Recession...

JM485
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Davis, CA, USA
7/28/2022 9:13pm
Zycki11 wrote:
They will, wait and watch for it q1 of 2023. The recession won’t happen until AFTER November. Then watch as major hitters like Walmart, target etc...
They will, wait and watch for it q1 of 2023. The recession won’t happen until AFTER November. Then watch as major hitters like Walmart, target etc start laying off employees and selling things at discounts because nobody can purchase anything.

Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft all posted poor earnings and below the mark reports. But our stock market is rocketing the last two days. What does that tell you? It is controlled by banks and hedge funds and is merely a laundering scheme. It no longer functions on logic or supply and demand.

2023 will be the worst year of this
I think we’re back into the “bad news is good news zone” where everyone is waiting for a Fed pivot. It’s looking more and more likely that we’ve hit the peak in inflation, and we’re seeing slowing growth, which points to a pause in interest rate hikes that the bond market is pricing in. I think this is probably a bear market rally, but you never know it could really have some legs if the Fed put plays out.

It is getting rough out there though, we just had another round of layoffs at work and I’m not sure if I’ll make it through another one or not. . .
1
TXDirt
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7/29/2022 3:11am
The fed has raised interest rates a total of 225 basis points since Biden was elected.

Inflation is up 14.49% cumulative since Biden was elected.

On top of that, the Dow is tracking -20% lower at the same point in Biden’s term vs Trump’s term.

But hey, no mean tweets amirite?
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2
MudPup545
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Imlay City, MI, USA
7/29/2022 3:26am
And here comes the spin……


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1

The Shop

Jeremy A.K.
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7/29/2022 3:38am
MudPup545 wrote:
And here comes the spin…… [img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2022/07/29/561695/s1200_BD114F98_DDA7_4D65_8B8B_D086E622620A.jpg[/img]
And here comes the spin……


I work with a crazy brain washed liberal , I get to hear his wild spins almost daily.
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TXDirt
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7/29/2022 5:34am
If you can change the definition of a woman you can change the definition of a recession.
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1
7/29/2022 5:34am
TXDirt wrote:
The fed has raised interest rates a total of 225 basis points since Biden was elected. Inflation is up 14.49% cumulative since Biden was elected. On...
The fed has raised interest rates a total of 225 basis points since Biden was elected.

Inflation is up 14.49% cumulative since Biden was elected.

On top of that, the Dow is tracking -20% lower at the same point in Biden’s term vs Trump’s term.

But hey, no mean tweets amirite?
I see what you did there......"-20% lower"

2
Not-a-Fan
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7/29/2022 5:56am Edited Date/Time 7/29/2022 5:57am
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
2
7/29/2022 6:53am
Brad460 wrote:
Maybe Biden can give out some stimulus checks to get us out of this recession :laugh: Look for the liberal media to list reasons why “a...
Maybe Biden can give out some stimulus checks to get us out of this recession Laughing

Look for the liberal media to list reasons why “a recession is good for you”…to match the previous “ why inflation is good for you” and why “high gas prices are good for you” articles…
plowboy wrote:
Well, the truth is...if you are an oil company or stock holder...you ain't bitching about gas prices are you?
Brad460 wrote:
Well, actually as someone who works for an oil and gas company, this is not a desirable situation. Short term record profit (boom) due to high...
Well, actually as someone who works for an oil and gas company, this is not a desirable situation. Short term record profit (boom) due to high energy prices leads to a recession. Recession leads to a bust. A bust will lead to major job losses.

It’s much more preferable to have steady $70 a barrel oil prices and ~$2.80 gas. You know, what we saw during Trump years.. Instead Biden and Democrats immediately went on the attack against fossil fuels, which reduced investment resulting in our record high prices..

Yes he did 44 regulations against the oil industry. I was in west Texas testing and hauling crude oil. The big leases all went online- a pipeline going to a transfer pipeline. You hv to get your money back some how. I saw the lack of freight since last Oct. November is supposed to b a month to remember. A lot of money to b made and there was hardly a ld available in Chicago for a reefer trl . Feb 12 at 4pm a Fri moved into trk 4. Co is willing to take any ld out of Chicago the biggest trucking hub in the country. 2nd shift dispatch calls for the last time at 1.30 am and says sorry sir I can’t find a ld out. Sat at 3pm I finally got a ld and had to drive 160 mi to Wi. 7,800 trks mt and avail for work in a 200 mi radius only 87 loads available. I told Melous Serbian dispatch kick it to 250 mi incase your parameters r off. Only 7 lds more on the ld boards. That covers iL. Wi., Mi. And Indiana. Lds that paid 5,200 in the last 3 months pay 1,800. That only covers fuel and tolls. Co.s going bankrupt and wages r down or frozen. Late April the trk yard had 99% shutdown or bankrupt. The 7,800 to 87 ratio was the opposite in 18 to 20. Actually much higher so the rates where record highs. The economy was on fire. With biden a short amount of time it’s worse than in 08. My co said there assists r frozen they owe me ovr 17k.
3
7/29/2022 7:48am
You're all drama queens, it's transitory, I saw it on the news.
They would never lie about something like that.
1
LoudLove
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7/29/2022 7:57am
ToolMaker wrote:
You're all drama queens, it's transitory, I saw it on the news.
They would never lie about something like that.
It’s all transitory in the grand scheme of things. Things will get better. And worse. Guaranteed.

Can’t depend on D.C. to fix anything. So go fix it yourself! In fact, I’m gonna fix myself a drink and think good thoughts from the luxury of my pool. Could things be better? Sure. But they could also be a helluva lot worse.
3
AZ35
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Peoria, AZ, USA
Fantasy
7/29/2022 9:00am
Headline of today's Phoenix Business Journal-

"Homebuilders see an alarming surge in new home cancellations"

Though this article was directed locally (Phoenix Business Journal), the Homebuilders quoted this trend nationwide.

Can't be a surprise to anyone, but this is how the housing bubble starts to pop. Builders stuck with too much inventory and the buyers are spooked. Gotta start offering incentives to move inventory.

For a while the homebuilders won't cut the advertised list prices, they just offer increasingly huge discounts off of base. Can't adjust the price sheet, as that will freak out the other existing buyers under contract but facing a 8-12 month construction timeline.

But eventually the word gets out, the cancellations continue, discounts increase, and housing comes down to reality.

Which will only increase the slowdown of the US economy, people are no longer looking at huge paper profit valuations on their homes so they feel "poorer". They stop spending money they no longer have (well they never had it in the first place- just home equity that no longer exists).
2
Falcon
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7/29/2022 9:14am
^One way in which a recession will sometimes help. I'm buying a home next spring. We'll see how much cheaper houses are at that time.
LoudLove
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7/29/2022 9:36am
Falcon wrote:
^One way in which a recession will sometimes help. I'm buying a home next spring. We'll see how much cheaper houses are at that time.
Cash buyers will be in the catbird seat as mortgage rates and inventories climb. (What is a catbird seat, anyway?)
Zycki11
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7/29/2022 10:02am Edited Date/Time 7/29/2022 10:04am
Not-a-Fan wrote:
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call...
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed. In this case, it has stalled because the actual orders have gone down because of log jams

If your kid is sick and he feels better one day than the next do you automatically assume he is over it? No, you wait for repetitive signs they have tackled the issue and are back to normal
1
jchek779
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Kannapolis, NC, USA
7/29/2022 10:18am
Not-a-Fan wrote:
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call...
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
This sounds a lot like this: Dungey got 7th...then he got 6th....then he got 4th......The fact is he still lost the fucking race.
So Let's ignore the fact that he lost the fucking race and give every one a participation award for just signing up.
1
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TeamGreen
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7/29/2022 10:31am
[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2022/07/29/561734/s1200_bikes.jpg[/img]

This Administration is straight out of Orwell’s 1984…

Control the Language
Manipulative Narrative
Indoctrination

Allllllll based on non-reality and completely without reason.

Bring on November. We’re gonna have an all new “Whataboutism” era from The Narrative Following Minions; and, I’ll still be shaking my head and wondering why they can’t think for themselves…for just a second…

Why can’t they reason or draw their own conclusions?
Why can’t they see thru The Narrative?
Have they always been “followers”?
Would I -ever- take one of them into The Never-Never of Baja & trust that they could find their way out? (Uh, no)
Would I -ever- “be in theater” with them? (Hell, no!)

Do I trust someone that’s spent 5 years telling me I’m a racist, bigot, that there are “so many genders”, that a man is a woman, that criminals don’t need to be punished, that their riots are “peaceful protests”…and Black Lives Matter; but, anything from the right side of the aisle is racist or whatever, that thinks it’s ok to harass SCOTUS Justices, that think it’s alright to kill a Gulf Vet because she was part of the wrong riot/protest, that fuel themselves with pure unadulterated hate, that presume they’re “the smart guy in the room”, that want to tell me how the 2nd Amendment is BS …yet, they don’t even know jack shit about the Constitution nor its intent, that do nothing more than “cut-n-paste” their way thru the day…

Do I trust these same people that Justify the Epic Fail that is Joe Biden & STILL try to tell us he was “the better alternative”?

Hell NO!

So, as I almost always say, we’ll see them in November when they’re losing their shit over the “pendulum swing” that they brought on as they followed CNN down the Orwellian rabbit hole.

Revolution Calling
11
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Not-a-Fan
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UpMeOwnBum, CA, USA
7/29/2022 11:03am
Not-a-Fan wrote:
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call...
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
Zycki11 wrote:
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed...
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed. In this case, it has stalled because the actual orders have gone down because of log jams

If your kid is sick and he feels better one day than the next do you automatically assume he is over it? No, you wait for repetitive signs they have tackled the issue and are back to normal
I agree but the sniffles are different than the flu. Imo we are in the sniffles stage and we are not sure if we have spring time allergies or a full blown sickness. I'm just saying with the current data calling it a recession is premature. By definition -10% q1 gdp print and a -0.1% q2 print would be considered a recession if I understand correctly. But I would not consider that a recession, instead rather a hell of a recovery even though we still have a contracting gdp. Idk I'm not an economist and I'm not here to argue just figured it was something worth keeping in mind.
1
Not-a-Fan
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UpMeOwnBum, CA, USA
7/29/2022 11:06am
Not-a-Fan wrote:
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call...
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
jchek779 wrote:
This sounds a lot like this: Dungey got 7th...then he got 6th....then he got 4th......The fact is he still lost the fucking race. So Let's ignore...
This sounds a lot like this: Dungey got 7th...then he got 6th....then he got 4th......The fact is he still lost the fucking race.
So Let's ignore the fact that he lost the fucking race and give every one a participation award for just signing up.
But we refer to this as charging hard in racing. Charging hard could be argued as being synonymous with a recovery from a recession that is already over. Besides relax man, were just having a discussion I'm not here to attack you
7/29/2022 12:55pm
[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2022/07/29/561734/s1200_bikes.jpg[/img]

TeamGreen wrote:
This Administration is straight out of Orwell’s 1984… Control the Language Manipulative Narrative Indoctrination Allllllll based on non-reality and completely without reason. Bring on November. We’re...
This Administration is straight out of Orwell’s 1984…

Control the Language
Manipulative Narrative
Indoctrination

Allllllll based on non-reality and completely without reason.

Bring on November. We’re gonna have an all new “Whataboutism” era from The Narrative Following Minions; and, I’ll still be shaking my head and wondering why they can’t think for themselves…for just a second…

Why can’t they reason or draw their own conclusions?
Why can’t they see thru The Narrative?
Have they always been “followers”?
Would I -ever- take one of them into The Never-Never of Baja & trust that they could find their way out? (Uh, no)
Would I -ever- “be in theater” with them? (Hell, no!)

Do I trust someone that’s spent 5 years telling me I’m a racist, bigot, that there are “so many genders”, that a man is a woman, that criminals don’t need to be punished, that their riots are “peaceful protests”…and Black Lives Matter; but, anything from the right side of the aisle is racist or whatever, that thinks it’s ok to harass SCOTUS Justices, that think it’s alright to kill a Gulf Vet because she was part of the wrong riot/protest, that fuel themselves with pure unadulterated hate, that presume they’re “the smart guy in the room”, that want to tell me how the 2nd Amendment is BS …yet, they don’t even know jack shit about the Constitution nor its intent, that do nothing more than “cut-n-paste” their way thru the day…

Do I trust these same people that Justify the Epic Fail that is Joe Biden & STILL try to tell us he was “the better alternative”?

Hell NO!

So, as I almost always say, we’ll see them in November when they’re losing their shit over the “pendulum swing” that they brought on as they followed CNN down the Orwellian rabbit hole.

Revolution Calling
Regarding the control the language

by changing the meanings of words, you are there by changing the meaning of laws without actually changing the laws.

this is what is happening.

4
1
Zycki11
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Edwardsville, IL, USA
7/29/2022 2:03pm
Not-a-Fan wrote:
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call...
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
Zycki11 wrote:
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed...
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed. In this case, it has stalled because the actual orders have gone down because of log jams

If your kid is sick and he feels better one day than the next do you automatically assume he is over it? No, you wait for repetitive signs they have tackled the issue and are back to normal
Not-a-Fan wrote:
I agree but the sniffles are different than the flu. Imo we are in the sniffles stage and we are not sure if we have spring...
I agree but the sniffles are different than the flu. Imo we are in the sniffles stage and we are not sure if we have spring time allergies or a full blown sickness. I'm just saying with the current data calling it a recession is premature. By definition -10% q1 gdp print and a -0.1% q2 print would be considered a recession if I understand correctly. But I would not consider that a recession, instead rather a hell of a recovery even though we still have a contracting gdp. Idk I'm not an economist and I'm not here to argue just figured it was something worth keeping in mind.
The larger problem is in the grand scheme. Housing, production, supply issues, retail spending power, etc etc etc. The S&P 500 is derived from the largest companies in the US. Yet 75% are deep red outside of your large tech companies holding it together IE Apple, Google, Microsoft, Tesla etc. These companies all have government contracts as well.....

GDP numbers have been skewed hence the recession argument. Even by todays "standards" we are in a recession, but if you went by the 80's and normal standards we are DEEPLY in a recession. Furthermore, it will continue to get worse.... Watch for Christmas and early next year how bad things get.
4
Not-a-Fan
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7/29/2022 3:01pm
Zycki11 wrote:
The larger problem is in the grand scheme. Housing, production, supply issues, retail spending power, etc etc etc. The S&P 500 is derived from the largest...
The larger problem is in the grand scheme. Housing, production, supply issues, retail spending power, etc etc etc. The S&P 500 is derived from the largest companies in the US. Yet 75% are deep red outside of your large tech companies holding it together IE Apple, Google, Microsoft, Tesla etc. These companies all have government contracts as well.....

GDP numbers have been skewed hence the recession argument. Even by todays "standards" we are in a recession, but if you went by the 80's and normal standards we are DEEPLY in a recession. Furthermore, it will continue to get worse.... Watch for Christmas and early next year how bad things get.
I think those are valid points.

Unfortunately I am not well versed enough to debate economics too deep tbh.Unsure
moto162
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Chicago, IL, USA
7/29/2022 3:03pm
Not-a-Fan wrote:
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call...
If the gdp was at -1.6% and now it's at -0.9%, it could be at -0.1% or even positive growth next quarter. Why would they call it a recession? To create panic for 1 quarter??
Zycki11 wrote:
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed...
The slowing of a negative GDP still correlates as a recession either way you look at it. Even if it is slowing the factors have changed. In this case, it has stalled because the actual orders have gone down because of log jams

If your kid is sick and he feels better one day than the next do you automatically assume he is over it? No, you wait for repetitive signs they have tackled the issue and are back to normal
Not-a-Fan wrote:
I agree but the sniffles are different than the flu. Imo we are in the sniffles stage and we are not sure if we have spring...
I agree but the sniffles are different than the flu. Imo we are in the sniffles stage and we are not sure if we have spring time allergies or a full blown sickness. I'm just saying with the current data calling it a recession is premature. By definition -10% q1 gdp print and a -0.1% q2 print would be considered a recession if I understand correctly. But I would not consider that a recession, instead rather a hell of a recovery even though we still have a contracting gdp. Idk I'm not an economist and I'm not here to argue just figured it was something worth keeping in mind.
But it's not in what should be no mater what a more profitable quarter vs the previous quarter due to the time of year still being negative is huge and only a sign of what's to come later. Being negative and still going further negative still makes a bigger net loss. Not to mention the fact that like last quarter I'm sure in a few weeks it will get adjusted down further like last time.
1
early
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University Heights, OH, USA
7/29/2022 6:04pm
A recession isn't really that big of a deal, the government will just send everyone $2k stimulus checks and everyone can live that for 2 years without working,
5
Zycki11
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7/29/2022 10:25pm
early wrote:
A recession isn't really that big of a deal, the government will just send everyone $2k stimulus checks and everyone can live that for 2 years...
A recession isn't really that big of a deal, the government will just send everyone $2k stimulus checks and everyone can live that for 2 years without working,
That is the exact problem. When you have inflation you need supply to continue while demand decreases so the prices are no longer inflated. What are major reasons we have previously gotten out of inflationary periods and or depression? War

So why was War so important for the economy and why have we continuously been in some form? Production... Providing jobs that pay which recycles back into the economy. It essentially is killing two birds with one stone by creating supply by demand. When the world advanced war no longer has production of tanks, trucks, weapons, planes, choppers, jeeps, equipment etc. The US started turning to the private sector (large rich companies like oil, hedge funds, private security and asked for loans from them) Fast forward to when the banks got greedy with credit default swaps and the housing market 2008. Banks over leveraged and the US gov printed money to bail them out. Today we have a new concerning issue with macro economics.

More debt(housing), more printed money(inflationary gasoline), less goods(wood pellets), high demand(kerosine), and no workers(empty fire extinguisher). We do not have a way out of this mess that has not only been created, expanded upon, and kicked down the road. We are producing less, production costs are high due to wages and slow supply for demand correlation, and we continue to spend more money. If you take this simple economical issue and then add in the housing that will have many homes turn from assets to debt, banks will be on the hook for further foreclosures, 401k getting wrecked, bonds getting wrecked, high energy costs with zero actual relief in sight, PCI being high. We have endless major issues. The average american needs to wake the hell up and understand just how bad things are, the sham the WH is putting on and how it pushes the wealth gap further apart, and the lies being told daly.

DISGUSTING
9
RonSkj
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Radiator Springs, CA, USA
Fantasy
7/30/2022 12:35am
early wrote:
A recession isn't really that big of a deal, the government will just send everyone $2k stimulus checks and everyone can live that for 2 years...
A recession isn't really that big of a deal, the government will just send everyone $2k stimulus checks and everyone can live that for 2 years without working,
Elections are in November. So stimulus checks should go out in October.
8

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