YIKES!!!! NOT A GOOD SIGN

APLMAN99
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2/4/2016 10:03pm
mxpro252 wrote:
Its a bummer. There are some indicators that the US economy is about to head down another dark path for a while and it doesn’t seem...
Its a bummer. There are some indicators that the US economy is about to head down another dark path for a while and it doesn’t seem like the sport fully rebounded to pre-2007 levels.
WFO! wrote:
I think we are solidly on that dark path already. Consumer spending has come to a screeching halt since December.
Consumer spending always comes to a screeching halt after December..........
philG
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2/5/2016 12:44am
Everyone who wants one has one... I struggle to comprehend how the markets expect constant perpetual growth , without people taking a breath to catch up.

Unless people just buy for the sake of buying , it has to flatten out. Novelty tech stuff like this always does.

Anyway, its about time for the 1% of the1% to cream off what little we have left .. cant print money out of thin air forever...oh wait..
Markee
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2/5/2016 5:37am
Its a great business move to offer a product that is no better than the previous model and sell it at the same price = Session. Then go "My bad, we'll cut the price in half" Here you go. Um no thanks.
WFO!
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2/5/2016 6:02am
mxpro252 wrote:
Its a bummer. There are some indicators that the US economy is about to head down another dark path for a while and it doesn’t seem...
Its a bummer. There are some indicators that the US economy is about to head down another dark path for a while and it doesn’t seem like the sport fully rebounded to pre-2007 levels.
WFO! wrote:
I think we are solidly on that dark path already. Consumer spending has come to a screeching halt since December.
APLMAN99 wrote:
Consumer spending always comes to a screeching halt after December..........
Spending slows but doesn't halt.
Spending FLAT in December and DOWN in January 2016.
That's far worse than the usual "January/post holidays/first credit card statement" blues.
You couldn't sell a 20 dollar bill for 10 dollars right now.

The Shop

IWreckALot
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2/5/2016 6:05am
Jrewing wrote:
GoPro suck. Glad to see them burn. Over-priced. Anti-competition.
Chad Reed? Is that you?
2/5/2016 6:40am
I don't know how applicable this is to the rest of the country, but I had an interesting conversation with a guy who worked at the local Kawasaki dealership here in Missouri over the whole 2 stroke/4 stroke thing.

He told me that when everyone was racing 2 strokes it was common for them to sell 50 or 60 bikes per year, but with the move to 4 strokes they sell about 10-12 per year on average. Now I realize that the economy probably played a role in that and that this guy could also be completely full of shit, but he didn't seem like it. He seemed to think the bigger price tag and the increased price of maintenance that go with the 4 stroke were the cause of the big discrepancy in sales.

I've had both 2 strokes and 4 strokes and have enjoyed each so I don't really have a side in the fight, but I thought what that guy had to say was interesting.
2/5/2016 7:06am
it was the thing everyone had to have, playing a sport, going to a car meet, vacation, gift, ect ect. Now everyone has one, and they either have a bunch of video they never do anything with, or if they make videos do no one is watching it. I have the HD hero 1 i still use will grab a whip or corner video with for shits and giggles, but go out and buy a new one? no thanks, id rather save for a nice camera that can take video
early
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2/5/2016 7:11am
WFO! wrote:
I think we are solidly on that dark path already. Consumer spending has come to a screeching halt since December.
I work in manufacturing/plant tooling design, we usually work about 6-18 months ahead of the consumer release schedule for some very large companies. Our orders in the last 6 months have been very bad...
APLMAN99
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2/5/2016 7:30am
WFO! wrote:
I think we are solidly on that dark path already. Consumer spending has come to a screeching halt since December.
APLMAN99 wrote:
Consumer spending always comes to a screeching halt after December..........
WFO! wrote:
Spending slows but doesn't halt. Spending FLAT in December and DOWN in January 2016. That's far worse than the usual "January/post holidays/first credit card statement" blues...
Spending slows but doesn't halt.
Spending FLAT in December and DOWN in January 2016.
That's far worse than the usual "January/post holidays/first credit card statement" blues.
You couldn't sell a 20 dollar bill for 10 dollars right now.
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before.

This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on spending, despite the need some have to play Chicken Little.



OldPro277
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Avonmore, PA, USA
2/5/2016 8:14am
I don't know how applicable this is to the rest of the country, but I had an interesting conversation with a guy who worked at the...
I don't know how applicable this is to the rest of the country, but I had an interesting conversation with a guy who worked at the local Kawasaki dealership here in Missouri over the whole 2 stroke/4 stroke thing.

He told me that when everyone was racing 2 strokes it was common for them to sell 50 or 60 bikes per year, but with the move to 4 strokes they sell about 10-12 per year on average. Now I realize that the economy probably played a role in that and that this guy could also be completely full of shit, but he didn't seem like it. He seemed to think the bigger price tag and the increased price of maintenance that go with the 4 stroke were the cause of the big discrepancy in sales.

I've had both 2 strokes and 4 strokes and have enjoyed each so I don't really have a side in the fight, but I thought what that guy had to say was interesting.
Yes Dark, that was the main direction of my original post. I didn't want this to spiral into a State of the Union address on the National economy,just the fact that our sport is in a bit of trouble. One of my best friends has been a Yamaha dealer for 40 years, and the drop off in MX bike sales in the last 10 years (pretty much after the novelty of the 4 stroke wore off) is staggering. What you stated is an absolute truth through out . These guys survive solely on quads and SXS sales . And it doesn't take a Mensa member to understand why. Less money being spent on new bikes = less race day turnout= less aftermarket parts= fewer companies making said aftermarket parts and ultimately less and less interest by the grass roots fans that can no longer afford to compete . And yes ,I believe it all started with rise and temporary popularity of the 4 stroke MX movement.In the last 10-12 years I have personally have watched our local scene go from 250+ entries on a given weekend( even 20+ A class) with most guys racing multiple classes on at least 2 diff bikes , to 75 (3-5 in A class ) and most guys down to just one bike.--typically a 450.
IWreckALot
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2/5/2016 8:18am
APLMAN99 wrote:
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before. This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on...
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before.

This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on spending, despite the need some have to play Chicken Little.



When the market crashed in 2008, did the stock market start crumbling before consumer spending fell, or was it the other way around? I seem to remember it was stock market first, then consumer spending started falling off.
APLMAN99
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2/5/2016 11:17am
APLMAN99 wrote:
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before. This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on...
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before.

This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on spending, despite the need some have to play Chicken Little.



IWreckALot wrote:
When the market crashed in 2008, did the stock market start crumbling before consumer spending fell, or was it the other way around? I seem to...
When the market crashed in 2008, did the stock market start crumbling before consumer spending fell, or was it the other way around? I seem to remember it was stock market first, then consumer spending started falling off.
The statement made was that consumer spending had dropped dramatically. It hasn't done anything other than the post Christmas drop that is quite normal.

It may or may not drop in the future, but it hasn't thus far.
andyyam
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2/5/2016 12:47pm
Over in the UK any type of rider cam has ben banned from all cycling sports by British Cycling and any type of helmet or body cam has been banned by the ACU which is the main governing body of motorcycle sport .
Beast666
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2/5/2016 1:09pm
Lets see 3 minnows in the ocean having issues and it is the end of the worlds economy.

GoPro - Lets see they whore themselves out selling an inexpensive product at first then release a new version every 12-18 months at a much steeper price and wonder why sales are down??? The investors that jumped at the IPO at $35 a share is now pissed that it is selling at $10. Nothing more than greedy piss poor management same as what UTI did with there stock IPO at $26 and now at $4, 12 years later.

RAD and PG small companies with a limited market and plenty of competition.

The economy is not the greatest of shape but it is not doing real bad either. The company I work for, my division 2nd qtr rev is up $1 Billion over the same period last year. And no I do not work for a military contractor...
bama205
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2/5/2016 1:34pm
Should I sell my house now?
WFO!
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2/5/2016 2:12pm Edited Date/Time 2/5/2016 2:33pm
I'm not sure where you guys get your news from.

Gallup polls?

I trust the Wall Street Journal and my own personal experience first. Almost 25 years in business for myself and I know when things are abnormally slow. This is the slowest January I've had ever.

And February isnt looking any better right now.

"Positive Mental Attitude" will only take you so far. Some would say you would be sticking your head in the sand to ignore the weak spending right now.







RMT
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2/5/2016 2:50pm Edited Date/Time 2/5/2016 2:52pm
WFO! wrote:
I'm not sure where you guys get your news from. Gallup polls? I trust the Wall Street Journal and my own personal experience first. Almost 25...
I'm not sure where you guys get your news from.

Gallup polls?

I trust the Wall Street Journal and my own personal experience first. Almost 25 years in business for myself and I know when things are abnormally slow. This is the slowest January I've had ever.

And February isnt looking any better right now.

"Positive Mental Attitude" will only take you so far. Some would say you would be sticking your head in the sand to ignore the weak spending right now.







No offense, but the Wall St. Journal is owned by someone who has a vested interest in everyone being scared right now so I wouldn't put much credence into anything that rag puts out. Its a shame as it used to be the bible for business.

I think some of you guys are blaming 4 strokes for a natural progression in consumer spending. People tend to be into different things as time goes on and MX is losing out to other sports and newer technologies just as much as its dwindling from the 4 strokes. UTV's have taken off and they are twice the price of a new MX bike and they break all the time, so its not the money.

It wasn't that long ago a company named Blockbuster was sponsoring College bowl games and the darling of Wall Street. Times change.
WFO!
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2/5/2016 3:08pm Edited Date/Time 2/5/2016 3:16pm
Then how about Forbes? They suck too?

They have the Consumer Spending forecast down a little over a point from last month.

And from what I've seen so far of February thats a charitable forecast.

Again, I'm going by what I see first before anything.



RMT
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2/5/2016 3:26pm
WFO! wrote:
Then how about Forbes? They suck too? They have the Consumer Spending forecast down a little over a point from last month. And from what I've...
Then how about Forbes? They suck too?

They have the Consumer Spending forecast down a little over a point from last month.

And from what I've seen so far of February thats a charitable forecast.

Again, I'm going by what I see first before anything.



Yes, Forbes sucks too. Wink

mxpro252
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2/5/2016 3:29pm
bama205 wrote:
Should I sell my house now?
Yes, and use the money to buy a bunch of GoPro's.
WFO!
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2/5/2016 3:31pm Edited Date/Time 2/5/2016 3:32pm
Of course they do. (Rolls eyes)

Again I have my own experience. And nobody can tell me different. Sales are unusually slow right now. Hell, they are deader than fried chicken.
2/5/2016 3:45pm
guys,guys........it will be fine.
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SCR
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2/5/2016 4:59pm
To simplify things very greatly, the post 2008 economic "recovery" has only postponed the pain we did not endure during that recession into the future. The...
To simplify things very greatly, the post 2008 economic "recovery" has only postponed the pain we did not endure during that recession into the future. The "recovery" since then has been financed by enormous amounts of debt, public and private, with each incemental increase in debt generating less growth.

US Federal Debt:
Jan-27-1994 $4,512,950,244,156 ($4.5 trillion)
Jan-27-2002 $5,929,295,811,441
Jan-27-2008 $9,203,187,681,379 $(9.2 trillion)
Jan-27-2010 $12,274,431,428,037
Jan-27-2013 $16,432,519,875,802
Jan-27-2016 $19,012,827,698,417 ($19.012 trillion)

Not sustainable, and certainly not unique to the USA only.

Gizmos, graphics and aftermarket wheels are very easy things to cut back on when the tough times start.
Janet yelen says everything is A OK. Of course Bernanke and Paulson said the same thing right before they got blind sided and acted like they never saw it coming.
Hcallz5
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2/5/2016 5:40pm
More people are buying a $150 Sony Actioncam instead of a $400 Hero4 just like I did. Most footage you get from these cameras isn't perfect to begin with. People are realizing they don't need unsteady footage that's hard to watch in 4K.

Bummer.
kzizok
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2/5/2016 9:27pm
mgifracing wrote:
Kzizok, I guess your able just to throw out 3/4 of a mil to add a new line. Trust me, We've been trying to get KTM...
Kzizok, I guess your able just to throw out 3/4 of a mil to add a new line. Trust me, We've been trying to get KTM for a while. So flame me for giving an honest opinion of the dirtbike market in my area. Believe it or not KTM dirtbikes don't have that much margin either once a dealer actually looks at the freight they pay to put them there. Luckily the dealership I'm at now is more rural oriented and the mules take care of themselves for the most part.
No, I understand your point. Really the point I was making is that some if a company really listens to what people want, then they will sell.

KDM711
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2/5/2016 9:51pm
APLMAN99 wrote:
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before. This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on...
Spending is the same this year as last. December was slightly better than the year before.

This season follows the established pattern. There's no clampdown on spending, despite the need some have to play Chicken Little.



IWreckALot wrote:
When the market crashed in 2008, did the stock market start crumbling before consumer spending fell, or was it the other way around? I seem to...
When the market crashed in 2008, did the stock market start crumbling before consumer spending fell, or was it the other way around? I seem to remember it was stock market first, then consumer spending started falling off.
The stock mkt is always first, as it is an anticipatory gage for the economy usually forecasting economic events 6 to 9 months ahead of time. And it is certainly saying that we are currently heading toward recessionary times. This last 7 years has been a false recovery. Alls we did was adapt & adjust, whereas no real growth.
mxpro252
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2/5/2016 10:59pm
We all have our opinions and strategies for finding out when s*** is gonna hit the fan. I have mine; as an analyst dealing with every type of company with annual revenue between $50-500 million, I'm seeing a lot of downturns compared to upgrades based on financial performance for companies across the country. I have no interest in a bad economy, but I'd start paying down my interest bearing debt as much as possible and be prepped for a few rough years from 2017-2020.
sergio
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San Diego, CA, USA
2/27/2016 2:04pm
WFO! wrote:
Spending slows but doesn't halt. Spending FLAT in December and DOWN in January 2016. That's far worse than the usual "January/post holidays/first credit card statement" blues...
Spending slows but doesn't halt.
Spending FLAT in December and DOWN in January 2016.
That's far worse than the usual "January/post holidays/first credit card statement" blues.
You couldn't sell a 20 dollar bill for 10 dollars right now.
Uh, if you're selling 20 dollar bills for 10 bucks, I'll buy as many as you'll sell.
2/27/2016 2:12pm
You gotta think about China, which buys our steel, coal, and a lot of other stuff. They are not doing very well.
OPEC is no longer a market balancer but trying to kill US production with a supply glut. They can make money at $20/barrel but the US can't.

I doubt that has much to do with GoPro, though. I would think the action sports/recreational consumer demographic is still chugging along pretty well.

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