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I get what you are saying but have you checked out how deep in the field money is made golfing. The 139th ranked golfer still make over a million.
https://www.cbssports.com/golf/rankings/money-list/
AC says that, but Bubba went pro at 16, Millsaps 16, Alessi 16, Roczen 15, Herlings 15, Jett Lawrence 16. A lot went pro at 17 like RV, Stroupe, izzi, Canard, Josh Hill, Dung
The reason so many of today’s ‘top prospects’ don’t pan out is because there are too many ‘top prospects’ today, I think.
Back in the day (I know, most people under 40 just rolled their eyes and tuned out!) there were only a few of these ‘can’t miss’ amateurs coming out, and a few years between them usually. Even the guys who eventually became superstars, like Rick Johnson, didn’t immediately get full team support in the same way that the guys today can expect after graduating Loretta’s.
Look at it this way; nearly everyone is happy that a guy like Dean Wilson continues to be able to collect a paycheck to race a motorcycle. But as long as a guy like Dean (or others, certainly not singling him out or saying he shouldn’t have a ride!) occupies a seat, that’s one less young rider who has a really good opportunity to put in a few years at the pro level and grow.
There’s not much chance of going back to the 70s and 80s when younger and older guys could make a living riding several local races a week with a couple of Nationals a year, so now guys try to hang on much longer than they used to and they have better marketability than most of the relatively unknown younger guys.
Burnout and they give up, which I don't blame them at times, that's a lot of hours and injuries. But I'll use Kevin Moranz as an example, I remember racing him in the B class in arenacross and he lapped me, dude was super fast, but I don't think he ever was an elite amateur. I am pretty sure he also went to high school and was a starter on the football team. He kept progressing, got a taste of mains and wanted it. So even if a ride didn't come he found a way to market himself, built a youtube channel, and got a WSX ride. He is "making it" in my opinion. Top amateur kid is used to winning, having it all, loses a ride, and you will see him post about not having a bike or looking for a ride, but you don't see him turning over every stone to make it happen. It seems like they say welp I had my shot, I didn't make it, start to hate the sport and sail off into the distance. There are a ton of top prospects who could be making mains and top 10s on their own programs, but without the salary from the factory it's not worth it to them. Again probably goes back to burnt out.
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Dazza, keeps saying every message to me. It’s all Technique, I pushed that with him.
And I think people time it wrong, IMO you don't want to be winning championships on 50s and 60s, you want to keep it fun during those times, race locally, maybe hit up a local Ponca type national, ride 1-2 times a week if that, and then if you are "talented" start peaking at supermini, 250b age; those guys appear to be the ones who are more likely to make it. Itd be interesting for someone to pull the 50 results from LL from 10-15years ago and see if the winners are the champions of today or if it's the kids midpack or not even at LL during those years; Levi Kitchen comes to mind.
And the few top prospects that existed weren't considered that because they won on 65's and had a factory ride after that. They were considered top prospects because as they came up through the ranks as a true amateur who traveled from home every weekend they consistently beat the other kids doing it that way too. The cream naturally rose to the top, it wasn't painstakingly manufactured.
It’s a meat grinder, always has been, always will be…but…. I like the EMX 125. & 250 structure, maybe require kids to ride at least 1 year of an entry level pro class…. Losing the 125 Nationals is the biggest mistake in the history our sport…. IMO…
I’m actually glad you mentioned deegan because the guy who responded to me harped on the suzuki part but I wasnt talking about suzuki that was just one example. Deegan is an even better example. Ktm invested huge money and resources into him from the time he was on 50’s until he got on 125’s. They brought him up through the entire amateur system and then when its time to turn pro he goes to yamaha. So yamaha got a fully fleshed out ready to race top prospect after ktm did all of the development work. Nothing wrong with it at all but I’m just saying isnt it a much smarter idea to not run any amateur program whatsoever and then just sign the top guys once they turn pro? If everybody then starts to have this mindset nobody has the factory amateurs and then it evens out again. Right now its a wash everybody has amateur programs and everybody signs other brands riders so it all evens out, but then it also evens out if none of them do it.
So you’re telling MX/SX isn’t easy?
Thats not what I’m talking about I’m talking about the phenom amateurs. The ACs, Forkners, Jett Reynolds. Im not asking why not everybody can win a championship. They WERE going to be elite level guys, but their careers got derailed by injuries and burn out. AC had the body of a 9 yr old boy when he turned pro, so when he crashed his rookie season he blew out his shoulder. No 9yr old body can survive crashing a 250f in a supercross whoop section. Forkners injuries have just been compounding more and more. Jett Reynolds was completely burnt out by the time he turned pro and that has lead to him making mistakes on the practice track and getting injured. What I’m saying is if the generational talent guys before moto compounds were peaking years after they turned pro, but now the generational talent kids are turning pro worn out and getting massive injuries over and over, it seems this model is not producing the results it should.
What does jett, hunter, and deegan all have in common. None of them grew up on a moto compound and their careers are all going incredibly so far and according to plan just like it used to with rc, bubba, rv…etc.
I think you are absolutely correct that this model isn't producing the results that people think it should, but a lot of people are making a lot of money off of it and it's very hard for well meaning parents to not get sucked into it. I would love for more pros or guys who didn't make it to keep giving their thoughts on this, but most of them are still beholden to the industry in one way or another so they have to walk a fine line.
Ultimately people are trying to know the unknowable. There is no perfecting this. You cannot know who will succeed at the next level with any degree of certainty. NFL has basically unlimited resources to help them decide which grown men in their early 20's they want to select after those grown men have spent at least 3 years being developed by college teams who have nearly endless resources, and the NFL teams get it wrong as often as they get it right. At least most of those guys have college degrees and aren't working on their GED when they're 25 and need a new life plan.
Do those at a moto farm look after you as good as family?
I am a full I time professional coach with 33 years experience, athletes that have competed and won at all levels, youth to NCAA Champions and Olympians - if you truly want to know why, google and read this book:
Every Moment Matters, John O’Sullivan
It will all become clear on why many youth in modern youth sports don’t pan out.
This ain't it.
This is the nonsense bullshit that is sold to parents. You're just one coach or investment away from turning junior into something elite, just write the check and trust me, I'll tell you all about the one success I've had but not anything about all of the others who didn't make it.... it's their fault for not adhering to the program.
The notion that its just some formula that when applied correctly turns junior into the next star/Olympian/scholarship athlete is total bullshit. Stop believing this. If your kid has the goods, that will become clear whether or not you hire the right coach or not.
Stop believing the people who pay their bills by selling this con.
Truck, yes and no. I have been an mx coach for 40yrs and every 50 or 65cc rider I put on my team turned pro but I coached thousands of others that didn’t, how I chose my team riders including Hunter and Jett was 3 main reasons, 1.do they love riding,2 do they listen to there parents. 3 Do there parents want to listen and learn. For 12yrs now I have told every family that Dazza is my best ever student and he didn’t ride, he was just a parent, eg. He discussed the left foot for 4 months with new exersizes and vids every day. So any rider who didn’t fit these 3 then it became obvious they wouldn’t make it.
So I guess my question is could you have made a living for 40 years without those thousands who you knew weren't going to make it, and did you tell their parents up front they had no chance?
I don't think the sample size is large enough to say that living at a moto compound will ruin a career that otherwise would have been successful.
You don't think Jett faced things that would burn him out? He raced in Europe, lived in a garage, and at canned fish and bread. You don't think Ricky's mom burned him out? He rode an insane amount, every day.
I think it just comes down to some people peaking earlier, some people later, and there are only so many spots at the top of the sport.
Pit Row
Bit of both, not all expect to make it, eg we all went to training every week for every other sport and other side, it was the parent that wanted it more than the rider
Came here to say this ✌
Kids also don't know how to race. I understand having to learn the fundamentals first, but what good does hitting a rut over and over at a facility with no one around you, no roost flying, no track barriers etc; because when you get in a race, have a bad start, you won't be able to hit the "line" you want every lap. Same way with SX, I think so many people get hurt because they practice laps at the track in the goat trail, yet when comes race time they're having to hit the same rhythms 3 wide and 20 deep. When I was growing up MTF was only facility I knew of, now seems like you can find a facility within 60 miles each way of you. Allows those ex pros and teachers to make a living, so good for them that's awesome, but how long will that model be sustainable?
Really enjoyed reading all this. My kid is 17, will ride a 125 till he is 18, and is starting to show signs of desire and speed. Will he make it to the Pro ranks? Unlikely, but we aren't chasing it at all costs. It'll be up to him to mature into the person who is willing to commit what it takes, and even then he might not have enough speed and skill, or an injury might end it. I'm hopeful that the route we've taken will build that maturity at 19 or 20 when he is physically ready for the stress that racing a 250 induces. We've seen so many local fast kids jump to the 250 (IMHO) too early and end up injured in the first few months.
Oh, and we race. Over 140 gate drops this year, and maybe only 4-5 practice days, a few of those with a coach to correct flaws I can't see. No camps, no compounds, no home schooling and riding every day. He goes to high school and that's priority 1. Even if he never gets past local B, we've had a hell of a lot of fun and we are very, very close. How do you become a millionaire in motocross? Start with 5 million!
I always thought Adam's rapid growth in his late teens would've been very difficult to work around, especially given the fact that he was already a pro and was expected to be a contender. The physics of a 6'1 175 lb guy riding a motocross bike are different than that of a 5'4 130 lb guy (I'm making up numbers but I'd imagine those aren't too far off the sizes that Adam has raced at as a professional).
When that much growth happens in a short period of time, I would imagine it takes a lot of adjustments in technique. If he had been an amateur when he hit his spurt, he probably could've had time to properly work through these changes and make the right adjustments without the pressure of being on a factory team at the pro level. Instead, he was likely hyper-focused on his race results and, therefore, found work-arounds that were short-term solutions for maintaining winning speed, but were bad in regards to long-term consistency. There are plenty of people who would know more about this than myself, but I can't help but think the growth spurt could've negatively impacted his form on the bike and indirectly caused a lot of his inconsistencies and injuries.
Definitely agree and I would argue that Deegan probably sold more bikes for Yamaha last year than any 450 Yamaha rider outside of Tomac and Reed. 250 riders and even amateur riders do sell plenty of bikes, so there is a return on investment even if they don't pan out in the 450s.
I’m an industry outsider who doesn’t really know much, but my humble opinion says that continuously doing laps around the same track with the same people and only racing 6 times a year instead of doing gate dropped and learning techniques isn’t the best way to go about it.
Over the next few years, American motocross will be dominated further by a bunch of European kids.
But the reality is, not every fast kid will transition into the pros.
I agree with this. In 1980 I got a good deal on CR 80s, we built what we thought were rocket ships, but when I went to the Golden State races, I got SMOKED by George Holland on his Suzuki, I wanted one so bad.
A lot of kids got those YZ and Rm 80s because of kehoe and the Suzuki kids.
Agree. I seem to recall AC saying on a podcast that he had to adjust his style due to his growth.
I think adding the combines will help.
I’d agree, if they did the futures, and combines at every event.
I dont know much, if anything about pro contracts, but `I have read here that PC contracts are heavily biased towards results, with a minimal basic salary.
If this is true, is this the right way for a new pro?
Surely they need a 'bonus' system based on finishing every race of the season? For at least their first, maybe two seasons.
This will encourage them to back it down and get a finish, rather than pushing the limits, crashing and injuring themselves.
Year 3, sure, let's eat! Bonuses for podiums only.
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