We learned that no matter what you think is going to happen, it never does.
Jett Lawrence is back, and he is older and wiser. His heat race behind Anderson, showed he wasnt prepared to risk anything, and the same in the main, he bided his time, and showed speed when he needed to. I didnt see any moments where he looked out of shape, and with all the drama this week he remained focused , and got the job done.
Ken Roczen. Seems like no matter how things go during the day , Kenny can do it come the main, he made great passes early, and put pressure on for the first half of the race, if he hadnt have got that rhythm wrong when he passed Jett, i think he had a shot at Anderson, and he may have been able to escape, at least a little bit, putting pressure on Jett to go with him early, while the conditions were at their worst. To see him with the Red Plate after 3 rounds, is totally against the run of play. And yet here we are. Without his accident, back in the day , this man would be a multi-time 450 champion.
Jason Anderson had a San Diego to forget, he didnt perform as you would have expected, with illness being cited as the reason, which as we know, has been rife. Its easy to forget that he was on the podium at A1, but his heat race showed he still has the speed, and holding Jett off for the win was a big deal. A fit and healthy Jason Anderson is still a threat. Dont count him out ever.
Chase Sexton had a below par A2 , but he should go away happy. this was the kind of race where he could have easily have gone down in the slick conditions early on, based on his previous seasons, but he stayed in it, solid 4th and in contention, until he dropped off mid race, i can only assume he made a mistake, because he came back to the front 3, but Jett made the pass and started to stretch it out, and with the track having a 'dry' line for the last 10 mins,it was going to be hard to do much without risking it all. Solid day, move on .
Hunter Lawrence, as with Jett, had a lot on his plate this week , but his 5th place looked a lonely ride, after an initial good start and getting shuffled back to 6th, passing Justin Cooper as he faded was as good as he could have hoped for in the circumstances, and i think he still has something to offer in the coming rounds.
Justin Cooper had a 'breakout' day , after sucking in the heat , and finding himself in the LCQ, which to be honest, is a bit of embarrassment for a rider of his calibre, his killer start in the main, showed he has the speed, and leading for as long as he did , that must be good for his confidence, but realistically, this is where he needs to be every week, 6-8 or else he isnt going to be the 3rd guy on that team.
Eli Tomac 'Tomaced' a bit last night, a 10 second win in what was the weakest heat didnt give us a true indication of where he was going to be, but i didnt expect him to be so bad, at least early on, he made little or no progress for the first few laps, and what progress he did hake was helped massively by AP wiping Ferrandis out , but eventually he got going, and i guess the track being sketchy didnt help, but he needed to be better earlier , and that cost him, he could easily have extended his points lead here and didnt, but he is still a force for the whole season
Cooper Webb was invisible most of the night,heat race and main, where he had a Tomac level start and came through, almost catching Tomac at the end, i expected him to be a force in the conditions, but his start did for him . 10 points off the lead. Do not write him off.
Mookie, Barcia and Savatgy all had steady rides, Mookie 'fade' looks worse cos he goy mugged by Eli and Webb late on, but other than that , he wasnt under pressure much, Barcia was a bit invisible, as was Savatgy but he made progress to be the best of the non Factory guys (bar Kenny) and thats decent.
Hat tip to Bloss and Oldenberg for getting the Beta's where they did , both moved forward in the main.
250
After 2 poor rounds Deegan needed to bounce back and did, but he wasnt dominant, 3rd in qualifying wasnt what he expected, nor me, but with him and Beaumer in the same heat , you were going to get something if they both gated, and we did, Beaumer looked a bit 'on edge' and tried to ride with speed to get away , but he had a few clips that gave Deegan his opportunity, and he took it, while it wasnt dirty, for a heat it was uneccessary, but hey , 'its supercross' . With the start he had, and the conditions, it wasnt likely Beaumer was going to risk falling down, he had one shot, into turn 2, but was 1'4 of a bike too far back after a small bobble to fire Deegan into the tough blocks he had seen earlier on.
In the heat, Deegan had that massive moment that deserved a crash , but luck was on his side, that would have been a huge swing on the night, mentally had he wadded in the heat.
Beaumer looks mentally solid and is riding well, he just needs to stay focussed and not get drawn into Deegan's antics, and he will be fine, is he had put Deegan down on lap one, that would have been a huge move for the Series, Deegan is lucky its a weak coast , else he would be further back. Glendale look like a track that will be down to speed and no mistakes , with the long lanes, i dont know who i fancy more for the win there, although, like most people, i am in the 'anyone but Deegan' camp on this.
Cole Davies gets his first podium, when he deserved it more last week, but its great to see him do it so soon, now he needs a win, i cant see a single thing that he needs to improve to do that, just a tad more speed . Maybe the Triple Crown will be his friend.
Jordon Smith lobbed away a certain podium going for 2nd place, which i like, and i am kinda bummed about too, it only cost him one place, and a point or two, but i think the fact he didnt settle shows that he still backs himself to win. At some point.
Coty Schock again showed that he is worth every penny that they are paying Michael Mosiman. Heat race win, was nice , even if it was the easier of the two, but he led well and showed great speed and another good finish keeps him in the hunt in the points. Nothing not to like here.
Jo Shimoda, at a guess, had less points after 3 rounds in 2024 than he has this year , with a 4-22-4 against 1-7-6 in 2025, and he is riding well, with what is a nasty injury. And while he isnt 'in it' , he certainly isnt 'out of it', be interesting to see how Glendale goes for him, before he gets a rest to heal up.
You have to say that with 3 rounds gone, we know less than we did before the season started, 3 different winners in both classes, nobody running away with it, in 450 there are still 3 guys capable of a win who havent managed one, but i think it may be a few rounds before we see a different rider on the top step from here on out.
I think Tomac actually had a great points management night. He got a bad start, didn't over-ride a sketchy slick track and managed to finish just outside the top 5. No reason to take unnecessary risks at round 3.
3rd round even with so many top guys getting injured the top 5 250 racers within 17 points and top 5 450 racers within 10 points.
Its still 10 racers with a shot at the title.
Great season.
Both Tomac and Sexton has failed to make the most out of Jetts problems. If they want to beat him over the full season they need to be better than this.
It’s still clear to the blind eye that the Honda oversteers and if he can beat them with almost a second in qualifying and work around the problems in the main to still win with this bike, I doubt that we will see the battles this full season that people were hoping for after the first two rounds.
It will be interesting to know if they swapped out Eli's wheel after the sight lap, i know he has not done that in the past , and its bit him, but the rain was always going to make things happen.
I dont disagree, but for just a bad start, he didnt tip off like Sexton at San Diego, he took a while to get going, which old Eli always did, but the track maybe didnt help for sure.
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Nice, well thought out analysis. Quality post, deserving of more up than down votes.
Eli was 16 seconds down from the lead when he got into 10th place about halfway through the race, and he finished 16 seconds down. That tells me he could've easily won, had he started up front. It's really too bad - his pace in the heat was nuts.
2 weekends in a row that Deegs skirted a really gnarly one in the heat.
I'm a tomac for the title guy myself, but moto math like that almost never works. Too many variables.
Outstanding as always Phil.
Jett goes on a winning streak and builds a points lead, which seems likely.
When you look at everyones fastest laps, half the field were doing 1.00-1.01 There was a speed the track would stand , and that was it.
He would have been there with a start
Cheers.
I hope you are wrong, i see Sexton, Jett and Eli as the likely winners, but i want it raced for for as long as we can.
The front wheel looks so far tucked back on this years bike.
They said in the broadcast that chase wasn’t feeling good this weekend. He may have picked it up from AP7. Still I was happy he took what he could comfortably get. Good ride by all the top guys
Decent analysis, although I disagree about Tomac. Had he not spun the tire, he would have had something for them at the front.
You’re failing to take factors in to account.
Eli had time to catch up- he must push harder.
Jett is in the lead- all he has to do is maintain a gap. No need to push harder than necessary.
This is why they use pitboards- so riders can measure and assess where their competitors are at.
Chase didn’t look good.
Lots of mistakes when he was behind Anderson. And I saw him pushing that front tyre again, albeit not going down this time.
*Jett did make a sizeable mistake, immediately after passing Anderson for the lead.
Weak ride for Anderson.
1. Sexton was sick
2. Weak ride? Anderson finished on the podium and won his Heat 🤣
What about Andersons performance was “weak” ?
Pit Row
What I like about the 450 class: Great racing, 3 different winners, 5 points between the top 3, great sportsmanship, no one running their mouth.
What I dislike about the 250’s: Opposition pit board attack on Joe, Deegan running his childish mouth.
Letting Kenny by.
If that was 2023 Anderson would’ve won that.
Ok, it’s 2025 and Jett is maybe acceptable to let by. But it was surprising to see Kenny pass him without much of a fight.
Anderson- Factory team. Up to date bike.
Roczen- Non factory. Supposed dated bike..
I’m a bigger Roczen & Suzuki fan than I am Anderson and Kawasaki, I was simply surprised to see that outcome, that’s all.
Anderson was ill last week and struggled.
He was good in his heat, and led the main after passing Cooper and had Jett within a second for 6 or 7 laps, Jett made a good pass that he couldnt defend, and the Kenny made a good move into the sand as Anderson decided to go outside, maybe thinking it would be faster, and Kenny passed him in a straight line by getting back on the ground faster.
That was a good day for him, after San Diego
Probably get flamed for this but I thought Anderson looked like a slightly faster Vince Friese, a moving road block. Held up Jett/Kenny the entire heat race and part of the main because nobody wants to get taken out. He wasn't faster he was wider.
But he was fast at the start getting by them all no doubt, but then its like he dropped anchor and just rode a wide bike.
He was leading on a sketchy track, a lot easier to follow when its like that , laptime analysis says you are wrong, he was only 0.3 off Lawrence on his top 5 laptime average, and he is riding off the front not chasing.
Anderson races, every mini rider should be made to watch how hard he fights for his position, its called being a racer.
I agree it is easier to follow, but once Jett passed him Jett set sail, Anderson couldn't keep up and then also got passed by Kenny. So being only 0.3 seconds slower resulted in 3rd place and 4 seconds behind at the checkers...
Dropped an anchor back to 3rd?
The track had dried out a lot , Cooper led the hardest part, Anderson passed him and ran a good pace, and then got passed by the guy that has won everything for the last 3 seasons, and another guy who was riding on top of his game.
He finished 4 seconds off the win, and held off Sexton , who has won a race already this year.
I dont know what you expect, i would suggest a 'not ill last week' Anderson would have been faster if the track had allowed it , but in the conditions, you go as fast as the track lets you .
Do you think Anderson is better than Jett?
Pretty sure he said he was still a little fucked up from being sick, too
Nice write up!
All I know is that I'm disappointed if I don't see Roczen go from about 10th to at least 3rd in the first three corners. Once again, not disappointed. 😄
I just rewatched the start and the first 2 laps, without that bobble in the first rhythm on lap 2 when he had already passed Jett , and was going to pass Hunter, he would have passed Anderson and Cooper and would have been gone. Maybe.
Great point, and in future, i am going to rewatch both races .
Post a reply to: It keeps getting better , what we learned at A2.