If one of the triple crown motos are only 10 minutes

aees
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aees 1/16/2018 11:36am
1/16/2018 11:36am
Pretty much no other rider than the top 4 last year, was in the lead for more than 2 laps.

So exactly who do you think have a chance to win after 10 laps? There is NO chance, ZERO that someone else than the regular riders wins a main (unless a huge crash in first turn).

You dont think the riders that was in lead for 2 laps was going all in for that time? They gave it all.

Suddenly you expect them to improve by 500%. Get real please.
kiwifan
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kiwifan 1/16/2018 11:41am
1/16/2018 11:41am
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top 5 do equally have a bad start)....its very possible.

the starts (as always) will be paramount and to rip off great starts in each heat and mains will be a big ask.
BobbyM
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BobbyM 1/16/2018 11:56am
1/16/2018 11:56am
aees wrote:
Pretty much no other rider than the top 4 last year, was in the lead for more than 2 laps. So exactly who do you think...
Pretty much no other rider than the top 4 last year, was in the lead for more than 2 laps.

So exactly who do you think have a chance to win after 10 laps? There is NO chance, ZERO that someone else than the regular riders wins a main (unless a huge crash in first turn).

You dont think the riders that was in lead for 2 laps was going all in for that time? They gave it all.

Suddenly you expect them to improve by 500%. Get real please.
You say NO chance then post up a chance. Which is it?
aees
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aees 1/16/2018 12:00pm
1/16/2018 12:00pm
kiwifan wrote:
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top...
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top 5 do equally have a bad start)....its very possible.

the starts (as always) will be paramount and to rip off great starts in each heat and mains will be a big ask.
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the lead after 1 or 2 laps.

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aees
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aees 1/16/2018 12:03pm
1/16/2018 12:03pm
aees wrote:
Pretty much no other rider than the top 4 last year, was in the lead for more than 2 laps. So exactly who do you think...
Pretty much no other rider than the top 4 last year, was in the lead for more than 2 laps.

So exactly who do you think have a chance to win after 10 laps? There is NO chance, ZERO that someone else than the regular riders wins a main (unless a huge crash in first turn).

You dont think the riders that was in lead for 2 laps was going all in for that time? They gave it all.

Suddenly you expect them to improve by 500%. Get real please.
BobbyM wrote:
You say NO chance then post up a chance. Which is it?
I think you get it, or? There is no chance any other rider than top 4 will win during normal circumstances. Of course, if all top 4 is taken out in a start crash it may be a shot for it. We could also face a situation where non of top 4 makes it to night show.

Come on...
ATKpilot99
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ATKpilot99 1/16/2018 12:09pm
1/16/2018 12:09pm
Roczen takes it with a 1-2-1
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Johnny Depp 1/16/2018 12:10pm
1/16/2018 12:10pm
This is really taking the perceived drama out of this weekend. Imagine how good it makes us feel about 20 minute races having an upset winner.
aees
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aees 1/16/2018 12:15pm
1/16/2018 12:15pm
I think drama will be added, because riding will be much much more aggressive all over the field. No one will give up a spot that easily, and people will ride more aggressive to make moves forward.

So we should expect more intense riding between lap 4-8 than we usually see. Winners will be the same, but more blood will be spilled Tongue Laughing Shocked
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mauidex 1/16/2018 12:31pm
1/16/2018 12:31pm
ATKpilot99 wrote:
Roczen takes it with a 1-2-1
I say 1-1-3??
Forty
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Forty 1/16/2018 12:38pm
1/16/2018 12:38pm
The fact that it is a sprint will create much more urgency for the start IMO, this makes the percentages greater for a problem in the first corner....

Anything could happen and that includes a greater opportunity for new people on the box.

Brayton/Peick/Seely/Reed/Bagget or even Grant -- or any of the top 10 will get really wide or push really hard if it means a win and only having to do it for 10 laps, 8 minutes.

I'm looking forward to seeing the new format in action.

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RandyS 1/16/2018 12:41pm
1/16/2018 12:41pm
With 3 short mains I'd say Barcia may be the favorite this weekend.
paul937
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paul937 1/16/2018 12:59pm
1/16/2018 12:59pm
F150Motocrosser wrote:
I get what people are saying about "potential winners" for these shorter mains.... but... when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium...
I get what people are saying about "potential winners" for these shorter mains.... but... when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium rider led for the first 10 minutes of a race, only to eventually be caught by the Dungey/Marvin/Eli/Kenny's of the world?????
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind Whistling

# NAME LAPS LED
10 Justin Brayton 13
1 Ryan Villopoto 7

LAP # LAP LEADER GAP
1 10 Justin Brayton 1.185
2 10 Justin Brayton 1.279
3 10 Justin Brayton 1.107
4 10 Justin Brayton 0.820
5 10 Justin Brayton 0.582
6 10 Justin Brayton 1.681
7 10 Justin Brayton 2.797
8 10 Justin Brayton 2.097
9 10 Justin Brayton 1.318
10 10 Justin Brayton 1.056
11 10 Justin Brayton 0.539
12 10 Justin Brayton 1.073
13 10 Justin Brayton 0.459
14 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.793
15 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.881
16 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.626
17 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.942
18 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.314
19 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.129
20 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.032

Asimo
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Asimo 1/16/2018 12:59pm
1/16/2018 12:59pm Edited Date/Time 1/16/2018 1:07pm
The mains get progressively longer from what I read. About 38 mins total time for 450s.
F150Motocrosser 1/16/2018 1:01pm
1/16/2018 1:01pm
F150Motocrosser wrote:
I get what people are saying about "potential winners" for these shorter mains.... but... when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium...
I get what people are saying about "potential winners" for these shorter mains.... but... when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium rider led for the first 10 minutes of a race, only to eventually be caught by the Dungey/Marvin/Eli/Kenny's of the world?????
paul937 wrote:
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind :whistle: # NAME LAPS LED 10 Justin Brayton 13 1 Ryan Villopoto 7 LAP # LAP LEADER GAP 1 10 Justin...
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind Whistling

# NAME LAPS LED
10 Justin Brayton 13
1 Ryan Villopoto 7

LAP # LAP LEADER GAP
1 10 Justin Brayton 1.185
2 10 Justin Brayton 1.279
3 10 Justin Brayton 1.107
4 10 Justin Brayton 0.820
5 10 Justin Brayton 0.582
6 10 Justin Brayton 1.681
7 10 Justin Brayton 2.797
8 10 Justin Brayton 2.097
9 10 Justin Brayton 1.318
10 10 Justin Brayton 1.056
11 10 Justin Brayton 0.539
12 10 Justin Brayton 1.073
13 10 Justin Brayton 0.459
14 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.793
15 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.881
16 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.626
17 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.942
18 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.314
19 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.129
20 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.032

One race from 4 years ago. Sounds about right. Just checking.
ATKpilot99
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ATKpilot99 1/16/2018 1:14pm
1/16/2018 1:14pm
ATKpilot99 wrote:
Roczen takes it with a 1-2-1
mauidex wrote:
I say 1-1-3??
Maybe . It will also be a chance for Webb to stay on the lead lap Smile
paul937
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paul937 1/16/2018 1:26pm
1/16/2018 1:26pm
F150Motocrosser wrote:
I get what people are saying about "potential winners" for these shorter mains.... but... when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium...
I get what people are saying about "potential winners" for these shorter mains.... but... when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium rider led for the first 10 minutes of a race, only to eventually be caught by the Dungey/Marvin/Eli/Kenny's of the world?????
paul937 wrote:
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind :whistle: # NAME LAPS LED 10 Justin Brayton 13 1 Ryan Villopoto 7 LAP # LAP LEADER GAP 1 10 Justin...
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind Whistling

# NAME LAPS LED
10 Justin Brayton 13
1 Ryan Villopoto 7

LAP # LAP LEADER GAP
1 10 Justin Brayton 1.185
2 10 Justin Brayton 1.279
3 10 Justin Brayton 1.107
4 10 Justin Brayton 0.820
5 10 Justin Brayton 0.582
6 10 Justin Brayton 1.681
7 10 Justin Brayton 2.797
8 10 Justin Brayton 2.097
9 10 Justin Brayton 1.318
10 10 Justin Brayton 1.056
11 10 Justin Brayton 0.539
12 10 Justin Brayton 1.073
13 10 Justin Brayton 0.459
14 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.793
15 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.881
16 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.626
17 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.942
18 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.314
19 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.129
20 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.032

F150Motocrosser wrote:
One race from 4 years ago. Sounds about right. Just checking.
Sorry, maybe I misunderstood your question?

You asked: "when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium rider led for the first 10 minutes of a race, only to eventually be caught by the Dungey/Marvin/Eli/Kenny's of the world?????"

So I answered lol

However if you wanna get technical and imply that it was "just that once" (which is what it sounds like from your response above) I'm sure I can find a few more (not just from JB of course, since we're talking about multiple "other" riders having a shot, but for the record, off the top of my head I know JB alone has lead meaningful laps in a main at least one other time)

Paul
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kiwifan 1/16/2018 1:30pm
1/16/2018 1:30pm
kiwifan wrote:
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top...
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top 5 do equally have a bad start)....its very possible.

the starts (as always) will be paramount and to rip off great starts in each heat and mains will be a big ask.
aees wrote:
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the...
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the lead after 1 or 2 laps.
you did see the word 'possible' in my post didn't you? Smile
BobbyM
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BobbyM 1/16/2018 1:32pm
1/16/2018 1:32pm
paul937 wrote:
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind :whistle: # NAME LAPS LED 10 Justin Brayton 13 1 Ryan Villopoto 7 LAP # LAP LEADER GAP 1 10 Justin...
Phoenix 2014 comes to mind Whistling

# NAME LAPS LED
10 Justin Brayton 13
1 Ryan Villopoto 7

LAP # LAP LEADER GAP
1 10 Justin Brayton 1.185
2 10 Justin Brayton 1.279
3 10 Justin Brayton 1.107
4 10 Justin Brayton 0.820
5 10 Justin Brayton 0.582
6 10 Justin Brayton 1.681
7 10 Justin Brayton 2.797
8 10 Justin Brayton 2.097
9 10 Justin Brayton 1.318
10 10 Justin Brayton 1.056
11 10 Justin Brayton 0.539
12 10 Justin Brayton 1.073
13 10 Justin Brayton 0.459
14 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.793
15 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.881
16 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.626
17 1 Ryan Villopoto 0.942
18 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.314
19 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.129
20 1 Ryan Villopoto 1.032

F150Motocrosser wrote:
One race from 4 years ago. Sounds about right. Just checking.
paul937 wrote:
Sorry, maybe I misunderstood your question? You asked: "when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium rider led for the first 10...
Sorry, maybe I misunderstood your question?

You asked: "when was the last time Peick, Brayton or any other non-typical podium rider led for the first 10 minutes of a race, only to eventually be caught by the Dungey/Marvin/Eli/Kenny's of the world?????"

So I answered lol

However if you wanna get technical and imply that it was "just that once" (which is what it sounds like from your response above) I'm sure I can find a few more (not just from JB of course, since we're talking about multiple "other" riders having a shot, but for the record, off the top of my head I know JB alone has lead meaningful laps in a main at least one other time)

Paul
Paul how are you? Raiders next year?

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loftyair
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loftyair 1/16/2018 1:41pm
1/16/2018 1:41pm
Seely maybe. It now takes even less 'being in shape' to win at the highest level. If you can rip for 3 seconds, like on the start, you could win! Outdoor moto is so much gnarlier.
paul937
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paul937 1/16/2018 1:46pm
1/16/2018 1:46pm
kiwifan wrote:
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top...
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top 5 do equally have a bad start)....its very possible.

the starts (as always) will be paramount and to rip off great starts in each heat and mains will be a big ask.
aees wrote:
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the...
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the lead after 1 or 2 laps.
AP # LAP LEADER GAP
1 6 Jeremy Martin 0.515
2 6 Jeremy Martin 1.464
3 6 Jeremy Martin 1.225
4 6 Jeremy Martin 0.913
5 6 Jeremy Martin 0.454
6 6 Jeremy Martin 0.880
7 6 Jeremy Martin 1.927
8 6 Jeremy Martin 1.862
9 6 Jeremy Martin 1.804
10 6 Jeremy Martin 0.827
11 3 Eli Tomac 1.249
12 3 Eli Tomac 4.087
13 3 Eli Tomac 6.024
14 3 Eli Tomac 8.622
15 3 Eli Tomac 9.968
16 3 Eli Tomac 11.491
17 3 Eli Tomac 12.700
18 3 Eli Tomac 13.046
19 3 Eli Tomac 16.102
20 3 Eli Tomac 17.618
paul937
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paul937 1/16/2018 1:55pm
1/16/2018 1:55pm
"Paul how are you? Raiders next year?"

Bobby!! What's up buddy? Long time no talk!
To answer your question, yes, it's true, the Raiders will still suck next year Wink

Silly Whistling (although I am pretty impressed with them snagging Gruden! Brilliant move, he's a stud)

Hope all is well with you!
Paul
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BobbyM 1/16/2018 1:59pm
1/16/2018 1:59pm
You too man. You still hitting the races I assume.
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KirkChandler 1/16/2018 2:06pm
1/16/2018 2:06pm
The first main event being 8 minutes plus a lap, is similar to a heat race length. How many guys have won heat races in the past couple years? (yeah I know it will be a full field and for more than a gate pick)

But It will be an all out fight for a guy instead of just a heat win.

Heat winners from 2018: (2 Main Event Winners so far)
1. Anderson
2. Barcia
3. Roczen

Heat winners from 2017: (5 Main Event winners)
1. Dungey
2. Tomac
3. Roczen
4. Anderson
5. Millsaps
6. Webb
7. Bogle
8. Baggett
9. Reed
10. Barcia
11. Musquin
12. Seely
13. Grant

Heat winners from 2016: (4 Main Event winners)
1. Dungey
2. Tomac
3. Roczen
4. Canard
5. Wilson
6. Millsaps
7. Anderson
8. Brayton
9. Musquin
10. Alessi
11. Bogle

Heat winners from 2015: (6 Main Event winners)
1. Dungey
2. Short
3. Roczen
4. Tomac
5. Seely
6. Alessi
7. Barcia
8. Canard
9. Reed
10. Pieck
500guy
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500guy 1/16/2018 2:11pm
1/16/2018 2:11pm
I'll take Mookie for 8 minutes Bob
aees
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aees 1/16/2018 2:20pm
1/16/2018 2:20pm
kiwifan wrote:
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top...
I think its valid to think that a rider who isnt in the top 5 could easily rip off a holeshot and win (if the top 5 do equally have a bad start)....its very possible.

the starts (as always) will be paramount and to rip off great starts in each heat and mains will be a big ask.
aees wrote:
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the...
What do you base that on? for 17 races last year, there was not one single race where anyone else then top guys was in the lead after 1 or 2 laps.
paul937 wrote:
AP # LAP LEADER GAP 1 6 Jeremy Martin 0.515 2 6 Jeremy Martin 1.464 3 6 Jeremy Martin 1.225 4 6 Jeremy Martin 0.913 5...
AP # LAP LEADER GAP
1 6 Jeremy Martin 0.515
2 6 Jeremy Martin 1.464
3 6 Jeremy Martin 1.225
4 6 Jeremy Martin 0.913
5 6 Jeremy Martin 0.454
6 6 Jeremy Martin 0.880
7 6 Jeremy Martin 1.927
8 6 Jeremy Martin 1.862
9 6 Jeremy Martin 1.804
10 6 Jeremy Martin 0.827
11 3 Eli Tomac 1.249
12 3 Eli Tomac 4.087
13 3 Eli Tomac 6.024
14 3 Eli Tomac 8.622
15 3 Eli Tomac 9.968
16 3 Eli Tomac 11.491
17 3 Eli Tomac 12.700
18 3 Eli Tomac 13.046
19 3 Eli Tomac 16.102
20 3 Eli Tomac 17.618
So there was one event last year. And year before and so on.

You can't compare heat races to mains, you have twice the field. Again, look at how many laps in general someone else than top 4 has lead. Something like 95% of the laps on a whole season mains is lead by them and in general the temp leader is passed within 1 lap, exceptions 2 laps.

Martin was a one off thing last year.
aees
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aees 1/16/2018 2:26pm
1/16/2018 2:26pm
4 laps last year was not lead by top 4 if you remove Martins one off, FOUR laps in a full season (or 14 if you calculate Martin).

Those 14 was splitt on 3 riders, where of Martin did 10.

So no, this will not generate new winners in general.
Dirty Points 1/16/2018 2:57pm
1/16/2018 2:57pm Edited Date/Time 1/16/2018 2:59pm
aees wrote:
4 laps last year was not lead by top 4 if you remove Martins one off, FOUR laps in a full season (or 14 if you...
4 laps last year was not lead by top 4 if you remove Martins one off, FOUR laps in a full season (or 14 if you calculate Martin).

Those 14 was splitt on 3 riders, where of Martin did 10.

So no, this will not generate new winners in general.
Which 3 riders split those laps, and are any of them retired, prone to missing mains this season, or coming back from a major career-threatening injury?
Lawrence929 1/16/2018 3:05pm
1/16/2018 3:05pm
Why would you go all out to win the first one, then be gassed for main 2, which is longer, you are in 7th, then be totally fucked for the third main, and get 12th.

1-7-12 = 20 points= You didn't win shit.

Where do I have this twisted? I hope I have this wrong.
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kkawboy14 1/16/2018 3:12pm
1/16/2018 3:12pm
Lawrence929 wrote:
Why would you go all out to win the first one, then be gassed for main 2, which is longer, you are in 7th, then be...
Why would you go all out to win the first one, then be gassed for main 2, which is longer, you are in 7th, then be totally fucked for the third main, and get 12th.

1-7-12 = 20 points= You didn't win shit.

Where do I have this twisted? I hope I have this wrong.
You beat the guy that finished 3-6-13
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downard254 1/17/2018 4:00am
1/17/2018 4:00am
ATKpilot99 wrote:
Roczen takes it with a 1-2-1
mauidex wrote:
I say 1-1-3??
I’d buy the 1-1-3, but with that, I could see Anderson run a 2-2-1. Now 5 points each, but Anderson gets the overall on the last moto win. Correct? I’m sure this won’t confuse the casual fan, but they’ll probably be too drunk to get it anyway. I’m pretty interested to see how this plays out through the TV program. If it’s a hit, I could almost see them switch over to it for all of next season. Stranger things have happened.

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