How close will Tomac get to McGrath's (72) supercross career wins?

If he races supercross next year which pending an injury I think he will I think 60 is possible. 

SX next year is looking more likely…oh, and SMX finals, too. 

Closer than anyone else.

😉

I only care about one thing.... that it doesn't stay tied at 50.  It would suck to have a tie.  I would have been happy for James to keep it.  I'm happy for Tomac if he beats it.  So now pretty please with sugar on top, Tomac!  Just one more win to seal the deal.   

Question: Will wins in the final three SMX rounds count toward career totals for SX or MX or will they be classified separately?

Well it is the AMA so probably both

I just want Tomac to race outdoors again. 

Or they just wont keep track of them at all, kind of like triple crown race wins. 

Not very 

He is this year.

I voted for 60 but in actuality if he races next year I think he will end up with 57 or 58 wins. 

If he does decide to race next year and gets to the upper 50s, maybe he will see the light at the end of the tunnel and do a couple more SX only seasons to attempt to get to that 72 mark.

So far.

He had seven wins in 2022. He's got six this year. So for the sake of argument let's say he can average 7 wins a season from here until retirement. He'd need to race four more seasons to reach 73. I don't see him racing that much longer. I'm with most of the others. I think he has one more season in him, and probably finishes with 55 wins.

I agree with the 55. But lets be honest about THIS year. He has 6 wins already out of his average 7-8 wins per year when he's ON. Currently we have 6 races left in the season with a tie between Webb and Tomac. Tomac is going to have to win at least 3-4 races to win the title this year. Which would put him at a 10 race win count for a single season, which hasn't been done since Villopoto in '13. Its a tall order but I still think he can make it happen. If he doesn't win, he MUST finish 2nd though. NO MORE 6th-8th's...

I definitely agree with that analysis. He's got to win with this title fight. That's going to require him to push on those nights when the bike (or him) is off, and it will be interesting to see if he can do it. Regardless, it's going to be an exciting last few races. 

Can anyone racing now match Tomac (or RC/James)?  I don't think so.

No. No one on the gate is remotely winning as much as Tomac. Sexton has 3 wins total for his career after 2.5 seasons while Tomac has 6 wins just this year.. Webb and Roczen are the next 2 on the list still active and capable of winning races. Tied at 21 wins each in 10th and 11th place on the All Time wins list. Sexton needs to win 7 races each year until he retires just to come close to the top 5. As of right now, I don't see that happening. Its going to be another new guy to break all these records. He needs to come in guns blazing winning right when all the current great riders are retiring...kind of like Jett's current timing into the 450 class. I mean he is the only guy remotely close to speed of the top 5 450 guys consistently. But add a 450 under him and I bet things will be different. That 450 is a big beast to tame in supercross and motocross at the highest level of racing.

Edit: now 7 WINS for '23!

Who cares he is 5 SX titles behind him!

I say he finishes up this season in the 52/53 range, so if he ends up racing again next year, 60 is doable. But yeah, 56-58 is probably more likely barring injury to any heavy hitters next year. 

Jett is on 450s shortly, might be a major factor.

If he had reversed his camotile other self earlier he would have been close.

Some research shows this for Eli.

450 SX year 1 - 0 wins

450 SX year 2 - 3 wins

450 SX year 3 - 1 win

450 SX year 4 - 9 wins

It’s tough to judge what someone will do unless they’re doing it.  I can see Sexton reeling off 10 win seasons once Eli retires, I can see him not doing it too.  If Jett continues on his current projection?  It will be a matter of how long he races.  RC got his number by the age of 26.  How many wins did Eli have when he was 26?

I'm very biased but I hope no one ever reaches/passes MC.

All depends on next year....  Just glad we get to watch him.  He's short on titles, but every single gate drop you know he's got a better chance of winning than anyone else on the gate...

"I can see Sexton reeling off 10 win seasons once Eli retires, I can see him not doing it too."

With the HL and JL moving up, a 10 win season (even 1) for CS is pretty unrealistic.

And you still have some pretty fast guys that are already in the 450 class.

Can't wait to see what happens.

TM

How would you feel if it ends up tied at 72

Jett has the potential and time to make it happen IMO. 

What's crazy about Tomac's stat is that his 450 career started off pretty rocky if I recall correctly.

Unpopular opinion:

Eli at 50 career wins is far more impressive than MCs 72.