Who does this championship ultimately boil down to?

Unfortunately we are about to watch a jett lawrence boring sweep.  Dude cannot ride mud,  thats for sure.

It’s Jett’s to lose if he can keep his ego out of the way. I’m not a big fan of his, but he’s got the talent and backing to dominate for years. If he doesn’t win, it’s because he sabotaged himself. And it looks like the self destruction is peeking around the corner, he’s just starting to show his weakness, but his team will step in the best they can. 
 

Interesting times in moto! 

At San Diego in Jett’s heat race he was several bike lengths behind the field heading down the start straight. 2 turns later and after the whoops he had the lead by 3 bike lengths. Believe me when I say I’m not a Jett fanboy, but I don’t see him losing once it dries up. He was stuck behind Anderson for a few laps and once he got by he gapped JA by 6 seconds in 2 laps. 

I think it’s going to be a Jett runaway with occasion challenges from Webb/Sexton with Tomac/Roczen fading as the series moves along.  

We will know  at Daytona , 

Yeah, last to 4th is subpar. Can't ride mud for shit lol.

Jett, Webb, and Sexton are the three most likely in my opinion. Tomac in the conversation as well, but I am a bit shaky on him at this point in his career.

Likely for the championship

Jett - I see a Stewart-like performance for him in the rookie year, checkers or wreckers.

Webb - will be in it all year, most consistent 

Chase - same Chase as Honda- like Jett checkers or wreckers, but not to the same degree as Jett. His checkers will be less dominant, and his wreckers will be less damaging

less likely

Tomac- will bring the heat in the second half of the season, but it might be too late.

Anderson - I think we will see the 2022 Anderson, blazing fast and a potential for race wins, but not the championship

long shot

AP - love the dude and nice to see him get a win, but I dont see him at the top in a full season

Ken - didn't consider him as a championship favorite and still don't. The mudders should have pushed him closer to the top but didnt.

If I’m putting my money anywhere rn it’s coop. He hasn’t rode like this in a long time, imo wasn’t even this fast on ktm in his championship years 

I don't get how people are still handing this to Jett. Sure, he's got a great chance, maybe the best one. But it's not he's dominating like outdoors.
So far he has only won one race out of 6 total races including the heat races. Sure, we had two mud races, but he also had some issues in dry conditions. Webb beat him straight up in the A1 heat. His press day crash at this weekend was in the dry. Supercross is a different beast.
If I had to bet I'd say Webb, Jett, Kenny, Sexton, Tomac in this order. None of these is out of this yet. Tomac had a shitty race because Craig ran into him but he clearly had the pace to win it or at least be on the box. Same with Kenny although his struggles in the last 2 races are on him. A1 was not.

Maybe I'm dumb for leaving out the current points leader

I hope it stays unpredictable for awhile, it keeps it fun. unfortunately I think if it stays dry Jett will ruin that

Another thing - I truly believe Roczen will be fast & strong enough to land several podiums and maybe a couple of main event wins throughout the rest of the season, but he's already 18 points down (I think) and he's never been a guy to chase people down in points as the season wears on. Typically, it's the opposite.

I think you hit the nail on the head, Jett and Webb seem to have way more fight than the others.

Jett took the win (going away) in the dry and had some bad luck in the mud but is still right there.

Webb has brought the fight and looks to be the hardest charger, and if it wasn't for the crash at A1 would top 2 in points right now.

Chase looked good with the hole-shot in the mud but had 2 falls this weekend in the mud to look average.

Eli looked good in the mud at San-Fran but got lapped in the mud in San D.

A few more dry races will tell the story quite quickly though.

Seasons over....just give it to Jett.

Bow to the new King of SX....he doesn't need 72 wins.

Usually whoever has the most points. 

I’m cheering for Aaron Plessinger to win this series, but it’s probably gonna be Sexton Webb and Jett with Tomac as a strong contender to get stronger as the series continues 

Kenny seems to have turned a bit of a corner and looks like he has the old fighter in him. Maybe I'm optimistic but I'm hoping he doesn't fade away and pull out after Daytona to rest up or something like that. 

Still belive that Jett will shake those two races off and get back to dominating. 
 

Tomac still don’t look like championship material. For me it’s Jett first and second/third stands between Webb and Sexton.

agreed. he likes playing mind games, and Jett has already proven he's fragile as hell. CW will have him twisted like a pretzel.

How many of these guys can…just might…win 5, 6 or 7 Mains/Over-Alls this season? 

Here’s my list of The Usual Suspects:

Sexton 

Tomac

Webb

Anderson 

Jett

Roczen

Plessinger 

Barcia 

Just imagine “if” all of them won 1 main, yes…I know…some already have…but, if all of’em were to win 1…that’s 8 mains. Damn. I really, really like the sound of that. But, hey, sooooo many of you are gonna tell me how that ain’t gonna happen, right? 

Here’s my list of guys that could win a main…could…if they get their shit together…

Cianciarulo 

Stewart

Ferrandis

Cooper 

Hunter 

Prado 

Thats 14 that I believe could win a main. Hell, you get  the stars to align…Wilson or Craig could win one…but, do we really want Vital to melt down? 

Well, anyways, there you have it. I know, I know…complete madness. “Dude, you’re an idiot!” Yes, I guess I am. But, know this: I’m thinking about all of these possibilities based on the crazy stuff I’ve seen happen at the races since I was a kid in the ‘70s. Rick Ryan winning Daytona. Windham winning Daytona win Chad’s bike quit…Jake Marsack getting 3rd that night, remember him? How about Dubach winning San Jose in ‘91…? 

Sure, call me crazy. 

I'd put Brayton's Daytona win in with the "it could happen" scenarios - no one saw that coming

Nice! 

THIS^^^^

I really want Eli to win it since this is most likely his last season and he should have won it straight up last year. He could have retired easily for valid reasons and his family and future generations are already $et. But instead he came back after a gnarly injury to race the most stacked class ever. He doesn't owe anyone anything. 

However, with a class this stacked it's going to take pure warp speed and grit (or talent). 

It's gonna come down to Jett and Webb it looks like (so far). But it's still early and I'm not counting anyone out quite yet. 

I was lil worried 1st lap SD heat race. Jett going 100mph faster than anyone, blitzes the whoops. Next lap, weeds it in the whoops. Maybe a little too fast for conditions? Tomac wins the heat.

He definitely doesn't start well in the mud! I hope his difficult weekend humbles him just a little.

i think the broadcast gave that pass way to much credit. it was awesome to watch but they way the pack was all bunched up behind a some how hole shot by clason. tomac and everyone else got stuck behind him. and couldnty go right due to the pack still being bunched. still impressive but they acted like he was just that much faster through that section then everyone the whole weekend. and it was very much not the case 

I kind of get some Herlings vibes from Jett. What I mean by that is I could totally see him yarding himself out of the championship while he tries to crush the field by 30 seconds every race.

Either way I'm here for it. I just want to see some good racing.

you thought his run through the whoops was average, or he was just average until that point?

As far as outdoors goes…it’s hard not to see domination for a while but…..

as far as SX the sample is too small to make the same assumption.  His 250 career was really good…but not unheard of.  The tight confines and different style track ….I feel he will do well but not dominate.  Some ships and some not.

….also…it’s almost like we are blowing off the whole upcoming generation.  4 years ago Jett is something we have seen, and will see, more of.  Is everyone willing to blow off Prado, Deegan, Juju, ect to not be able to make that same progress from the same starting point we saw from Jett starting SX.  I think we will see some pretty amazing riders challenge….especially in SX.  But time will tell.  As for 72?  and for a sample size in 450s…it’s like watching a really good golfer playing his first PGA tournament and having a good first hole…and then declaring him the tournament leader before seeing a second good hole.  Nobody would do that…but here we are.  1 win for Jett and 71 more to tie.  I don’t think it will happen.  We will see.