2023 Economy - Are you seeing signs of a recession yet?

BAREIN
Posts
87
Joined
11/28/2023
Location
southern, WI, USA
12/16/2023 8:58am
APLMAN99 wrote:
Depends on what type of mutual funds, but if you are looking at anything close to a ‘normal’ retirement scenario you should have probably moved towards...

Depends on what type of mutual funds, but if you are looking at anything close to a ‘normal’ retirement scenario you should have probably moved towards asset preservation type of investments several years ago. Most stock heavy mutual funds are geared more towards the accumulation phases, with varying risk/volativity profiles. As you get closer to retirement, the less volatile you want your investments to be. When you actually retire, you want to be in investments with higher income profiles, such as solid and predictable dividends, etc. 

At 65, if you haven’t already then I’d spend a couple of dollars to visit a financial planner ASAP. 

sumdood wrote:
We've been through 3 since we started these accounts 30 plus years ago. Long story is I don't have much faith in our latest one (A...

We've been through 3 since we started these accounts 30 plus years ago. Long story is I don't have much faith in our latest one (A family member, not immediate but in the family)  I think the past 2 years they've made more off my investments than us. They charge a percentage of the total which has been between 275 and 300 a month. We're still putting in a grand a month, so almost 30% of our monthly contribution goes right in their pocket regardless if our accounts are earning or not that month. Seems like a great deal,  ... for them        

You need to get away from that financial adviser ASAP

1
12/16/2023 9:43am
sumdood wrote:
We've been through 3 since we started these accounts 30 plus years ago. Long story is I don't have much faith in our latest one (A...

We've been through 3 since we started these accounts 30 plus years ago. Long story is I don't have much faith in our latest one (A family member, not immediate but in the family)  I think the past 2 years they've made more off my investments than us. They charge a percentage of the total which has been between 275 and 300 a month. We're still putting in a grand a month, so almost 30% of our monthly contribution goes right in their pocket regardless if our accounts are earning or not that month. Seems like a great deal,  ... for them        

My application/resume to be your new financial advisor.

TM has a history of dealing with money 💰 usually in the direction of my hand to motorcycles and accessories. Sometimes jetskis too. More than happy to do the work of previous advisor for a 20% discount.

What could possibly go wrong?

2
1
ThatOneMXGuy
Posts
1073
Joined
12/28/2023
Location
Somewhere, MO, USA
1/13/2024 8:42am

How does everyone’s Roths and retirement accounts in general look? Mine looks amazing. 

2
1/13/2024 8:58am

mines almost back to where it was a couple years ago.

1

The Shop

BMR179
Posts
510
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
East Texas, TX, USA
Fantasy
1/13/2024 9:28am

Mine is still down around 4% from a few years ago.

1
Flatliner
Posts
4251
Joined
11/3/2009
Location
CA
1/13/2024 1:28pm
This thread is about the economy and if there are signs of a recession, you are concern how your government spends tax payer's money, your comment...

This thread is about the economy and if there are signs of a recession, you are concern how your government spends tax payer's money, your comment is off topic!

I've read some wild stuff on here, this might take the cake.

1
1
Magoofan
Posts
10401
Joined
5/4/2021
Location
Shadow Glen (for those who remember), CA, USA
1/13/2024 4:33pm

How does everyone’s Roths and retirement accounts in general look? Mine looks amazing. 

Sure they look amazing...mine too.

So do most house of cards before they crumble into worthlessness....

2
4
1/14/2024 5:43pm
BMR179 wrote:

Mine is still down around 4% from a few years ago.

You need to reevaluate your investments. My retirement investments are up 16% since January of 2021. 

2
JM485
Posts
5812
Joined
10/1/2013
Location
Davis, CA, USA
1/14/2024 10:02pm

The Venezuelan stock market had a banner year last year as well, doesn't mean anyone is actually "richer".  It's all about currency debasement, it's not natural for your house to increase in value 40% in 2 years just like it's not natural for the price of groceries to double in 2 years, everyone might look wealthier on paper but in real terms almost all of us are losing ground at a rapid pace.  

8
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/15/2024 6:35am
JM485 wrote:
The Venezuelan stock market had a banner year last year as well, doesn't mean anyone is actually "richer".  It's all about currency debasement, it's not natural...

The Venezuelan stock market had a banner year last year as well, doesn't mean anyone is actually "richer".  It's all about currency debasement, it's not natural for your house to increase in value 40% in 2 years just like it's not natural for the price of groceries to double in 2 years, everyone might look wealthier on paper but in real terms almost all of us are losing ground at a rapid pace.  

That is what cracks me up about people. The thought they place into situations is about 3 feet in front of them. The economy is in shambles and a ticking time bomb. Yet everyone here is bragging about the money they are going to lose. Roths/401k are all developed to dupe people into placing money in the casino. It isn’t guaranteed, and the evaluation you get when you pull the money is taxed over 25%lol. On par with credit cards for schmucks 

2
4
lumpy790
Posts
11610
Joined
9/18/2007
Location
York, SC, USA
1/15/2024 8:38am

Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15% 

I do not think of a recession as having large job and wage growth.

2
FLmxer
Posts
7310
Joined
8/16/2006
Location
SouthWest, FL, USA
Fantasy
1/15/2024 8:48am Edited Date/Time 1/15/2024 6:46pm

I was paying 40 dollars for round bales 3 years ago. They are 120 now. I have bought 3 a week for the last few years and it's draining. I just got 20 delivered off craigslist at 65 each and they don't look great.  

20240112 120512.jpg?VersionId=x0o4MM0a0aEDE1Z

1
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/15/2024 12:29pm
lumpy790 wrote:
Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15%  I do not think...

Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15% 

I do not think of a recession as having large job and wage growth.

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

5
1/15/2024 1:30pm
tcannon521 wrote:

You need to reevaluate your investments. My retirement investments are up 16% since January of 2021. 

So if we account for inflation, you've lost value?

1
5
TeamGreen
Posts
37250
Joined
11/25/2008
Location
Thru-out, CA, USA
1/15/2024 1:55pm

I was reading the free paper at the hotel on Saturday…

USA Today

Their economic genius/writer was reporting that wages are staying ahead of inflation. It was right out of The Biden Campaign Manual. 
Laughing

2
5
lumpy790
Posts
11610
Joined
9/18/2007
Location
York, SC, USA
1/15/2024 1:59pm
lumpy790 wrote:
Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15%  I do not think...

Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15% 

I do not think of a recession as having large job and wage growth.

Zycki11 wrote:

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

6
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/15/2024 2:44pm
lumpy790 wrote:
Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15%  I do not think...

Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15% 

I do not think of a recession as having large job and wage growth.

Zycki11 wrote:

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

So again, your basing a recession off of your retirement and “employment numbers”?

2
1/15/2024 3:08pm
lumpy790 wrote:
Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15%  I do not think...

Due to my wifes job we have to use Merrill Lynch and in the last year our retirement value has increased 15% 

I do not think of a recession as having large job and wage growth.

Zycki11 wrote:

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

If someone is employed in a job that they are over qualified for and working for less than their worth, yes they are employed and counted as employed but they are still underemployed. In todays market, people are getting paid less that their worth whether it be through inflation or the job is no longer available that they could be getting their worth pay. So just looking at an employment number does not tell the story.

1
2
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/15/2024 3:18pm Edited Date/Time 1/15/2024 3:59pm
Zycki11 wrote:

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

ToolMaker wrote:
If someone is employed in a job that they are over qualified for and working for less than their worth, yes they are employed and counted...

If someone is employed in a job that they are over qualified for and working for less than their worth, yes they are employed and counted as employed but they are still underemployed. In todays market, people are getting paid less that their worth whether it be through inflation or the job is no longer available that they could be getting their worth pay. So just looking at an employment number does not tell the story.

Every Christmas a president will come out and boast about employment numbers and how they look turning the fiscal year. It is all propped up by seasonal work for companies like Amazon. Those “full time” jobs then go away after 1 month and they have to go on unemployment again. We get a Santa rally in the stock world every year mid December . The amount of information that is lied about by our government and media alike is astounding. 

4
2
mvd61
Posts
1301
Joined
10/15/2021
Location
Brandon, SD, USA
1/15/2024 4:12pm
Zycki11 wrote:

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

Zycki11 wrote:

So again, your basing a recession off of your retirement and “employment numbers”?

Employment numbers are never fudged. Trust the experts!

1
1
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/15/2024 6:33pm
lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

Zycki11 wrote:

So again, your basing a recession off of your retirement and “employment numbers”?

mvd61 wrote:

Employment numbers are never fudged. Trust the experts!

Yeah man! Faucci said 6ft damnit

2
JM485
Posts
5812
Joined
10/1/2013
Location
Davis, CA, USA
1/15/2024 7:26pm

The illusion of wealth is a very real thing.  People see their homes, retirement accounts, and really just assets in general appreciate at an accelerated rate and think that they are building wealth, but in reality it's all a facade designed to hide the underlying truth, and that's that the US economy (along with most of the developed world) has experienced very little real economic growth over the last 10-20 years.  That's not a palatable reality for the average person to face, so our elected "leaders" turn the economic screws and debase the currency in order to generate "growth" and "wealth", but it's all for show.  That's all fine and dandy if you own assets, but if you're from the younger generation like I am and never had the chance to acquire assets you're basically just watching prosperity march steadily further and further away no matter what you do, which is slightly frustrating to say the least. 

 

It's time to abolish the Fed and Social Security, I'm done having my current and future wealth stolen from me to prop up the house of cards older generation's retirement sits upon as they continue to take advantage of the younger generation.  

5
8
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/16/2024 6:14am
JM485 wrote:
The illusion of wealth is a very real thing.  People see their homes, retirement accounts, and really just assets in general appreciate at an accelerated rate...

The illusion of wealth is a very real thing.  People see their homes, retirement accounts, and really just assets in general appreciate at an accelerated rate and think that they are building wealth, but in reality it's all a facade designed to hide the underlying truth, and that's that the US economy (along with most of the developed world) has experienced very little real economic growth over the last 10-20 years.  That's not a palatable reality for the average person to face, so our elected "leaders" turn the economic screws and debase the currency in order to generate "growth" and "wealth", but it's all for show.  That's all fine and dandy if you own assets, but if you're from the younger generation like I am and never had the chance to acquire assets you're basically just watching prosperity march steadily further and further away no matter what you do, which is slightly frustrating to say the least. 

 

It's time to abolish the Fed and Social Security, I'm done having my current and future wealth stolen from me to prop up the house of cards older generation's retirement sits upon as they continue to take advantage of the younger generation.  

I’m 39, I have been broke, paid shit off and gotten ahead, broke again when I was injured and then established myself again recently. You absolutely can get ahead and most do not understand what a real asset is vs a depreciating asset. Your house is not an asset. The only reason it has been recently is due to the housing market being so inflated. 

2
3
JWACK
Posts
2581
Joined
8/7/2009
Location
USA
1/16/2024 7:02am
JM485 wrote:
The illusion of wealth is a very real thing.  People see their homes, retirement accounts, and really just assets in general appreciate at an accelerated rate...

The illusion of wealth is a very real thing.  People see their homes, retirement accounts, and really just assets in general appreciate at an accelerated rate and think that they are building wealth, but in reality it's all a facade designed to hide the underlying truth, and that's that the US economy (along with most of the developed world) has experienced very little real economic growth over the last 10-20 years.  That's not a palatable reality for the average person to face, so our elected "leaders" turn the economic screws and debase the currency in order to generate "growth" and "wealth", but it's all for show.  That's all fine and dandy if you own assets, but if you're from the younger generation like I am and never had the chance to acquire assets you're basically just watching prosperity march steadily further and further away no matter what you do, which is slightly frustrating to say the least. 

 

It's time to abolish the Fed and Social Security, I'm done having my current and future wealth stolen from me to prop up the house of cards older generation's retirement sits upon as they continue to take advantage of the younger generation.  

What’s stopping you from moving to a part of the country with lower cost of living to get ahead for a while?  

Spend 10 years building “wealth” and bring it back to California where you want to be.
 

I was in your shoes. Perhaps even worse off because I don’t have a degree.  Just a journeyman’s electrical card.  
Not sure if you have a kid but that was the defining moment for me.  I couldn’t sit and wait anymore for opportunities to happen locally.  
Although I didn’t want to move my family across the county multiple times in the end nobody was going to take care of my family but me so I made hard decisions to leave everything and everybody behind to make things happen to get ahead.  

You can either sit and wait for nothing to happen or make it happen.      
I lost my ass in the 2007-8 recession when the work dried up locally. (Sold my house I just bought and my truck even got repoed) it was a bad deal. 
I should have been more resourceful and made moves when I could.. Don’t be 2008 me.

Make moves J!  Or don’t… But don’t expect anybody to make it happen for you.  


 

 

6
1
kbsci
Posts
429
Joined
1/7/2024
Location
Richmond, VA, USA
1/16/2024 7:34am
Zycki11 wrote:

So because of your wife’s retirement you do not believe we are in a recession?

lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

Zycki11 wrote:

So again, your basing a recession off of your retirement and “employment numbers”?

I don’t understand your point. Why are his experiences and sources less valid than yours?

2
ThatOneMXGuy
Posts
1073
Joined
12/28/2023
Location
Somewhere, MO, USA
1/16/2024 8:14am

By all metrics historically used by all past administrations, the fed, and the current administration, the economy is great. It has seen the best post COVID recovery among developed nations and the best inflation cooling among developed nations.

2
7
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/16/2024 8:27am
lumpy790 wrote:
We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but...

We both have have been doing retirement investing for many years. It is hard to do in the motorcycle industry since it rarely is available but when you are doing it yourself not your employer it’s possible.

employment numbers are high not unemployment and that usually doesn’t happen during a recession. History shows the same inflation happening after an epidemic.

Zycki11 wrote:

So again, your basing a recession off of your retirement and “employment numbers”?

kbsci wrote:

I don’t understand your point. Why are his experiences and sources less valid than yours?

Simply put, the numbers he talks about are hold as much weight as a feather.  You are either in the world of the stock market or you are not.  Retirement investing, is not a barometer on our economy.  

2
4
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/16/2024 8:29am
By all metrics historically used by all past administrations, the fed, and the current administration, the economy is great. It has seen the best post COVID...

By all metrics historically used by all past administrations, the fed, and the current administration, the economy is great. It has seen the best post COVID recovery among developed nations and the best inflation cooling among developed nations.

lmao oh please go on... do tell

2
3
kbsci
Posts
429
Joined
1/7/2024
Location
Richmond, VA, USA
1/16/2024 8:37am
Zycki11 wrote:
Simply put, the numbers he talks about are hold as much weight as a feather.  You are either in the world of the stock market or...

Simply put, the numbers he talks about are hold as much weight as a feather.  You are either in the world of the stock market or you are not.  Retirement investing, is not a barometer on our economy.  

Okay… So are you saying that based on the stock market you believe we are in a recession?

IMG 4662 1.jpeg?VersionId=v0yvQZZFvUVSnmcyXWSjWRtsxiHKqc
 

7
Zycki11
Posts
7846
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL, USA
1/16/2024 8:56am
Zycki11 wrote:
Simply put, the numbers he talks about are hold as much weight as a feather.  You are either in the world of the stock market or...

Simply put, the numbers he talks about are hold as much weight as a feather.  You are either in the world of the stock market or you are not.  Retirement investing, is not a barometer on our economy.  

kbsci wrote:
Okay… So are you saying that based on the stock market you believe we are in a recession?  

Okay… So are you saying that based on the stock market you believe we are in a recession?

IMG 4662 1.jpeg?VersionId=v0yvQZZFvUVSnmcyXWSjWRtsxiHKqc
 

You can't be serious right now with this right? Lmao you think the stock market or more specifically the S&P 500 which is the LARGEST companies in America........... is a reflection of our economy?  

4
2

Post a reply to: 2023 Economy - Are you seeing signs of a recession yet?

The Latest