Who are the actual championship contenders?

Jett i think will be the most consistent and win the title. I dont think hes going to set the series on fire like we all thought coming in.. but hes fast enough to overcome mediocre starts and i see that as a strength he has over most

The next guy in line.. Honestly its Roczen for me. That dude gets good starts and has blazing initial lap speed. That could be deadly in this stacked field as we seen this last weekend. 

Next for me is Sexton. I think he Dungey's his way to being in the hunt at the last round. 

I think the rest are too inconsistent. Anderson has weird crashes. Tomac has those WTF races. Dylan cant get starts. Not sure what to think about Webb either.

Let’s get through Daytona first.

I agree, Jett, Roczen, and Sexton, but injuries may eliminate one or two.

AP may not be a full-on title threat but he sure has improved a lot this year. Looks super confident.

I think Jett is favored to win. Sexton is kind of injured. Webb, Bromac, Anderson, Kenny can win or finish 9th without any rhyme or reason.

Ap needs to stop wrecking while leading or going for the lead.  He's kind of developing a thing. If he can clean that up id throw him in the mix for sure

It’s Jett. Everyone is inconsistent and/or lack Jett’s top end speed. Pulling a Dungey only works when there’s no Villopoto. Unfortunately for Sexton, “Villopoto” exists in the form of Jett. Roczen will have a bad race here and there. Anderson also has weird races where he’s not podium speed (Detroit, San Diego). Webb will be Jett’s closest competitor but it’s gonna be hard for him his year with how much speed there is. It’s not just Tomac or Roczen he had to deal with like in 19 and 21, now you got Anderson and Jett. 
For those reasons, all of Jett’s competitors will consistently have off races where as Jett has the speed to guarantee a podium wherever he starts. Barring any injury it’s his title to lose.

So far mathematically speaking...

Still think it is pretty wide open.

Tomac can still go on a tear at any given moment, Sexton won't have many nights when he is not on the podium.

If Kenny keeps getting starts like that and grows in confidence he could go on a win streak.

Anderson has actually been impressive in the way he handled the whole Jett thing, said his piece, and has raced Jett fairly since, not got into on track beef with him, and has the speed to win races and probably the best at coming through the pack behind Jett or maybe even on par.

Webb with starts will be good, would probably put him and Plessinger on the outer of the chances to still win the title.

Jett probably the favorite at the moment, but he has had some close calls the past couple of weekends, the close one off the step on off at Detroit, then cased that double big time twice on the weekend, something like that could bite him at some point.

End of the day, we have the best start to the season in a long time, maybe ever, there are two riders who have not won, yet that are genuine chances of a round win (Tomac and Anderson)

And Mookie finally looked better on the weekend, him and Hunter and Ferrandis are probably long odds to win a round, but still would not be a complete shock to see either one of these three take a win, Hunter at Daytona?

Just hope the season keeps like this for another 11 rounds and into the Outdoors

Exactly, he’d be back in the points lead if he didn’t fall last weekend 

To me it's in 2 groups

1a: Jett, Sexton, Webb. If I'm putting money down, it's on one of these 3.

1b: Roczen, Anderson, Tomac, Plessinger

Roczen is set up to jump to group A if he can eliminate the bad races, Anderson needs to at least get a win, and Tomac needs a win and no more bad races. If Plessinger can sneak in another (he looks that good lately) and keep putting it in the top 5, he's a dark horse for sure.

Jett looks like he's teetering on the edge of throwing it away and going on a tear. We'll see how Sexton's hand affects his improvement on the bike after the break.

I think Jett, Sexton, Webb, and Kenny right now are my picks. Kenny didn’t get great results the first couple rounds but he has been riding really well. I think Tomac will get better as the season goes on, and for as bad as it feels like it has gone he isn’t that far back, but he might be too far out in a few more races. I really hope AP makes a run. His riding has been phenomenal this year. Outside of the win, he’s had some really good rides. Only thing that gives me hesitation is he’s not been in a 450SX championship fight, so does the lack of experience hurt him? I hope not because he’s the dude who would be the most fun to win. Anderson also deserves to be in this conversation, but what ML said on the review pod really summarizes my feelings. I just can’t put Anderson consistently above those other guys. 

"Jett has the speed to guarantee a podium wherever he starts"

Yea, history proves that 🤯

1, 9, 4, 6, 1, 3... my math says 50% of the time 🤔

JLaw, Sexton & Webb.  I’d love to see Anderson there at the end but I’m not sure it’ll happen.

6 races down with 11 to go in a 17 race schedule is way too early to narrow it down to 3 riders. Injuries and bad luck unfortunately will rear their ugly head and the chess pieces will get shuffled. Realistically, 1-7 could take the title as of today in my opinion 

Fair enough, I should’ve nuanced my response better. 2 of those races were mudders, and A2 he was in 2nd until the last lap. He has the speed to get to a podium whenever he starts, it’s just dependent on him not crashing like he did at A2

Webb, Sexton, Jett, Roczen. In that order.

The reason I'm putting Jett 3rd is because he has been riding the edge for way too long now. He only has that many lives. One of these races he's gonna go down big if he doesn't take a step back from riding the edge.

You've listed 2 more variables besides injuries and bad luck which is why I stand by my too early to call sentiment. I still can't believe Eli lost last years championship at his home track so late in the season. This sport is brutal and all of these guys are under-appreciated by many.

Kudos to you for keeping your response civil

Pretty obvious it is Jett's to lose. He had two bad races, they were mudders, on a dry track he will be the fastest. Keeping in mind injuries occur, consider Kenny and Webb next up.

Since getting on a 450, the only time I can remember someone straight up passing Jett for the lead was Kenny at High Point. Kenny might have also got him at Chicago but Jett kinda robbed us of that battle. Someone needs to prove that they can catch and pass Jett when he is out front, or else I agree its his to lose. 

Sexton injured? Did I miss something?

I've had to rethink my position on Jason Anderson too. I've never been a fan of him personally, but he's looking as fast as he did several years ago...and knows his way around a SX track. That, and with his new Kawie looking so dialed...it wouldn't shock the hell out of me to see JA21 step up after Daytona, and give Jett some serious competition.

They said on the broadcast he hurt his hand or finger or something on Tuesday. Tried to ride Thursday but couldn’t grip the bike. Sounded like he was iffy on even being able to race Saturday. 

In my eyes the cream that's rising to the top is Jett, Sexton, Ando, Webb and Kenny.

If Ando doesn't have that penalty he's P2 in points. His speed is there and has shown he can make passes and move through the field. I think he wins soon and solidifies his contender status.

Remove Kenny's crash in San Diego and those bad starts and I think he has the red plate. Maybe a slow start to the year and hitting his stride mid-season is the magic combination Kenny has needed? That and his current headspace. He's been known for being coming out guns blazing and getting the red plate early, before losing steam down the stretch.. Speed obviously isn't a problem. I would absolutely love to see Kenny build some momentum and be in the fight late in the series.

Webb and Sexton need to right the ship... But i think they figure out how to stay in it. Especially Webb once we go east.

Jett is still the favorite in my eyes, but he battling himself out there. So many close calls that could have been big ones. It's going to bite him before too long if he doesn't get a handle on it. 

Unfortunately I just haven't seen anything from Tomac aside from the 1 TC win to make me believe he's in contention. Rooting for Tomac more than ever this year and I hope I'm wrong. Either way it's awesome for us fans to see him back out there this year.

And lastly, Plessinger benefitted big time from two mudders and the chaos early on to be where he's at, but I think he fades away from the sharp end. I think he's still having a career year and is the best we've ever seen him on 450s, but i don't know if he's going to be in the title hunt down the stretch.

If Jett tries to go out and win every race balls out under any and all circumstances, he's going to crash out at some point and take a significant hit in the points battle.  In that scenario, I'd put my money on Sexton and Webb to battle it out until the end.  Webb always gets better as the season goes on.  If Jett plays it smart and wins the races he gets good starts in without going over the edge and does what he did in Glendale and realizes podiums in SX will win championships, I have to put Jett at the top.  I think Ken, Eli, AP, and Ando all make it interesting and they all win some races.  I just think the most consistent will be Webb, Jett, and Sexton in the end.  There are enough guys with elite speed in the 450 class to win a race on any given weekend.  I still think Ando and Eli get wins this year.  There's a remote chance DF and Hunter could get a win as well depending on the circumstances.

I believe Jett went down and Kenny and Marchbanks passed him. He got back up chilled for a few laps and then charged back to the front.

Hunter Lawrence:

"I was behind him (Jett) when he almost died"

We're a third of the way through the championship and statistically the contenders for the championship are the top 3 in points. That said 2024 has the closest points battles since they went to 17 rounds in 2008, so that could change. Eleven more rounds to see if the trend continues. 

Since 2008:

The points leader after 6 rounds went on to win the title ten times.

Four times it was the rider second in points.

Twice it was the rider third in points. 

Current Top 10 in Points:

Jett 117pts.

Sexton 111pts.

Plessinger 108pts.

Webb 107 pts.

Anderson 106pts. 

Roczen 102pts.

Tomac 100pts.

Ferrandis 93pts.

Hunter 69pts. 

Barcia 63pts. 

Nah....it's over bro.    It's Jets....has been from day 1....not just  from the day he was born....but when the big bang happened.

All hail the golden calf....

"2024 has the closest points battles since they went to 17 rounds in 2008, so that could change"

And that is precisely why I myself can't call it...yet

What time does Deegan Race????????????

When it's time