MXoN Predictions and Bench Racing

flower87
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31
Joined
12/3/2013
Location
AU
7/5/2022 10:38pm Edited Date/Time 7/12/2022 4:46pm
I was thinking about the upcoming MXoN and which country would win, podium, place well. There were so many riders I started writing it down and then I thought I might as well do it properly.

The attached image is a spreadsheet of potential outcomes. Before everyone jumps to the image and starts complaining about what I got wrong, here are a few qualifications:

1) I have picked what I think would be the top 10 teams. For example I didn't include Canada (sorry Steve) because I dont see them being a big factor. But Dylan Wright could do well and take points away from other teams. Same goes for Slovenia, but I included them because Gasjer is so good.
2) Each rider races twice and gets the same results. The worst moto in Red is deducted from each team.
3) I can't guess who will have a good or bad moto. I have taken no consideration into qualifying or start gates. I have assumed everyone is healthy and its not a mud-race.
4) I have ranked the riders based on my opinions and looking at the MXGP championship rankings. It will be very different on the day.
5) I have Tomac and Sexton going 1-2. I know they got there arse kicked last time. But with a dry track, they still have the home ground advantage. And Herlings and Ferrandis are not back riding.
6) The riders in 12th back were a guess. I have no idea if Van Donick will beat Forato so if you're a passionate euro, give me a break.
7) I created this for a bit of bench racing, and fun discussion. Don't take it too serious.

Remember. Their finish position is based on their rank if all 450s, opens, and 250s are in the same race for simple comparison. So a rider in 10th, will probably go 6-7 in the races.




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greg570
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SK
7/5/2022 11:30pm
You can replace Bob with Pancar in Slovenia team, Dick. He is capable of top 10...
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shuggs
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Dunfermline GB
7/6/2022 12:15am
???? It’s bloody months away yet. Like it or not there will be some that can’t make it (injury) & those that don’t make it (not picked).
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Juck
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AU
7/6/2022 12:19am
Bob and Dick are likely going to be Jan Pancar and Peter Irt, Pancar has gotten a few top tens in MX2 this year with a best finish of 6th overall at Teutschenthal, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a top 20 moto finish.
bowl
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650
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12/31/2012
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AU
7/6/2022 1:23am
I reckon they will pix m.nagal over Jacobi.
Max had way more spee. then Jacobi thi past weekend at German mx series

The Shop

7/6/2022 1:58am
Hunter is going to do a lot better then 11,11
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mx313
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AU
7/6/2022 2:07am
Hunter said jetts more likely going to race the 450 coz he is going 450 next season.
What about Puerto Rico? I would like to see Anderson, mosiman, rj. They could all get a good result or crash out.
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7/6/2022 3:10am Edited Date/Time 7/6/2022 3:11am
I think you rate the 250 riders way too low. For example, the last race at the same track in muddy conditions even, Prado went 3 - 3, Hunter went 7 - 2, Ferrandis went 6 - 8, Watson went 13 - 4. So riders like De Wolf and Laengenfelder are going to do much better than 22 - 22 and 19 - 19.
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davis224
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Cornland, IL US
7/6/2022 3:18am
Isn't Renaux out for a while?
bowl
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AU
7/6/2022 3:40am
TreeFiddy wrote:
Hunter is going to do a lot better then 11,11
Same for gerts ,10/10 n viale 9/9
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TDags
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12
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2/13/2013
Location
CA
7/6/2022 4:03am
We are going to top 10 at redbud. 🇨🇦
flower87
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31
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Location
AU
7/6/2022 5:01am
Bowl and Tree Fidy. First up, I'm Australian an Hunter is my boy. However, on that list of 1st to 10th, who would hunter beat?
Remember, I'm not saying he will go 11-11. I didn't breakit down for 3 races. It's where they rank versus everyone if it was one huge race. Simply to make the calculations easy.
I think hunter will prob go like 5 - 7.
Same goes for Vialle. He'll do better than 9-9, but he would be 9th best rider once you include all the 450, open and 250 guys.
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Juck
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7/6/2022 5:45am
flower87 wrote:
Bowl and Tree Fidy. First up, I'm Australian an Hunter is my boy. However, on that list of 1st to 10th, who would hunter beat? Remember...
Bowl and Tree Fidy. First up, I'm Australian an Hunter is my boy. However, on that list of 1st to 10th, who would hunter beat?
Remember, I'm not saying he will go 11-11. I didn't breakit down for 3 races. It's where they rank versus everyone if it was one huge race. Simply to make the calculations easy.
I think hunter will prob go like 5 - 7.
Same goes for Vialle. He'll do better than 9-9, but he would be 9th best rider once you include all the 450, open and 250 guys.
Ok why are there multiple riders finishing in the same position and why does Mewse finish better than De Wolf
Arofin
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NL
7/6/2022 7:34am
Herlings is racing soon in the Netherlands and Belgium, national races or something. Wouldn't count him out for redbud
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Renner153
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Mulberry, FL US
7/6/2022 5:09pm
Arofin wrote:
Herlings is racing soon in the Netherlands and Belgium, national races or something. Wouldn't count him out for redbud
I was told yesterday that his goal now is to be at mxon. Probably see him start racing in a few weeks from the sounds of it.
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7/6/2022 5:17pm
Recent history would strongly suggest the U.S.A. MX1/Open riders aren’t going 1-2. Would be great if they did, though of course.
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SWOHIO GUY
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Franklin, OH US
7/6/2022 7:49pm
If Herlings races for the Dutch and Ferrandis races for France they are both going to be super hard to beat. I think Tomac and Sextons 4 scores “should” be under 15 combined, in a perfect world under 10. I think we will need a top 10 out of the 250 guy which I don’t see Cooper doing right now. Bonuses for the US are Herlings, Fevbre, and Ferrandis could all not be up to speed. De Wolf is a wild card, could have similar scores to Cooper. Another plus that isn’t mentioned is the race being 3 weeks earlier than 2018, I think the chances of a much better track are in the cards. I hope they don’t take away the off camber section but I believe they will because that was a great spectating spot in 2018.
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7/8/2022 2:08pm
davis224 wrote:
Isn't Renaux out for a while?
He' s already back on the bike and will probably make his return in Loket.
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7/9/2022 9:27am
Sorry but this is a relative whitewash for the US unless Herlings and Fernando's somehow race again and get upto speed incredibly quickly
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Press516
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Gilbert, AZ US
7/9/2022 9:51am Edited Date/Time 7/9/2022 9:52am
Renaux, Febvre and Vialle is beastly team if everyone is healthy.
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sjodin73
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SE
7/9/2022 9:57am
France will be very very good if all is healthy and show up
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crf250pilot
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1982
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Manning, OR US
7/10/2022 2:49pm
I predict another mudder. France wins. USA team stuck in lot B
1
motomike137
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Fenton, MI US
7/11/2022 11:39am Edited Date/Time 7/11/2022 11:40am
SWOHIO GUY wrote:
If Herlings races for the Dutch and Ferrandis races for France they are both going to be super hard to beat. I think Tomac and Sextons...
If Herlings races for the Dutch and Ferrandis races for France they are both going to be super hard to beat. I think Tomac and Sextons 4 scores “should” be under 15 combined, in a perfect world under 10. I think we will need a top 10 out of the 250 guy which I don’t see Cooper doing right now. Bonuses for the US are Herlings, Fevbre, and Ferrandis could all not be up to speed. De Wolf is a wild card, could have similar scores to Cooper. Another plus that isn’t mentioned is the race being 3 weeks earlier than 2018, I think the chances of a much better track are in the cards. I hope they don’t take away the off camber section but I believe they will because that was a great spectating spot in 2018.
I agree with much of what you are saying. I think Cooper might just give us a better result than most think though if he keeps improving week to week. Justin is usually a really good starter and starts will be as important as ever. I still believe in taking the best 250 guy versus dropping someone down. I'm getting back on his bandwagon and believing in a Tomac, Sexton, Cooper team. I predict perfect fall weather and Team USA finally getting us the win again.
mx313
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817
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Location
AU
7/11/2022 2:05pm
SWOHIO GUY wrote:
If Herlings races for the Dutch and Ferrandis races for France they are both going to be super hard to beat. I think Tomac and Sextons...
If Herlings races for the Dutch and Ferrandis races for France they are both going to be super hard to beat. I think Tomac and Sextons 4 scores “should” be under 15 combined, in a perfect world under 10. I think we will need a top 10 out of the 250 guy which I don’t see Cooper doing right now. Bonuses for the US are Herlings, Fevbre, and Ferrandis could all not be up to speed. De Wolf is a wild card, could have similar scores to Cooper. Another plus that isn’t mentioned is the race being 3 weeks earlier than 2018, I think the chances of a much better track are in the cards. I hope they don’t take away the off camber section but I believe they will because that was a great spectating spot in 2018.
I agree with much of what you are saying. I think Cooper might just give us a better result than most think though if he keeps...
I agree with much of what you are saying. I think Cooper might just give us a better result than most think though if he keeps improving week to week. Justin is usually a really good starter and starts will be as important as ever. I still believe in taking the best 250 guy versus dropping someone down. I'm getting back on his bandwagon and believing in a Tomac, Sexton, Cooper team. I predict perfect fall weather and Team USA finally getting us the win again.
With this foot injury and Justin's thumb injury last year he didnt seem to gradually improve. He was just inconsistent. 1 week he would podium and everyone thinks he is back then the week after he goes 7-7.
motomike137
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Fenton, MI US
7/11/2022 3:02pm
mx313 wrote:
With this foot injury and Justin's thumb injury last year he didnt seem to gradually improve. He was just inconsistent. 1 week he would podium and...
With this foot injury and Justin's thumb injury last year he didnt seem to gradually improve. He was just inconsistent. 1 week he would podium and everyone thinks he is back then the week after he goes 7-7.
He looked decent at Southwick. They aren't announcing the team until Unadilla so if he improves again at Millville I think I'd put him on the team. The last time he got a chance he was money on the starts and in won his qualifier If I recall correctly. He had a weird ass collision with Anderson if I recall that screwed things up not to mention the weather was awful!

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