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Checking up on someones post count on a topic to use as a gotcha is just weird.
Some people like to participate more than others.
But "you know" he's emotionally invested in this right?
Data is data; it's not correct or incorrect unless there's some error with it. You can draw conclusions from the data.
Now. when you say "caught" on lap 7, Ken ran a faster lap by 0.368 and reduced the gap from 2.398 to 2.030. Lap 7 was also the first lap since the start of the race where the gap hadn't increased from the previous lap.
Lap 8 Jett was 0.093 faster and the gap opened up slightly to 2.123.
Lap 9 - Jett slowed down and did a 1:54.349; Ken also slowed a bit and did 1:53.246.
Ken was incredibly consistent - his lap times from lap 3 to 11 never varied more than 0.5 secs from his average.
So to summarise the data (discounting the first lap):
- 6 out of 7 previous laps Jett ran a faster time than Ken.
- The gap stayed at a bit over 2 secs for three consecutive laps
- Jett ran 1:52's three times; Ken just once. Jett's fastest time was over 0.5 faster than Ken.
- Ken didn't any faster or slower through most of the race.
Also let's consider the recent history. Across an entire 22 moto season, with Chase on his tail many times with a 2 second or less gap, not a single time did Jett falter or choke, or tighten up, nor did he surrender a lead ever.
Now to the narrative bit:
- A 2 sec gap isn't "caught". That's nowhere close enough to even show a wheel.
- For 7 laps in a row Jett runs 1:52/1:53, then all of a sudden because of the "pressure" of a 2 second gap he can't run any better than a 1:54?
The only reason Ken went past is because Jett slowed down. The reason is irrelevant. Whether it's the baby gift excuse, or because he already had the overall in the bag, or whether he was really playing mind games and didn't want to get passed straight up, the outcome is the same.
Regardless of all that, I'll tell you who are emotionally invested - people (riders, fans, anyone else) who are making such a big deal out of just making a straight up pass on the guy. Not a championship, not a race win - just a pass. If that's the headspace his competitors are in it's going to be a long decade for everyone else.
Maybe that will be a claim to fame in years to come - "I once passed Jett Lawrence".
PS. Yes I'm bored and I have a bunch of free time at the moment.
I appreciate a good discussion. Facts show that Jett couldn't sustain the pace, and the fact that he didn't surrender a lead in 22 motos outdoors makes this more interesting. I think bringing outdoors into this discussion actually hurts your conclusions. If Jett can handle the pressure so well, why would he slow down and surrender the lead in this case?
Thats what the data can't draw conclusions on. The facts just show that he couldn't keep pace.
Agree and this all points to Jett's biggest screw up by waving Kenny by.
That's a helluva thing to have on your rap sheet. The best thing he could have done was keep racing and if Ken passed him then shock horror he gets beaten.
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We'll have to disagree on what the facts mean.
He thought (erroneously) that allowing Ken into first would push Chase back a position and close the points gap between himself and Chase. At the same time he knew he wasn't compromising his overall win position. It was a net overall benefit to Jett's championship position (again, based on erroneous thinking).
I'll put it another way - if the scoring was different e.g. points scored for each moto like outdoors, then no way in hell does Jett let Ken go past.
My conclusion is this - if it matters then he isn't letting anyone past; if it doesn't matter then he's mostly not bothered if someone passes him. Either way the outcome is the same - when the money or the title is on the line, then you ain't passing him.
If he'd done it discreetly and feigned a bike issue or even just slowed down, we wouldn't be having this discussion. His screw up was the waving and the comments on the podium.
Jett was beaten straight up twice last week. Every race is straight up. They all start beside each other and the start is part of the race.
I don't see how people think Ken was going to beat Jett though. His lead had increased on every lap except one in those first 8 laps. It's not out of the question, but Ken was only closing in after Jett had done his math and decided he could win the event and take points off Chase by letting Ken beat him.
That's not to say it's out of the question that Ken could have beaten him. But based on both riders careers so far, I think Jett has proven a stronger finisher than Ken. If Jett wanted to win, he would have fought for it. Hopefully we see these 3 guys out front this week where the only result that works for them is a win.
Well except for Ken. He needs other results go his way. Jett and Chase only need to focus on their results though.
That's where you faulter from drawing an empirical conclusion. You can't bring in opinion and present it as fact, no matter how logical you think it is. You can only look at the data.
Not sure how my conclusions are any less empirical than yours. Everything in the first part of my post is pure data. Then I added my opinions.
You say “Jett couldn’t sustain the pace”; you’ve added your own opinion in there.
Change that to "Jett didn't sustain the pace" and now it's factual...
But we'll never know what really happened and I couldn't care less.
We race this weekend for all the beans. Let the gate drop!!!
Wow! The lengths some people in here go to try and prove their biased view....
Sorry but you are changing moto history.....
If tomac had wanted to take out Dungey he had multiple chances to do so.
Instead tomac did the only thing he could do in a sportsmanlike way to take the title.
He bunched up everybody behind him and hoped for Dungey or another rider to make a mistake and it definitely got crazy on those last couple of laps.
Dungey rode a smart race and dealt with the pressure and craziness to win the title.
"By" in my question was only to emphasize the word being incorrectly used. Therefore, the fact it was capitalized does not matter as it was in "quotation" and not in use as an adverb. Also, Jett did not give Kenny a "Bye" (noun). He let him "pass on by" .
History be damned.
This is pretty much where I'm at. I've liked Jett from day one when he endoed into the face of the wall jump racing Ferrandis. You could tell he was willing to risk it all to get the W on that day. This was one bone headed move IMO and just a big-brain fart. As I watched it happen, I was thinking that no true champion ever lets a pass happen just cause. His logic was alright but his arithmetic was off. And no matter what, it's a bad look to give up a win under any circumstances.
I'm curious what Lars thinks about the move. I'm sure he'll never publicly give what he really thinks, but I'm sure he was fuming under the hood after that move.
So many championship winners ride the last round carefully for a position that will give them the title, this 3 round series has a pt system where winning that race was no benefit to winning the title. Following the fast flowing WSX champ that he wasn’t getting away from could be a learning benefit to winning the tittle though.
To me Jett did it because he didn’t want to be pressured into a mistake by Kenny that would have cost him much more than played it off like he was trying to do something smart in the points rather than showing a potential chink in his armour to his competitors
^^ This makes the most sense. Roczen was right, Jett hasn't learned how to lose yet. Part of his problem is he was trying to convince himself that he was in fact letting Kenny by for points gain. When in reality Jett was also trying to convince himself that Kenny wasn't catching him and pressuring him for the win.
Pit Row
All you guy’s caught up on this “he hasn’t learned how to lose” bullshit, I’m pretty sure he didn’t win every race on his 250 on his way to his 4 250 championships
That came out of left field from Roczen. Jett didn’t win much in his first seasons of outdoors and supercross.
And it’s not like he dominated and won everything in amateurs either.
I don't care one way or another its just really funny you of all people comment that.
You are still presenting an opinion as your conclusion. The data can help back it up, though. But, it's still an opinion.
We probably have the same opinions about the incident. But, you are presenting the data like it proves your opinion to be fact, and I just want to make it clear what you're doing. The evidence shows that Jett lost and did not have the pace of Roczen at the end.
And you commenting on my comment….keep on stalking…
Funnily enough, what you're doing here I think would be considered the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
Ha! Haven't seen that one before.
Only 6 pages... you people are slacking
You need to contribute more!
Maybe the reason Jett slowed down is because he was trying to do math and race at full tilt at the same time.
Well now we have two more data points to include in our analysis.
If people had a problem with seeing what went down last weekend, they will still have it today, even with this nights results..
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