Alright folks, we already know the champions in the 250E and W. It's all about the 450s now, and what a barnburner it's been. Ken Roczen holds a slim lead over Hunter Lawrence, with a still-in-the-hunt Cooper Webb in tow. Here are the possible scenarios:
Ken Vs. Hunter: Simply put, each of these guys needs to beat the other. Both riders are capable of winning and both should land on the podium. Neither can expect the other to not be right there in the fight. Roczen's 4-point lead gives him a small cushion in the sense that he can take 2nd and still retain the points lead regardless of Hunter's finish. Still, I'd watch for the #94 to ride hard and try to extend his lead.
Lawrence is in a must-win situation if he wants to control his destiny going into the final. Should he fail, he risks going down another 3 points to Roczen if he wins, which would allow Kenny to cruise to a 3rd or better at SLC and clinch the championship. If someone else wins in Denver, these guys must beat one another to make it a close, fair fight at the end.
Cooper Vs. both: Cooper Webb has stated he needs to ride like the "old Coop." This harkens back to the days when a late-surging Webb could steal a win from the jaws of defeat on the last lap, or even the last turn! He even alluded to the fact that he should have been able to beat Roczen late last weekend like has so many times before. What does he need to do? WIN. Just win, baby. He'll need a lot of help from the other two guys, but he is still mathematically in the hunt. Should Webb go 1-1 in the remaining rounds, and Lawrence and Roczen score only 29 and 25 points respectively, Webb will be the champ.
A returning Eli Tomac and supposedly happier Chase Sexton may throw wrenches into the mix for these guys this weekend. Let's go racing, baby!
The best is, when it's this close in points at the end of the season, nobody's riding in "safe" mode, they are going for it!
It's good to be a fan this year! Go KR!
TM
So what you're saying is that the dude with the most points after round 17 will be the champion?
Show us the math if Jett lines up for SLC.
Let’s go Kenny!!!
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You're a little off on the SLC scenario. If Roczen wins Denver and Hunter gets 2nd, Roczen just has to get 5th (actually 4th…thanks msp332 for catching that) or better at SLC to get the championship since he holds the tie breaker. If Roczen wins and Hunter doesn't get 2nd then it just gets easier for Roczen in SLC. I think 4th is already pretty much a given for him unless disaster strikes.
If Hunter wants any chance at the championship he pretty much has to win this weekend in Denver. Or at the very least beat Roczen and have a couple of guys in between them. Hunter can't fall 7 points behind with Roczen holding the tie breaker.
Tomac is eliminated from the championship with 255 points. He could win the next two and would still be behind Roczen and Lawrence even if they don't line up.
Webb is essentially eliminated as he would need BOTH Roczen and Lawrence to DNF or finish wayyy back and win both rounds. Not gonna happen.
I think nobody is really talking about the points scenario becuase it is just between two guys and basically just need to beat each other. Not really a crazy scenario.
Sounds like 1992...
Poor Damon Bradshaw
Webb has to take out hunter at one round and Kenny at the other.... doubt that will happen... but... if the cringe lord was in the same position, it would get done without a blink of the eye.... how bad does webb want #4??? Contact and take outs are 100 percent part of this game.. he'd piss off a lot of people... but he'd have the most epic comeback in this sport's his story if he did...
If CW takes out KR there will be mayhem and riots.
Both off.
If Ken wins Denver and Hunter gets 2nd, then Ken would win the title with 4th or better in SLC.
1st (25 points) - 4th (18 points) = 7 points, which would tie on points with Ken winning 6 rounds to Hunter's 5.
I was a mathlete.
So you’re saying there’s a chance….
You’re correct. I forgot there was a 2 point difference between 3rd-4th. In the situation where Ken wins Denver and Hunter gets second he would be 7 points down. That would give Ken 6 wins to Hunter’s 4 wins. Ken just needs to tie Hunter since he holds the tiebreaker. So you’re right it is 4th or better in SLC if Ken wins Denver.
msp332 is right; I had displaced one digit and thought 4th in SLC would put Roczen down one point.
He would have to injure them or break their bikes. Just putting them on the ground and they finish 10th won't do it unless he gets both of them in both races.
Groundbreaking stuff here
Then you have to figure in loss of championship points for said conduct. Deegan’s antics at Vegas last year got that ruled changed for the better.
While winning would help Hunta, he doesn't "have" to win. He needs a couple of riders between him and Ken where ever they finish. Winning in always the goal, but gaining points is the bigger goal with two races left. But with as good as Ken has been riding, winning might be Hunta's only option to gain points.
What if Ken stalls his bike on the gate like Villo did when he went to MXGP
Pit Row
He already stalled it on the gate this year, then kicked it with 3 seconds left and pulled a holeshot. Heat race though, but still pretty cool
Correct. Kenny would need to go 9-10 or worse in BOTH remaining races and Hunter would need to go 6-7 or worse for Cooper to win it all. He would need to win both Supercrosses himself.
*Checking my math here... I think I'm right... 9th+10th is 13+12 points =25, and 6th+7th is 15+14 points = 29.
Now it simply comes down to who finishes ahead of the other.
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