MIC on tariffs

4/25/2025 11:06am
dcg141 wrote:
No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S...

No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant sell-off, causing yields to rise and bond prices to fall. This was going on while equities were also falling. I've never seen that in decades of investing. Usually during a stock downturn everyone flocks to US treasuries but they were being sold off as fast as stocks were. It showed a really unprecedented lack of confidence in the US as a safe haven for investors. Had it continued....well that's uncharted territory. Absolutely it was triggered by the tariffs. 

Japan and China own a lot of US bonds, and they could cash them in and put some real hurt on the US if they wanted. I heard that a lot of the bonds that were sold were Japanese owned.  On the story they were doing, the reporter had the opinion that China could sell off a giant amount of bonds and hurt the US if they wanted to. They own a large amount of them.  According to the financial person on one of the network news channels.  But it would also hurt China.  

4
4/25/2025 11:38am
Zycki11 wrote:
Couple things wrong with what you are saying. First, the stock market is not tied to the economy but forward thinking. People were absolutely killing it long...

Couple things wrong with what you are saying. 

First, the stock market is not tied to the economy but forward thinking. People were absolutely killing it long before Trump came in with insider trading.

Second when it comes to your assumptions they are just that and you are implying quite a lot in your thoughts without proof of anything. 

Tariffs are a tool for better negotiating nothing more.


As a day trader and investor I see it from the market side and what your saying simply is inaccurate and doesn’t hold water. 

So yah, of course there has been insider trading forever. So who cares right?  Otherwise, there wouldn't be a term for it. I saw that there are...

So yah, of course there has been insider trading forever. So who cares right?  Otherwise, there wouldn't be a term for it.

 I saw that there are allegations that there has been some insider trading done by a politician close to trump on the news the other day.   

My Dad lost a ton of money from his 401K when the market crashed in 2008. He wasn't able to work long enough to see it recover and retired with almost half of what he had before the crash. I realize that the market ups and downs are not direct reflections of the general economy. But a lot of people use them as indicators. And it sure impacted my Dad's ability to buy stuff. 

 

Trump has been making decisions about the pause of tariffs, or he has said that is why. Based on the market and bond trading.  

Why has the reasoning changed so many times if tariffs are a tool for negotiation?  Couldn't the threat of tariffs have done the same thing without the big downs and ups in the market?  

 

 When they have a different reason for the tariffs to be in place or paused, or raised, etc. every other day, it makes it hard for me to trust that there is a plan. To me it all looks like its reactions to whatever happens and not a well thought out plan. The explanations that are given always changing is sending out a confusing message.   

Zycki11 wrote:
Everyone lost money in 2008 save the people who betted on the decline and the bankers who paid themselves ridiculous bonuses and salary increases from money...

Everyone lost money in 2008 save the people who betted on the decline and the bankers who paid themselves ridiculous bonuses and salary increases from money the fed printed to bail out the banks. 

Sorry you have negative feelings but you are blending your emotions and what is actually happening. 

The stock market is designed to transfer money from the poor to the wealthy. Unless you understand the game. Timing is the game  

The point being that people in the same position are being hurt by the tariffs today and having to pay higher prices for everything. 

I am not blinded by emotion; I was just giving a real-world example of something I saw firsthand.  He wasn't handling any of the trades, it was the company that was in charge of his 401K.  

 

Just like in 2008, People who have money will make more.  Only this time it was triggered by a single person and not a group of greedy banks. 

 

Personally, I did well during that crash. I got some nice things at great prices or free because people were having to move and couldn't take things with them. But I met many people that were selling stuff I was buying that lost their homes or had to sell and move to an apartment, etc.

 

Can You explain how this current destruction all helps the average person? If anything, its driving more of a wedge between people and will hurt the people who can afford it the least the most.  

 I agree that many people are all distracted. Thinking that people who voted the opposite way they did are enemies. Many politicians using fear of made up or things that a minority of the extreme ends of a party are doing. Getting us all to fight with each other instead of focusing on what we agree on and getting something done. They have us all argue and distract us.  

  

 

3
4
MOTO13
Posts
549
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Location
Elkhorn, WI US
4/25/2025 12:21pm

Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US. I am sure that is still going on. 

2
Zycki11
Posts
7791
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL US
4/25/2025 12:47pm
So yah, of course there has been insider trading forever. So who cares right?  Otherwise, there wouldn't be a term for it. I saw that there are...

So yah, of course there has been insider trading forever. So who cares right?  Otherwise, there wouldn't be a term for it.

 I saw that there are allegations that there has been some insider trading done by a politician close to trump on the news the other day.   

My Dad lost a ton of money from his 401K when the market crashed in 2008. He wasn't able to work long enough to see it recover and retired with almost half of what he had before the crash. I realize that the market ups and downs are not direct reflections of the general economy. But a lot of people use them as indicators. And it sure impacted my Dad's ability to buy stuff. 

 

Trump has been making decisions about the pause of tariffs, or he has said that is why. Based on the market and bond trading.  

Why has the reasoning changed so many times if tariffs are a tool for negotiation?  Couldn't the threat of tariffs have done the same thing without the big downs and ups in the market?  

 

 When they have a different reason for the tariffs to be in place or paused, or raised, etc. every other day, it makes it hard for me to trust that there is a plan. To me it all looks like its reactions to whatever happens and not a well thought out plan. The explanations that are given always changing is sending out a confusing message.   

Zycki11 wrote:
Everyone lost money in 2008 save the people who betted on the decline and the bankers who paid themselves ridiculous bonuses and salary increases from money...

Everyone lost money in 2008 save the people who betted on the decline and the bankers who paid themselves ridiculous bonuses and salary increases from money the fed printed to bail out the banks. 

Sorry you have negative feelings but you are blending your emotions and what is actually happening. 

The stock market is designed to transfer money from the poor to the wealthy. Unless you understand the game. Timing is the game  

The point being that people in the same position are being hurt by the tariffs today and having to pay higher prices for everything. I am not...

The point being that people in the same position are being hurt by the tariffs today and having to pay higher prices for everything. 

I am not blinded by emotion; I was just giving a real-world example of something I saw firsthand.  He wasn't handling any of the trades, it was the company that was in charge of his 401K.  

 

Just like in 2008, People who have money will make more.  Only this time it was triggered by a single person and not a group of greedy banks. 

 

Personally, I did well during that crash. I got some nice things at great prices or free because people were having to move and couldn't take things with them. But I met many people that were selling stuff I was buying that lost their homes or had to sell and move to an apartment, etc.

 

Can You explain how this current destruction all helps the average person? If anything, its driving more of a wedge between people and will hurt the people who can afford it the least the most.  

 I agree that many people are all distracted. Thinking that people who voted the opposite way they did are enemies. Many politicians using fear of made up or things that a minority of the extreme ends of a party are doing. Getting us all to fight with each other instead of focusing on what we agree on and getting something done. They have us all argue and distract us.  

  

 

Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long time placed us further and further away from being able to come back cleanly without volatility. Many will complain because it isn't instantly better, long term it will be.  

1
4

The Shop

4/25/2025 12:47pm
MOTO13 wrote:
Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US...

Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US. I am sure that is still going on. 

    I'm not sure how it will impact smaller, direct ship orders from China. But in the past, if You had a shipment under $2500 You did not have to pay a tariff on it.  I have noticed a big increase in advertisements from Chinese direct marketplaces and websites recently in my feeds.  I've been wondering if that was still possible.   I have not done much with China imports for my biz so I'm not sure about the limits from China. But imports from other countries have been set at $2500 before having to pay.

 I had a shipment from a supplier in the UK that had started to outsource some production to China, I had no idea until I had an issue with the customs paperwork. This was a year or 2 ago. At the time, if ANYTHING at all was coming from China, no matter its value. And the total shipment was over $200; it triggered some extra steps that needed to be done to release the shipment from customs.  At first the company I was dealing with said they would take care of it. But Customs kept asking for more info. I ended up getting 2 Fedex people to help me fix the paperwork. I had a direct way to call or email, and depending on what time it was I would get one or the other. They worked together to help people deal with customs stuff over different time zones. It was great to be able to chat with them at 11PM est. It blew my mind how detailed the information they wanted had to be. Crazy how in depth they are with tracking products from China.  The item that triggered the customs paperwork, a roll of silicone vent hose.    

1
4
RichieW13
Posts
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Location
Thousand Oaks, CA US
4/25/2025 12:54pm Edited Date/Time 4/25/2025 12:55pm
MOTO13 wrote:
Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US...

Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US. I am sure that is still going on. 

    I'm not sure how it will impact smaller, direct ship orders from China. But in the past, if You had a shipment under $2500...

    I'm not sure how it will impact smaller, direct ship orders from China. But in the past, if You had a shipment under $2500 You did not have to pay a tariff on it.  I have noticed a big increase in advertisements from Chinese direct marketplaces and websites recently in my feeds.  I've been wondering if that was still possible.   I have not done much with China imports for my biz so I'm not sure about the limits from China. But imports from other countries have been set at $2500 before having to pay.

 I had a shipment from a supplier in the UK that had started to outsource some production to China, I had no idea until I had an issue with the customs paperwork. This was a year or 2 ago. At the time, if ANYTHING at all was coming from China, no matter its value. And the total shipment was over $200; it triggered some extra steps that needed to be done to release the shipment from customs.  At first the company I was dealing with said they would take care of it. But Customs kept asking for more info. I ended up getting 2 Fedex people to help me fix the paperwork. I had a direct way to call or email, and depending on what time it was I would get one or the other. They worked together to help people deal with customs stuff over different time zones. It was great to be able to chat with them at 11PM est. It blew my mind how detailed the information they wanted had to be. Crazy how in depth they are with tracking products from China.  The item that triggered the customs paperwork, a roll of silicone vent hose.    

The "de minimis" threshold for China was $800.  But that ends next week.  Biden was considering ending it, but Trump did.

 

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/cheap-shopping-just-ended-…

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1
4/25/2025 1:06pm
Zycki11 wrote:
Everyone lost money in 2008 save the people who betted on the decline and the bankers who paid themselves ridiculous bonuses and salary increases from money...

Everyone lost money in 2008 save the people who betted on the decline and the bankers who paid themselves ridiculous bonuses and salary increases from money the fed printed to bail out the banks. 

Sorry you have negative feelings but you are blending your emotions and what is actually happening. 

The stock market is designed to transfer money from the poor to the wealthy. Unless you understand the game. Timing is the game  

The point being that people in the same position are being hurt by the tariffs today and having to pay higher prices for everything. I am not...

The point being that people in the same position are being hurt by the tariffs today and having to pay higher prices for everything. 

I am not blinded by emotion; I was just giving a real-world example of something I saw firsthand.  He wasn't handling any of the trades, it was the company that was in charge of his 401K.  

 

Just like in 2008, People who have money will make more.  Only this time it was triggered by a single person and not a group of greedy banks. 

 

Personally, I did well during that crash. I got some nice things at great prices or free because people were having to move and couldn't take things with them. But I met many people that were selling stuff I was buying that lost their homes or had to sell and move to an apartment, etc.

 

Can You explain how this current destruction all helps the average person? If anything, its driving more of a wedge between people and will hurt the people who can afford it the least the most.  

 I agree that many people are all distracted. Thinking that people who voted the opposite way they did are enemies. Many politicians using fear of made up or things that a minority of the extreme ends of a party are doing. Getting us all to fight with each other instead of focusing on what we agree on and getting something done. They have us all argue and distract us.  

  

 

Zycki11 wrote:
Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long...

Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long time placed us further and further away from being able to come back cleanly without volatility. Many will complain because it isn't instantly better, long term it will be.  

So, is that the real goal? A global recession to reset inflation?   I've been saying that was really the only way to keep inflation under control (other than the government giving money to some manufactures and raw materials suppliers, etc. to bring costs down by subsidizing some key areas). Get the money away from the people who spend it and drive up the costs of everyday items. and reduce demand. A correction of the free money that BOTH parties pumped out during covid. Free money that for me, was easier to get under Trump than Biden. Anybody who applied for Covid relief funds for a business would know what I mean.   

   

For a while it's been like clockwork. Boom and bust every 10 years. I've always thought it was almost by design to help control inflation. It just sucks that so many people who can afford it the least will suffer as a result. Now I see it's also a way for Rich people to increase their wealth and buying power. 

 

So, Trumps not trying to bring manufacturing back, or have other countries give him some sort of favor. He is just destroying things on purpose. I guess He would be the guy for the job. With all his failed business, he knows what he's doing in that aspect.   

 

Or if You're looking for a giant distraction, He is great at putting on a show and entertaining. Makes me sometimes put my tinfoil hat on and wonder what could be going on that would be worth a distraction of this level?   

5
6
RichieW13
Posts
2458
Joined
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Location
Thousand Oaks, CA US
4/25/2025 1:38pm
Zycki11 wrote:
Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long...

Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long time placed us further and further away from being able to come back cleanly without volatility. Many will complain because it isn't instantly better, long term it will be.  

What is going to get more expensive before it gets cheaper?

2
4/25/2025 1:45pm

Well China has secretly cut back on it's retaliatory tariffs on some goods. Which means they are worried about their own economy but not willing to publicly declare it. Most likely not wanting to look weak. Seems both Xi and Trump both know this is unsustainable. 

5
4/25/2025 2:00pm
MOTO13 wrote:
Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US...

Are the Chinese still spending billions building factories in Mexico and then selling/shipping their crap duty/tariff free to the US? Basically dodging tariffs to the US. I am sure that is still going on. 

    I'm not sure how it will impact smaller, direct ship orders from China. But in the past, if You had a shipment under $2500...

    I'm not sure how it will impact smaller, direct ship orders from China. But in the past, if You had a shipment under $2500 You did not have to pay a tariff on it.  I have noticed a big increase in advertisements from Chinese direct marketplaces and websites recently in my feeds.  I've been wondering if that was still possible.   I have not done much with China imports for my biz so I'm not sure about the limits from China. But imports from other countries have been set at $2500 before having to pay.

 I had a shipment from a supplier in the UK that had started to outsource some production to China, I had no idea until I had an issue with the customs paperwork. This was a year or 2 ago. At the time, if ANYTHING at all was coming from China, no matter its value. And the total shipment was over $200; it triggered some extra steps that needed to be done to release the shipment from customs.  At first the company I was dealing with said they would take care of it. But Customs kept asking for more info. I ended up getting 2 Fedex people to help me fix the paperwork. I had a direct way to call or email, and depending on what time it was I would get one or the other. They worked together to help people deal with customs stuff over different time zones. It was great to be able to chat with them at 11PM est. It blew my mind how detailed the information they wanted had to be. Crazy how in depth they are with tracking products from China.  The item that triggered the customs paperwork, a roll of silicone vent hose.    

RichieW13 wrote:

The "de minimis" threshold for China was $800.  But that ends next week.  Biden was considering ending it, but Trump did.

 

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/cheap-shopping-just-ended-…

 I think it makes sense to get rid of it with what he is saying he's trying to do with tariffs. I don't like that it will eliminate an inexpensive way of getting some things for me. But on the other hand, I haven't done much with ordering from China anyway. I've looked and got prices on tons of things. A Factory gave me a $100 credit, and it blew me away what I could have made as a sample for $100 or less. I ended up letting it expire with the craziness that's been going on in my personal life. 

They wanted me to give them some ideas and designs for motocross products they could make. They make mostly sublimated fabric stuff. Canopy's (ezups), floor mats and inflatable stuff like the arches at finish lines.  Shipping was often more than the item.

 

He/they gave plenty of notice about it ending. Perhaps they could have done the same thing with the other tariffs and not caused the big dips to the market? 

 

I think that everybody posting on here, would love to see more stuff made in the country they live in. And more, higher paying jobs for the people that live there. It's too bad that instead of trying to gather the support of that aspect and implement a plan that more people would feel had a better chance of working. They are blowing everything up and creating even more of a divide. And have the same people who could be helping work towards the goal, working against them. 

2
WFO Dave
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4/25/2025 2:19pm
FlyingBob wrote:
Looks like a Chinese commercial.Buy your hoses in America.  Oh, that's right, sent all that manufacturing ability to China.And China has always been a fair trader...

Looks like a Chinese commercial.

Buy your hoses in America.  Oh, that's right, sent all that manufacturing ability to China.

And China has always been a fair trader regarding American goods... right.

I'll take Trump any day of the week.

Tariffs are a negotiating tool. Remember when Ross Perot said if you pass NAFTA there will be a large sucking sound coming from America. Well he was 100% correct. The amount of tariffs China and other countries put on US goods is incredible. Trump and America will win. Short term pain for long term gain.

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Luxon MX
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Fantasy
4/25/2025 2:53pm
RichieW13 wrote:

What is going to get more expensive before it gets cheaper?

Everything is going to get more expensive. Not sure about the cheaper part...

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burn1986
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4/25/2025 3:20pm Edited Date/Time 4/25/2025 3:25pm

China's exports to the US last year were 2.8% of their GDP, only some of the Chinese workers will feel the pinch.

Why?

I thought you said you only targeted politicians in the US. You pop out stats, arguments, and charts against the US almost instantly. What does it matter to Australia? I realize that you are monitored on what you say, in fact you’re so quick to bash the US, I can’t help but wonder if there’s some other motive? Odd. Even the craziest anti trumper can’t post as fast as you. It’s like it’s automated or something. Weird.

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bvm111
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4/25/2025 4:13pm
IMG 3643 1
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1
4/25/2025 7:29pm
dcg141 wrote:
No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S...

No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant sell-off, causing yields to rise and bond prices to fall. This was going on while equities were also falling. I've never seen that in decades of investing. Usually during a stock downturn everyone flocks to US treasuries but they were being sold off as fast as stocks were. It showed a really unprecedented lack of confidence in the US as a safe haven for investors. Had it continued....well that's uncharted territory. Absolutely it was triggered by the tariffs. 

Japan and China own a lot of US bonds, and they could cash them in and put some real hurt on the US if they wanted...

Japan and China own a lot of US bonds, and they could cash them in and put some real hurt on the US if they wanted. I heard that a lot of the bonds that were sold were Japanese owned.  On the story they were doing, the reporter had the opinion that China could sell off a giant amount of bonds and hurt the US if they wanted to. They own a large amount of them.  According to the financial person on one of the network news channels.  But it would also hurt China.  

There were rumors that Canada, France, Germany and Japan colluded and sold US Treasury bonds together.

We'll have to wait until the April data is released to confirm...

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

image 1547
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4/26/2025 9:50am

Mike Rowe on a podcast today said there are 482000 jobs unfilled in the manufacturing sector.  Let that sink in for a minute. 

There are also 100's of thousands of construction job openings . And that number looks to have been increasing every year.  

 I have a lot of customers that own various construction companies . Landscape construction, environmental clean ups,  site work, Builders, handyman style do it all, Etc. And they all have said its very difficult to get qualified workers. 

I blame the school system for the problem locally. When I was in school they always pushed collage and said that factory jobs and construction were bad options that You should avoid.  So many people my age and younger , high school kids that I've had work for me over the years. Most are stuck on the idea that they need collage to do well. But have no idea what exactly they want to do.  

I have always told them that trade school or getting a job in construction at an entry level in the field they are interested in, is a better option in my opinion. And You can get paid to learn instead of going into debt. and working and going to school at the same time. So far most have gone into working ion construction in some way. And are doing well. One of them wanted to be an engineer and that makes sense for him to go to school for that. He did and now has his own company reboring and pinning  heavy equipment . 

 

There's already a lack of qualified labor. I suspect that there will be a lot of work visa's needed to get the labor to build the new shiny factories. If they ever are built. 

 

I'm not saying I disagree (with the Pro whatever is going on people) with making more stuff in the US, or offering people a way to make a better living. I just think that it is not possible to do in the way they are trying to do it. If that is even what they are trying to do.  

 

Can any of the pro tariff/Trump people explain why a trade deficit is bad, how it actually hurts the US?  I don't think its really a bad thing. the GDP overall of the country seems like it should matter more than what other places buy from  the US. Its not going to help lower taxes or the deficit by having equal trade. If the US consumes a lot more of its own stuff they make instead of exporting it, How will exporting more help? Importing less , but making things more expensive  seems like it would hurt more.

6
4
Zycki11
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Location
Edwardsville, IL US
4/26/2025 10:49am
Zycki11 wrote:
Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long...

Anyone who understands economics knows that it would get more expensive before cheaper.  Most expect it to be a perfect transition. The Government for a long time placed us further and further away from being able to come back cleanly without volatility. Many will complain because it isn't instantly better, long term it will be.  

RichieW13 wrote:

What is going to get more expensive before it gets cheaper?

Anything the United States starts to manufacture over other countries. The goal is self sustainment... Most are just scared because they are familiar with the status quo. 

1
6
lumpy790
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York, SC US
4/26/2025 12:02pm

Mike Rowe on a podcast today said there are 482000 jobs unfilled in the manufacturing sector.  Let that sink in for a minute. 

There are also 100's of thousands of construction job openings . And that number looks to have been increasing every year.   I have a lot of...

There are also 100's of thousands of construction job openings . And that number looks to have been increasing every year.  

 I have a lot of customers that own various construction companies . Landscape construction, environmental clean ups,  site work, Builders, handyman style do it all, Etc. And they all have said its very difficult to get qualified workers. 

I blame the school system for the problem locally. When I was in school they always pushed collage and said that factory jobs and construction were bad options that You should avoid.  So many people my age and younger , high school kids that I've had work for me over the years. Most are stuck on the idea that they need collage to do well. But have no idea what exactly they want to do.  

I have always told them that trade school or getting a job in construction at an entry level in the field they are interested in, is a better option in my opinion. And You can get paid to learn instead of going into debt. and working and going to school at the same time. So far most have gone into working ion construction in some way. And are doing well. One of them wanted to be an engineer and that makes sense for him to go to school for that. He did and now has his own company reboring and pinning  heavy equipment . 

 

There's already a lack of qualified labor. I suspect that there will be a lot of work visa's needed to get the labor to build the new shiny factories. If they ever are built. 

 

I'm not saying I disagree (with the Pro whatever is going on people) with making more stuff in the US, or offering people a way to make a better living. I just think that it is not possible to do in the way they are trying to do it. If that is even what they are trying to do.  

 

Can any of the pro tariff/Trump people explain why a trade deficit is bad, how it actually hurts the US?  I don't think its really a bad thing. the GDP overall of the country seems like it should matter more than what other places buy from  the US. Its not going to help lower taxes or the deficit by having equal trade. If the US consumes a lot more of its own stuff they make instead of exporting it, How will exporting more help? Importing less , but making things more expensive  seems like it would hurt more.

Like you mentioned I started in the motorcycle industry as the shop rat at the very bottom emptying the shop trash cans pushing bikes in and out opening and closing and doing basic oil changes, brakes and tires during my senior year of high school on work study. 

The Parts guys saw for 4 years that I had been wrenching on my own bike splitting cases, doing trans work and having the service dept press my cranks. Out of the blue the service manager called and offered me the job. I know several shop owners that started at the bottom like this in all 3 departments.

I could have gone to one of the MC schools but I somehow I always had the natural ability to look at things and understand how and why they worked since I was a little kid working on my bicycles. My father was a barber that could barely change his own car oil.

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2
4/26/2025 1:04pm

Mike Rowe on a podcast today said there are 482000 jobs unfilled in the manufacturing sector.  Let that sink in for a minute. 

There are also 100's of thousands of construction job openings . And that number looks to have been increasing every year.   I have a lot of...

There are also 100's of thousands of construction job openings . And that number looks to have been increasing every year.  

 I have a lot of customers that own various construction companies . Landscape construction, environmental clean ups,  site work, Builders, handyman style do it all, Etc. And they all have said its very difficult to get qualified workers. 

I blame the school system for the problem locally. When I was in school they always pushed collage and said that factory jobs and construction were bad options that You should avoid.  So many people my age and younger , high school kids that I've had work for me over the years. Most are stuck on the idea that they need collage to do well. But have no idea what exactly they want to do.  

I have always told them that trade school or getting a job in construction at an entry level in the field they are interested in, is a better option in my opinion. And You can get paid to learn instead of going into debt. and working and going to school at the same time. So far most have gone into working ion construction in some way. And are doing well. One of them wanted to be an engineer and that makes sense for him to go to school for that. He did and now has his own company reboring and pinning  heavy equipment . 

 

There's already a lack of qualified labor. I suspect that there will be a lot of work visa's needed to get the labor to build the new shiny factories. If they ever are built. 

 

I'm not saying I disagree (with the Pro whatever is going on people) with making more stuff in the US, or offering people a way to make a better living. I just think that it is not possible to do in the way they are trying to do it. If that is even what they are trying to do.  

 

Can any of the pro tariff/Trump people explain why a trade deficit is bad, how it actually hurts the US?  I don't think its really a bad thing. the GDP overall of the country seems like it should matter more than what other places buy from  the US. Its not going to help lower taxes or the deficit by having equal trade. If the US consumes a lot more of its own stuff they make instead of exporting it, How will exporting more help? Importing less , but making things more expensive  seems like it would hurt more.

lumpy790 wrote:
Like you mentioned I started in the motorcycle industry as the shop rat at the very bottom emptying the shop trash cans pushing bikes in and...

Like you mentioned I started in the motorcycle industry as the shop rat at the very bottom emptying the shop trash cans pushing bikes in and out opening and closing and doing basic oil changes, brakes and tires during my senior year of high school on work study. 

The Parts guys saw for 4 years that I had been wrenching on my own bike splitting cases, doing trans work and having the service dept press my cranks. Out of the blue the service manager called and offered me the job. I know several shop owners that started at the bottom like this in all 3 departments.

I could have gone to one of the MC schools but I somehow I always had the natural ability to look at things and understand how and why they worked since I was a little kid working on my bicycles. My father was a barber that could barely change his own car oil.

I'm pretty sure the owner of FXR started out as a 16-year-old that quit school and went to work at a Honda dealership. Ended up working his way up and buying the dealership before moving onto build FXR.  There is a podcast that's out there. I think it was a Steve Mathes one, with the owner and he talks about all of that.

 

I have a customer who started out working for a roofer and years later became a partner, then now the owner of the company for years.

I started out working for a developer and was doing most of the day-to-day stuff, and he was talking to me about helping his son run the company so he could retire. The kid had some problems at the time, and I did not want to be around heavy equipment with somebody that was high all the time.

 I had a hobby of making graphics at the time and just went for it after I had taken some time off for a surgery. I never went back.  I learned how to do just about everything to take the raw land, clear it, cut the road in, utilities, and building the homes from start to finish, every aspect of that while working for the developer. When I started out, I had only run a skid steer for about 20 minutes while I was at that old boss's house hanging out with his daughter riding dirt bikes. He was looking for a worker and asked a few of us if we wanted to try running the skid steer. I had always wanted to run stuff like that as a kid. So, I jumped at the chance. He noticed that I had a knack for it and 4 years later I was running a 25-ton excavator putting septic systems in and doing all of the sitework mostly myself. Then we did road work and put in some roads from the start before I left. I am VERY thankful I was able to learn all of that stuff. And I made decent money while doing it. Now years later I am thinking about buying myself a small excavator to do some projects around my property and play in, building some trails and a track. 

There are tons of company owners who would love to help teach a young, motivated kid that wants to learn. And pay them while they learn. As a teenager I was able to learn a ton, saved my old boss a ton of money by being able to do a lot and being paid a little less since I was learning on the job. I've always been able to do most things I set my mind on doing. 

2
1
ThatOneMXGuy
Posts
1073
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Location
Somewhere, MO US
4/26/2025 7:32pm

There’s a whole thread about this in non moto. It’s … something. 

1
1
Zacka 161
Posts
1661
Joined
7/30/2009
Location
Mount Waverley, VIC AU
4/26/2025 8:16pm
dcg141 wrote:
No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S...

No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant sell-off, causing yields to rise and bond prices to fall. This was going on while equities were also falling. I've never seen that in decades of investing. Usually during a stock downturn everyone flocks to US treasuries but they were being sold off as fast as stocks were. It showed a really unprecedented lack of confidence in the US as a safe haven for investors. Had it continued....well that's uncharted territory. Absolutely it was triggered by the tariffs. 

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries...

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries as a way to retaliate. It has been very obvious that he did this in a way to cause the most destruction to equities as possible. The government needs lower yields. 

Being in manufacturing, I agree we need to bring back some to the US. The way Trump has went about it is not in our best interest though. Our system has been a ticking time bomb for a long time. People have it in their head that you can’t manufacture here and make profit, but that is simply not true. The best example of this are the Japanese. Japanese autos sold in America are more American than any of the big 3 and they are priced better. Their employees are normally well paid with good benefits as well. You just can’t operate the way a lot of American companies have grown accustomed to. 

Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the best economic decision by using parts, products and services in cheaper places.  

Tariffs are simply American businesses who made good economic choices and punish American consumers who must now pay more — either to buy American made or in a purchase tax to buy overseas made.


Why is anyone supporting the punishing Americans method of governance? Why is anyone supporting a government that rolls back that punishment based entirely on the billionaires that can get a meeting? 

Why not support America becoming a manufacturing powerhouse?


It doesn’t make any sense besides the obvious bad things not worth mentioning over and over to the deaf among us… but more importantly it doesn’t make any GOOD sense to everyday Americans. 

5
3
4/26/2025 8:24pm
dcg141 wrote:
No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S...

No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant sell-off, causing yields to rise and bond prices to fall. This was going on while equities were also falling. I've never seen that in decades of investing. Usually during a stock downturn everyone flocks to US treasuries but they were being sold off as fast as stocks were. It showed a really unprecedented lack of confidence in the US as a safe haven for investors. Had it continued....well that's uncharted territory. Absolutely it was triggered by the tariffs. 

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries...

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries as a way to retaliate. It has been very obvious that he did this in a way to cause the most destruction to equities as possible. The government needs lower yields. 

Being in manufacturing, I agree we need to bring back some to the US. The way Trump has went about it is not in our best interest though. Our system has been a ticking time bomb for a long time. People have it in their head that you can’t manufacture here and make profit, but that is simply not true. The best example of this are the Japanese. Japanese autos sold in America are more American than any of the big 3 and they are priced better. Their employees are normally well paid with good benefits as well. You just can’t operate the way a lot of American companies have grown accustomed to. 

Zacka 161 wrote:
Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the...

Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the best economic decision by using parts, products and services in cheaper places.  

Tariffs are simply American businesses who made good economic choices and punish American consumers who must now pay more — either to buy American made or in a purchase tax to buy overseas made.


Why is anyone supporting the punishing Americans method of governance? Why is anyone supporting a government that rolls back that punishment based entirely on the billionaires that can get a meeting? 

Why not support America becoming a manufacturing powerhouse?


It doesn’t make any sense besides the obvious bad things not worth mentioning over and over to the deaf among us… but more importantly it doesn’t make any GOOD sense to everyday Americans. 

 American becoming a manufacturing powerhouse would require agreement and commitment from both sides of US politics.

US politics is so divided, anything one side puts forward, even if it is for the good of the country, the other side will fight or upend when they have the power.

China has taken advantage of this, they have had long term plans to localize strategic industries.

A country doesn't need to be run by a dictator to achieve this, but both sides of politics do need to work together for the good of the country.

3
ThatOneMXGuy
Posts
1073
Joined
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Location
Somewhere, MO US
4/26/2025 8:34pm
dcg141 wrote:
No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S...

No matter how you feel about tariffs a major red flag went up in the bond market. In the week leading up to April 21, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant sell-off, causing yields to rise and bond prices to fall. This was going on while equities were also falling. I've never seen that in decades of investing. Usually during a stock downturn everyone flocks to US treasuries but they were being sold off as fast as stocks were. It showed a really unprecedented lack of confidence in the US as a safe haven for investors. Had it continued....well that's uncharted territory. Absolutely it was triggered by the tariffs. 

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries...

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries as a way to retaliate. It has been very obvious that he did this in a way to cause the most destruction to equities as possible. The government needs lower yields. 

Being in manufacturing, I agree we need to bring back some to the US. The way Trump has went about it is not in our best interest though. Our system has been a ticking time bomb for a long time. People have it in their head that you can’t manufacture here and make profit, but that is simply not true. The best example of this are the Japanese. Japanese autos sold in America are more American than any of the big 3 and they are priced better. Their employees are normally well paid with good benefits as well. You just can’t operate the way a lot of American companies have grown accustomed to. 

Zacka 161 wrote:
Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the...

Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the best economic decision by using parts, products and services in cheaper places.  

Tariffs are simply American businesses who made good economic choices and punish American consumers who must now pay more — either to buy American made or in a purchase tax to buy overseas made.


Why is anyone supporting the punishing Americans method of governance? Why is anyone supporting a government that rolls back that punishment based entirely on the billionaires that can get a meeting? 

Why not support America becoming a manufacturing powerhouse?


It doesn’t make any sense besides the obvious bad things not worth mentioning over and over to the deaf among us… but more importantly it doesn’t make any GOOD sense to everyday Americans. 

Unskilled manufacturing jobs that created our economic boom for decades post WW2 are never coming back. Anyone who campaigns for it is simply paying lip service for votes to those people who reminisce about that era.

14
5
Zacka 161
Posts
1661
Joined
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Location
Mount Waverley, VIC AU
4/26/2025 10:56pm
It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries...

It didn’t go that way at first. Once it became obvious that trumps real objective was lower yields, China and other countries started dumping our treasuries as a way to retaliate. It has been very obvious that he did this in a way to cause the most destruction to equities as possible. The government needs lower yields. 

Being in manufacturing, I agree we need to bring back some to the US. The way Trump has went about it is not in our best interest though. Our system has been a ticking time bomb for a long time. People have it in their head that you can’t manufacture here and make profit, but that is simply not true. The best example of this are the Japanese. Japanese autos sold in America are more American than any of the big 3 and they are priced better. Their employees are normally well paid with good benefits as well. You just can’t operate the way a lot of American companies have grown accustomed to. 

Zacka 161 wrote:
Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the...

Yeah… why not invest in and build up manufacturing as a government to be a global leader… rather than simply punishing Americans who have made the best economic decision by using parts, products and services in cheaper places.  

Tariffs are simply American businesses who made good economic choices and punish American consumers who must now pay more — either to buy American made or in a purchase tax to buy overseas made.


Why is anyone supporting the punishing Americans method of governance? Why is anyone supporting a government that rolls back that punishment based entirely on the billionaires that can get a meeting? 

Why not support America becoming a manufacturing powerhouse?


It doesn’t make any sense besides the obvious bad things not worth mentioning over and over to the deaf among us… but more importantly it doesn’t make any GOOD sense to everyday Americans. 

Unskilled manufacturing jobs that created our economic boom for decades post WW2 are never coming back. Anyone who campaigns for it is simply paying lip service...

Unskilled manufacturing jobs that created our economic boom for decades post WW2 are never coming back. Anyone who campaigns for it is simply paying lip service for votes to those people who reminisce about that era.

Yeah it’s not… and people blame unions, which is completely true, it’s unions fault.  Unions demanded safe work conditions, good wages, holidays, overtime, not working 14 year olds etc etc etc… and the industrials said fuck that we will do what we want to do to Americans to people in the third world… 


But since Reagan, the right wing dorks have systematically attacked unions, defunded the government, privatized fucking everything and now it’s all in place for Trump to literally take America back to the time of the robber barrons, and 12 years olds working, and dying, in sweatshops…


And right wing dorks cheer him on…

11
11
dcg141
Posts
2312
Joined
11/30/2009
Location
MS US
4/27/2025 6:27pm Edited Date/Time 4/27/2025 6:45pm

10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April 1st. Ships in US ports are down about 10% this week, projected to be 40-50% in the next month. Expect to start seeing empty shelves and layoffs in all forms of transportation and warehousing. Unless there is something I'm not seeing we could see effects within the next 3-4 weeks.

1
4
mtbkris2
Posts
830
Joined
1/17/2024
Location
San Diego, CA US
4/27/2025 6:56pm
dcg141 wrote:
10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April...

10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April 1st. Ships in US ports are down about 10% this week, projected to be 40-50% in the next month. Expect to start seeing empty shelves and layoffs in all forms of transportation and warehousing. Unless there is something I'm not seeing we could see effects within the next 3-4 weeks.

Can you link where you pulled this info? Not saying it’s true or false , just wanna read it myself 

1
4/27/2025 7:20pm Edited Date/Time 4/27/2025 7:24pm
dcg141 wrote:
10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April...

10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April 1st. Ships in US ports are down about 10% this week, projected to be 40-50% in the next month. Expect to start seeing empty shelves and layoffs in all forms of transportation and warehousing. Unless there is something I'm not seeing we could see effects within the next 3-4 weeks.

mtbkris2 wrote:

Can you link where you pulled this info? Not saying it’s true or false , just wanna read it myself 

https://finance.yahoo.com/ enter ZN=F in the quote lookup box...

 

image 1554

 

Yahoo will show the T-note spike April 3, 4 and 7...

 

image 1555
4
burn1986
Posts
12246
Joined
4/16/2010
Location
bossier city, LA US
4/27/2025 7:26pm
Zycki11 wrote:
Anything the United States starts to manufacture over other countries. The goal is self sustainment... Most are just scared because they are familiar with the status...

Anything the United States starts to manufacture over other countries. The goal is self sustainment... Most are just scared because they are familiar with the status quo. 

That’s it. 

2
4/27/2025 8:07pm
dcg141 wrote:
10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April...

10 years bond yields just went vertical.....not good. The 30- 50 day supply chain shortages could start next week. Production in China dropped significantly on April 1st. Ships in US ports are down about 10% this week, projected to be 40-50% in the next month. Expect to start seeing empty shelves and layoffs in all forms of transportation and warehousing. Unless there is something I'm not seeing we could see effects within the next 3-4 weeks.

mtbkris2 wrote:

Can you link where you pulled this info? Not saying it’s true or false , just wanna read it myself 

4
burn1986
Posts
12246
Joined
4/16/2010
Location
bossier city, LA US
4/27/2025 9:42pm Edited Date/Time 4/27/2025 9:42pm

Can you get me a graph on how much per day China is losing by not doing business with the US?

3

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