What Direction is the 450 Class Going to Take in 2026 SX?

Boomslang wrote:

Noob?

SoCalMX70 wrote:

If you're going for an "article" type format, lose the indents. Your paragraphs are already spaced as it is and this is a digital format, often...

If you're going for an "article" type format, lose the indents. Your paragraphs are already spaced as it is and this is a digital format, often read on small screens. You do make some solid points, which I'm sure are all being discussed (ad nauseum) by the usual media outlets.

If you're looking for "attention", whether for fun or as a potential career path, consider short videos (shorts/reels). For something Like this, I'd rapid fire a couple points on each rider and ask the viewer for their opinion. It absolutely pains me to say this, but most folks these days "don't got time for that shit" when they are staring at a wall of text or see that a video is 10+ minutes long. So, sure keep writing longer pieces for your own sanity, but you need to supplement with short attention grabbing content.

Anyway, STFU NOOB.

Top of The Moto wrote:

I mean yeah i’m going to school so i can do this, Im posting these because they’re just in my computer and i want at least...

I mean yeah i’m going to school so i can do this, Im posting these because they’re just in my computer and i want at least people to see it. I understand they are very long but in the specific like of work I want it’s likely to be necessary. Obviously i’m sending these to people who matter in the industry but I also wish to see what people on the outside think. Apologies that nobody likes it though. I probably will continue to post stuff like that just for me.

SoCalMX70 wrote:

If you're going for an "article" type format, lose the indents. Your paragraphs are already spaced as it is and this is a digital format, often...

If you're going for an "article" type format, lose the indents. Your paragraphs are already spaced as it is and this is a digital format, often read on small screens. You do make some solid points, which I'm sure are all being discussed (ad nauseum) by the usual media outlets.

If you're looking for "attention", whether for fun or as a potential career path, consider short videos (shorts/reels). For something Like this, I'd rapid fire a couple points on each rider and ask the viewer for their opinion. It absolutely pains me to say this, but most folks these days "don't got time for that shit" when they are staring at a wall of text or see that a video is 10+ minutes long. So, sure keep writing longer pieces for your own sanity, but you need to supplement with short attention grabbing content.

Anyway, STFU NOOB.

Top of The Moto wrote:

I mean yeah i’m going to school so i can do this, Im posting these because they’re just in my computer and i want at least...

I mean yeah i’m going to school so i can do this, Im posting these because they’re just in my computer and i want at least people to see it. I understand they are very long but in the specific like of work I want it’s likely to be necessary. Obviously i’m sending these to people who matter in the industry but I also wish to see what people on the outside think. Apologies that nobody likes it though. I probably will continue to post stuff like that just for me.

JazzyJJ wrote:

You think I’m reading all of that?

Top of The Moto wrote:

Sean Martinez12/31/25                 What Direction Will the 450 Class Take in the 2026 Supercross Season?               With the recent news...

Sean Martinez

12/31/25

 

               What Direction Will the 450 Class Take in the 2026 Supercross Season?

 

              With the recent news of the Supercross title favorite, Jett Lawrence, after having surgery in virtue of fracturing his Talus and Navicular bones in his right ankle/foot, it has opened up a whole world of opportunities for the rest of the championship hopefuls having Lawrence being on the injury list for the rest of the season. I have a few thoughts I would like to share leading up to the new anticipation that has been born with the new circumstances of this championship.

 

              I would like to divide riders into categories, for starters, I think there are 4 championship hopefuls this season (given they are all healthy throughout the course of the season); Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb, and Ken Roczen are the 4 main players who I think have a genuine shot at this championship. Riders like Jason Anderson, Hunter Lawrence, Justin Cooper, RJ Hampshire, and Malcom Stewart are riders who can definitely be top 5 players but in my eyes would be a stretch if any of them made any sort of a championship run.

 

              I think it would make sense to start this conversation with the likes of Cooper Webb, the 2025 Supercross Champion. To be honest, I do not think it would be crazy if he ended up defending his title. There are plenty of whispers saying his previous title defense attempts were complete failures, but I also think people forget that there has not been a successful title defense since Ryan Dungey in 2017. No body in the current field has ever defended a Supercross title. The only one who has defended any form of a championship in the 450 class is Eli Tomac in 2018 and 19. So I think that that argument is silly. When it comes to a full complete 17 round championship, there is almost no better competitor than Cooper Webb. He is always getting sneaky good results and he has beaten all of his competitors in championships before. He beat Eli Tomac in 2019, Ken Roczen in 2021, and Chase Sexton just last year in 2025. He knows how to beat these guys which is why he is such a danger to be reckoned with. We know he has been vocal about how hard it would be to face Jett as he has yet to beat him in a championship bout, but now that he is out of the equation, that is no longer of concern for the 3 time Supercross Champ. While he does has to adjust to the new chassis on the 2026 Yamaha, I think if he does not like it he could easily just apply the 2025 settings for a more familiar championship-proven feel. I don’t think that he will get the most wins, or have the most laps led, but rather if he has the most top 5’s or podiums, I think that could build up enough of a resume for him to clinch a 4th Supercross Title, of course on the dependability of several variables going his way, but what is a championship without a little bit of luck. I think a crucial part of his title defense journey is the early stages of the championship. We know he will be strong in the east coast and closing stages of the championship, but if he could stay near the podium for the first 5 or 6 races, he will be in serious business with a healthy amount of points leading into Daytona and entering the battle field of the second half of the championship. In summary, Coop knows how to get it done, and he will be a threat no what.

 

              Next would be appropriate to talk about Chase Sexton, upon his Kawasaki arrival has apparently been good news coming from the Japanese branded tent, which is a foreign situation to him compared to his time at KTM. While with KTM, he never really opened up about liking the bike he was riding, on the contrary, he has already been vocal about liking his bike, with the exception of the weight being a little more heavy than what he is used to, which is something I am sure they will try to find a work around for. Given these circumstances, there is still a big question mark around him and it is hard to know how he will truly be with how little we have seen him on the bike. A new team is usually a big adjustment for anybody especially for Sexton. He has a lot of pressure now that Jett is gone in my opinion, he is supposed to be the guy to put a fight up to Jett, and he has a lot of  pressure to make it work with the Factory Kawasaki given that this is his 3rd team in the last 4 years. To be honest, I think he will top the list of main event wins with his unreal speed, but I also think that his inconsistencies could cost like him like it has in previous years. I think I would consider him the title favorite just edging Cooper Webb, but by no means will it be easy for him to win this championship.

 

              Eli Tomac has stirred up a lot of conversation with his move to the Austrian-branded Red Bull KTM machine. I would say I am 70/30 on Tomac’s success in favor of him having a successful season. While he has not been on a KTM since his amateur days prior to signing with the factory team, it honestly seems that they are making huge efforts to make the bike to Eli’s satisfaction. Even small things like the implementation of Eli’s preferred cable clutch rather than the program’s traditional hydraulic clutch just makes it seem like they want the most out of their rider and that to me from the outside makes it seem like a lot of progress will be made throughout the season if it has not already been made. I think Eli will come out of this season a multi-time winner and a frequent flyer on the podium. Now without Jett in the picture, I think this is Eli Tomac’s final genuine chance at this championship. I think most would agree when I say he will most likely have a couple of off rounds, especially in the harder packed tracks, but Eli Tomac has shown signs of Chase’s speed before and has beaten Chase before. If he can compete with Chase speed wise for most of the series, I think he too could have a really solid chance of coming out on top for this season. Honestly though, even if he does not win this championship, it would not really change anything for him. He already the legacy to back up his legendary and iconic career, he has already established himself as one of the greatest racers to throw his leg over a dirt bike, and I think that we should just be grateful that we even get to experience his greatness even still 12 years after being a main player of the 450 class.

 

              Of the championship contenders, Ken Roczen will be the guy to close this list off in my opinion. On paper, this is the best I think he has looked coming into a championship, he is running a familiar setup, unlike the rest of the contenders, and it is a setup that he has proven that he can win and contend week in and week out on. Kenny, contrary to Cooper Webb, is always coming in guns blazing into the championship, always grabbing solid results and being in the thick of the points race early on. It is always the latter stages of the championship that seem to be his Achilles Heel. Last season was probably his best go at a championship run that we have seen while at Suzuki. If you cross out the Tampa DNF from last season, he was within striking distance of both Sexton and Webb in the points. Now with an unfortunate injury he suffered later on, he was unable to make it a 3-way battle until the end. I think his situation will be similar this year, only improved. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with the points lead by round 5 or 6, it just really matters what he does after that stage of the championship. He is the most talented I think of this group, and he has the speed to win, we just need to see him connect the dots for the full 17 rounds which we have yet to see him do, but given he is healthy I think he can easily fight for this championship. I do not like making any statements based off of off-season performances, but all I will say is that I really liked what I saw from Kenny during WSX.

 

              Now it is time to shortly talk about the next group. Firstly, Hunter Lawrence, I think people that end up reading this will be upset at this decision because many people think he will definitely be in the top 3 fighting for this title, but I just do not see it. If it were an outdoor championship or SMX, I am easily putting him top 2 no questions asked, but this is supercross, we have not seen anything special from Hunter yet in Supercross. Out of 20 starts, he only has managed to get 1 podium, underwhelming, however I am not saying that the same trend will continue this year, in fact I think he will 1 maybe 2 races this year. This is a big season for Hunter; I think that for him this is going to be a year where he transitions from a top 5-7 guy into a guy who will contend for Supercross championships in future seasons starting with 2027 Supercross. I just simply do not think that he is ready to contend yet, I haven’t seen enough to where I am like, “You know what, that guy is really going to fight for it this year.” 

 

              Next up, Justin Cooper. While it has been awesome tracking the progress of Justin Cooper, I just do not think he is strong enough to compete for this title. I think he could win, but I will not be surprised if he does not. He has great starts and he displays really bright moments in his riding, but I think as of right now he has slightly plateaued in his progress. I think this season for him needs to be a way to start progressing again and really establish him self with the top guys. Not a ton much else to say about Jcoop other than he just needs to find a way to take that next step in his career.

 

              Now for Jason Anderson, riding with the Factory Suzuki squad. I like this move for El Hombre, I think he will be like he was at Kawi. I think Anderson can get a win this year, and if he does manage to do so, I think it will be in the early rounds of the championship, where he is typically strong. I don’t think he has what it takes to be a top player anymore, I think his time has passed to be in that conversation, but I think he can show little sparks of what he used to be earlier on in his career so I do hope we see some of that early on in the championship by possibly grabbing himself a win.

 

              Malcom Stewart, the Rockstar Husqvarna rider, who got himself possibly one of the most memorable main event wins in the history of the sport. I think it is unlikely that Malcom will grab a win this year but I definitely do think that it is possible. I do think most people hope for him to do well, with his highly appreciated personality and relationship with the fans, and personally for me, I love his exaggerated riding style. Hopefully solid results are in the works for Malcom Stewart.

 

              Lastly, I want to talk about both RJ Hampshire and Jorge Prado. I do not think either of them will be fighting for main event wins, but I think this season for both of them should be a stepping stone for future seasons, similar to Hunter Lawrence and Justin Cooper, just not at winning levels. This is an important season for Jorge Prado especially because of his fallout with Kawasaki and how public and vocal he was about not liking the bike and having a bad relationship inside the tent.  He is back on a familiar bike, so there is less room for excuses if he doesn’t perform up to standard.  I think a good goal for him would be to get 5-7 top 5 main event finishes. I think for outdoors the expectations for Prado will definitely be higher, but for Supercross I think this would be a solid goal to set for a rebound season like this. 

 

              Well there is my 2 cents on the pre-Anaheim conversations about the championship contenders, and also the B-tier list of riders who have winning potential. Although it is sad to see Jett Lawrence absent for this season, it has definitely in a way brought in more hype to the championship, because it is now significantly harder to say who is to take it all once it is all said and done. I have said this on social media, in a way this is reminiscent of the 2011 Supercross season. 4 guys who all have a genuine shot at the championship, and a clash of different eras fighting for that elusive championship. Let’s hope that these next few months provide us with as much excitement as that season did or perhaps somehow even more.

Top of The Moto wrote:

Sean Martinez12/31/25                 What Direction Will the 450 Class Take in the 2026 Supercross Season?               With the recent news...

Sean Martinez

12/31/25

 

               What Direction Will the 450 Class Take in the 2026 Supercross Season?

 

              With the recent news of the Supercross title favorite, Jett Lawrence, after having surgery in virtue of fracturing his Talus and Navicular bones in his right ankle/foot, it has opened up a whole world of opportunities for the rest of the championship hopefuls having Lawrence being on the injury list for the rest of the season. I have a few thoughts I would like to share leading up to the new anticipation that has been born with the new circumstances of this championship.

 

              I would like to divide riders into categories, for starters, I think there are 4 championship hopefuls this season (given they are all healthy throughout the course of the season); Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb, and Ken Roczen are the 4 main players who I think have a genuine shot at this championship. Riders like Jason Anderson, Hunter Lawrence, Justin Cooper, RJ Hampshire, and Malcom Stewart are riders who can definitely be top 5 players but in my eyes would be a stretch if any of them made any sort of a championship run.

 

              I think it would make sense to start this conversation with the likes of Cooper Webb, the 2025 Supercross Champion. To be honest, I do not think it would be crazy if he ended up defending his title. There are plenty of whispers saying his previous title defense attempts were complete failures, but I also think people forget that there has not been a successful title defense since Ryan Dungey in 2017. No body in the current field has ever defended a Supercross title. The only one who has defended any form of a championship in the 450 class is Eli Tomac in 2018 and 19. So I think that that argument is silly. When it comes to a full complete 17 round championship, there is almost no better competitor than Cooper Webb. He is always getting sneaky good results and he has beaten all of his competitors in championships before. He beat Eli Tomac in 2019, Ken Roczen in 2021, and Chase Sexton just last year in 2025. He knows how to beat these guys which is why he is such a danger to be reckoned with. We know he has been vocal about how hard it would be to face Jett as he has yet to beat him in a championship bout, but now that he is out of the equation, that is no longer of concern for the 3 time Supercross Champ. While he does has to adjust to the new chassis on the 2026 Yamaha, I think if he does not like it he could easily just apply the 2025 settings for a more familiar championship-proven feel. I don’t think that he will get the most wins, or have the most laps led, but rather if he has the most top 5’s or podiums, I think that could build up enough of a resume for him to clinch a 4th Supercross Title, of course on the dependability of several variables going his way, but what is a championship without a little bit of luck. I think a crucial part of his title defense journey is the early stages of the championship. We know he will be strong in the east coast and closing stages of the championship, but if he could stay near the podium for the first 5 or 6 races, he will be in serious business with a healthy amount of points leading into Daytona and entering the battle field of the second half of the championship. In summary, Coop knows how to get it done, and he will be a threat no what.

 

              Next would be appropriate to talk about Chase Sexton, upon his Kawasaki arrival has apparently been good news coming from the Japanese branded tent, which is a foreign situation to him compared to his time at KTM. While with KTM, he never really opened up about liking the bike he was riding, on the contrary, he has already been vocal about liking his bike, with the exception of the weight being a little more heavy than what he is used to, which is something I am sure they will try to find a work around for. Given these circumstances, there is still a big question mark around him and it is hard to know how he will truly be with how little we have seen him on the bike. A new team is usually a big adjustment for anybody especially for Sexton. He has a lot of pressure now that Jett is gone in my opinion, he is supposed to be the guy to put a fight up to Jett, and he has a lot of  pressure to make it work with the Factory Kawasaki given that this is his 3rd team in the last 4 years. To be honest, I think he will top the list of main event wins with his unreal speed, but I also think that his inconsistencies could cost like him like it has in previous years. I think I would consider him the title favorite just edging Cooper Webb, but by no means will it be easy for him to win this championship.

 

              Eli Tomac has stirred up a lot of conversation with his move to the Austrian-branded Red Bull KTM machine. I would say I am 70/30 on Tomac’s success in favor of him having a successful season. While he has not been on a KTM since his amateur days prior to signing with the factory team, it honestly seems that they are making huge efforts to make the bike to Eli’s satisfaction. Even small things like the implementation of Eli’s preferred cable clutch rather than the program’s traditional hydraulic clutch just makes it seem like they want the most out of their rider and that to me from the outside makes it seem like a lot of progress will be made throughout the season if it has not already been made. I think Eli will come out of this season a multi-time winner and a frequent flyer on the podium. Now without Jett in the picture, I think this is Eli Tomac’s final genuine chance at this championship. I think most would agree when I say he will most likely have a couple of off rounds, especially in the harder packed tracks, but Eli Tomac has shown signs of Chase’s speed before and has beaten Chase before. If he can compete with Chase speed wise for most of the series, I think he too could have a really solid chance of coming out on top for this season. Honestly though, even if he does not win this championship, it would not really change anything for him. He already the legacy to back up his legendary and iconic career, he has already established himself as one of the greatest racers to throw his leg over a dirt bike, and I think that we should just be grateful that we even get to experience his greatness even still 12 years after being a main player of the 450 class.

 

              Of the championship contenders, Ken Roczen will be the guy to close this list off in my opinion. On paper, this is the best I think he has looked coming into a championship, he is running a familiar setup, unlike the rest of the contenders, and it is a setup that he has proven that he can win and contend week in and week out on. Kenny, contrary to Cooper Webb, is always coming in guns blazing into the championship, always grabbing solid results and being in the thick of the points race early on. It is always the latter stages of the championship that seem to be his Achilles Heel. Last season was probably his best go at a championship run that we have seen while at Suzuki. If you cross out the Tampa DNF from last season, he was within striking distance of both Sexton and Webb in the points. Now with an unfortunate injury he suffered later on, he was unable to make it a 3-way battle until the end. I think his situation will be similar this year, only improved. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with the points lead by round 5 or 6, it just really matters what he does after that stage of the championship. He is the most talented I think of this group, and he has the speed to win, we just need to see him connect the dots for the full 17 rounds which we have yet to see him do, but given he is healthy I think he can easily fight for this championship. I do not like making any statements based off of off-season performances, but all I will say is that I really liked what I saw from Kenny during WSX.

 

              Now it is time to shortly talk about the next group. Firstly, Hunter Lawrence, I think people that end up reading this will be upset at this decision because many people think he will definitely be in the top 3 fighting for this title, but I just do not see it. If it were an outdoor championship or SMX, I am easily putting him top 2 no questions asked, but this is supercross, we have not seen anything special from Hunter yet in Supercross. Out of 20 starts, he only has managed to get 1 podium, underwhelming, however I am not saying that the same trend will continue this year, in fact I think he will 1 maybe 2 races this year. This is a big season for Hunter; I think that for him this is going to be a year where he transitions from a top 5-7 guy into a guy who will contend for Supercross championships in future seasons starting with 2027 Supercross. I just simply do not think that he is ready to contend yet, I haven’t seen enough to where I am like, “You know what, that guy is really going to fight for it this year.” 

 

              Next up, Justin Cooper. While it has been awesome tracking the progress of Justin Cooper, I just do not think he is strong enough to compete for this title. I think he could win, but I will not be surprised if he does not. He has great starts and he displays really bright moments in his riding, but I think as of right now he has slightly plateaued in his progress. I think this season for him needs to be a way to start progressing again and really establish him self with the top guys. Not a ton much else to say about Jcoop other than he just needs to find a way to take that next step in his career.

 

              Now for Jason Anderson, riding with the Factory Suzuki squad. I like this move for El Hombre, I think he will be like he was at Kawi. I think Anderson can get a win this year, and if he does manage to do so, I think it will be in the early rounds of the championship, where he is typically strong. I don’t think he has what it takes to be a top player anymore, I think his time has passed to be in that conversation, but I think he can show little sparks of what he used to be earlier on in his career so I do hope we see some of that early on in the championship by possibly grabbing himself a win.

 

              Malcom Stewart, the Rockstar Husqvarna rider, who got himself possibly one of the most memorable main event wins in the history of the sport. I think it is unlikely that Malcom will grab a win this year but I definitely do think that it is possible. I do think most people hope for him to do well, with his highly appreciated personality and relationship with the fans, and personally for me, I love his exaggerated riding style. Hopefully solid results are in the works for Malcom Stewart.

 

              Lastly, I want to talk about both RJ Hampshire and Jorge Prado. I do not think either of them will be fighting for main event wins, but I think this season for both of them should be a stepping stone for future seasons, similar to Hunter Lawrence and Justin Cooper, just not at winning levels. This is an important season for Jorge Prado especially because of his fallout with Kawasaki and how public and vocal he was about not liking the bike and having a bad relationship inside the tent.  He is back on a familiar bike, so there is less room for excuses if he doesn’t perform up to standard.  I think a good goal for him would be to get 5-7 top 5 main event finishes. I think for outdoors the expectations for Prado will definitely be higher, but for Supercross I think this would be a solid goal to set for a rebound season like this. 

 

              Well there is my 2 cents on the pre-Anaheim conversations about the championship contenders, and also the B-tier list of riders who have winning potential. Although it is sad to see Jett Lawrence absent for this season, it has definitely in a way brought in more hype to the championship, because it is now significantly harder to say who is to take it all once it is all said and done. I have said this on social media, in a way this is reminiscent of the 2011 Supercross season. 4 guys who all have a genuine shot at the championship, and a clash of different eras fighting for that elusive championship. Let’s hope that these next few months provide us with as much excitement as that season did or perhaps somehow even more.

Top of The Moto wrote:

Sean Martinez12/31/25                 What Direction Will the 450 Class Take in the 2026 Supercross Season?               With the recent news...

Sean Martinez

12/31/25

 

               What Direction Will the 450 Class Take in the 2026 Supercross Season?

 

              With the recent news of the Supercross title favorite, Jett Lawrence, after having surgery in virtue of fracturing his Talus and Navicular bones in his right ankle/foot, it has opened up a whole world of opportunities for the rest of the championship hopefuls having Lawrence being on the injury list for the rest of the season. I have a few thoughts I would like to share leading up to the new anticipation that has been born with the new circumstances of this championship.

 

              I would like to divide riders into categories, for starters, I think there are 4 championship hopefuls this season (given they are all healthy throughout the course of the season); Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb, and Ken Roczen are the 4 main players who I think have a genuine shot at this championship. Riders like Jason Anderson, Hunter Lawrence, Justin Cooper, RJ Hampshire, and Malcom Stewart are riders who can definitely be top 5 players but in my eyes would be a stretch if any of them made any sort of a championship run.

 

              I think it would make sense to start this conversation with the likes of Cooper Webb, the 2025 Supercross Champion. To be honest, I do not think it would be crazy if he ended up defending his title. There are plenty of whispers saying his previous title defense attempts were complete failures, but I also think people forget that there has not been a successful title defense since Ryan Dungey in 2017. No body in the current field has ever defended a Supercross title. The only one who has defended any form of a championship in the 450 class is Eli Tomac in 2018 and 19. So I think that that argument is silly. When it comes to a full complete 17 round championship, there is almost no better competitor than Cooper Webb. He is always getting sneaky good results and he has beaten all of his competitors in championships before. He beat Eli Tomac in 2019, Ken Roczen in 2021, and Chase Sexton just last year in 2025. He knows how to beat these guys which is why he is such a danger to be reckoned with. We know he has been vocal about how hard it would be to face Jett as he has yet to beat him in a championship bout, but now that he is out of the equation, that is no longer of concern for the 3 time Supercross Champ. While he does has to adjust to the new chassis on the 2026 Yamaha, I think if he does not like it he could easily just apply the 2025 settings for a more familiar championship-proven feel. I don’t think that he will get the most wins, or have the most laps led, but rather if he has the most top 5’s or podiums, I think that could build up enough of a resume for him to clinch a 4th Supercross Title, of course on the dependability of several variables going his way, but what is a championship without a little bit of luck. I think a crucial part of his title defense journey is the early stages of the championship. We know he will be strong in the east coast and closing stages of the championship, but if he could stay near the podium for the first 5 or 6 races, he will be in serious business with a healthy amount of points leading into Daytona and entering the battle field of the second half of the championship. In summary, Coop knows how to get it done, and he will be a threat no what.

 

              Next would be appropriate to talk about Chase Sexton, upon his Kawasaki arrival has apparently been good news coming from the Japanese branded tent, which is a foreign situation to him compared to his time at KTM. While with KTM, he never really opened up about liking the bike he was riding, on the contrary, he has already been vocal about liking his bike, with the exception of the weight being a little more heavy than what he is used to, which is something I am sure they will try to find a work around for. Given these circumstances, there is still a big question mark around him and it is hard to know how he will truly be with how little we have seen him on the bike. A new team is usually a big adjustment for anybody especially for Sexton. He has a lot of pressure now that Jett is gone in my opinion, he is supposed to be the guy to put a fight up to Jett, and he has a lot of  pressure to make it work with the Factory Kawasaki given that this is his 3rd team in the last 4 years. To be honest, I think he will top the list of main event wins with his unreal speed, but I also think that his inconsistencies could cost like him like it has in previous years. I think I would consider him the title favorite just edging Cooper Webb, but by no means will it be easy for him to win this championship.

 

              Eli Tomac has stirred up a lot of conversation with his move to the Austrian-branded Red Bull KTM machine. I would say I am 70/30 on Tomac’s success in favor of him having a successful season. While he has not been on a KTM since his amateur days prior to signing with the factory team, it honestly seems that they are making huge efforts to make the bike to Eli’s satisfaction. Even small things like the implementation of Eli’s preferred cable clutch rather than the program’s traditional hydraulic clutch just makes it seem like they want the most out of their rider and that to me from the outside makes it seem like a lot of progress will be made throughout the season if it has not already been made. I think Eli will come out of this season a multi-time winner and a frequent flyer on the podium. Now without Jett in the picture, I think this is Eli Tomac’s final genuine chance at this championship. I think most would agree when I say he will most likely have a couple of off rounds, especially in the harder packed tracks, but Eli Tomac has shown signs of Chase’s speed before and has beaten Chase before. If he can compete with Chase speed wise for most of the series, I think he too could have a really solid chance of coming out on top for this season. Honestly though, even if he does not win this championship, it would not really change anything for him. He already the legacy to back up his legendary and iconic career, he has already established himself as one of the greatest racers to throw his leg over a dirt bike, and I think that we should just be grateful that we even get to experience his greatness even still 12 years after being a main player of the 450 class.

 

              Of the championship contenders, Ken Roczen will be the guy to close this list off in my opinion. On paper, this is the best I think he has looked coming into a championship, he is running a familiar setup, unlike the rest of the contenders, and it is a setup that he has proven that he can win and contend week in and week out on. Kenny, contrary to Cooper Webb, is always coming in guns blazing into the championship, always grabbing solid results and being in the thick of the points race early on. It is always the latter stages of the championship that seem to be his Achilles Heel. Last season was probably his best go at a championship run that we have seen while at Suzuki. If you cross out the Tampa DNF from last season, he was within striking distance of both Sexton and Webb in the points. Now with an unfortunate injury he suffered later on, he was unable to make it a 3-way battle until the end. I think his situation will be similar this year, only improved. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with the points lead by round 5 or 6, it just really matters what he does after that stage of the championship. He is the most talented I think of this group, and he has the speed to win, we just need to see him connect the dots for the full 17 rounds which we have yet to see him do, but given he is healthy I think he can easily fight for this championship. I do not like making any statements based off of off-season performances, but all I will say is that I really liked what I saw from Kenny during WSX.

 

              Now it is time to shortly talk about the next group. Firstly, Hunter Lawrence, I think people that end up reading this will be upset at this decision because many people think he will definitely be in the top 3 fighting for this title, but I just do not see it. If it were an outdoor championship or SMX, I am easily putting him top 2 no questions asked, but this is supercross, we have not seen anything special from Hunter yet in Supercross. Out of 20 starts, he only has managed to get 1 podium, underwhelming, however I am not saying that the same trend will continue this year, in fact I think he will 1 maybe 2 races this year. This is a big season for Hunter; I think that for him this is going to be a year where he transitions from a top 5-7 guy into a guy who will contend for Supercross championships in future seasons starting with 2027 Supercross. I just simply do not think that he is ready to contend yet, I haven’t seen enough to where I am like, “You know what, that guy is really going to fight for it this year.” 

 

              Next up, Justin Cooper. While it has been awesome tracking the progress of Justin Cooper, I just do not think he is strong enough to compete for this title. I think he could win, but I will not be surprised if he does not. He has great starts and he displays really bright moments in his riding, but I think as of right now he has slightly plateaued in his progress. I think this season for him needs to be a way to start progressing again and really establish him self with the top guys. Not a ton much else to say about Jcoop other than he just needs to find a way to take that next step in his career.

 

              Now for Jason Anderson, riding with the Factory Suzuki squad. I like this move for El Hombre, I think he will be like he was at Kawi. I think Anderson can get a win this year, and if he does manage to do so, I think it will be in the early rounds of the championship, where he is typically strong. I don’t think he has what it takes to be a top player anymore, I think his time has passed to be in that conversation, but I think he can show little sparks of what he used to be earlier on in his career so I do hope we see some of that early on in the championship by possibly grabbing himself a win.

 

              Malcom Stewart, the Rockstar Husqvarna rider, who got himself possibly one of the most memorable main event wins in the history of the sport. I think it is unlikely that Malcom will grab a win this year but I definitely do think that it is possible. I do think most people hope for him to do well, with his highly appreciated personality and relationship with the fans, and personally for me, I love his exaggerated riding style. Hopefully solid results are in the works for Malcom Stewart.

 

              Lastly, I want to talk about both RJ Hampshire and Jorge Prado. I do not think either of them will be fighting for main event wins, but I think this season for both of them should be a stepping stone for future seasons, similar to Hunter Lawrence and Justin Cooper, just not at winning levels. This is an important season for Jorge Prado especially because of his fallout with Kawasaki and how public and vocal he was about not liking the bike and having a bad relationship inside the tent.  He is back on a familiar bike, so there is less room for excuses if he doesn’t perform up to standard.  I think a good goal for him would be to get 5-7 top 5 main event finishes. I think for outdoors the expectations for Prado will definitely be higher, but for Supercross I think this would be a solid goal to set for a rebound season like this. 

 

              Well there is my 2 cents on the pre-Anaheim conversations about the championship contenders, and also the B-tier list of riders who have winning potential. Although it is sad to see Jett Lawrence absent for this season, it has definitely in a way brought in more hype to the championship, because it is now significantly harder to say who is to take it all once it is all said and done. I have said this on social media, in a way this is reminiscent of the 2011 Supercross season. 4 guys who all have a genuine shot at the championship, and a clash of different eras fighting for that elusive championship. Let’s hope that these next few months provide us with as much excitement as that season did or perhaps somehow even more.

super_fan_38 wrote:

Upvoted, but the real question won't be the 2026 450 SX season, it will be the 2026 outdoor season and the 2027 450 sx season when...

Upvoted, but the real question won't be the 2026 450 SX season, it will be the 2026 outdoor season and the 2027 450 sx season when Danger Boy Deegan changes the landscrape of the moto/sx world.

super_fan_38 wrote:

Upvoted, but the real question won't be the 2026 450 SX season, it will be the 2026 outdoor season and the 2027 450 sx season when...

Upvoted, but the real question won't be the 2026 450 SX season, it will be the 2026 outdoor season and the 2027 450 sx season when Danger Boy Deegan changes the landscrape of the moto/sx world.

SoCalMX70 wrote:

If you're going for an "article" type format, lose the indents. Your paragraphs are already spaced as it is and this is a digital format, often...

If you're going for an "article" type format, lose the indents. Your paragraphs are already spaced as it is and this is a digital format, often read on small screens. You do make some solid points, which I'm sure are all being discussed (ad nauseum) by the usual media outlets.

If you're looking for "attention", whether for fun or as a potential career path, consider short videos (shorts/reels). For something Like this, I'd rapid fire a couple points on each rider and ask the viewer for their opinion. It absolutely pains me to say this, but most folks these days "don't got time for that shit" when they are staring at a wall of text or see that a video is 10+ minutes long. So, sure keep writing longer pieces for your own sanity, but you need to supplement with short attention grabbing content.

Anyway, STFU NOOB.

Top of The Moto wrote:

I mean yeah i’m going to school so i can do this, Im posting these because they’re just in my computer and i want at least...

I mean yeah i’m going to school so i can do this, Im posting these because they’re just in my computer and i want at least people to see it. I understand they are very long but in the specific like of work I want it’s likely to be necessary. Obviously i’m sending these to people who matter in the industry but I also wish to see what people on the outside think. Apologies that nobody likes it though. I probably will continue to post stuff like that just for me.

-MAVERICK- wrote:

Does your jaw hurt?