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This is a really good topic with solid points on both sides of the fence.
Personally I support the idea of him moving up early. Check out Savatgy's rookie season as a reference.
AND – even if he didn't title, if he won a shit ton, and had another really solid year, he'd still be getting stronger, getting better prepared, hardened etc. This is really his first year of putting it together. His last two finishes being close at Vegas were really because of his comp dropping the ball. He wasn't the guy in any of those series and he hasn't been at all outdoors.
Of course it's all conjecture and it could work either way, but you can't go back, and there's a fuck-tonne of riders who say they wish they waited. AC's already moved up too early once.
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My only concern is, as someone else stated earlier, if he fails to deliver a title (though seemingly unlikely), does his stock decrease?
I guess regardless, when he is ready, there will be multiple contracts on his desk wanting his signature, regardless of if that's 2020 or 2021.
Coop – perspective I guess.
AC talented as, looking damn good in 2014 as a rookie, a simple crash did way more damage than it shoulda. From there it's been injury, rebuild, injury, rebuild, injury, rebuild and now in his next real crack he just didn't get it done. It's not hard to imagine the weight of expectation and time adding some pressure and really, he wasn't like Savatgy last year. He was looking solid and doing what he needed to do, just as he did the weeks before, and a freak washout on a slick track got him.
Coop, just as talented, has basically had no setbacks until 450s. He's a confident rider who gave himself nothing but confidence over the same timespan with basically no injuries and delivers 3 titles. He's also said things that would indicate he's got reasons and strength in his mind to work with – Two years on a bike he hates (So he's got a reason other than himself to blame) and a couple small injuries. Change teams (Roger D believes in me), get a good result from the back of the pack and then a win and he's away.
With Savagty's successful rookie 450 season, I would be eager to see what he can do in his 2nd year on a bike hes comfortable with. I dont think Savagty will have as successful of a second year if he's having to get use to a new bike and team.
I dont know why or if its just me, but I dont see Savagty adapting to a new bike very quickly and I could see him struggling if he makes a switch.
From what i heard on the pulp show, his vegas crash was due to him hitting a hole on the left side of that jump and it launched him weird. It wasnt like he missed a shift or something because of pressure. Just hit a hole weird.
IMO he will take to it quickly and be a ripper right from the get go.
MX/SX careers are short and rides can be scarce, take the contract that offers the most time on a bike.
If the above is true and Kawasaki were to offer a 3 year deal, Kawasaki/PC have been committed to AC, stay another year in the 250 and then move up, ride is secure.
If X team were to offer a 2 year deal with option for a third, take it, even if it means moving up.
Guess my point is staying down or moving up should be the main focus, securing a ride for the next 2 or 3 years should be.
AC is a prospect, will win 250 or 450.
Okay, it was discussed he signed with Kawi, it was implied on a 450.
IMO J Mart and AC need to move up, both of them. If JMart is staying down because his SX skills aren't on par with MX then that's too bad. He should have been forced up after 17. If he wins the title in 2016 for 3 in a row surely he would have been on a 450 since then.
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I think he should move up, get some pressure off of his back and start building toward a major championship.
What about Pro Circuit? If AC and Davalos both move up to 450, PC has Forkner and Marchbanks left. I haven't looked it up, but I assume they are both still under contract for next year. Who else are they looking at that is an immediate title contender?
Forkner is obviously a title threat for next year whether he goes East or West. I don't see Marchbanks being ready to be the top guy for PC on the other coast.
While Kawasaki's 450 and 250 Factory efforts are separate teams, I have to believe the factory has plenty of pull with both in deciding who ends up where, as they are providing a lot of the $$.
Kawasaki went into this season with a solid chance to win all three SX titles. The fact they came away with none is surprising, but that doesn't change the fact that they want to be in that same position come A1 next year. Tomac and Forkner are still their best shot at 2 of those titles, and neither Savatgy nor AC are likely title contenders next year in the 450 anyway.
I think Savatgy is the key to where AC ends up. If he wants to get paid, and can get a better multi-year deal on another factory team, then I think we see AC on a 450. If Savatgy settles for another 1 year Kawi deal, I think you see AC on the 250 one more year going for that title, then moving up to 450 the year after.
So I put to you- IF he doesn't win ANY of those three championships, but MUST move to 450s in 2021, how attractive is hiring AC actually going to be to the factory teams?? Not very IMHO.. Bare in mind he'll be vying for factory rides with potentially 2 2x SX champs (Sexton & Dylan) (As likely as AC winning, lets face it)
Staying another year in 250s is risky business- basically, he MUST win out to keep his 'stock' at where it is now. Anything short of winning, is damaging. Has AC got the mental robustness to deal with that pressure?? As much as you might not like to hear it, last Saturday night suggests he hasn't.
AC- Move up son.
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