How many AMA 450 SX main winners tin 2024?

12/10/2023 11:56pm

What would the reaction be if Jett had a perfect supercross season?

6
Sully
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12/11/2023 12:06am
davistld01 wrote:

Five…maybe six

Tomac, J. Lawrence, Sexton, H. Lawrence, and Roczen.

I can see Barcia if he’s back 100% or maybe Anderson if the planets align.

 

If there’s a mud race, you absolutely can’t count Barcia out. No mud race and I’m going with 5; Eli, Chase, Jett, Hunter, Kenny. 

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js256
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12/11/2023 12:34am

Jett, Hunter, Sexton

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kxking
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12/11/2023 4:07am

I wanna say 4, but am going with 5.

The Shop

Motofinne
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12/11/2023 4:34am

4.

Jett, Eli, Sexton, Kenny.

 

Mavetism
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12/11/2023 4:34am

I don't even frikkin care at this point, just give me the damn season already, I CAN'T WAIT ANYMORE 

KurtJ99
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12/11/2023 5:37am

The one post that should have been a poll, at least after Mav’s history lesson. 
(7)
Tomac, Sexton, Jett

and…..

- Kenny - He is better than he left SX last year  Racing all off season 

- Hunter - with right circumstances 

- Webb - his off season races looked mediocre, but he’s just too much of a bulldog to write off. 
- Andersen - wildcard but has too much speed to discount

1
Joey Bridges
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12/11/2023 6:37am

There will be 17 winners.

😉

9
12/11/2023 6:44am

Jett will make the 2024 SX a little boring unfortunately.  There will be 2 total different winners in 2024 450SX.

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prozach
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12/11/2023 7:38am

Jett, tomac, sexton = disappointment if they don't win multiple races.

 

Webb, Anderson, Hunter, Roczen = expected to get wins. 

 

Barcia, cooper, mookie, AP, Dylan, AC. = Heat wins likely, could win mains, but unlikely . 

 

I'd say 4-5 like normal.  Deeper field will help the second level riders if the top 3 get bad starts.  

2
12/11/2023 7:57am

Based on the levels of "dominant" talent...I'll say 3. But based on some riders just have off nights, its more like 5-6.

RG437
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12/11/2023 11:20am

I’ve got Jett, Tomac, Sexton and Roczen all to win a main but I think that is it. Doesn’t sound like much but I think all those guys will be very good in 2024 and there will be very few, if any, nights where all of them are off

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TeamGreen
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12/11/2023 12:22pm

There will be 17 winners.

😉

From our discussion in the Sexton thread...tho, it actually belongs in here...

I've said it before, sexton, Tomac, and Webb, always play the smart points game. 

Not necessarily going all out for a win every night. 

 

That may not work too well when you have someone out there who is primed to win every time the gate drops.

He may not win them all, but only a fool would think Jett won't win most of the main events, and the points that go with it.

Hunter's definitely going to throw a wrench into the points race as well.

 

I like all of the contenders, but this is the changing of the guard.

Like it or not.

I come up with a slightly different take based on the same initial consideration: we’ve now added a few more riders to the list.

All the same players from last year are still there & now we’ve added Jett & Hunter...& let’s not forget we’ve got Dylan on a Honda and he’s hungry. I still don’t get how we seem to not consider Plessinger, Malcolm, Anderson & even Adam if he’s got that arm situation figured out (his starts/early laps are on point). 

We seem to forget that..last season...

Kenny won on the RM, Barcia won, Ando was working on a win until he left the door open for Justin (ouch!). You know, it was business as usual…and a lot of them looked good at the last race we saw in L.A. just a few months ago. 

So, with that consideration and adding in all of the guys that “could win”…and I’m still thinking there’s the same list of them from last year and with improvements: I’m counting on a healthier AC, a hungrier and a bit pissed off Ferrandis, a rejuvenated Anderson, Plessinger with something to prove to himself, Webb stoked on the changes he made, Mookie all trained up and ready to romp…and 2 Aussie boys that are on top of the world and loving it.

With that said…

Tomac

Sexton

Webb

Roczen

Barcia

Anderson 

Stewart 

Plessinger 

Ferrandis 

Cianciarulo

J Lawrence

H Lawrence 

That’s 12 of them that “can do it”. I’m guessing that 6 of them will. 

Here’s to seeing all them at the first & last race…healthy, fast and bringing it. 

See you all at the races. 

Manny

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TeamGreen
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12/11/2023 12:26pm
prozach wrote:
Jett, tomac, sexton = disappointment if they don't win multiple races.   Webb, Anderson, Hunter, Roczen = expected to get wins.    Barcia, cooper, mookie, AP...

Jett, tomac, sexton = disappointment if they don't win multiple races.

 

Webb, Anderson, Hunter, Roczen = expected to get wins. 

 

Barcia, cooper, mookie, AP, Dylan, AC. = Heat wins likely, could win mains, but unlikely . 

 

I'd say 4-5 like normal.  Deeper field will help the second level riders if the top 3 get bad starts.  

Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it. Last season he seemed extremely fast; but, he was wisely cautious.

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kxking
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12/11/2023 12:34pm Edited Date/Time 12/11/2023 12:35pm
prozach wrote:
Jett, tomac, sexton = disappointment if they don't win multiple races.   Webb, Anderson, Hunter, Roczen = expected to get wins.    Barcia, cooper, mookie, AP...

Jett, tomac, sexton = disappointment if they don't win multiple races.

 

Webb, Anderson, Hunter, Roczen = expected to get wins. 

 

Barcia, cooper, mookie, AP, Dylan, AC. = Heat wins likely, could win mains, but unlikely . 

 

I'd say 4-5 like normal.  Deeper field will help the second level riders if the top 3 get bad starts.  

TeamGreen wrote:
Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it...

Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it. Last season he seemed extremely fast; but, he was wisely cautious.

I'm sorry, I don't see it. Top tens possibly, podiums-probably not likely, but definitely not seeing wins this year.

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Joey Bridges
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12/11/2023 12:45pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it...

Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it. Last season he seemed extremely fast; but, he was wisely cautious.

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.

 

But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while. 

Might not lead to more than a few riders winning.

But it should mean some great battles for top 10's, 5's, and that last spot on the podium.

 

Still say Jett and Eli are going to give us a helluva show this year.

1
bigk218
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12/11/2023 12:54pm

I bet we see a winner ever round. 

2
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GrapeApe
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12/11/2023 12:59pm Edited Date/Time 12/11/2023 1:25pm

Jett wins every race until the series heads east then Deegan tries his hand at the 450 class and wins every race he enters. As a result Australia spontaneously explodes and that distraction allows Eli to win the championship over Jett which is why Star allowed Deegan to race 450 in the first place.

So, my answer is 2.

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5
TeamGreen
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12/11/2023 1:20pm
GrapeApe wrote:
Jett wins every race until the series heads east then Deegan tries his hand at the 450 class and wins every race he enters. As a...

Jett wins every race until the series heads east then Deegan tries his hand at the 450 class and wins every race he enters. As a result Australia spontaneously explodes and that distraction allows Eli to win the championship over Jett which is why Star allowed Deegan to race 450 in the first place.

So, my answer is 2.

Laughing

MPJC
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12/11/2023 1:37pm

I'm guessing 4, with J. Lawrence, Tomac, and Sexton dominating and Roczen or Webb getting one or two. Webb is the sleeper here, I think. He could be a 4 - 8 place guy or he could surprise everyone and regain his championship form. 

-MAVERICK-
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12/11/2023 1:41pm Edited Date/Time 12/25/2023 6:36pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it...

Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it. Last season he seemed extremely fast; but, he was wisely cautious.

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.   But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while.  Might...

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.

 

But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while. 

Might not lead to more than a few riders winning.

But it should mean some great battles for top 10's, 5's, and that last spot on the podium.

 

Still say Jett and Eli are going to give us a helluva show this year.

It's stacked. 

1- Chase Sexton (2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ)

2- Cooper Webb (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450 SX Champ)

3- Eli Tomac (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ, 4x 450 MX Champ, 2x 450 SX Champ)

7- Aaron Plessinger (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ)

9- Adam Cianciarulo (1x 250 MX Champ)

14- Dylan Ferrandis (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 MX Champ)

15- Dean Wilson (1x 250 MX Champ)

18- Jett Lawrence (2x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 MX Champ, 1x 450 SMX Champ)

19- Justin Bogle (1x 250 SX Champ)

21- Jason Anderson (1x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ)

27- Malcolm Stewart (1x 250 SX Champ)

28- Christian Craig (1x 250 SX Champ)

32- Justin Cooper (1x 250 SX Champ)

45- Colt Nichols (1x 250 SX Champ)

46- Justin Hill (1x 250 SX Champ)

51- Justin Barcia (2x 250 SX Champ)

94- Ken Roczen (1x MX2 Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450 MX Champ)

96- Hunter Lawrence (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ)

Combined Championship Total: 45

MX2: 1

250 MX: 9

250 SX: 20

450 MX: 8

450 SX: 6

450 SMX: 1

12
decano51
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12/11/2023 1:47pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it...

Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it. Last season he seemed extremely fast; but, he was wisely cautious.

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.   But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while.  Might...

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.

 

But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while. 

Might not lead to more than a few riders winning.

But it should mean some great battles for top 10's, 5's, and that last spot on the podium.

 

Still say Jett and Eli are going to give us a helluva show this year.

-MAVERICK- wrote:
It's stacked.  1- Chase Sexton (2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ) 2- Cooper Webb (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450...

It's stacked. 

1- Chase Sexton (2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ)

2- Cooper Webb (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450 SX Champ)

3- Eli Tomac (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ, 4x 450 MX Champ, 2x 450 SX Champ)

7- Aaron Plessinger (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ)

9- Adam Cianciarulo (1x 250 MX Champ)

14- Dylan Ferrandis (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 MX Champ)

15- Dean Wilson (1x 250 MX Champ)

18- Jett Lawrence (2x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 MX Champ, 1x 450 SMX Champ)

19- Justin Bogle (1x 250 SX Champ)

21- Jason Anderson (1x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ)

27- Malcolm Stewart (1x 250 SX Champ)

28- Christian Craig (1x 250 SX Champ)

32- Justin Cooper (1x 250 SX Champ)

45- Colt Nichols (1x 250 SX Champ)

46- Justin Hill (1x 250 SX Champ)

51- Justin Barcia (2x 250 SX Champ)

94- Ken Roczen (1x MX2 Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450 MX Champ)

96- Hunter Lawrence (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ)

Combined Championship Total: 45

MX2: 1

250 MX: 9

250 SX: 20

450 MX: 8

450 SX: 6

450 SMX: 1

Who ever wins this title.. are we going to say its the hardest championship ever.? 

FreshTopEnd
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12/11/2023 1:48pm

3

Buckland wrote:

I think I'm with you. Jett, Tomac, Sexton?

Jett and Eli, but I don't have a clue on the third.  There have been a lot of wacky one round/A1 winners over the years, and I could see Anderson getting his back up for one.  Not sure about Sexton until he keeps it on two wheels more consistently; I could see him winning 2+ rounds, or none at all but finishing consistently.  

Would love to see a nutty A1 with someone like AC or Dylan or Mookie bagging it with the favorites having first round crazies.

1
kxking
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12/11/2023 1:59pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it...

Is Justin Cooper ready to throw down and get wins? I think we all know he can...if he's willing to go all in and push it. Last season he seemed extremely fast; but, he was wisely cautious.

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.   But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while.  Might...

I've never been a fan of the words, stacked field.

 

But there's more talent, deeper into the field than we've seen in a while. 

Might not lead to more than a few riders winning.

But it should mean some great battles for top 10's, 5's, and that last spot on the podium.

 

Still say Jett and Eli are going to give us a helluva show this year.

-MAVERICK- wrote:
It's stacked.  1- Chase Sexton (2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ) 2- Cooper Webb (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450...

It's stacked. 

1- Chase Sexton (2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ)

2- Cooper Webb (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450 SX Champ)

3- Eli Tomac (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ, 4x 450 MX Champ, 2x 450 SX Champ)

7- Aaron Plessinger (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ)

9- Adam Cianciarulo (1x 250 MX Champ)

14- Dylan Ferrandis (1x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 MX Champ)

15- Dean Wilson (1x 250 MX Champ)

18- Jett Lawrence (2x 250 MX Champ, 2x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 MX Champ, 1x 450 SMX Champ)

19- Justin Bogle (1x 250 SX Champ)

21- Jason Anderson (1x 250 SX Champ, 1x 450 SX Champ)

27- Malcolm Stewart (1x 250 SX Champ)

28- Christian Craig (1x 250 SX Champ)

32- Justin Cooper (1x 250 SX Champ)

45- Colt Nichols (1x 250 SX Champ)

46- Justin Hill (1x 250 SX Champ)

51- Justin Barcia (2x 250 SX Champ)

94- Ken Roczen (1x MX2 Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ, 2x 450 MX Champ)

96- Hunter Lawrence (1x 250 MX Champ, 1x 250 SX Champ)

Combined Championship Total: 45

MX2: 1

250 MX: 9

250 SX: 20

450 MX: 8

450 SX: 6

450 SMX: 1

There's also a few MXGP Championship titles on the gate....

1
-MAVERICK-
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12/11/2023 2:10pm
decano51 wrote:

Who ever wins this title.. are we going to say its the hardest championship ever.? 

I'm not going on record to say that it will be the hardest ever, but there are only 22 gates, and I listed 18 riders. 

Some are on the upswing and some are on the downswing, but no matter how you look at it, it's a very accomplished field of riders. 

Anyone making a main event in 2024 will have definitely earned their way in. 

1
-MAVERICK-
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12/11/2023 2:18pm
kxking wrote:

There's also a few MXGP Championship titles on the gate....

I didn't list Prado because he's only doing a few rounds. He's not a series regular, yet. 

1
kxking
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12/11/2023 2:21pm
kxking wrote:

There's also a few MXGP Championship titles on the gate....

-MAVERICK- wrote:

I didn't list Prado because he's only doing a few rounds. He's not a series regular, yet. 

Fair enough.

I thought Dylan had one too, no?

-MAVERICK-
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12/11/2023 2:27pm
kxking wrote:

Fair enough.

I thought Dylan had one too, no?

No. It's a shame Marvin is not lining up because he has two MX2 titles and one 250 SX title.

I didn't list wins, but he's got some of those under his belt as well. 

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Falcon
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12/11/2023 2:35pm

If Malcolm doesn't win one, I am going to be disappointed. 

Tomac, Sexton, J. Lawrence for sure. H. Lawrence, Webb are maybes. Roczen, Anderson, and Stewart are longer shots. Prado slots in there somewhere too, but I'm not sure what category. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win. 

2
BS12
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12/11/2023 6:08pm Edited Date/Time 12/11/2023 10:21pm

The reality is 4: Jett, Chase, Eli, Ken. Barring injjury of course, find me a night where all 4 of these guys have problems, allowing someone else in? All 4 have that next level, elite pace to move forward through the pack. This year there was only 2: Chase and Eli. And Chase couldn't stay off the ground, leaving only Eli with that consistent, elite pace to correct a bad start/mistake.

Jett's starts are incredible, as were Tomac's before he injured himself. Ken's got a year under his belt and has proven he's re-found his elite speed as recently as Paris. Chase's elite speed was a revelation of sorts in 2023, and all signs point to that continuing in '24.

- If there is to be 5, it is Hunter next in line.

- Webb's best weapon is staying power and prowess, not speed. He now has 4+ guys to outlast. He's on a new bike and trainer 
- Barcia and Anderson are another year older, and never had true race winning speed in 23. Barcia won in mud
- Mookie has been out nearly a year, getting older, and still hasn't sealed a win. How is he going to combat Jett and Chase in their absolute prime? Let alone Eli, Ken, Hunter?
- Ferrandis only has a few podiums at best to date and is on a new bike. 

Is Vital looking for an international intern for A1 in return for Interntional flights? :D 

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