Southwick Podium Predictions

450s

1. Lucas Coenen 
2. Hunter Lawrence
3. Jett Lawrence
4. Prado



250s

  1. Sacha Coenen 
  2. Cole Davies
  3. Jo Shimoda 
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mtbkris2
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7/10/2026 4:50pm

I’m no deegan fan but I think this might be his weekend 

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450s

1. Lucas Coenen 
2. Hunter Lawrence
3. Jett Lawrence
4. Prado



250s

  1. Sacha Coenen 
  2. Cole Davies
  3. Jo Shimoda 

I am in this camp as well.

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DonJulio
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7/10/2026 5:02pm
mtbkris2 wrote:

I’m no deegan fan but I think this might be his weekend 

Yall literally say that every weekend lol

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Shred
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mtbkris2 wrote:

I’m no deegan fan but I think this might be his weekend 

…to take 5th.

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The Shop

yardsailor
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7/10/2026 5:07pm Edited Date/Time 7/10/2026 5:10pm

Deegs may get a moto win or 🛒 wheel it trying while running the suggested track boundaries. Will not pass the fast guys to get into lead. 
Jett will be out there with a vengeance and could easily put a beat down on everyone. Could do so coming from a top 10 start. 
Hunter will be fast and consistent top 3 each moto, long game mindset. 
Prado’s demise will be 3 riders mentioned above and the one below but could end up 3rd in a moto. Will not pass any of the top guys to earn a moto win  

Lucas will roll with the top guys and will get a top 5 OA if he stays up and his starts are in the top 10. Could pass any of the top guys. 

Comes down to starts with these 5. 

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kpiper
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7/10/2026 5:08pm

Sacha will crash at least in one moto. Suppose he could still win, but he seems like once he falls, he loses a little pace.

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mtbkris2 wrote:

I’m no deegan fan but I think this might be his weekend 

DonJulio wrote:

Yall literally say that every weekend lol

Yeah but this way he can link a screenshot of himself and say "Told ya, suck it haters", once it happens.

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Spudinki45
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7/10/2026 5:09pm

450 

1. Lucas Coenen

2. Hunter Lawrence

3. Jett Lawrence

250

  1. Sacha Coenen 
  2. Cole Davies
  3. Levi Kitchen

I actually think Levi has a rebound here. He rides pretty good in the sand and tends to podium here.

I also think the lack of power in the HRC 250s are going to kill Jo on the starts this weekend.

At Southwick a bad start usually results in a first turn crash.

In fact, Shimoda has gone down in the first turn 3 years in a row during moto 1.

Hence why his finishes are 6-1, 9-1, 10-2 the past 3 years.

If he can get a start he will be good hence the moto 2 result.

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Nairb#70
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7/10/2026 5:11pm

250

SHIMODA

DAVIES

DEFRANSESCO

450

JETT

COENEN

DEEGAN

 

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RACING
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7/10/2026 5:11pm
mtbkris2 wrote:

I’m no deegan fan but I think this might be his weekend 

DonJulio wrote:

Yall literally say that every weekend lol

Sooooomeday my prince will cooooooome...

 

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yardsailor
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7/10/2026 5:11pm
Spudinki45 wrote:
450 1. Lucas Coenen2. Hunter Lawrence3. Jett Lawrence250Sacha Coenen Cole DaviesLevi KitchenI actually think Levi has a rebound here. He rides pretty good in the sand and tends...

450 

1. Lucas Coenen

2. Hunter Lawrence

3. Jett Lawrence

250

  1. Sacha Coenen 
  2. Cole Davies
  3. Levi Kitchen

I actually think Levi has a rebound here. He rides pretty good in the sand and tends to podium here.

I also think the lack of power in the HRC 250s are going to kill Jo on the starts this weekend.

At Southwick a bad start usually results in a first turn crash.

In fact, Shimoda has gone down in the first turn 3 years in a row during moto 1.

Hence why his finishes are 6-1, 9-1, 10-2 the past 3 years.

If he can get a start he will be good hence the moto 2 result.

Nice job with the research. 🧐 

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jps256
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7/10/2026 5:14pm Edited Date/Time 7/10/2026 5:15pm

Coenen, Jett, Prado.      Jo, Garcia, Minear.

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We obviously all know how Prado looked last year but Southwick he came out and was 3-4 seconds faster than anybody in qualifying. Then in the races he looked like he had everybody covered but Jett, then crashed at the end of both motos. This year on a bike he likes.. I expect his best ride yet.

Lucas
Prado
Hunter
Jett 4th, Deegan 5th

Sacha
Shimoda 
Kitchen
Davies 4th, Dudney 5th
 

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mxbmx
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7/10/2026 5:18pm

Kayden Minnear 3-1 for 1st overall in 250s

P2 Davies. P3 Coenen

Prado 1-2 for 1st overall in 450s

P2 Jett. P3 Hunter 

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SoCalMX70
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7/10/2026 5:27pm
yardsailor wrote:
Deegs may get a moto win or 🛒 wheel it trying while running the suggested track boundaries. Will not pass the fast guys to get into lead. Jett...

Deegs may get a moto win or 🛒 wheel it trying while running the suggested track boundaries. Will not pass the fast guys to get into lead. 
Jett will be out there with a vengeance and could easily put a beat down on everyone. Could do so coming from a top 10 start. 
Hunter will be fast and consistent top 3 each moto, long game mindset. 
Prado’s demise will be 3 riders mentioned above and the one below but could end up 3rd in a moto. Will not pass any of the top guys to earn a moto win  

Lucas will roll with the top guys and will get a top 5 OA if he stays up and his starts are in the top 10. Could pass any of the top guys. 

Comes down to starts with these 5. 

Prado's demise is he can't go 30 minutes.

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mtbkris2
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7/10/2026 5:28pm
mtbkris2 wrote:

I’m no deegan fan but I think this might be his weekend 

DonJulio wrote:

Yall literally say that every weekend lol

Mavetism wrote:

Yeah but this way he can link a screenshot of himself and say "Told ya, suck it haters", once it happens.

lol look at my comment history, I’m actually prob considered a “hater” by most standards. I want Jett to win

kpiper
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7/10/2026 5:42pm
Mavetism wrote:
We obviously all know how Prado looked last year but Southwick he came out and was 3-4 seconds faster than anybody in qualifying. Then in the...

We obviously all know how Prado looked last year but Southwick he came out and was 3-4 seconds faster than anybody in qualifying. Then in the races he looked like he had everybody covered but Jett, then crashed at the end of both motos. This year on a bike he likes.. I expect his best ride yet.

Lucas
Prado
Hunter
Jett 4th, Deegan 5th

Sacha
Shimoda 
Kitchen
Davies 4th, Dudney 5th
 

If Jett gets 4th, he will announce his retirement. 

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Mavetism
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7/10/2026 5:49pm
Mavetism wrote:
We obviously all know how Prado looked last year but Southwick he came out and was 3-4 seconds faster than anybody in qualifying. Then in the...

We obviously all know how Prado looked last year but Southwick he came out and was 3-4 seconds faster than anybody in qualifying. Then in the races he looked like he had everybody covered but Jett, then crashed at the end of both motos. This year on a bike he likes.. I expect his best ride yet.

Lucas
Prado
Hunter
Jett 4th, Deegan 5th

Sacha
Shimoda 
Kitchen
Davies 4th, Dudney 5th
 

kpiper wrote:

If Jett gets 4th, he will announce his retirement. 

Probably goes 1-1 and we all scratch our heads again. 😂

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7/10/2026 5:52pm

Lucas

Hunter

Prado

 

Shimoda

Davies

Coenen

1
7/10/2026 5:54pm

Davies

Kitchen 

Coenen

 

Jett

Prado

Hunter

1
7/10/2026 6:03pm

They added a lot of sand this year, and it’s not getting washed away by a storm like last year. I haven’t seen Lucas ride in the sand, but I can confidently put him 1-1. Prado believes he will be great at this track, and I think he will be considering he was decent last year. 

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yardsailor
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7/10/2026 6:32pm

Just watching videos of todays press day. I see exactly what people say about the track having a hard base under it. Looks like 3-4 inches of sand and then the base. 
I have more depth of sand on my kitchen floor.  Looks likes a slippery track with the need of incredible throttle control and balance to ride outside the main line.  

I think of Grantsburg, WI as a deep sand track that gets whooped out all the way around as how Southwick would be.  

Should be fun regardless.  

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7/10/2026 6:35pm

Hunter, Prado, Lucas, Jett, maybe a surprise 5th-7th ish finish for Tomac.  Deegan also 4th to 7th overall. This will be an Euro/Australia exhibition race. Even if one of the expected winners has bike issues or really bad start it will be hard for Deegan, Tomac, Barcia, Webb to work their way to the front and stay there. 

Sacha, Davies, Kitchen, Shimoda 

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7/10/2026 6:35pm
They added a lot of sand this year, and it’s not getting washed away by a storm like last year. I haven’t seen Lucas ride in...

They added a lot of sand this year, and it’s not getting washed away by a storm like last year. I haven’t seen Lucas ride in the sand, but I can confidently put him 1-1. Prado believes he will be great at this track, and I think he will be considering he was decent last year. 

You wouldn't notice they added sand, based on the press day footage. 

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uncledaddy69
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7/10/2026 6:40pm

450: Lucas, Jett, Hunter

250: Sacha, Jo, Levi

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yardsailor
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7/10/2026 6:48pm
Hunter, Prado, Lucas, Jett, maybe a surprise 5th-7th ish finish for Tomac.  Deegan also 4th to 7th overall. This will be an Euro/Australia exhibition race. Even...

Hunter, Prado, Lucas, Jett, maybe a surprise 5th-7th ish finish for Tomac.  Deegan also 4th to 7th overall. This will be an Euro/Australia exhibition race. Even if one of the expected winners has bike issues or really bad start it will be hard for Deegan, Tomac, Barcia, Webb to work their way to the front and stay there. 

Sacha, Davies, Kitchen, Shimoda 

I didnt know Tomac was back riding again.  🧐

7/10/2026 6:49pm
Hunter, Prado, Lucas, Jett, maybe a surprise 5th-7th ish finish for Tomac.  Deegan also 4th to 7th overall. This will be an Euro/Australia exhibition race. Even...

Hunter, Prado, Lucas, Jett, maybe a surprise 5th-7th ish finish for Tomac.  Deegan also 4th to 7th overall. This will be an Euro/Australia exhibition race. Even if one of the expected winners has bike issues or really bad start it will be hard for Deegan, Tomac, Barcia, Webb to work their way to the front and stay there. 

Sacha, Davies, Kitchen, Shimoda 

yardsailor wrote:

I didnt know Tomac was back riding again.  🧐

He's on the entry list at least

yardsailor
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7/10/2026 6:55pm

He's on the entry list at least

I think some teams add their riders to every event before the season begins. 
Could be wrong though. 

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Brad460
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7/10/2026 6:57pm

Prado to fade is the only sure prediction..

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