MXON Individual class prediction

DeStouwer
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10/2/2024 7:30am
DeStouwer wrote:
Meh...Renaux, Hunter, Plessinger, Coldenhoff, Fernández, Guillod, Bonacorsi, Tøndel, Van Doninck, Mewse, Pancar, Nagl, Wright, Kullas, Östlund,...I wouldn't call that "thin". MXGP-class has always been stacked more...

Meh...

Renaux, Hunter, Plessinger, Coldenhoff, Fernández, Guillod, Bonacorsi, Tøndel, Van Doninck, Mewse, Pancar, Nagl, Wright, Kullas, Östlund,...

I wouldn't call that "thin". MXGP-class has always been stacked more, but this is far from mediocre.

Tumic wrote:
So how many of those names after AP do you feel should be faster than him? Maybe Coldenhoff if he has one of his rare MxDN...

So how many of those names after AP do you feel should be faster than him? Maybe Coldenhoff if he has one of his rare MxDN super races, but otherwise i still see AP as a potentional podium rider IF he ride like he did at the last races of the nationals.

Four riders? Of those names are factory riders right? And the rest is not.

Why should Plessinger be the "bare minimum level" of that class? I was just stating that field is deeper as it seems.

Tumic
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10/2/2024 8:10am
DeStouwer wrote:

Why should Plessinger be the "bare minimum level" of that class? I was just stating that field is deeper as it seems.

I never said he’s the bare minimum but people seems surprised over that AP getting put in 3rd and i would expect one of the american factory riders that was the second best american in outdoors this summer to beat the top 10-15 Mxgp guys you listed.

Riders like Alvin and Kullas don’t make the field deep in my eyes. Deep for me is having many riders that can win the class, and i can only see 3-4 riders doing that.

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10/2/2024 8:25am Edited Date/Time 10/2/2024 8:35am

Another real question is, what are the odds that a racer from the OPEN class (mostly Hunter or Renaux) wins the 3rd race of the day in front of the MXGP guys ?

 

Another stat here, the ratio of wins of the last race per classes over the last 20 years :

 

MXGP 13 - 6 OPEN

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10/2/2024 8:29am

My prediction, weather/track conditions and starts can mix things up very badly. As its looking to be a very loose/little muddy track with the weather the last couple days/weeks and the forecast off dry on saturday and maybe rain on sunday i guess the good mud riders will have a slight advantage

MXGP: 1 Jett, 2 Herlings, 3 Tomac, 4 Geerts, 5 Febvre

MX2: 1 Coenen, 2 De Wolf, 3 Vialle, 4 Webb, 5 Haarup

Open: 1 Hunter, 2 Mewse, 3 Renaux, 4 Coldenhoff, 5 Van Doninck

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The Shop

10/2/2024 8:59am

*Normal Conditions:

MXGP - J. Lawrence, Herlings, Tomac

MX2 - De Wolf, Vialle, Coenen

Open - H. Lawrence, Plessinger, Renaux 

 

*Muddy conditions: 

tosses hands up in the air

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DeStouwer
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10/2/2024 10:19am
DeStouwer wrote:

Why should Plessinger be the "bare minimum level" of that class? I was just stating that field is deeper as it seems.

Tumic wrote:
I never said he’s the bare minimum but people seems surprised over that AP getting put in 3rd and i would expect one of the american...

I never said he’s the bare minimum but people seems surprised over that AP getting put in 3rd and i would expect one of the american factory riders that was the second best american in outdoors this summer to beat the top 10-15 Mxgp guys you listed.

Riders like Alvin and Kullas don’t make the field deep in my eyes. Deep for me is having many riders that can win the class, and i can only see 3-4 riders doing that.

3-4 possible winners is the same for every class...

Herlings, Jett, Prado, Gajser. Maybe Febvre & Tomac.

Coenen, Vialle, De Wolf, Längenfelder.

10/2/2024 11:03am

MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, 

MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De Wolf

Open:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff, 

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a4/Flag_of_the...


 

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kxking
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10/2/2024 11:11am
MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De WolfOpen:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff,  

MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, 

MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De Wolf

Open:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff, 

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a4/Flag_of_the...


 

I love your pride and optimism! 

Stamp this post, if those results hold true (exactly) I will PayPal $100usd to your favorite charity.

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Tumic
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10/2/2024 12:21pm
DeStouwer wrote:

3-4 possible winners is the same for every class...

Herlings, Jett, Prado, Gajser. Maybe Febvre & Tomac.

Coenen, Vialle, De Wolf, Längenfelder.

6 names for MX1 without Roczen that won one moto last year. I would not expect him to win this year, but i did not expect it last year neither.

 

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Herr Lich
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10/2/2024 2:29pm

MX1 1. Tomac 2. Jett 3. Prado

MX2 1. Coenan 2. De Wolf 3. Webb

MX3 1. Hunter 2. Renaux 3. Coldenhoff

Come on?  Jett will smoke Tomac.  

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Herr Lich
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10/2/2024 2:30pm
MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De WolfOpen:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff,  

MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, 

MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De Wolf

Open:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff, 

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a4/Flag_of_the...


 

Cocaine's a hell of a drug. 

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Herr Lich
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10/2/2024 2:33pm
MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De WolfOpen:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff,  

MXGP: 1. Tomac  2.Jett, 3. Herlings, 

MX2:    1. Webb  2. Coenen 3.De Wolf

Open:  1. Plessinger 2.Hunter 3.Coldenhoff, 

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a4/Flag_of_the...


 

kxking wrote:

I love your pride and optimism! 

Stamp this post, if those results hold true (exactly) I will PayPal $100usd to your favorite charity.

Either the poster has no idea about moto or is just blindingly optimistic.  Or just having a laugh.

Webb will be smoked by Coenen and De Wolf, Eli will be smoked by Jett, and as for AP...he'll just be smoked. 

 

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Mick 22
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10/2/2024 3:08pm Edited Date/Time 10/2/2024 3:09pm

The Bullet, Jett, Roczen, Tomac

Anstie, Vialle, Langenfelder, Coenen

Renaux, Coldenoff, Hunter, Mewse

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decano51
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10/2/2024 3:38pm

Wouldnt be surprised to see Hunter show out and be one of the fastest guys on the track. 

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Herr Lich
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10/2/2024 5:25pm
decano51 wrote:

Wouldnt be surprised to see Hunter show out and be one of the fastest guys on the track. 

Agreed. 

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10/2/2024 5:42pm
Press516 wrote:
Today's Kenny isn't last years Kenny...  This last injury took a lot out of him and he's not back up to fitness yet.MXGP - 1 Jett...

Today's Kenny isn't last years Kenny...  This last injury took a lot out of him and he's not back up to fitness yet.

MXGP - 1 Jett, 2 Gajser, 3 Prado

OPEN - 1 Hunter, 2 Renaux, 3 Plessinger 

MX2 - 1 Vialle, 2 Coenen, 3 DeWolf

But so much depends on track conditions...  I have Tomac 4th in MXGP and Webb 5th in MX2.  I have Webster 9th in MX2, but that might still be enough, depending on the moto scores.  And in the GP class will Febvre score low enough for FRA?  Maybe...  I have him 6th behind Herlings.

All just speculation and wild ass guesses...  Seems like it will be tight at the top.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Webster finished right in front or behind Webb. 5-9 range like you said.

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10/2/2024 5:54pm

The Australia Team lineup has changed, Jet will now be in Open, Hunter is now MXGP....

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1
10/2/2024 6:00pm

The Australia Team lineup has changed, Jet will now be in Open, Hunter is now MXGP....

I wonder what the strategy behind it is. Has to be something.

gerg
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10/2/2024 6:08pm Edited Date/Time 10/2/2024 6:14pm

The Australia Team lineup has changed, Jet will now be in Open, Hunter is now MXGP....

I wonder what the strategy behind it is. Has to be something.

Maybe a question mark with Jett's fitness over two full motos?

1
10/2/2024 6:18pm

The Australia Team lineup has changed, Jet will now be in Open, Hunter is now MXGP....

I wonder what the strategy behind it is. Has to be something.

gerg wrote:

Maybe a question mark with Jett's fitness over two full motos?

If there was fitness doubts, it would make more sense for Jett to be racing MXGP. He'll have to race back to back in Open.

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gerg
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10/2/2024 6:18pm Edited Date/Time 10/2/2024 6:19pm

I wonder what the strategy behind it is. Has to be something.

gerg wrote:

Maybe a question mark with Jett's fitness over two full motos?

If there was fitness doubts, it would make more sense for Jett to be racing MXGP. He'll have to race back to back in Open.

Ahh good point, I actually didn't realise that.

 

Strange decision.

1
10/2/2024 6:27pm

I wonder what the strategy behind it is. Has to be something.

gerg wrote:

Maybe a question mark with Jett's fitness over two full motos?

If there was fitness doubts, it would make more sense for Jett to be racing MXGP. He'll have to race back to back in Open.

Hunter is the one with fitness issues, he's faded late in the motos this year.

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1
10/2/2024 6:35pm
Tumic wrote:

Mx2: 1. Coenen 2. De Wolf 3. Vialle

Mx1: 1. J.Lawrence 2. Herlings 3. Prado

Open: 1. Renaux 2. H.Lawrence 3. Plessinger

Right here. I know he had an injury so I don't know how much time he's had on the bike. But Renaux is nasty. I was at Red Bud '22 when he held off Jett that entire moto. Really impressive 

Herr Lich
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10/2/2024 7:33pm

Update based on Jett changing to Open. 

Mx2: 1. Coenen 2. De Wolf 3. Vialle

Mx1: 1. Herlings 2. Prado 3. H. Lawrence

Open: 1. Jett Lawrence 2. Renaux 3. Plessinger

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js256
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10/2/2024 8:20pm

I Guess the strategy is that Jett in open gives a high chance of a 1-1 score. Bold move cotton lets see if it pulls off

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ando
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10/3/2024 6:56am
js256 wrote:

I Guess the strategy is that Jett in open gives a high chance of a 1-1 score. Bold move cotton lets see if it pulls off

You’d have to think Jett is gunning for 1-1 regardless of class.  It’s not the class positions that count, it’s the moto positions.

With a relatively weak Open class I’d have expected Hunter to be 1-2 in the Open-MX2 race.  Makes no difference in moto 3 but you’d expect Hunter to finish a bit worse in moto 1.

Has to be a fitness thing for Hunter.

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Press516
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10/3/2024 7:06am
js256 wrote:

I Guess the strategy is that Jett in open gives a high chance of a 1-1 score. Bold move cotton lets see if it pulls off

ando wrote:
You’d have to think Jett is gunning for 1-1 regardless of class.  It’s not the class positions that count, it’s the moto positions.With a relatively weak...

You’d have to think Jett is gunning for 1-1 regardless of class.  It’s not the class positions that count, it’s the moto positions.

With a relatively weak Open class I’d have expected Hunter to be 1-2 in the Open-MX2 race.  Makes no difference in moto 3 but you’d expect Hunter to finish a bit worse in moto 1.

Has to be a fitness thing for Hunter.

Yeah, it has to be something other than moto score related.  Hunter in the MX1 class is less likely to produce the scores that Jett would which would reduce their odds of winning.  

sam hain
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10/3/2024 7:11am

Ain't no way Webb is top 3 at mxon on a 250F, he didn't podium in SMX against our guys.

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NorCal1975
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10/3/2024 7:17am
Right here. I know he had an injury so I don't know how much time he's had on the bike. But Renaux is nasty. I was...

Right here. I know he had an injury so I don't know how much time he's had on the bike. But Renaux is nasty. I was at Red Bud '22 when he held off Jett that entire moto. Really impressive 

Renaux has been very up and down the last 5 or 6 motos since he returned.  Not very good honestly.  Febvre has not been as consistent or as fast as normal either.  That said, this is Nations so they will probably ride better than they have in the regular season races 

10/3/2024 11:58am
gerg wrote:

Maybe a question mark with Jett's fitness over two full motos?

If there was fitness doubts, it would make more sense for Jett to be racing MXGP. He'll have to race back to back in Open.

gerg wrote:

Ahh good point, I actually didn't realise that.

 

Strange decision.

Maybe it's the other way around, Hunter seamed to do worse in his second motos this year, maybe it's to help him rest?

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