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Podium is plausible but this years MXoN is tailored exactly for the dutch to win. French will be again the contenders but only for second place if nothing goes wrong for team oranje. Then there will be huge podium kerfuffle including USA, GBR, AUS, ITA, BEL and then the dark horses of GER (if Ullrich or Nagl will start moving serious donkey), SWI (if Guillod gets decent bike) and SPA.
Covington on a 250 is a given if his national season is decent. (which it might not considering his confidence is probably down the drain at this point). He´s experienced with the format, the GP tracks in general and actually turned in to a really good sand rider.
Its hard to know what US riders are good sand riders since its basically only southwick each year that has proper sand, and even that isnt the deep soft sand they have in Holland. Who would you say is the best sand riders in the nationals?
Osborne has experience but I cant remember him beeing very good in the sand.
Tomac is probably the best bet just because of his pure speed ceiling and beast-mode. I do however he will have trouble actually winning heats because the same reason because Assen sand is more on flow and finesse than actual balls-to-the-walls Tomac style but he can surely pull of some good results, maybe even podiums.
I feel like the favorites has to be Holland trailed by Belgium, US, Germany, Italy or GB. I feel all these actually have a chance to win as they either have a top rider who will contend for wins or 3 solid placement guys. Like Italy obviously Cairoli will do well and I expect Lupino, Bernadini or Cervellin to put in some solid results. Germany has Jacobi and Nagl who will probably be good and Roczen used to be a torpedo in the sand, although I think he´s lost a lot of that while in the US. GB have Watson now with a really high ceiling and pair that with the experience of Wilson, Anstie, Searle or Simpson. Belgium will always be good. JHV is still really fast and always performs at MXON and so does Desalle. Geerts has shown some amazing speed lately and will probably be a consistant podium guy this year. Throw Leiber in there too. Holland obviously has JH84 and Vlaanderen and if Coldenhoff can get healthy and up to speed in time we know what he can do.
Also, dont be surprised if someone like Jasikonis pulls of a win or two on that track. If he continues to ride better and better like he´s doing and he gets some confidence in him, he will be a beast I think
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I'm not knocking the Euros. They are badass. Herlings is a beast and yes I'm sure he's going to murder everybody at Assen. No American will touch him there, but no other euro will either. Even Cairoli may be too much for an American in deep sand, but those two guys are the only ones we can't beat. Anyone else we can beat with a decent start and not crashing. We got on the podium at Lommel even with a mechanical issue and DNF in one of the Motos. Lommel was a little more extreme and foregn to American riders than Assen.
I'm sure Herlings and Cairoli will be the top finishers in their Motos, but as far as team's go and overall, average finishes, America will he a strong contender for the overall victory or podium if they don't have bikes breaking and/or bikes breaking in qualifying that results in shit gate picks/shit starts.
We just need the right three, enthusiastic guys who are decent in sand, not have horrible suspension set ups again, average luck,, and get familiar with a European starting gate.
America absolutely has a shot at podium and even a shot at winning the event . Anyone who says we don't is a fool.
Zach used to be excellent in the sand while he was over here. I’ve seen it with my own eyes..he was like a 16000rpm blur of crazy fast American haha!
if it would have been good weather , no sand would have been added ... only change would have been start area to fit mxgp stands ...
Pit Row
And there are actually 4 types of MX, you forgot mudders.
Unfortunately there is way too much emphasis on SX here and that's where the money is. Outdoors are nowhere near as important as SX. It's unfortunately the way it is. If we switched over to riding outdoors the majority of the time than we'd have zero excuses.
USA is SX. Euro is MX. That's just the way it is and I don't see that changing anytime soon. So realistically, I don't even know why we bother sending our guys. It's not our main focus and the rest of the world talks shit because we can't hang anymore. It's pointless and realistically means nothing. MXoN is just a dick measuring contest now.
This is all just my opinion and I don't expect everyone to agree, or anyone for that matter.
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