KTM to file for Bankruptcy/ Self Restructuring on Friday

MxAddic
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12/1/2024 1:04pm
Beagle wrote:
Finally it looks like the debt, initially valued at 2.5-3 billion is "merely" 1.8 billion, the majority of which (1.3 billion) is due to banks.500 jobs...

Finally it looks like the debt, initially valued at 2.5-3 billion is "merely" 1.8 billion, the majority of which (1.3 billion) is due to banks.

500 jobs are being terminated, half of them in R&D. Current inventory is 130 000 motorcycles and 80 000 bicycles. KTM racing is a different branch and will not be concerned by the restructuration.

As previously reported production will stop for 2 months then restart in march with one shift instead of two.

For the restructuration to have a chance, Pierer will need to put his personal assets on the table, and he probably will.

Company is going down in flames and racing will not be effected. Sounds like a great strategy.

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Team403
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12/1/2024 1:12pm

So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash flow from the parent company 🤔.  This reminds me of the  “its a right off “ memes by people who have no idea what that means.

 

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MxAddic
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12/1/2024 2:12pm
Beagle wrote:
I don't think they need to have all creditors on board for the restructuration to be accepted. If they can get the banks to accept the...

I don't think they need to have all creditors on board for the restructuration to be accepted. If they can get the banks to accept the cut, and repay in full the others smaller creditors (suppliers...), the amount of debt to repay after restructuration would be reduced in half, 0.9 billion.

"Can they get out of it? PMG have 3 billion in assets including 1 billion in intangible assets, property, plant and equipment, 0.7 billion in inventory"

If there is 3 bil in assets and they owe 2 bil why would the bankers take a 1 bil loss and accept?

Rotaholic
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12/1/2024 5:01pm

Don't know how true it is but heard they have 100,000 2024 bikes across all ranges that they need to clear

The Shop

Beagle
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12/1/2024 10:16pm
Rotaholic wrote:

Don't know how true it is but heard they have 100,000 2024 bikes across all ranges that they need to clear

You're right, 130 000 motorcycles in inventory. They need to clear them.

1
12/1/2024 10:51pm
MPJC wrote:
I'm sure this wouldn't have prevented all (or even much of) their problems, but I think they should have taken a lesson from Yamaha with the...

I'm sure this wouldn't have prevented all (or even much of) their problems, but I think they should have taken a lesson from Yamaha with the 2 strokes. I can see wanting to keep development of the 4 strokes on the cutting edge, as they're being raced at the highest level But the 2 strokes aren't, and once they were counterbalanced, they were excellent. If they left them alone, they could have been like the YZ 2 strokes for Yamaha in that R & D was done years ago (yes, the YZs were updated recently, but they're still the same basic bike) but they keep selling every unit they make. At that point, it's a cash cow. On the other hand, when you're racking up R & D costs then having to sell at a discount, that's never a good formula. The 2022 125, 150, and 250 SX models could have sold virtually unchanged for years. No TPI or TBI needed on any 2 stroke - just keep it cheap and simple. That's part of the appeal of the YZ.

That makes sense and all. Except for 4-st racing at the highest level. People who ride a lot don’t pay attention to the highest level of racing. There riding  , working on there bikes or traveling to ride or race.  They don’t hv time to watch races or money for 150 cable bills. 

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phillipmccavity
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12/1/2024 11:02pm

Ktm’s racing Depts are fucked. They are not making them money, and its an easy way to shed excess fast. 

1
12/1/2024 11:05pm
Beagle wrote:
I don't think they need to have all creditors on board for the restructuration to be accepted. If they can get the banks to accept the...

I don't think they need to have all creditors on board for the restructuration to be accepted. If they can get the banks to accept the cut, and repay in full the others smaller creditors (suppliers...), the amount of debt to repay after restructuration would be reduced in half, 0.9 billion.

MxAddic wrote:
"Can they get out of it? PMG have 3 billion in assets including 1 billion in intangible assets, property, plant and equipment, 0.7 billion in inventory"If...

"Can they get out of it? PMG have 3 billion in assets including 1 billion in intangible assets, property, plant and equipment, 0.7 billion in inventory"

If there is 3 bil in assets and they owe 2 bil why would the bankers take a 1 bil loss and accept?

Because the plant, property, equipment is not worth anything.  Who would buy a motorcycle plant ?  The economy is crashed out much worse than in 08.  Guess how many loads the biggest transportation hub in the world - Chicago was Friday.  40 loads & none of them would pay for the trucks fuel , they paid nothing.  Today nothing I was supposed to work today but there is no work .  And that’s a 150 mi radius & 4 states.  All the west coast co.s r now in the Midwest & Chicago. Because all of the west is a Dead zone.  There’s aprox 10 billion dollars of equipment, closed buisness property for sale with in 40 miles of here in iL.  

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soyMotero
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12/1/2024 11:23pm
Team403 wrote:
So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash...

So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash flow from the parent company 🤔.  This reminds me of the  “its a right off “ memes by people who have no idea what that means.

 

Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing branch" is more than a marketing departament, they also have a commercial part, plus, they sell Moto3 models to almost the entire FIM Moto3 grid (and JuniorGP), the bikes for privateer teams in Dakar... and according to MotoGP journalists, RedBull bankrolls the entre MotoGP program, not sure if Husqvarna/GasGas program is included in the 300 million budget

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Beagle
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12/2/2024 12:16am
Team403 wrote:
So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash...

So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash flow from the parent company 🤔.  This reminds me of the  “its a right off “ memes by people who have no idea what that means.

 

soyMotero wrote:
Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing...

Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing branch" is more than a marketing departament, they also have a commercial part, plus, they sell Moto3 models to almost the entire FIM Moto3 grid (and JuniorGP), the bikes for privateer teams in Dakar... and according to MotoGP journalists, RedBull bankrolls the entre MotoGP program, not sure if Husqvarna/GasGas program is included in the 300 million budget

Yes that's PMG so Husky and Gasgas as well. Latest numbers I've by MotoGP journos, their entire program in Grand Prix costs them about 70 million a year of which Red Bull pays about 10 million. 

To me racing expenses really are marketing expenses, no direct profit, just going for brand exposure and hoping the old "win on Sunday, sell on Monday" may still be true.

I wouldn't expect them to make much profit selling Moto3 bikes, Dakar bikes, MXGP bikes and all to privateers.

Anyway, this is already accounted for in the 289 million total (last line is "sponsorship money and other operating income" for 50 million). So that covers about 15% of the cost of "selling and racing".

Team403
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12/2/2024 5:14am
Team403 wrote:
So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash...

So does the racing division generate a profit or atleast self supporting ?  If not how the fuck do you support the $300M on negative cash flow from the parent company 🤔.  This reminds me of the  “its a right off “ memes by people who have no idea what that means.

 

soyMotero wrote:
Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing...

Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing branch" is more than a marketing departament, they also have a commercial part, plus, they sell Moto3 models to almost the entire FIM Moto3 grid (and JuniorGP), the bikes for privateer teams in Dakar... and according to MotoGP journalists, RedBull bankrolls the entre MotoGP program, not sure if Husqvarna/GasGas program is included in the 300 million budget

Beagle wrote:
Yes that's PMG so Husky and Gasgas as well. Latest numbers I've by MotoGP journos, their entire program in Grand Prix costs them about 70 million...

Yes that's PMG so Husky and Gasgas as well. Latest numbers I've by MotoGP journos, their entire program in Grand Prix costs them about 70 million a year of which Red Bull pays about 10 million. 

To me racing expenses really are marketing expenses, no direct profit, just going for brand exposure and hoping the old "win on Sunday, sell on Monday" may still be true.

I wouldn't expect them to make much profit selling Moto3 bikes, Dakar bikes, MXGP bikes and all to privateers.

Anyway, this is already accounted for in the 289 million total (last line is "sponsorship money and other operating income" for 50 million). So that covers about 15% of the cost of "selling and racing".

I guess they are filling up the rigs and buying  Chipotle on the Visa

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MxAddic
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12/2/2024 5:18am
soyMotero wrote:
Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing...

Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing branch" is more than a marketing departament, they also have a commercial part, plus, they sell Moto3 models to almost the entire FIM Moto3 grid (and JuniorGP), the bikes for privateer teams in Dakar... and according to MotoGP journalists, RedBull bankrolls the entre MotoGP program, not sure if Husqvarna/GasGas program is included in the 300 million budget

That’s the first thing that came to mind. Clawback by the sponsors.

1
MxAddic
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12/2/2024 5:23am
Because the plant, property, equipment is not worth anything.  Who would buy a motorcycle plant ?  The economy is crashed out much worse than in 08...

Because the plant, property, equipment is not worth anything.  Who would buy a motorcycle plant ?  The economy is crashed out much worse than in 08.  Guess how many loads the biggest transportation hub in the world - Chicago was Friday.  40 loads & none of them would pay for the trucks fuel , they paid nothing.  Today nothing I was supposed to work today but there is no work .  And that’s a 150 mi radius & 4 states.  All the west coast co.s r now in the Midwest & Chicago. Because all of the west is a Dead zone.  There’s aprox 10 billion dollars of equipment, closed buisness property for sale with in 40 miles of here in iL.  

You are absolutely right Pro. Tell that to the fellow claiming they are worth 3 Billion. The very same clown taking me to the mat for making up numbers that I got directly from the company website.

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Spoonguy
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12/2/2024 5:24am

I think I read they do owe 3b, it is just that under restructuring 1.8b may be enough to get them out. 100,000 bikes unsold? Does this include bicycles?

soggy
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12/2/2024 5:55am
MPJC wrote:
I'm sure this wouldn't have prevented all (or even much of) their problems, but I think they should have taken a lesson from Yamaha with the...

I'm sure this wouldn't have prevented all (or even much of) their problems, but I think they should have taken a lesson from Yamaha with the 2 strokes. I can see wanting to keep development of the 4 strokes on the cutting edge, as they're being raced at the highest level But the 2 strokes aren't, and once they were counterbalanced, they were excellent. If they left them alone, they could have been like the YZ 2 strokes for Yamaha in that R & D was done years ago (yes, the YZs were updated recently, but they're still the same basic bike) but they keep selling every unit they make. At that point, it's a cash cow. On the other hand, when you're racking up R & D costs then having to sell at a discount, that's never a good formula. The 2022 125, 150, and 250 SX models could have sold virtually unchanged for years. No TPI or TBI needed on any 2 stroke - just keep it cheap and simple. That's part of the appeal of the YZ.

That makes sense and all. Except for 4-st racing at the highest level. People who ride a lot don’t pay attention to the highest level of...

That makes sense and all. Except for 4-st racing at the highest level. People who ride a lot don’t pay attention to the highest level of racing. There riding  , working on there bikes or traveling to ride or race.  They don’t hv time to watch races or money for 150 cable bills. 

You are so wrong about this.

5
Team403
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12/2/2024 5:57am

So how hard is it to sell 130000 bikes in a soft market and how long?  

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MPJC
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12/2/2024 6:34am Edited Date/Time 12/2/2024 6:47am
Because the plant, property, equipment is not worth anything.  Who would buy a motorcycle plant ?  The economy is crashed out much worse than in 08...

Because the plant, property, equipment is not worth anything.  Who would buy a motorcycle plant ?  The economy is crashed out much worse than in 08.  Guess how many loads the biggest transportation hub in the world - Chicago was Friday.  40 loads & none of them would pay for the trucks fuel , they paid nothing.  Today nothing I was supposed to work today but there is no work .  And that’s a 150 mi radius & 4 states.  All the west coast co.s r now in the Midwest & Chicago. Because all of the west is a Dead zone.  There’s aprox 10 billion dollars of equipment, closed buisness property for sale with in 40 miles of here in iL.  

MxAddic wrote:
You are absolutely right Pro. Tell that to the fellow claiming they are worth 3 Billion. The very same clown taking me to the mat for...

You are absolutely right Pro. Tell that to the fellow claiming they are worth 3 Billion. The very same clown taking me to the mat for making up numbers that I got directly from the company website.

I wouldn't say it's worth nothing. What it's worth is basically irrelevant. PP&E is a long term asset, which isn't what you use to pay down debt. You use current assets (cash, receivables, inventory). It sounds like there's plenty of inventory, so if they can move that, that will help. But without your PP&E you can't produce anything so you don't have a business if that's liquidated. If your business is healthy, you can leverage the value of your capital assets to acquire financing. But do too much of that and you'll cease to be healthy. Case in point. 

2
12/2/2024 6:53am

The dealers are already overstocked. All those bikes need to be sold first. They need to offer big rebates but they don't have the money. It's going to take a long time to move that much product in this market. All those cheap new bikes will kill the used bike market. The good news is that you will able to get a great deal on a new dirt bike. Just wait a bit.

 

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MxAddic
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12/2/2024 7:14am
MPJC wrote:
I wouldn't say it's worth nothing. What it's worth is basically irrelevant. PP&E is a long term asset, which isn't what you use to pay down...

I wouldn't say it's worth nothing. What it's worth is basically irrelevant. PP&E is a long term asset, which isn't what you use to pay down debt. You use current assets (cash, receivables, inventory). It sounds like there's plenty of inventory, so if they can move that, that will help. But without your PP&E you can't produce anything so you don't have a business if that's liquidated. If your business is healthy, you can leverage the value of your capital assets to acquire financing. But do too much of that and you'll cease to be healthy. Case in point. 

It's relevant to any possible purchasers of the company. As for it helping PMG out of this mess, not so much. I do agree with virtually everything you have been saying. 

2
MPJC
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12/2/2024 7:27am
MPJC wrote:
I wouldn't say it's worth nothing. What it's worth is basically irrelevant. PP&E is a long term asset, which isn't what you use to pay down...

I wouldn't say it's worth nothing. What it's worth is basically irrelevant. PP&E is a long term asset, which isn't what you use to pay down debt. You use current assets (cash, receivables, inventory). It sounds like there's plenty of inventory, so if they can move that, that will help. But without your PP&E you can't produce anything so you don't have a business if that's liquidated. If your business is healthy, you can leverage the value of your capital assets to acquire financing. But do too much of that and you'll cease to be healthy. Case in point. 

MxAddic wrote:
It's relevant to any possible purchasers of the company. As for it helping PMG out of this mess, not so much. I do agree with virtually...

It's relevant to any possible purchasers of the company. As for it helping PMG out of this mess, not so much. I do agree with virtually everything you have been saying. 

Yes, that's true - a prospective purchaser will certainly care about the value of PP&E. I was thinking about it only from the perspective of dealing with the debt. 

Beagle
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12/2/2024 8:59am Edited Date/Time 12/2/2024 9:38am
MxAddic wrote:
You are absolutely right Pro. Tell that to the fellow claiming they are worth 3 Billion. The very same clown taking me to the mat for...

You are absolutely right Pro. Tell that to the fellow claiming they are worth 3 Billion. The very same clown taking me to the mat for making up numbers that I got directly from the company website.

Lol you're so bad at this 🤣

I say 3 billion in assets because that's the value quoted by PMG in its H1 2024 report that is publicly available and of which the link has been posted multiple times. 

1000010563.png?VersionId=QNWaVOjzv7kIwDqPnW9X7

That is called NOT making shit up.

You've found a document (that does not come from KTM btw) that says KTM off-road market share in North America was 50%. Based on this, you said it was 20% and you're 100% sure it is not 50%. 

1000010552 0.png?VersionId=Gc

That IS called making shit up. 

I thought we were done with this, hope this clarifies 😄

3
12/2/2024 9:07am Edited Date/Time 12/2/2024 9:28am
Spoonguy wrote:
I think I read they do owe 3b, it is just that under restructuring 1.8b may be enough to get them out. 100,000 bikes unsold? Does...

I think I read they do owe 3b, it is just that under restructuring 1.8b may be enough to get them out. 100,000 bikes unsold? Does this include bicycles?

No. There are also 80,000 unsold bicycles.

Beagle
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12/2/2024 9:40am

Great read, thanks.

This echoes some exchanges here:

"We have invested a lot in Moto2 and Moto3 in order to train young riders there who in the end have not always signed with us for MotoGP," Beirer added.

“These classes must become a cost-covering customer business for us.

“There will also have to be discussions about who has to be involved in ensuring that we continue to train young talent for all manufacturers together with Red Bull, such as in the Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup.”

1
MxAddic
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12/2/2024 9:41am Edited Date/Time 12/2/2024 9:53am
Beagle wrote:
Lol you're so bad at this 🤣I say 3 billion in assets because that's the value quoted by PMG in its H1 2024 report that is...

Lol you're so bad at this 🤣

I say 3 billion in assets because that's the value quoted by PMG in its H1 2024 report that is publicly available and of which the link has been posted multiple times. 

1000010563.png?VersionId=QNWaVOjzv7kIwDqPnW9X7

That is called NOT making shit up.

You've found a document (that does not come from KTM btw) that says KTM off-road market share in North America was 50%. Based on this, you said it was 20% and you're 100% sure it is not 50%. 

1000010552 0.png?VersionId=Gc

That IS called making shit up. 

I thought we were done with this, hope this clarifies 😄

If only the filing matched the report they wouldn’t be bankrupt. It's only off by a billion or so. I wouldn't expect you to comprehend that.

3
early
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12/2/2024 9:44am
early wrote:
I posted this earlier, there's a 40,000 unit discrepancy from H1 2023 to 2024, I don't know what that is on the balance sheet but probably...

Screenshot 20241126 114614 Drive 0.jpg?VersionId=OlBOzgXGHOy5SccSjtkBtI posted this earlier, there's a 40,000 unit discrepancy from H1 2023 to 2024, I don't know what that is on the balance sheet but probably around 300 mil plus interest. I wonder if there was significant capex to move production or change sourcing that has been done over the last few years. Not enough time to amortize the investment before it caught up? 

I wonder what the MotoGP cost was, usually sponsorship is pretty good for this teams but it does cost a lot of money developing those bikes and chasing the red rabbit at the world pinnacle of a motorcycle engineering discipline they had basically zero experience in. 

KTM groups sales are up 10,000 units for the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2019 for reference. Screenshot 20241202 123125 Drive.jpg?VersionId=wmX7Ft3NukFE2NEkfCxERrv2K

12/2/2024 9:57am
soyMotero wrote:
Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing...

Not sure if it makes profit, but Neestan MX (The team that runs Factory Husqvarna in MXGP) pays for that status, so maybe the "Factory Racing branch" is more than a marketing departament, they also have a commercial part, plus, they sell Moto3 models to almost the entire FIM Moto3 grid (and JuniorGP), the bikes for privateer teams in Dakar... and according to MotoGP journalists, RedBull bankrolls the entre MotoGP program, not sure if Husqvarna/GasGas program is included in the 300 million budget

MxAddic wrote:

That’s the first thing that came to mind. Clawback by the sponsors.

Sponsors like winners.This whole deal is a bad look,even if they don't pull back.

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KurtJ99
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12/2/2024 10:17am

I am guessing that their 2025 supplier obligations are big part of that surprise debt. Not sure what their cancellation terms are to balance out 2025 sales reduction with supply, but in an upturn all companies think about is receiving inventory and shortening lead times. If they haven't had this kind of a downturn in recent history it is likely their supply chain management isn't able either organizationally or contractually to reduce the demand at their suppliers. You also don't want to lose key suppliers by making them suddenly unprofitable and drive them out of business. By internalizing WP and being 100% KTM group, you have by extension those commercial obligations. If like Beta and others you are 5-15% of your suppliers business, you can ramp down and not lose the supplier. It can be more profitable to buy your supplier, but there is a risk.

1
1
Team403
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12/2/2024 10:55am
KurtJ99 wrote:
I am guessing that their 2025 supplier obligations are big part of that surprise debt. Not sure what their cancellation terms are to balance out 2025...

I am guessing that their 2025 supplier obligations are big part of that surprise debt. Not sure what their cancellation terms are to balance out 2025 sales reduction with supply, but in an upturn all companies think about is receiving inventory and shortening lead times. If they haven't had this kind of a downturn in recent history it is likely their supply chain management isn't able either organizationally or contractually to reduce the demand at their suppliers. You also don't want to lose key suppliers by making them suddenly unprofitable and drive them out of business. By internalizing WP and being 100% KTM group, you have by extension those commercial obligations. If like Beta and others you are 5-15% of your suppliers business, you can ramp down and not lose the supplier. It can be more profitable to buy your supplier, but there is a risk.

Jeff Emig going to take a haircut?

12/2/2024 11:39am Edited Date/Time 12/2/2024 11:58am
KurtJ99 wrote:
I am guessing that their 2025 supplier obligations are big part of that surprise debt. Not sure what their cancellation terms are to balance out 2025...

I am guessing that their 2025 supplier obligations are big part of that surprise debt. Not sure what their cancellation terms are to balance out 2025 sales reduction with supply, but in an upturn all companies think about is receiving inventory and shortening lead times. If they haven't had this kind of a downturn in recent history it is likely their supply chain management isn't able either organizationally or contractually to reduce the demand at their suppliers. You also don't want to lose key suppliers by making them suddenly unprofitable and drive them out of business. By internalizing WP and being 100% KTM group, you have by extension those commercial obligations. If like Beta and others you are 5-15% of your suppliers business, you can ramp down and not lose the supplier. It can be more profitable to buy your supplier, but there is a risk.

Team403 wrote:

Jeff Emig going to take a haircut?

Missed opportunities here: 

"Fro getting trimmed?"

"Fro to be cut off?"
3

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