Who are the actual championship contenders?

Press516
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2/13/2024 8:44am

The mistakes have been the deciding factor so far. 

Jett doesn't fall on the last lap, he has a bigger points lead.  

Ando doesn't power past the whoops and he's a really close 2nd in points.

AP doesn't fall at Glendale and he's the points leader.

Sexton doesn't bang up his hand in practice and he's...  You get the point.

If one of the top 6 gets it together consistently, they will separate themselves a bit from the pack.  Jett seems to have a slight advantage on race long speed.  Others have had faster laps, but his are fast throughout the race allowing him to move up.

Sexton and Webb had shown solid consistency until Glendale...  If they get that back, they are going to be there till the end.

Anderson and Roczen are the wildcards.  They run 1-2 for a few weeks, they are in it for sure.  But they seem higher risk to have a bad outing.

I'd love to see Tomac back in it, but I'm not feeling it...  It's like the fire isn't burning as hot as it used to.

What a great season so far and coming up!

9
SoCalMX70
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2/13/2024 11:27am

I'm all in on Kenny right now. After that, Sexton.

Jett with way too many close calls to not have a couple really bad races.

The above is just my gut and nothing else.

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1
2/13/2024 11:31am Edited Date/Time 2/13/2024 11:31am

Jett or the ground, because that is the only competitor that has a chance of beating him in the championship.

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ILoveMoto
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2/13/2024 11:45am

Jett or the ground, because that is the only competitor that has a chance of beating him in the championship.

Zähl mich nicht aus

# Nackenbrennen

Screenshot 20240213-144434 Chrome

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The Shop

Chris_Buehler
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2/13/2024 12:01pm

Jett or the ground, because that is the only competitor that has a chance of beating him in the championship.

ILoveMoto wrote:
Zähl mich nicht aus # Nackenbrennen

Zähl mich nicht aus

# Nackenbrennen

Screenshot 20240213-144434 Chrome

That will be a hell of a story if Roczen fixed his issues with fading over a long season at 30yrs old 

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ILoveMoto
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2/13/2024 12:33pm

That will be a hell of a story if Roczen fixed his issues with fading over a long season at 30yrs old 

Ich esse jetzt rohe Leber!

7
2/13/2024 3:15pm

Jett or the ground, because that is the only competitor that has a chance of beating him in the championship.

ILoveMoto wrote:
Zähl mich nicht aus # Nackenbrennen

Zähl mich nicht aus

# Nackenbrennen

Screenshot 20240213-144434 Chrome

That will be a hell of a story if Roczen fixed his issues with fading over a long season at 30yrs old 

He already had that fixed last year. Second half of the season he was much better

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burn1986
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2/13/2024 3:18pm
ILoveMoto wrote:
Zähl mich nicht aus # Nackenbrennen

Zähl mich nicht aus

# Nackenbrennen

Screenshot 20240213-144434 Chrome

That has got to be the coolest “timed” photo. Looks like he’s on fire 👍

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ILoveMoto
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burn1986 wrote:

That has got to be the coolest “timed” photo. Looks like he’s on fire 👍

Oh he's on fire Allright 🔥 

Screenshot 20240213-182250 Chrome.jpg?VersionId=wHd52HCmG

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2/13/2024 4:50pm Edited Date/Time 2/13/2024 4:51pm

Jett
Webb
Sexton
Kenny.

Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds I would have him as favorite. 

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2/13/2024 5:26pm
Jett Webb Sexton Kenny. Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds...

Jett
Webb
Sexton
Kenny.

Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds I would have him as favorite. 

Jett - reigning AMA 250 West Supercross Champion

Webb - washed up has been!

Sexton - reigning AMA 450 Supercross Champion

Kenny - reigning FIM Supercross World Champion

7
ando
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2/13/2024 6:37pm

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks as championship contenders.

It's basically showing how they have performed against each over the first six rounds (note that I've used 8 actual races as I've included the 3 triple crown races).

Who has moved up through the pack the best:

2024 SX positions gained

*Note - position gain includes scenarios where a rider ahead crashed, but passes does not.  The far right columns exclude races where the rider had a wire-to-wire win, purely out of interest to see if that changed the numbers.

My observations:

- Everyone thought Jett would start well but he's been the 2nd worst average starter after Ken.

- Jett and Kenny are clearly able to move through the pack better than the others.

- Ability of Webb, AP and ET to get ahead is surprisingly limited.

 

Who have they been passing?

2024 SX passes made.png?VersionId=j30l6qeYjxhmoRXgGyo6wxdCcL8EI4I

Note - this only counts passes made by other top 7 riders.  There may have been passes made by slower riders if someone was buried in the pack or crashed but that was far too much info to sift through.

Observations:

- Jett's only been passed once (by KR at San Francisco)

- Ken and Jett have the ability to go past everyone.

- Tomac and AP are clearly struggling to get past other top 7 guys.

 

Who are the road blocks?

2024 SX road blocks

These are the riders who the top 7 have passed the most.

17
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Mavetism
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2/13/2024 7:24pm
ILoveMoto wrote:
Zähl mich nicht aus # Nackenbrennen

Zähl mich nicht aus

# Nackenbrennen

Screenshot 20240213-144434 Chrome

That will be a hell of a story if Roczen fixed his issues with fading over a long season at 30yrs old 

crusty_xx wrote:

He already had that fixed last year. Second half of the season he was much better

And he wasn't even fading early in the season last year, he just was really off speed wise, but kept getting better and better once they figured out what to run on that bike. I guess not racing outdoors and not training at 100% throughout the whole year also seemed to help him? The last time he didn't race outdoors before that (2020) he nearly won a championship after and still had fading issues. Speed wise he is faster since then, but the field is also different, can't have any first turn pile up.

Man it would be fucking awesome to see him winning a sx championship on the yellow bike before he retires.

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Mavetism
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2/13/2024 7:24pm
ando wrote:
Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks...

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks as championship contenders.

It's basically showing how they have performed against each over the first six rounds (note that I've used 8 actual races as I've included the 3 triple crown races).

Who has moved up through the pack the best:

2024 SX positions gained

*Note - position gain includes scenarios where a rider ahead crashed, but passes does not.  The far right columns exclude races where the rider had a wire-to-wire win, purely out of interest to see if that changed the numbers.

My observations:

- Everyone thought Jett would start well but he's been the 2nd worst average starter after Ken.

- Jett and Kenny are clearly able to move through the pack better than the others.

- Ability of Webb, AP and ET to get ahead is surprisingly limited.

 

Who have they been passing?

2024 SX passes made.png?VersionId=j30l6qeYjxhmoRXgGyo6wxdCcL8EI4I

Note - this only counts passes made by other top 7 riders.  There may have been passes made by slower riders if someone was buried in the pack or crashed but that was far too much info to sift through.

Observations:

- Jett's only been passed once (by KR at San Francisco)

- Ken and Jett have the ability to go past everyone.

- Tomac and AP are clearly struggling to get past other top 7 guys.

 

Who are the road blocks?

2024 SX road blocks

These are the riders who the top 7 have passed the most.

Great stats!

3
2/13/2024 7:27pm
Jett Webb Sexton Kenny. Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds...

Jett
Webb
Sexton
Kenny.

Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds I would have him as favorite. 

Jett - reigning AMA 250 West Supercross Champion Webb - washed up has been! Sexton - reigning AMA 450 Supercross Champion Kenny - reigning FIM Supercross...

Jett - reigning AMA 250 West Supercross Champion

Webb - washed up has been!

Sexton - reigning AMA 450 Supercross Champion

Kenny - reigning FIM Supercross World Champion

I'm not following what your getting at.

2/13/2024 7:30pm
Jett Webb Sexton Kenny. Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds...

Jett
Webb
Sexton
Kenny.

Only because these are the least likely to self destruct, if Kenny had luck go his way in the first few rounds I would have him as favorite. 

Jett - reigning AMA 250 West Supercross Champion Webb - washed up has been! Sexton - reigning AMA 450 Supercross Champion Kenny - reigning FIM Supercross...

Jett - reigning AMA 250 West Supercross Champion

Webb - washed up has been!

Sexton - reigning AMA 450 Supercross Champion

Kenny - reigning FIM Supercross World Champion

I'm not following what your getting at.

Provoking Webb's fans!

3
2
ILoveMoto
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2/13/2024 8:15pm
Since you asked...    

Since you asked...

 

 

Cool Aria helmets! 🙂

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2
28hall
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2/13/2024 8:25pm
ando wrote:
Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks...

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks as championship contenders.

It's basically showing how they have performed against each over the first six rounds (note that I've used 8 actual races as I've included the 3 triple crown races).

Who has moved up through the pack the best:

2024 SX positions gained

*Note - position gain includes scenarios where a rider ahead crashed, but passes does not.  The far right columns exclude races where the rider had a wire-to-wire win, purely out of interest to see if that changed the numbers.

My observations:

- Everyone thought Jett would start well but he's been the 2nd worst average starter after Ken.

- Jett and Kenny are clearly able to move through the pack better than the others.

- Ability of Webb, AP and ET to get ahead is surprisingly limited.

 

Who have they been passing?

2024 SX passes made.png?VersionId=j30l6qeYjxhmoRXgGyo6wxdCcL8EI4I

Note - this only counts passes made by other top 7 riders.  There may have been passes made by slower riders if someone was buried in the pack or crashed but that was far too much info to sift through.

Observations:

- Jett's only been passed once (by KR at San Francisco)

- Ken and Jett have the ability to go past everyone.

- Tomac and AP are clearly struggling to get past other top 7 guys.

 

Who are the road blocks?

2024 SX road blocks

These are the riders who the top 7 have passed the most.

Great work with the stats! I saw your Tomac stats in another thread and immediately thought about what the comparison to Roczen would be and here it is! Even though Tomac is only 2 points behind I feel he has way more work to improve and the stats show how well Kenny is performing minus the end results.

1
1
SoCalMX70
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2/13/2024 9:32pm
ando wrote:
Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks...

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks as championship contenders.

It's basically showing how they have performed against each over the first six rounds (note that I've used 8 actual races as I've included the 3 triple crown races).

Who has moved up through the pack the best:

2024 SX positions gained

*Note - position gain includes scenarios where a rider ahead crashed, but passes does not.  The far right columns exclude races where the rider had a wire-to-wire win, purely out of interest to see if that changed the numbers.

My observations:

- Everyone thought Jett would start well but he's been the 2nd worst average starter after Ken.

- Jett and Kenny are clearly able to move through the pack better than the others.

- Ability of Webb, AP and ET to get ahead is surprisingly limited.

 

Who have they been passing?

2024 SX passes made.png?VersionId=j30l6qeYjxhmoRXgGyo6wxdCcL8EI4I

Note - this only counts passes made by other top 7 riders.  There may have been passes made by slower riders if someone was buried in the pack or crashed but that was far too much info to sift through.

Observations:

- Jett's only been passed once (by KR at San Francisco)

- Ken and Jett have the ability to go past everyone.

- Tomac and AP are clearly struggling to get past other top 7 guys.

 

Who are the road blocks?

2024 SX road blocks

These are the riders who the top 7 have passed the most.

Makes me feel even better about my endorsement of Kenny.

2
Tumic
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2/13/2024 9:41pm

With the new whoops and new format, Webb’s strength just became a little irrelevant.

He has always lacked the speed of the top guys and now with whoops that don’t turn in to jumpers and a fresher track that allows for higher speeds, both Sexton and Roczen are in a better place at the moment.

And i still doubt that Ken will be up there the whole season.

2
ando
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2/13/2024 10:20pm
ando wrote:
Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks...

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks as championship contenders.

It's basically showing how they have performed against each over the first six rounds (note that I've used 8 actual races as I've included the 3 triple crown races).

Who has moved up through the pack the best:

2024 SX positions gained

*Note - position gain includes scenarios where a rider ahead crashed, but passes does not.  The far right columns exclude races where the rider had a wire-to-wire win, purely out of interest to see if that changed the numbers.

My observations:

- Everyone thought Jett would start well but he's been the 2nd worst average starter after Ken.

- Jett and Kenny are clearly able to move through the pack better than the others.

- Ability of Webb, AP and ET to get ahead is surprisingly limited.

 

Who have they been passing?

2024 SX passes made.png?VersionId=j30l6qeYjxhmoRXgGyo6wxdCcL8EI4I

Note - this only counts passes made by other top 7 riders.  There may have been passes made by slower riders if someone was buried in the pack or crashed but that was far too much info to sift through.

Observations:

- Jett's only been passed once (by KR at San Francisco)

- Ken and Jett have the ability to go past everyone.

- Tomac and AP are clearly struggling to get past other top 7 guys.

 

Who are the road blocks?

2024 SX road blocks

These are the riders who the top 7 have passed the most.

SoCalMX70 wrote:

Makes me feel even better about my endorsement of Kenny.

As a Jett supporter I feel that Ken is the biggest threat right now.

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2/13/2024 11:16pm

Nice work on the stats Ando.

The "who have they been passing" stat is a good indicator. Tomac has one pass on top 7 riders in 6 races, same as AP. Jett has 7, so does Ken. I've cheered for Eli since he was a rookie with 243, but I'm almost ready to admit that he's out of the title hunt. So that leaves 6, but I think it's more likely 3 and 3. The big 3 are Jett, Roczen and Webb. Sexton is on the edge, but if he indeed has a bone bruise of his hand that is going to be bugging him for the rest of the season. For AP and JA21 I just see inconsistency catching up to them.

Interesting to hear on SML Kickstart podcast that Anderson is moving to North Carolina to train. I think they said at Club, working more with Jon Wessling one on one. 

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CPR
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2/13/2024 11:22pm
ando wrote:
Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks...

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread but here's an analysis of the current top 7 in points; these riders were also most peoples picks as championship contenders.

It's basically showing how they have performed against each over the first six rounds (note that I've used 8 actual races as I've included the 3 triple crown races).

Who has moved up through the pack the best:

2024 SX positions gained

*Note - position gain includes scenarios where a rider ahead crashed, but passes does not.  The far right columns exclude races where the rider had a wire-to-wire win, purely out of interest to see if that changed the numbers.

My observations:

- Everyone thought Jett would start well but he's been the 2nd worst average starter after Ken.

- Jett and Kenny are clearly able to move through the pack better than the others.

- Ability of Webb, AP and ET to get ahead is surprisingly limited.

 

Who have they been passing?

2024 SX passes made.png?VersionId=j30l6qeYjxhmoRXgGyo6wxdCcL8EI4I

Note - this only counts passes made by other top 7 riders.  There may have been passes made by slower riders if someone was buried in the pack or crashed but that was far too much info to sift through.

Observations:

- Jett's only been passed once (by KR at San Francisco)

- Ken and Jett have the ability to go past everyone.

- Tomac and AP are clearly struggling to get past other top 7 guys.

 

Who are the road blocks?

2024 SX road blocks

These are the riders who the top 7 have passed the most.

I was thinking I wouldn’t be prepared to put Webb as one of the top contenders after last weekend, and your stats seem to support that. His results so far rely on him getting a good start, unlike Jett or Roczen.

So at this stage I’m going to say obviously Jett and Sexton, Ando and Roczen ( but they have some catching up to do). While Webb, Tomac and Star have some work ahead of them. I don’t think Plessinger stays in it for the long haul, but hope he proves me wrong.

1
ThatOneMXGuy
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2/14/2024 12:55am

Webb, Lawrence, Sexton. Maybe Anderson and Roczen.

SteveB
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2/14/2024 5:21am Edited Date/Time 2/14/2024 5:21am

Supercross in 2023 proved to me that anything can happen and it is way to early yet to write off any of the fast guys.

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ILoveMoto
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2/14/2024 5:32am
CPR wrote:

There’s plenty here who won’t like that, but it’s true and always has been.

No such thing as a sure bet so we'll see. I enjoy the journey as much as the destination so I'm good no matter who wins 

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