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3754
Joined
2/25/2020
Location
Ivoryton, CT
US
Edited Date/Time
9/25/2024 2:52pm
Lets face it, we have a geriatric, aging group of American SX, MX or SMX riders who are in the twilight of their illustrious careers. How much time do they realistically have left? Meanwhile the two imports from Australia are pretty much still wet behind the ears. We have some great youngin's too, but they are on 250's and might be for years to come. Estimate how long you think these guys can keep it up. Bear in mind they are the sports elder statesmen already.
Anderson, Barcia, Craig, AP, Tomac, Roczen, Webb, Stewart, etc. Feel free to add to the list.
Anderson two more years. Tomac 1 more. Roczen 1-2 more. Webb 1-2 more. AP is young enough. The rest of the list is irrelevant.
I posted the following in a different thread. It's difficult to tell how much longer some of those guys will want to continue racing. Barcia and Anderson are in their 30s and in their last year of their contract and both have said they want to continue racing while Tomac already announced 2025 will be his final full year. Nicoletti just retired.
A lot of guys are in their 30's or close to it.
Aaron Plessinger 28 (29 in January '25)
RJ Hampshire 28 (29 in January '25)
Marshal Weltin 28 (29 this October)
Cooper Webb 28 (29 this November)
Jordon Smith 29 (30 in February '25)
Justin Hill 29 (30 in May '25)
Anthony Rodriguez 29 (30 in July '25)
John Short 29 (30 in October '25)
Cade Clason 29 (30 this November)
Joey Savatgy 30 (31 in February '25)
Colt Nichols 30 (31 in March '25)
Ken Roczen 30 (31 in April '25)
Dylan Ferrandis 30 (31 in May '25)
Mitchell Oldenburg 30 (31 in July '25)
Shane McElrath 30 (31 in August '25)
Jason Anderson 31 (32 in February '25)
Justin Starling 31 (32 in March '25)
Max Anstie 31 (32 in April '25)
Jeremy Martin 31 (32 in May '25)
Malcolm Stewart 31 (32 this October)
Eli Tomac 31 (32 this November)
Fredrik Noren 32 (33 in March '25)
Justin Barcia 32 (33 in March '25)
Dean Wilson 32 (33 this December)
Vince Friese 33 (34 this October)
Christian Craig 33 (34 in July '25)
Phil Nicoletti 35 (36 in March '25) * Retired
Josh Hill 35 (36 in July '25)
Kyle Chisholm 36 (37 this December)
If I were a European/Aussie/Kiwi hot rod...I'd think serious about testing the US waters in the next few years. Just sayin'.
Depends what level they want to be at. Chad Reed didn't seem to care about literally getting lapped as long as he could continue to lap up the adulation of the fans. I can imagine Anderson being one of those guys. We already know Tomac is not like that, hence his retirement after next year.
Anderson - one year remaining at Kawi then done in terms of getting a top flight deal with longstanding factory team (not Ducati, Triumph etc).
Tomac's retiring after one more year.
Roczen - Probably three more years max, not sure what teams though - but not one of the top ones.
Barcia - One more year then done, won't get another top factory ride.
Webb - two years tops then done. I don't reckon he'll want to stick around unless he's competitive.
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Given Brayton and Reed won SXs at 33 and looking at Mav’s list above, I think Tomac and Roczen are the only ones that could possibly match that achievement. But Eli’s retiring after next year.
However I can imagine Kenny hanging around and doing select races, even if it’s on his own deal.
Either way, there’s big change coming.
OP needs to cope.
Sooner or later the teams will starting to give theese riders the foot.
The last couple of years we have started to see the back end of the riders form and speed.
Basicaly 99% of the riders on that list are not title contenders in the 450 class any more so how long can the teams justify having them there and taking up a spot for some talanted 250 rider?.
I’d say that within two years 70% of that list has retired or is racing WSX to earn some last money.
But i don’t see a rider like Anderson going to a satelite team if he gets the foot from factory Kawi.
What saves many of the names on the list right now is the under performance of the 250 guys this season beside Haiden.
Not just this season but several season. There is a whole generation of riders who grew up at training facilities and for whatever reason can not compete at the professional level.
Some of them are definitely on Ducati shopping list.
Grab a top rider past his prime, he doesn't have the opportunity for a top factory bike anymore but will bring a wealth of knowledge and get them decent results.
Roczen?
It's a similar situation in the British Championship for the most part, old guys running up front as the next generation just aren't good enough.
SMX $$$$$$ will keep them around longer. 2030 to 2035 gonna be some great racing at Loretta Lynns.
Barcia wants to do another deal for 2026-27 for SX, MX, SMX.
Webb intends on at least going through '27 as well.
Tomac would probably do SX only in '26.
I believe we’ll see some guys like Barcia, Ferrandis, Anderson and more that enjoy racing, keep going until they aren’t competitive anymore. Until they get pushed out by the up and coming young bucks and lose their rides.
I'm all for some turnover in the 450 class, and freeing up the log jam in the 250 class in the process.
Don't be surprised if Barcia reunites with Troy Lee for a couple of years before calling it a career.
If that happens, which young rider will they go after that has the potential to podium and win races.
I have no idea.
No one talking about Justin Cooper finally being a 450 Rookie this year at age 27....
It's not unusual, but it's not the norm either.
RJ Hampshire will be 29 when he moves up next year.
Martin Davalos was 30 when he did 450 outdoors and then moved up full time in 2021 at 33.
Alex Martin was 32 when he moved up.
I must be bored, here's what I came up with for how the classes could look in a couple of years. Note at least 10 fresh faces in the 450 class and plenty of new blood in the 250 class:
450
Lawrence – HRC
Lawrence – HRC
Sexton – KTM
Plessinger – KTM
Hampshire – Husky
Vialle – Husky
Deegan – Star
Cooper – Star
Brown - Star
Prado – Kawi
Shimoda – Kawi
Forkner – Triumph
Smith – Triumph
Roczen – HEP
Nichols - HEP
Barcia – Ducati
Mosiman – Ducati
Bloss – Beta
Oldenburg - Beta
Others – Anderson(?), Webb (?), Ferrandis(?), McAdoo, Marchbanks, Savatgy, Mookie, Anstie, Hill, Drake, McElrath, Noren, Craig
250
Kitchen – PC
Adams – PC
Hammaker - PC
Dudney – PC
Hymas – HRC
De Wolf - HRC
Cole Davies – Star
Avery Long – Star
Thrasher – Star
Bennick - Star
Beaumer – KTM
Coenen – KTM
Cochran – Husky
Coenen – Husky
Robertson – Triumph
Swoll -Triumph
Vohland - Club
Reynolds – Club
Fineis – Club
Schock - Club
Others – Ryder D, Masterpool, Lopes, Towers, Romano, Schwartz, Gordon, Janik, Woods, Gibson, McNabb, Fauser, Hawkins, Mumford, Temmerman
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