How does this thing in Iran end?

borg
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Been off the front page on Vital for a while. 

I don't really consider this a "war" as wars generally go. In a war, you usually have an aggressor who seeks to destroy the army of their target and take over the land. Russia/Ukraine, war. Israel/Palestine, war. US/Iraq, war. 

This seems more like using the military to coerce another country into doing what we want them to do. Sanctions are usually the first tactic but history tells us that they never work. This is basically a radical escalation of sanctions as far as I can see.

How do we get out of this now with the ability to say it was worth it? I mean with a straight face.

From what I have been able to find out, the world has been able to avoid the predicted economic meltdown because most countries have been drawing down their strategic oil reserves. When that's gone is when the fit is supposed to hit the shan. A few weeks is what I hear we have left. Maybe less in some places.

 

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plowboy
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I don't think we really know what's going on.  Round and round she goes...where she stops...nobody knows.  

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APLMAN99
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It’s ended about a dozen times already, hasn’t it? 

 

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Kenny Banyan
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It may not end without boots on the ground. 

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borg
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It may not end without boots on the ground. 

As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU. That scenario seems highly unlikely though.  Just getting the Straights open seems like a victory now. It's really the only thing that Iran holds over our heads. Otherwise, they're not really a threat to us.  

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The Shop

soggy
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It may not end without boots on the ground. 

borg wrote:
As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU...

As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU. That scenario seems highly unlikely though.  Just getting the Straights open seems like a victory now. It's really the only thing that Iran holds over our heads. Otherwise, they're not really a threat to us.  

It was open before all this began 🤦🏼

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SEEMEFIRST
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Kargh island seems like a logical place to take over, but man, I wouldn't want to be there.

Who knows how booby trapped it might be, and stuck on an island doesn't seem like a very safe place to be.

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Chance1216
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1 day ago Edited Date/Time 1 day ago
SEEMEFIRST wrote:
Kargh island seems like a logical place to take over, but man, I wouldn't want to be there.Who knows how booby trapped it might be, and...

Kargh island seems like a logical place to take over, but man, I wouldn't want to be there.

Who knows how booby trapped it might be, and stuck on an island doesn't seem like a very safe place to be.

Logistically, there isn’t much cover from drone attacks as well.  

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1 day ago

It may not end without boots on the ground. 

borg wrote:
As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU...

As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU. That scenario seems highly unlikely though.  Just getting the Straights open seems like a victory now. It's really the only thing that Iran holds over our heads. Otherwise, they're not really a threat to us.  

soggy wrote:

It was open before all this began 🤦🏼

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this war is called if not for them. And just may have been able to have had the ceasefire hold if not for them.   Iran wasn't impacting the world on the level they are now, EVER.   

It seems like Israel either needs to be a part of negotiations or  work out a deal with them first so there is less chance they cause any deals between the US and Iran to fail. 

 

  I really hope that there is a way for this to end soon that doesn't involve lots of death.  I hope that the hit list they put out is just them using the same style of negotiations Trump is using. And not a legit strong threat.   

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truck
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Iran agrees to everything, obviously. 

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SEEMEFIRST
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1 day ago
SEEMEFIRST wrote:
Kargh island seems like a logical place to take over, but man, I wouldn't want to be there.Who knows how booby trapped it might be, and...

Kargh island seems like a logical place to take over, but man, I wouldn't want to be there.

Who knows how booby trapped it might be, and stuck on an island doesn't seem like a very safe place to be.

Chance1216 wrote:

Logistically, there isn’t much cover from drone attacks as well.  

Yeah, pretty much sitting ducks.

Makes sense strategically, but plenty scary. 

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JM485
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It ends really easily, we just declare victory and leave.  End of story, just pull out, let Trump take his “victory” lap, and call it a day.  The damage to the region and US credibility has already been done, time to cut our losses rather than drag this out into another 20+ year conflict costing Trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives for no reason.  

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APLMAN99
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borg wrote:
As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU...

As long as Israel ignores any kind of agreement, ground invasion seems like the only way. Pretty sure Israel  caused the problem with the last MOU. That scenario seems highly unlikely though.  Just getting the Straights open seems like a victory now. It's really the only thing that Iran holds over our heads. Otherwise, they're not really a threat to us.  

soggy wrote:

It was open before all this began 🤦🏼

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this...

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this war is called if not for them. And just may have been able to have had the ceasefire hold if not for them.   Iran wasn't impacting the world on the level they are now, EVER.   

It seems like Israel either needs to be a part of negotiations or  work out a deal with them first so there is less chance they cause any deals between the US and Iran to fail. 

 

  I really hope that there is a way for this to end soon that doesn't involve lots of death.  I hope that the hit list they put out is just them using the same style of negotiations Trump is using. And not a legit strong threat.   

The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more Israel” has never been true, but that fact is just a little bit more visible now….

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Kenny Banyan
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1 day ago
soggy wrote:

It was open before all this began 🤦🏼

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this...

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this war is called if not for them. And just may have been able to have had the ceasefire hold if not for them.   Iran wasn't impacting the world on the level they are now, EVER.   

It seems like Israel either needs to be a part of negotiations or  work out a deal with them first so there is less chance they cause any deals between the US and Iran to fail. 

 

  I really hope that there is a way for this to end soon that doesn't involve lots of death.  I hope that the hit list they put out is just them using the same style of negotiations Trump is using. And not a legit strong threat.   

APLMAN99 wrote:
The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more...

The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more Israel” has never been true, but that fact is just a little bit more visible now….

Wrong

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truck
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soggy wrote:

It was open before all this began 🤦🏼

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this...

Its starting to feel more like Israel is the main reason there is not peace in the middle east. We likely wouldn't have  started whatever this war is called if not for them. And just may have been able to have had the ceasefire hold if not for them.   Iran wasn't impacting the world on the level they are now, EVER.   

It seems like Israel either needs to be a part of negotiations or  work out a deal with them first so there is less chance they cause any deals between the US and Iran to fail. 

 

  I really hope that there is a way for this to end soon that doesn't involve lots of death.  I hope that the hit list they put out is just them using the same style of negotiations Trump is using. And not a legit strong threat.   

APLMAN99 wrote:
The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more...

The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more Israel” has never been true, but that fact is just a little bit more visible now….

If Israel wanted to turn the rest of the middle east into rubble they could have done it decades ago. They may not be angels but it's still absurd to do the both sides thing on this one. 

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1 day ago

A giant cluster fuck, i.e., Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan……..

 

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1 day ago
APLMAN99 wrote:
The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more...

The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more Israel” has never been true, but that fact is just a little bit more visible now….

Geo-politics escapes you, my friend. 

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BossWool2800
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1 day ago Edited Date/Time 1 day ago

Trumps talking about taking over parts of Iran, especially that island (Kharg). Pretty sure he’s seeing dollar signs.

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1 day ago
truck wrote:

Iran agrees to everything, obviously. 

That will be on Tuesday, TACO Tuesday.

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APLMAN99
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APLMAN99 wrote:
The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more...

The old cliche about "If Israel's neighbors lay down their weapons, there will be peace. If Israel lays down its weapons, there will be no more Israel” has never been true, but that fact is just a little bit more visible now….

MoogenKen wrote:

Geo-politics escapes you, my friend. 

Probably so. 

But I know that cliche/slogan is far from accurate. 

The slogan implies Israel simply waits to defend itself. In reality, modern Israeli military doctrine has long emphasized striking first when leaders believe a threat is developing (or want to declare a threat is developing). Israel launched the opening attacks in 1956, 1967, 1981, 1982, 2007, numerous operations in Syria, and extensive covert operations against Iran. 

Whether those actions were justified is a separate debate, but the historical record doesn’t support the idea that Israel only uses force defensively.

This current situation points to Israel not really wanting peace, per se, but they want to create a situation where their ‘big brother’ will help them annihilate the folks they want gone this time. 

I’m not anti-Israel. I support their right to exist, even with some reservations about the country’s origins. But the reality is that Israel is not the innocent golden child that we’ve always been told. 

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truck
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You don't think "striking first when leaders believe a threat is developing" is equivalent to striking any chance you can because you want to eliminate a group of people from the face of the earth, do you? 

Even by that standard, the cliche you're rejecting would still be true. If no threat developing, then no aggression. I understand that rationale can be very easily abused but it's still far preferable than where Iran is coming from. 

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APLMAN99
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truck wrote:
You don't think "striking first when leaders believe a threat is developing" is equivalent to striking any chance you can because you want to eliminate a...

You don't think "striking first when leaders believe a threat is developing" is equivalent to striking any chance you can because you want to eliminate a group of people from the face of the earth, do you? 

Even by that standard, the cliche you're rejecting would still be true. If no threat developing, then no aggression. I understand that rationale can be very easily abused but it's still far preferable than where Iran is coming from. 

I think that what Israel claims is not always objectively accurate. 

Putin claims his invasion of Ukraine was preemptive because of a perceived threat. 

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truck
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truck wrote:
You don't think "striking first when leaders believe a threat is developing" is equivalent to striking any chance you can because you want to eliminate a...

You don't think "striking first when leaders believe a threat is developing" is equivalent to striking any chance you can because you want to eliminate a group of people from the face of the earth, do you? 

Even by that standard, the cliche you're rejecting would still be true. If no threat developing, then no aggression. I understand that rationale can be very easily abused but it's still far preferable than where Iran is coming from. 

APLMAN99 wrote:

I think that what Israel claims is not always objectively accurate. 

Putin claims his invasion of Ukraine was preemptive because of a perceived threat. 

Being willfully incorrect or deliberately dishonest when it allows you to do things you wanted to do anyway makes you a normal developed country just like the US and still leaves you on much higher moral ground than constantly obsessing over eliminating an entire group of people. I don't think we disagree on who Israel is, I think we have very different opinions on who Iran is. 

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Dudley
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I chuckled at suggestion to build a canal to bypass straight, but I’m thinking it might be worth looking into. Multi- nation effort. 



 

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1 day ago
Dudley wrote:

I chuckled at suggestion to build a canal to bypass straight, but I’m thinking it might be worth looking into. Multi- nation effort. 



 

It's cheaper to build more pipelines...

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Reese95w
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1 day ago
Dudley wrote:

I chuckled at suggestion to build a canal to bypass straight, but I’m thinking it might be worth looking into. Multi- nation effort. 



 

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plowboy
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1 day ago

News says things are hot again today.

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1 day ago
plowboy wrote:

News says things are hot again today.

It's not Tuesday yet!

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JerryVan
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1 day ago Edited Date/Time 1 day ago

(How) Does this thing in Iran end?

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ns503
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I thought it was already over? Like, weeks ago.

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