History says Roczen and Tomac missed their window to win their first SX Championship

KirkChandler
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KirkChandler
I know they still need to run the races, but it was just an interesting stat I came across.

Since the introduction of 125/250F Supercross in 1985 only one champion (Jeff Emig in 97) has won their first SX title after racing in 3 or more seasons of the premier class. And Emig had a lot of help from McGrath on a Suzuki with mechanicals and Doug Henry (in his 2nd 250 Season) crashing with Button and breaking his wrist, to clinch his title in 97.

Tomac and Roczen are entering their 4th season of 450 Supercross, they will have to disrupt this trend to beat Dungey and the other riders in their 1st, 2nd and 3rd seasons in the class.

1989-2016 Champions (125/250 Class available to race):
Villopoto (2011-14) 3rd 450 Season
Dungey (2010,15,16) 1st 450 Season
Stewart (07,09) 3rd 450 Season
Reed (04,08) 2nd 250 Season
Carmichael (01-03,05,06) 3rd 250 Season
Emig (1997) 6th 250 Season
McGrath (93-96,98-00) 1st 250 Season
Bayle (1991) 3rd 250 Season
Stanton (1989,90,92) 3rd 250 Season

1974-1988 Champions (all started racing before 125 Supercross):
Johnson (1986,88) 6th Season
Ward (1985,87) 7th Season
Omara (1984) 4th Season
Bailey (1983) 4th Season
Hansen (1982) 3rd Season
Barnett (1981) 4th Season
Bell (1980) 4th Season
Hannah (1977,78,79) 2nd Season
Weinert (1976) 3rd Season
Ellis (1975) 2nd Season
Karsmakers (1974) 1st Season
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kkawboy14
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kkawboy14 1/3/2017 4:34pm
1/3/2017 4:34pm
Stanton?
KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/3/2017 4:36pm
1/3/2017 4:36pm
kkawboy14 wrote:
Stanton?
He raced 250 SX in 87 and 88 for Yamaha, won the championship for Honda in 89. Never raced 125 Supercross.
mx836
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mx836 1/3/2017 4:38pm
1/3/2017 4:38pm
This is Tomac's third season in SX on a 450 and the first year he collided with Weimer in a qualifier at A1. Missed a good chunk of the season.
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kkawboy14 1/3/2017 4:38pm
1/3/2017 4:38pm
kkawboy14 wrote:
Stanton?
KirkChandler wrote:
He raced 250 SX in 87 and 88 for Yamaha, won the championship for Honda in 89. Never raced 125 Supercross.
To many rules to this game Wink

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KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/3/2017 4:45pm
1/3/2017 4:45pm
mx836 wrote:
This is Tomac's third season in SX on a 450 and the first year he collided with Weimer in a qualifier at A1. Missed a good...
This is Tomac's third season in SX on a 450 and the first year he collided with Weimer in a qualifier at A1. Missed a good chunk of the season.
Tomac did miss quite a few races in 2014, but finished 13th in points. Raced 10 races and had 2 podiums. 2014 counts as a season in my opinion. Finished 2nd in points in 2015, and 4th in 2016. He's entering his 4th season of 450 Supercross.
Dirty Points 1/3/2017 4:56pm
1/3/2017 4:56pm Edited Date/Time 1/3/2017 5:00pm
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough comparison to Roczen/Tomac who had to move up after one.
mx836
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mx836 1/3/2017 5:00pm
1/3/2017 5:00pm
mx836 wrote:
This is Tomac's third season in SX on a 450 and the first year he collided with Weimer in a qualifier at A1. Missed a good...
This is Tomac's third season in SX on a 450 and the first year he collided with Weimer in a qualifier at A1. Missed a good chunk of the season.
KirkChandler wrote:
Tomac did miss quite a few races in 2014, but finished 13th in points. Raced 10 races and had 2 podiums. 2014 counts as a season...
Tomac did miss quite a few races in 2014, but finished 13th in points. Raced 10 races and had 2 podiums. 2014 counts as a season in my opinion. Finished 2nd in points in 2015, and 4th in 2016. He's entering his 4th season of 450 Supercross.
I seemed to think he missed more than that. I stand corrected.
KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/3/2017 5:00pm
1/3/2017 5:00pm
Dirty Points wrote:
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough...
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough comparison to Roczen/Tomac who had to move up after one.
James won 2 125SX titles. He raced 125 Supercross in 02/03/04. 125 SX Champion in 03 and 04.

They have always pointed guys out of 125/250F supercross (Ferry in 97). It used to be if you won 2 125SX championships you were bumped out permanently.
mx836
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mx836 1/3/2017 5:04pm
1/3/2017 5:04pm Edited Date/Time 1/3/2017 5:08pm
Dirty Points wrote:
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough...
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough comparison to Roczen/Tomac who had to move up after one.
Was Roczen forced up after winning 250 SX in '13, or did he choose to? Pretty sure that was his third season anyway meaning Roczen and Tomac both had as long to get the job done as Stew.
Dirty Points 1/3/2017 5:07pm
1/3/2017 5:07pm
Dirty Points wrote:
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough...
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough comparison to Roczen/Tomac who had to move up after one.
KirkChandler wrote:
James won 2 125SX titles. He raced 125 Supercross in 02/03/04. 125 SX Champion in 03 and 04. They have always pointed guys out of 125/250F...
James won 2 125SX titles. He raced 125 Supercross in 02/03/04. 125 SX Champion in 03 and 04.

They have always pointed guys out of 125/250F supercross (Ferry in 97). It used to be if you won 2 125SX championships you were bumped out permanently.
Cool. My point still stands that the criteria has been different since '07 in a way that gives some of these guys extra time compared to history.
Dirty Points 1/3/2017 5:08pm
1/3/2017 5:08pm
Dirty Points wrote:
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough...
But pointing out of the little bikes didn't start until around 2007. So, as an example, JS7, who won 3 125SX titles would be a tough comparison to Roczen/Tomac who had to move up after one.
mx836 wrote:
Was Roczen forced up after winning 250 SX in '13, or did he choose to? Pretty sure that was his third season anyway meaning Roczen and...
Was Roczen forced up after winning 250 SX in '13, or did he choose to? Pretty sure that was his third season anyway meaning Roczen and Tomac both had as long to get the job done as Stew.
Stew was just an example, the rules difference is the greater point.
KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/3/2017 5:11pm
1/3/2017 5:11pm
mx836 wrote:
Was Roczen forced up after winning 250 SX in '13, or did he choose to? Pretty sure that was his third season anyway meaning Roczen and...
Was Roczen forced up after winning 250 SX in '13, or did he choose to? Pretty sure that was his third season anyway meaning Roczen and Tomac both had as long to get the job done as Stew.
Kenny raced 3 seasons of 250F Supercross (11,12,13), so he was bumped up after 2013 because he won the title in his 3rd season. If he wouldn't have won the title in 2013 he could have raced 250's again in 14.

Tomac raced 3 seasons of 250F Supercross (11,12,13) won the title in 2012 in his second season and had the opportunity to defend his title in his 3rd season (the Canard rule).
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Markee 1/3/2017 5:42pm
1/3/2017 5:42pm Edited Date/Time 1/3/2017 5:53pm
What color are the sweet pants you are wearing right now Kirk? Need a hobby? A job?
KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/3/2017 6:01pm
1/3/2017 6:01pm
Markee wrote:
What color are the sweet pants you are wearing right now Kirk? Need a hobby? A job?
Motocross is my hobby and used to be my job.
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kiwifan 1/3/2017 7:19pm
1/3/2017 7:19pm Edited Date/Time 1/4/2017 12:54am
The great thing about history is that eventually it is likely to be re-written Smile
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tprice07 1/4/2017 6:55am
1/4/2017 6:55am
Lol as if history has any influence on who wins...
BobPA
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BobPA 1/4/2017 6:58am
1/4/2017 6:58am
If Kenny does not win an SX championship in his career, something is wrong with the world.

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crusty_xx 1/4/2017 7:02am
1/4/2017 7:02am
Pretty cool stat.
Roczen has redefined history a couple of times already. Why not this time?
Pepe
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Pepe 1/4/2017 7:04am
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BobPA wrote:
If Kenny does not win an SX championship in his career, something is wrong with the world.
Damon Bradshaw already proved there is something wrong with the world.
Adam43
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Adam43 1/4/2017 8:51am
1/4/2017 8:51am
Good analysis, but I think their window will be extended a bit just due to the relative lack of upcoming talent to challenge them.

Will Webb or the Martins knock off these guys in the next 2-3 years? Savatgy? Can't see it. Forkner or Plessinger maybe, given enough time.
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RG1 1/4/2017 9:37am
1/4/2017 9:37am
The stats are one thing, but Roczen and Tomac are hardly at the last chance saloon here. They're both still in their early 20's with multiple years left to win titles. If they have missed their opportunity to win a title, who is it that you think will stop them winning one? Rumours are that Dunge is out after this year, I don't see anyone else right now that can step up and win a title other than Roczen or ET
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TBOLTUSA 1/4/2017 9:55am
1/4/2017 9:55am Edited Date/Time 1/4/2017 10:04am
RG1 wrote:
The stats are one thing, but Roczen and Tomac are hardly at the last chance saloon here. They're both still in their early 20's with multiple...
The stats are one thing, but Roczen and Tomac are hardly at the last chance saloon here. They're both still in their early 20's with multiple years left to win titles. If they have missed their opportunity to win a title, who is it that you think will stop them winning one? Rumours are that Dunge is out after this year, I don't see anyone else right now that can step up and win a title other than Roczen or ET
I agree with the observation
however
We could see one of the other guys step up like Marvin , Jason Anderson or Cole Seely
these guys just minor improvement over last season and they have been improving
especially if we talking historically it seems like your third year in the big boy class is your year to pull it off or not
KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/4/2017 10:55am
1/4/2017 10:55am
RG1 wrote:
The stats are one thing, but Roczen and Tomac are hardly at the last chance saloon here. They're both still in their early 20's with multiple...
The stats are one thing, but Roczen and Tomac are hardly at the last chance saloon here. They're both still in their early 20's with multiple years left to win titles. If they have missed their opportunity to win a title, who is it that you think will stop them winning one? Rumours are that Dunge is out after this year, I don't see anyone else right now that can step up and win a title other than Roczen or ET
They aren't at a last chance to win, since Emig is already an outlier and proved with persistence and the right season anything is possible. I also don't think Kenny and Eli are mentally beat yet. Normally after a guy loses for 3 or 4 years their competition has the mental advantage and it takes an exceptional event to change that.

But guys have won championships in later seasons of their career, (Dungey has won in season 1, 6, & 7)(Reed in 2 &5) (RC in 3,4,5,7&8) (MC in 1,2,3,4,6,7&8). It's just the first one normally comes at or before year 3 in the premiere class.

I could see Anderson/Seely/Webb take the reigns from Dungey. Or Kenny or Eli takes it. Who knows? Someone could come out of left field to win.

No one thought McGrath would dominate in 93. Bradshaw and Stanton were the men, Keidrowski and Larocco were the next guys. In 2010 no one would have predicted Bubba and Reed would make way for 7 straight years of domination by the Ryans.

Just an interesting stat.
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jbutton 1/5/2017 11:14pm
1/5/2017 11:14pm
KirkChandler wrote:
I know they still need to run the races, but it was just an interesting stat I came across. Since the introduction of 125/250F Supercross in...
I know they still need to run the races, but it was just an interesting stat I came across.

Since the introduction of 125/250F Supercross in 1985 only one champion (Jeff Emig in 97) has won their first SX title after racing in 3 or more seasons of the premier class. And Emig had a lot of help from McGrath on a Suzuki with mechanicals and Doug Henry (in his 2nd 250 Season) crashing with Button and breaking his wrist, to clinch his title in 97.

Tomac and Roczen are entering their 4th season of 450 Supercross, they will have to disrupt this trend to beat Dungey and the other riders in their 1st, 2nd and 3rd seasons in the class.

1989-2016 Champions (125/250 Class available to race):
Villopoto (2011-14) 3rd 450 Season
Dungey (2010,15,16) 1st 450 Season
Stewart (07,09) 3rd 450 Season
Reed (04,08) 2nd 250 Season
Carmichael (01-03,05,06) 3rd 250 Season
Emig (1997) 6th 250 Season
McGrath (93-96,98-00) 1st 250 Season
Bayle (1991) 3rd 250 Season
Stanton (1989,90,92) 3rd 250 Season

1974-1988 Champions (all started racing before 125 Supercross):
Johnson (1986,88) 6th Season
Ward (1985,87) 7th Season
Omara (1984) 4th Season
Bailey (1983) 4th Season
Hansen (1982) 3rd Season
Barnett (1981) 4th Season
Bell (1980) 4th Season
Hannah (1977,78,79) 2nd Season
Weinert (1976) 3rd Season
Ellis (1975) 2nd Season
Karsmakers (1974) 1st Season
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston was his fault. I was moving forward and he was going backwards and the collision cost me at least a podium, doubt I would have caught Ezra that night, but don't place the blame on Doug loosing that championship on me. I was on the bike and know exactly what happened.
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jeffro503 1/5/2017 11:24pm
1/5/2017 11:24pm
KirkChandler wrote:
I know they still need to run the races, but it was just an interesting stat I came across. Since the introduction of 125/250F Supercross in...
I know they still need to run the races, but it was just an interesting stat I came across.

Since the introduction of 125/250F Supercross in 1985 only one champion (Jeff Emig in 97) has won their first SX title after racing in 3 or more seasons of the premier class. And Emig had a lot of help from McGrath on a Suzuki with mechanicals and Doug Henry (in his 2nd 250 Season) crashing with Button and breaking his wrist, to clinch his title in 97.

Tomac and Roczen are entering their 4th season of 450 Supercross, they will have to disrupt this trend to beat Dungey and the other riders in their 1st, 2nd and 3rd seasons in the class.

1989-2016 Champions (125/250 Class available to race):
Villopoto (2011-14) 3rd 450 Season
Dungey (2010,15,16) 1st 450 Season
Stewart (07,09) 3rd 450 Season
Reed (04,08) 2nd 250 Season
Carmichael (01-03,05,06) 3rd 250 Season
Emig (1997) 6th 250 Season
McGrath (93-96,98-00) 1st 250 Season
Bayle (1991) 3rd 250 Season
Stanton (1989,90,92) 3rd 250 Season

1974-1988 Champions (all started racing before 125 Supercross):
Johnson (1986,88) 6th Season
Ward (1985,87) 7th Season
Omara (1984) 4th Season
Bailey (1983) 4th Season
Hansen (1982) 3rd Season
Barnett (1981) 4th Season
Bell (1980) 4th Season
Hannah (1977,78,79) 2nd Season
Weinert (1976) 3rd Season
Ellis (1975) 2nd Season
Karsmakers (1974) 1st Season
jbutton wrote:
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston...
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston was his fault. I was moving forward and he was going backwards and the collision cost me at least a podium, doubt I would have caught Ezra that night, but don't place the blame on Doug loosing that championship on me. I was on the bike and know exactly what happened.
You know Jimmy.....If that is you , you should try posting more then once every 10 years. Smile I don't blame you for not wanting to post before , but just the same , it's very cool having you here.
smashingpumpkins167 1/5/2017 11:34pm
1/5/2017 11:34pm
Sounds like he will have to try hard and have a little luck on his side....just like any other rider who isn't named Ryan Dungey.
KirkChandler
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KirkChandler 1/6/2017 12:02am
1/6/2017 12:02am
jbutton wrote:
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston...
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston was his fault. I was moving forward and he was going backwards and the collision cost me at least a podium, doubt I would have caught Ezra that night, but don't place the blame on Doug loosing that championship on me. I was on the bike and know exactly what happened.
Not placing blame, I could have explained it further and to be honest my memory of 20 years ago isn't as clear as yours, since I watched it on TV and you were obviously there.

You were on a roll at Minneanapolis and Houston and coming through the pack for back to back podiums. When you guys had that racing incident, it did ultimately end his championship chase. Whole situation was a bummer.
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jbutton 1/6/2017 9:12pm
1/6/2017 9:12pm
jbutton wrote:
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston...
Just as an FYI, I didn't land on Doug. Doug made a mistake and turned under me while i was passing him. The collision in Houston was his fault. I was moving forward and he was going backwards and the collision cost me at least a podium, doubt I would have caught Ezra that night, but don't place the blame on Doug loosing that championship on me. I was on the bike and know exactly what happened.
KirkChandler wrote:
Not placing blame, I could have explained it further and to be honest my memory of 20 years ago isn't as clear as yours, since I...
Not placing blame, I could have explained it further and to be honest my memory of 20 years ago isn't as clear as yours, since I watched it on TV and you were obviously there.

You were on a roll at Minneanapolis and Houston and coming through the pack for back to back podiums. When you guys had that racing incident, it did ultimately end his championship chase. Whole situation was a bummer.
No hard feelings just wanted to put it out there. Some things you never forget as a lot of people got on my ass because of what happened.

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