it seemed that in moto 2, after his crash on lap 4, Sexton decided to lay up.

Scott_Bate wrote:
I think you should go back and watch the full races again 

I think you should go back and watch the full races again Laughing

I did watch them in full.  Here’s my take:

Race 1 - Jett gets to the lead, Chase makes a small mistake, Jett has his usual 4-5 sec lead and settles in.  Chase charges and catches him, Jett picks up the pace but can’t shake Chase.  They battle until the last lap when Chase crashes and Jett pulls away for the win.

Race 2 - Chase leads Jett out, makes a mistake and Jett goes past.  Chase charges again to catch him and crashes again on lap 4.  Jett pulls out a big lead and Chase never really gains any ground on him for the rest of the race.

Summary - I think in moto 2 after second crash that Chase decided that on this particular day, even though he could match Jett’s pace, he could only do it on the edge of control and didn’t push further.

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clem
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7/16/2023 8:12am

It seems like it is playing out like last year for Chase at these last few rounds. He went 2-2 at millville but at Washougal he started clicking with the tracks and started winning Motos again.

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Pop Shmoke
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7/16/2023 11:54am

To me its kind of hard to tell what we really learned from this weekend. 
 

On one hand it looked like chase had the speed to possibly pass jet, but he crashed multiple times over both races so this usually means a rider is riding over their head. 
 

On the other hand he was never able to close it right up on jett and jett never crashed so he may have been riding near his max but was not over it. This means jett probably still had more in the tank that he wasnt forced to use yet. 
 

So it appears that with chase riding over his head he was able to get close but not past jett and jett never looked rattled so it seems his max is beyond sextons reach. Gonna be a fun end to the season. 

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Chris_Buehler
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7/16/2023 12:04pm
Pop Shmoke wrote:
To me its kind of hard to tell what we really learned from this weekend.    On one hand it looked like chase had the speed...

To me its kind of hard to tell what we really learned from this weekend. 
 

On one hand it looked like chase had the speed to possibly pass jet, but he crashed multiple times over both races so this usually means a rider is riding over their head. 
 

On the other hand he was never able to close it right up on jett and jett never crashed so he may have been riding near his max but was not over it. This means jett probably still had more in the tank that he wasnt forced to use yet. 
 

So it appears that with chase riding over his head he was able to get close but not past jett and jett never looked rattled so it seems his max is beyond sextons reach. Gonna be a fun end to the season. 

Watch the first moto again. He was right on Jett

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Chris_Buehler
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7/16/2023 12:07pm
CPR wrote:
I really don’t understand some of you guys? Depleted season, most boring season ever, blah blah blah…. Then someone actually shows Jett some competition and you...

I really don’t understand some of you guys? Depleted season, most boring season ever, blah blah blah….

Then someone actually shows Jett some competition and you still bag him?! Sexton may not have succeeded, but he threw everything at him and went down fighting. Isn’t that what we’ve been asking for? Or y’all rather the #23 be a minute back with the rest of the pack???

Thank you. Every time I'm on here it's a new thread shitting on Chase. The dude has 45sec on everyone but Jett. We have this emerging new star the likes we've never seen before and someone actually is stepping up to challenge him and that's still not good enough. 

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NSP139
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7/16/2023 12:28pm
Boomslang wrote:
Chase needs to ride this season out and finish healthy. 24 is going to be a challenge for him with the switch to KTM. He will...

Chase needs to ride this season out and finish healthy. 24 is going to be a challenge for him with the switch to KTM. He will need all of the off season to learn and get the bike dailed whereas Jett is already established at HRC.

100% I hope they fix the frame for 24 !

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7/16/2023 1:16pm

What’s with the weird Chase hate that’s popped up here the last few months? Seems like a very mature, solid dude, with elite speed that needs to cleanup making unforced errors but has never been entitled, cocky, or a dirty rider that would earn the smack talk. 

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Gworm
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7/16/2023 1:45pm

I like Chase, but what’s that stupid looking chicken wing thing he does before the start? I saw yesterday after he did it the guy beside him kinda did it, too. 

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7/16/2023 2:02pm

My take on the weekend was Sexton seemed desperate to prove a point and it required him to push his limits to do it, and I think Jett knew that, 

when Jett lost a leg early second moto he didn’t even let it fluster him, I think he has so much self belief he was just like give this thing 15 minutes and if chase doesn’t wear himself out or tip over then I will pull the pin

He’s almost very Nikki Louder like! Risk reward type of deal

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TDeath21
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7/16/2023 2:06pm

I just don’t see any way Jett doesn’t lose a single moto with Chase that close to him. If Chase weren’t there then yes. But I just don’t see it happening with those two so close. Jett will have a bad start or a small tip over at least one time. In 02, 04, and 08, (and 05 for the perfect overall season) there was nobody even close to the pace of Carmichael and Stewart.

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dhp_mma94
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7/16/2023 2:22pm
What’s with the weird Chase hate that’s popped up here the last few months? Seems like a very mature, solid dude, with elite speed that needs...

What’s with the weird Chase hate that’s popped up here the last few months? Seems like a very mature, solid dude, with elite speed that needs to cleanup making unforced errors but has never been entitled, cocky, or a dirty rider that would earn the smack talk. 

it’s the eli tomac fanboys that feels threaten that at this point chase can match him at any time , same people that’s dis crediting the sx title cause Eli got hurt 

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RCMartin406
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7/16/2023 2:22pm

Chase only won 4 OAs last year and only went 1-1 2 times. I didn’t really expect Chase to beat Jett tbh. He doing pretty close to what I expected.

 

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aees
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7/16/2023 3:08pm

Chase is riding at 101% to stay with or catch Jett. You can only do that for a limited time before you crash. Chase has proven he can barely ride at his 100% (35min 100%) for a race so the chance of him keeping Jett behind him, even if Jett gets a 20th place start is small.

Jett is running at 99%, and can do that all season long (as RC like to call it) and keep Chase behind. He might push to 100 or beyond his limit to catch Chase but it will be for such limited time that it never becomes a problem.

Shit can always go sideways in this sport, but Jett is on his way to 22-0 unless a really bad start crash, bike give up or a lapper or Barcia takes him out.

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7/16/2023 5:03pm

Can only really compare head to head race results between Sexton and Chase.  At Pala (where Jett has always been fantastic and Chase has not), Jett's fastest lap was 0.5 seconds faster than Chase.  In Pala moto 2 where Chase and Jett smoked the rest of the field racing each other, Chase's fastest lap was .25 seconds faster than Jett's fastest lap.  

 

Then at Redbud on Chase's return, Chase was 1.5 sec a lap slower with respect to fastest laps.  Moto 2, Chase was 1.1 sec a lap slower.   Southwick - Moto 1 Chase was 0.7 sec a lap slower on the fastest laps but in Moto 2, Chase was 0.15 sec a lap faster on the fastest lap times.  At Spring Creek, Moto 1 Jett was 0.1 sec a lap faster on the fastest lap then in moto 2, Chase was 0.3 seconds a lap faster on fastest lap times.  The only other riders even remotely close to Jett's fastest laps has been Ferrandis who has been off by about 1 second a lap when he's been on point.  High point was an anomaly due to conditions in my opinion.  All other riders have been 2-5 seconds a lap slower.

 

Let's be honest about it.  Chase has had these mistake issues when racing Eli last year and quite a bit in SX - even when out in front by quite a big margin and not under any pressure.  I don't think its him racing beyond his ability or over the edge.  I think he loses focus or something.  Who knows, maybe KTM will get that bike figured out and Aldon will get Chase riding at an even higher level than he currently is.  

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7/16/2023 7:03pm
TbonesPop wrote:
Can only really compare head to head race results between Sexton and Chase.  At Pala (where Jett has always been fantastic and Chase has not), Jett's...

Can only really compare head to head race results between Sexton and Chase.  At Pala (where Jett has always been fantastic and Chase has not), Jett's fastest lap was 0.5 seconds faster than Chase.  In Pala moto 2 where Chase and Jett smoked the rest of the field racing each other, Chase's fastest lap was .25 seconds faster than Jett's fastest lap.  

 

Then at Redbud on Chase's return, Chase was 1.5 sec a lap slower with respect to fastest laps.  Moto 2, Chase was 1.1 sec a lap slower.   Southwick - Moto 1 Chase was 0.7 sec a lap slower on the fastest laps but in Moto 2, Chase was 0.15 sec a lap faster on the fastest lap times.  At Spring Creek, Moto 1 Jett was 0.1 sec a lap faster on the fastest lap then in moto 2, Chase was 0.3 seconds a lap faster on fastest lap times.  The only other riders even remotely close to Jett's fastest laps has been Ferrandis who has been off by about 1 second a lap when he's been on point.  High point was an anomaly due to conditions in my opinion.  All other riders have been 2-5 seconds a lap slower.

 

Let's be honest about it.  Chase has had these mistake issues when racing Eli last year and quite a bit in SX - even when out in front by quite a big margin and not under any pressure.  I don't think its him racing beyond his ability or over the edge.  I think he loses focus or something.  Who knows, maybe KTM will get that bike figured out and Aldon will get Chase riding at an even higher level than he currently is.  

I had heard Chase isn’t going to Aldon on pulp, but agree it seems like it would help. Dunge, RV on that program sure knew how to lead races with no drama. Seems like only a matter of time before they get the bike dialed again if history is any precedent. 

ando
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7/16/2023 7:10pm
TbonesPop wrote:
Can only really compare head to head race results between Sexton and Chase.  At Pala (where Jett has always been fantastic and Chase has not), Jett's...

Can only really compare head to head race results between Sexton and Chase.  At Pala (where Jett has always been fantastic and Chase has not), Jett's fastest lap was 0.5 seconds faster than Chase.  In Pala moto 2 where Chase and Jett smoked the rest of the field racing each other, Chase's fastest lap was .25 seconds faster than Jett's fastest lap.  

 

Then at Redbud on Chase's return, Chase was 1.5 sec a lap slower with respect to fastest laps.  Moto 2, Chase was 1.1 sec a lap slower.   Southwick - Moto 1 Chase was 0.7 sec a lap slower on the fastest laps but in Moto 2, Chase was 0.15 sec a lap faster on the fastest lap times.  At Spring Creek, Moto 1 Jett was 0.1 sec a lap faster on the fastest lap then in moto 2, Chase was 0.3 seconds a lap faster on fastest lap times.  The only other riders even remotely close to Jett's fastest laps has been Ferrandis who has been off by about 1 second a lap when he's been on point.  High point was an anomaly due to conditions in my opinion.  All other riders have been 2-5 seconds a lap slower.

 

Let's be honest about it.  Chase has had these mistake issues when racing Eli last year and quite a bit in SX - even when out in front by quite a big margin and not under any pressure.  I don't think its him racing beyond his ability or over the edge.  I think he loses focus or something.  Who knows, maybe KTM will get that bike figured out and Aldon will get Chase riding at an even higher level than he currently is.  

It’s pretty clear that Chase has the ability to run the same lap times as Jett, as you’ve pointed out.

It’s also clear that there’s a pattern of Chase crashing when running at that level.  Whether it’s technique, loss of concentration or just plain riding over his head, the results are the same and too consistent to ignore.

I suspect Jett knows this and is utilising this knowledge.  No-one (including Jett) was expecting to run a perfect season.  However I reckon he felt that he was good enough that Chase might beat him here or there but over the course of a full championship he would have Chase’s measure.  It’s a bit like RC and JS - RC knew there’d be times he couldn’t beat JS, but he also knew with a high degree of certainty that JS couldn’t do that for a whole season without at least a few minor or major crashes.

If I had to put numbers on it I think it would be something like this:

80% of the time Jett knows he can hold off Chase 

10% of the time Jett knows that Chase is faster but will crash doing it.

10% Chase is just clearly faster and Jett will let him have it.

You could tickle the numbers a bit but if those proportions hold roughly true then you are going to beat the other guy to a title every single time.

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