Statistics "Number don't lie"

TeamGreen
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TeamGreen 7/4/2017 1:24pm
7/4/2017 1:24pm
Hank_Thrill wrote:
I think the OP is in a research class. Seems like something I would post a few years ago. The interrater reliability is an easy fix...
I think the OP is in a research class. Seems like something I would post a few years ago. The interrater reliability is an easy fix. Just get more people to do the same experiment he did with the camera and stopwatch.

I say this study be postponed. Before that, have Jason record his thoughts and intentions during that corner, save the recording in a motocross time capsule. Then open it back up five years after his pro career is over so we can post the results in this thread.

I just hope Blake is taking notes of the big picture. What you say off the track can make your life more difficult on the track. Dungey is a great example of what to do. Now imagine if Barcia were ever in the running for a title. There would be at least a dozen guys who could easily make his life extremely difficult.
Casting wrote:
I'm not in a research class. I work part time conducting research that we present at conferences and publish in journals. I realize my post was...
I'm not in a research class. I work part time conducting research that we present at conferences and publish in journals.

I realize my post was really long, probably too long, but I was trying to really explain what I was talking about.
Lester wrote:
Consider your audience, which in this case probably has very low IQs. And a general rule here is that you can't question Team Green because he'll...
Consider your audience, which in this case probably has very low IQs. And a general rule here is that you can't question Team Green because he'll point out that you're a minion. Also, I would just point out that I don't think JT$ was attempting a strict scientific methodology here; I'm sure he was being more anecdotal.
C U at Gopher Dunes?
sbarrington314 7/4/2017 1:29pm
7/4/2017 1:29pm
Maybe the split time is slower because he came in too hot and messed up the corner even before he and baggett come together.
EnvyMedia 7/4/2017 1:42pm
7/4/2017 1:42pm
"Motocross is never the same, lines changes and a simple bobble can cost u seconds" -everyone
"His first lap sector time was not the same as the rest!!! hurr durr" -this article

Lester
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Lester 7/4/2017 1:57pm
7/4/2017 1:57pm Edited Date/Time 7/4/2017 1:59pm
Lester wrote:
Consider your audience, which in this case probably has very low IQs. And a general rule here is that you can't question Team Green because he'll...
Consider your audience, which in this case probably has very low IQs. And a general rule here is that you can't question Team Green because he'll point out that you're a minion. Also, I would just point out that I don't think JT$ was attempting a strict scientific methodology here; I'm sure he was being more anecdotal.
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
"Minion" Laughing Laughing

At least he doesn't start throwing out insults and calling people names.

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jorgechavez 7/4/2017 2:12pm
7/4/2017 2:12pm
I know these guys get a sight lap but they aren't really hitting sections at speed because they want to be able to see the lines and what not, so is it possible that maybe on the first lap he wasn't pushing as hard because he wasn't sure how the section would ride at speed yet? I've never ridden at that level so I have no idea, but it seems like a pretty logical and non tinfoil hat wearing explanation.
aeffertz
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aeffertz 7/4/2017 2:25pm
7/4/2017 2:25pm Edited Date/Time 7/4/2017 2:26pm
A lot of words between JT's article and OPs post to say Anderson was riding a wide bike and took Blake's line away. Which is fine, that's part of racing.
eGGz
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eGGz 7/4/2017 2:26pm
7/4/2017 2:26pm
Wondering how Anderson, on the first lap, could know in advance that Bagget would choose to cut over and not simply rail the outside.
Barry_Smith 7/4/2017 2:54pm
7/4/2017 2:54pm
RG1 wrote:
I really don't think there was anything to this move. I don't think Anderson particularly cared that Baggett crashed, but I put more blame on Baggett...
I really don't think there was anything to this move. I don't think Anderson particularly cared that Baggett crashed, but I put more blame on Baggett than Anderson. Baggett had to know where Anderson was, he has to slow up there and drop in behind JA, I'm not really sure why he went so wide on the first lap anyway. I don't really buy that Anderson must've deliberately slowed because his sector time was slower either. You can see when he comes into the turn and gets into the rut that he gets into the rut at an angle, which unsettles the bike, after this he seems to get on the throttle pretty much as normal. We're only talking about half a second. I know JA has a reputation, but I don't really buy it on this occasion. Baggett can't blame anyone else but himself for his crash
****Agreed. FWIW, my bro and I had a similar - although definitely not identical - incident at the track in about 2015. (For any Melburnians, in the far right bowl turn at Franky.) He took the wide line around the top and I dove to the far inside rut.

Next minute, he comes slingshotting out and slams into my rear wheel and goes down hard. He swore black and blue that I'd "taken him out" and "slammed him".

A couple of days later, he analysed the gopro footage and it revealed that I was in the line already as he was about to exit, but he wasn't quick enough to register and adjust. The camera caught what his brain could not at the time register (due to I guess tiredness, adrenaline).

In this weekend's race, I believe BB4 needed to brake slightly and concede the place, and that failing to do so caused the crash. That is, he didn't adjust when something occurred that was unexpected when he entered the turn, and it bit him on the exit.
PabstBR11
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PabstBR11 7/4/2017 3:02pm
7/4/2017 3:02pm Edited Date/Time 7/4/2017 3:06pm
It was very small, but i thought it was a no brainer that he slowed down a touch. No matter which rider you like or whether it was a good move, from when I watched it live to multiple replays it seemed obvious every time.

I liked it. As someone said above, talk shit and make more enemies this will follow.

Edit: i will concede that the lines def came together right there and Blake should have checked up. But i still think JA21 let off a hair in that moment.
kb
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kb 7/4/2017 3:23pm
7/4/2017 3:23pm
I enjoyed reading JT's article, & he makes a compelling point. But the bottom
line was the outcome, Which BB4 had the opportunity to control, & he didn't.....
He knew it was JA21 behind him, & he knows what that means......
Barry_Smith 7/4/2017 3:33pm
7/4/2017 3:33pm
kb wrote:
I enjoyed reading JT's article, & he makes a compelling point. But the bottom line was the outcome, Which BB4 had the opportunity to control, &...
I enjoyed reading JT's article, & he makes a compelling point. But the bottom
line was the outcome, Which BB4 had the opportunity to control, & he didn't.....
He knew it was JA21 behind him, & he knows what that means......
Cole Seely just put his shirt back on.
DPR250R
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DPR250R 7/4/2017 4:10pm
7/4/2017 4:10pm
sbarrington314 wrote:
Maybe the split time is slower because he came in too hot and messed up the corner even before he and baggett come together.
That's what I saw as well.
TDeath21
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TDeath21 7/5/2017 9:46am
7/5/2017 9:46am
Anderson didn't go for the takeout. He did slow up to make sure that Baggett wouldn't be able to keep his speed and have the drive on Anderson going up the hill. Baggett should have saw that and backed off a little himself.
Johnny Depp
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Johnny Depp 7/5/2017 11:13am
7/5/2017 11:13am
Throttle chop, brake check, stand it up for a minute all achieve the desired result and are hard to detect. BB should have known who he was dealing with for a very serious points chase. Damn ruts.
Acidreamer
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Acidreamer 7/5/2017 11:21am
7/5/2017 11:21am
Seemed like a normal racing incident. I had a feeling this would flare into a debate
Katoomey
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Katoomey 7/5/2017 11:25am
7/5/2017 11:25am
Katoomey wrote:
Get a fuckin life...
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it...
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it make you feel good or is it just a bad habit of yours ? Just curious, since you seem to come off as a tough guy and I'm guessing you're probably just a kid or maybe just haven't grown up yet....
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?
GoldenState54 7/5/2017 1:11pm
7/5/2017 1:11pm
What I saw was Anderson slow up to have Baggett run into the back of him.
Lester
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Lester 7/5/2017 1:36pm
7/5/2017 1:36pm
Katoomey wrote:
Get a fuckin life...
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it...
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it make you feel good or is it just a bad habit of yours ? Just curious, since you seem to come off as a tough guy and I'm guessing you're probably just a kid or maybe just haven't grown up yet....
Katoomey wrote:
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make...
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?


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Mini Elsinore
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Mini Elsinore 7/5/2017 3:41pm
7/5/2017 3:41pm
Now, who here among us hasn't pulled the exact same move----on a freeway? Tongue
TeamGreen
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TeamGreen 7/5/2017 4:18pm
7/5/2017 4:18pm Edited Date/Time 7/5/2017 4:20pm
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it...
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it make you feel good or is it just a bad habit of yours ? Just curious, since you seem to come off as a tough guy and I'm guessing you're probably just a kid or maybe just haven't grown up yet....
Katoomey wrote:
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make...
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?
Lester wrote:
[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2017/07/05/203546/s1200_22ac8884fd0df07355f0ae5a940a4cde42cd257b9387ab734ac927a1653b2dd1.jpg[/img]


Exactly what I was thinking...and he's popping off to an OG-Ol'School Bad Ass that's laughing his ass off at him.
dirtnapper
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dirtnapper 7/5/2017 4:22pm
7/5/2017 4:22pm
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it...
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it make you feel good or is it just a bad habit of yours ? Just curious, since you seem to come off as a tough guy and I'm guessing you're probably just a kid or maybe just haven't grown up yet....
Katoomey wrote:
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make...
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?
Lester wrote:
[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2017/07/05/203546/s1200_22ac8884fd0df07355f0ae5a940a4cde42cd257b9387ab734ac927a1653b2dd1.jpg[/img]


Hahahahaha Laughing that is the FIRST image that popped in to my mind aftsr reading 'Toomeys reply!! Ya beat me to it!
jeffro503
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jeffro503 7/5/2017 4:40pm
7/5/2017 4:40pm
Katoomey wrote:
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make...
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?
Lester wrote:
[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2017/07/05/203546/s1200_22ac8884fd0df07355f0ae5a940a4cde42cd257b9387ab734ac927a1653b2dd1.jpg[/img]


dirtnapper wrote:
Hahahahaha Laughing that is the FIRST image that popped in to my mind aftsr reading 'Toomeys reply!! Ya beat me to it!
Wel , I aint getting in the middle of this ( as I've learned the error's of my ways over the years I've been on here.) BUT....Toomey....Langham is as good a dude as you'll ever find on here. One of the strait and level headed type dudes , that usually never talks any crap and will always have your back. He's also been around the sport a long time , because he's extremely passionate about it. ( same as me. ).

Out of all the websites I post at , this place here , is the one I have to walk on eggshell's most times , because people who disagree with what you have to say....sometimes just go bat shit crazy on you for the smallest thing.

Most all of us are here to bench race. It's what we do here , and the reason these forums thrive is because we don't " Always " agree. Just sayin'.....Langham is a good dude and he means well.
Casting
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Casting 7/5/2017 5:05pm
7/5/2017 5:05pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Yawn
Casting wrote:
I think we all know your opinion of JT and the host of the podcast where he talked about this. Inb4 something about my account join...
I think we all know your opinion of JT and the host of the podcast where he talked about this.

Inb4 something about my account join date.
TeamGreen wrote:
No, I don't think you do. I'm quite the fan of his analysis and opinion: I'm not a fan of the shit that it turns into...in...
No, I don't think you do. I'm quite the fan of his analysis and opinion: I'm not a fan of the shit that it turns into...in here amongst the armchair-warriors. So, my bad for not explaining my "yawn"...

As for his analysis of the splits in that section of the track and on a given lap: I think the simple fact that he was racing with Blake on ONLY the lap in question and fighting for lines with Blake ONLY on that lap could very well explain the longer time (of the split). In a scientific sense, this would be a determining factor for any real empirical data: the only lap where all the necessary variables ARE PRESENT. Not to mention it was the VERY 1ST LAP and riders are flying into lines for the 1st time and bouncing off of crap...for the 1st time.

JT's knowledge and understanding of what's going on out there is well beyond ANY would be insider that's gonna post in here. That doesn't mean his logic for the analysis in this case is correct. In recognition of JT's own words...

"After analyzing the numbers, I hypothesized that Anderson indeed slowed just a touch..." There it is: "hypothesized". I'd introduce the simple consideration that Lap 1 was the only time when these two guys were racing each other...getting in each-other's way...zig zagging across the track...that it did, indeed, Slow Them Down. The data isn't consistent after the 1st lap.

My opinion of JT is that this is an excellent discussion and he brings really good methods to his position.
I should not have assumed. Thanks for sharing your opinion.
TeamGreen
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TeamGreen 7/5/2017 5:30pm
7/5/2017 5:30pm
Casting wrote:
I think we all know your opinion of JT and the host of the podcast where he talked about this. Inb4 something about my account join...
I think we all know your opinion of JT and the host of the podcast where he talked about this.

Inb4 something about my account join date.
TeamGreen wrote:
No, I don't think you do. I'm quite the fan of his analysis and opinion: I'm not a fan of the shit that it turns into...in...
No, I don't think you do. I'm quite the fan of his analysis and opinion: I'm not a fan of the shit that it turns into...in here amongst the armchair-warriors. So, my bad for not explaining my "yawn"...

As for his analysis of the splits in that section of the track and on a given lap: I think the simple fact that he was racing with Blake on ONLY the lap in question and fighting for lines with Blake ONLY on that lap could very well explain the longer time (of the split). In a scientific sense, this would be a determining factor for any real empirical data: the only lap where all the necessary variables ARE PRESENT. Not to mention it was the VERY 1ST LAP and riders are flying into lines for the 1st time and bouncing off of crap...for the 1st time.

JT's knowledge and understanding of what's going on out there is well beyond ANY would be insider that's gonna post in here. That doesn't mean his logic for the analysis in this case is correct. In recognition of JT's own words...

"After analyzing the numbers, I hypothesized that Anderson indeed slowed just a touch..." There it is: "hypothesized". I'd introduce the simple consideration that Lap 1 was the only time when these two guys were racing each other...getting in each-other's way...zig zagging across the track...that it did, indeed, Slow Them Down. The data isn't consistent after the 1st lap.

My opinion of JT is that this is an excellent discussion and he brings really good methods to his position.
Casting wrote:
I should not have assumed. Thanks for sharing your opinion.
No worries: I really do like the fact that JT & others actually look at the data.
wildbill
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wildbill 7/5/2017 6:01pm
7/5/2017 6:01pm
Hank_Thrill wrote:
I think the OP is in a research class. Seems like something I would post a few years ago. The interrater reliability is an easy fix...
I think the OP is in a research class. Seems like something I would post a few years ago. The interrater reliability is an easy fix. Just get more people to do the same experiment he did with the camera and stopwatch.

I say this study be postponed. Before that, have Jason record his thoughts and intentions during that corner, save the recording in a motocross time capsule. Then open it back up five years after his pro career is over so we can post the results in this thread.

I just hope Blake is taking notes of the big picture. What you say off the track can make your life more difficult on the track. Dungey is a great example of what to do. Now imagine if Barcia were ever in the running for a title. There would be at least a dozen guys who could easily make his life extremely difficult.
Casting wrote:
I'm not in a research class. I work part time conducting research that we present at conferences and publish in journals. I realize my post was...
I'm not in a research class. I work part time conducting research that we present at conferences and publish in journals.

I realize my post was really long, probably too long, but I was trying to really explain what I was talking about.
Sr_Vet_Rider 7/5/2017 6:44pm
7/5/2017 6:44pm Edited Date/Time 7/5/2017 6:46pm
Katoomey wrote:
Get a fuckin life...
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it...
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it make you feel good or is it just a bad habit of yours ? Just curious, since you seem to come off as a tough guy and I'm guessing you're probably just a kid or maybe just haven't grown up yet....
Katoomey wrote:
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make...
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?
How am I full of shit ? Take a stroll through your posts and actually read what you've posted. It's not pretty. Sorry if that offends you, but I'm just pointing it out in hopes of you thinking twice before you start hitting the keys in anger. Nobody likes to be called an idiot, it's only askng for people to get defensive and respond with an insult of their own. If that's the way you want to be perceived then ignore my post and carry on....

"First of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts." ~ Well, if you say so. I don't know you, so I really can't respond. But that's no way to live. Sad

"but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?" ~ I don't know what this has to do with being a tough guy on the Internet, but I don't really think that you thought that comment through very well.

wildbill
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wildbill 7/5/2017 9:58pm
7/5/2017 9:58pm
Hey, aren't we talkin' 'bout statistical anomalies here? Smile
Husky360
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Husky360 7/6/2017 12:28am
7/6/2017 12:28am Edited Date/Time 7/6/2017 1:52am
Katoomey wrote:
Get a fuckin life...
Sr_Vet_Rider wrote:
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it...
You sure do seem to talk a lot of shit, name calling and putting people down seem to be a regular thing for you. Does it make you feel good or is it just a bad habit of yours ? Just curious, since you seem to come off as a tough guy and I'm guessing you're probably just a kid or maybe just haven't grown up yet....
Katoomey wrote:
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make...
you're so full of shit... first of all, i am a tough guy. so, im sure i do come off as one. secondly, i dont make any apologies for my posts. i should probably just shut up most of the time, obviously i dont need to insult people to make points, but im not perfect. ...but i stand by every single thing i've ever posted. can you say that?
If you can't be civil then you should take your own advise and shut up most of the time. Will you stand by that please?

langhammx-Next rude person pops up check out their forum topics started to replies ratio. The fewer topics started when there is a higher replies number generally equals a rude person. If you aren't intelligent enough to start threads of your own, wait to post something rude and go away feeling like the tough guy Katoomey talks about.

hyler199
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hyler199 7/6/2017 12:44am
7/6/2017 12:44am
Lmao yo Anderson is sick period. That line belonged to him and Bagget scrwed up and didnt full commit to anything. Anderson might of feathered the clutch a bit, but no way he hit the brakes. Bagget rode right into the side of him? He shoulda stayed on the outside, he biffed the turn already no way he woulda even came close to popping outta that turn side by side let alone infront of Ando. This is MOTOCROSS people. For Faahhk SAKES
Bosco
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Bosco 7/6/2017 2:15am
7/6/2017 2:15am
Casting wrote:
Statistics don't lie, but people can present statistics in a misleading manner (sometimes unintentionally) to misinform their audience. http://racerxonline.com/2017/07/04/breakdown-subtle-shades-of-gray Before I go any further further, I...
Statistics don't lie, but people can present statistics in a misleading manner (sometimes unintentionally) to misinform their audience.

http://racerxonline.com/2017/07/04/breakdown-subtle-shades-of-gray


Before I go any further further, I want to make it clear that I agree Jason Anderson is partially at fault for the collision between himself and Baggett on the opening lap at Red Bud. The part I disagree with is JT's ability to present statistics in a scientifically correct format.

After listening to the RacerX podcast on Monday I was eager to read JT's Breakdown on RacerXOnline. He sounded very confident and repeated "Number don't lie" or some variant of that phrase while hinting that he had used some statistics to back of his difference of opinion with Grant Langston.

Full disclosure, JT is obviously a smarter and more talented racer than I could ever have dreamed of being. No doubt about that. To use a cliche, he has forgotten more about the topic than I probably will ever learn. That being said, I disagree with his use of statistics in his column this week and I even feel a bit awkward attempting to challenge the work of someone who so easily outranks me in terms of knowledge. I mean no disrespect, I only wish to open a dialogue about how I (And potentially others) see this situation.


My first concern is that there is no Inter-Rater Reliability. This basically means that because JT was the only person collecting time's for the section, his times cannot be compared to anyone elses to determine if his times are accurate. To know for sure, it is good to have another person time the section too.

Secondly, and most importantly, JT writes "After analyzing the numbers, I hypothesized that Anderson indeed slowed just a touch in order to make sure Baggett’s intersection point would be filled by a Husky 450.". and here we identify a cardinal rule being broken as JT declares his hypothesis after analyzing data.

Why is this important? When following the scientific method, or attempting to, you always declare a hypothesis before collecting and analyzing data, so as to ensure you do not bias yourself, or participate in what we call "confirmation bias" whereby someone looks for information to confirm an already held belief.

A hypothesis is declared and then tested with the data that is collected, not the other way around.

Thirdly, JT proposes these statistics in a vacuum. Where is the baseline for comparison? How many other riders lap times in this section did JT watch "hundreds" of times, measure, and analyze? None, it seems. Which goes back to the previous point, he was only looking for data to back up a preexisting belief rather than analyzing the totality of the situation (more than a single rider).

People may wonder why I would go through the trouble of posting all this if I generally agree with JT that Anderson did indeed slow slightly to cause contact with Baggett and my reason is this: he claimed "numbers don't lie" on the podcast repeatedly which fools people into thinking that so long as you have numbers to back your point you are more-correct than others.

My thought is, if you are going to go the extra mile and attempt to add statistics to the journalism, at least do it in a scientifically correct manner.

I wonder, am I totally off base and an idiot here? I could be. Does anyone have any similar or differing thoughts on the topic?

Just want to hear the thoughts of other community members.

I happen to think you're bang on the money.

JT thought it went down a certain way, thought up a way to prove what he already thought, and slapped some number down to say "Look guys! I'm right!"

In reality there's too much going on to say that the time difference represents what he thinks it does. Sure he can hypothesize that it does, but despite throwing some numbers in his article, it's still an opinion piece.

Another interesting correlation: The number of deaths by drowning is proportional to the number of ice creams sold. Should be ban all ice cream?

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