Housing Market

So the housing market is on a tear right now... remote work, low interest rates, millennials that have kids no longer want to live in apartments etc etc.

We are looking right now as well and it is really hard to justify paying all time high prices (houses have jumped $50-$100k in the last 6 months in my area) for a starter home, especially with a pretty uncertain future.

Anyone else in this boat or have advice? Don't want to rent anymore and need space for the kids but man, this area is expensive - but near family and work.
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10/7/2020 6:30am Edited Date/Time 10/7/2020 6:36am
Even though you’re paying 50-60 more for starter home, that interest rate will save you way more money on the back end. You should buy now and get some equity it will help you later. Once you get enough on the principle you can do HELOC loans and start leveraging your credit to get some rentals etc or pretty much anything. Renting is convenient because you can just leave anytime and if the roof falls in, not your problem. But you never build any kind of equity, you’re just building it for your landlord.


think the 3% Mortgage interest rates are really helping. although I think it’s been strong since 18. I sold my house in 4 days. I polished it up like a vet owned 450 and got multiple offers in the first 3 days.

Here’s something to consider. When I bought my second house in 2018 the mortgage rates were 5%. Economy way booming. I just refinanced to 2.99% and it dropped my mortgage payment $600 a month!!!! That’s a lot of savings, so makes that house hike a little more palatable knowing the finance charges aren’t as high. They compound and kill you where as your 50k buying price doesn’t.

The current buyers don’t want fixer uppers or put any sweat equity into the house. They want turn key to the point where they don’t even have to paint.

Laborers and tradesman won’t be able to keep up with the new construction that’s happening as well. Shits booming around me.
5
10/7/2020 8:38am
Yeah we are looking a both fixer uppers and housing that are move-in ready. And many are in the same neighborhood. The price difference between them are close to $100k, and using the mortgage calculator the lender gas us, the fixer upper would save about $1000 a month. I have no problems finishing a basement, renovating a kitchen/bathroom etc myself, but working full-time with the kids, a finished house is worth it to a degree.

There are subtle differences like the school districts, driveway/garage vs off-street parking, lot size and the like that do matter to me.

I guess my concern is the value of the house - we are in a pandemic and there are A LOT of people that don't have jobs and aren't paying mortgage/rent right now. What happens when that forgiveness program ends and there is a glut of houses on the market? Do properties lose that value? How long before we regain that value? My parents took a hit in 2008 and we able to barely break even in 2011, and the houses in that neighborhood have been stagnant since. Prices are so high because there is no supply right now, and I'm curious where you see the market going.

We lived in a more rural part of the state about 3.5 hours away and bought down there in 2017. We are selling and will get a nice return on the place when we close. Like I said - the sticker shock is killing me up here - the house we are selling is 1/5 the price of the ones we are now looking at for the same size. BRUTAL!!

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peelout
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Ogden, UT, USA
10/7/2020 9:09am
we've thought about selling our home because of the massive amount of equity we currently have due to the market, but the problem is replacing it without spending a fortune.

apartment buildings and town homes are going up like crazy in Utah right now, it seems like every vacant corner lot from Brigham City to Provo has a new apartment building under construction. it's fuckin' nuts.
3
Falcon
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Menifee, CA, USA
10/7/2020 9:19am
It reminds me of the good ol' days in 2004, when I bought my first new-build house. It appreciated nearly $100,000 before I even moved in. I was up a quarter million dollars just before the bubble burst. Shoulda sold.

Covid, unemployment, people moving out of California... I don't see this ending well here in this state. We'll see what happens elsewhere but I'm not buying again until prices fall. And they will.

The Shop

10/7/2020 7:13pm
We are leaning toward the fixer upper. Take a month a live with mom & dad to make it livable then do what we can when we can.

The price is the biggest driver. $350k duplex (fixer upper) vs $550k single family in the same neighborhood.

I think I'm at the point where we'd rather own something and not risk prices going up and up to the point of never being able to buy, vs waiting for prices to drop. The low interest rates are appealing and once we clean this place up there will be instant value to keep up with the neighborhood and maybe a stepping stone to the next house in 3-5 years.


I think the housing boom is going to continue for a long time and that its a bad time to own rentals apartments/condos.
10/7/2020 7:59pm Edited Date/Time 10/7/2020 8:00pm
Duplex ? Like you live on one side and rent the other out ? That’s a win/win. If you got a decent renter....Your renter helps you build equity....bad renter. Oh boy. Tough decision.
motoman617
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Camarillo, CA, USA
10/7/2020 10:40pm Edited Date/Time 10/7/2020 10:41pm
I was looking at houses around here and prices are up and inventory down. I made an all cash offer on a place nearby and the sale went to someone that bid $5,000 over asking price. Looked at another place I liked but it sold for more than asking price before we could even make an offer. Seems to be a sellers market.
10/8/2020 4:58am
Duplex ? Like you live on one side and rent the other out ? That’s a win/win. If you got a decent renter....Your renter helps you...
Duplex ? Like you live on one side and rent the other out ? That’s a win/win. If you got a decent renter....Your renter helps you build equity....bad renter. Oh boy. Tough decision.
Ha! I Wish!

Each half are individually owned. We would be buying our half of the duplex. The other side has already been renovated by it's current owner.

@motoman617 we have been outbid multiple times. Housing getting 3+ offers within 24 hours, some $25K over. It's insane. This bubble is going to pop eventually but it could be 5 years from now, or never. Who knows!
FLmxer
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Fantasy
10/8/2020 7:23am
Duplex ? Like you live on one side and rent the other out ? That’s a win/win. If you got a decent renter....Your renter helps you...
Duplex ? Like you live on one side and rent the other out ? That’s a win/win. If you got a decent renter....Your renter helps you build equity....bad renter. Oh boy. Tough decision.
That's how I got started at 18. Bought a duplex and rented out one side and lived in the other. My bills were $300 a month after that and i was soon able to buy my first single family home and pay off my duplex. Ended up with 7 high end rentals and stopped working full time in early 30s. Sold all but 2 last year and been land shopping for 20 acres to build on here and have a track but wetlands and neighbors are still a tough issue to find the right place to have a track without complaints. We are waiting on the city to tell us whats possible on this beautiful piece of land we are looking at but I was just there again and the owner was saying how they dug a pond and the neighbors called constantly on them saying they are digging in wetlands but they were not but they kept calling. I said that's a deal breaker. She said it was 20 years ago. I said you are still here 20 years later and people usually get worse so that sucks.
TXDirt
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Plano, TX, USA
10/8/2020 7:56am
peelout wrote:
we've thought about selling our home because of the massive amount of equity we currently have due to the market, but the problem is replacing it...
we've thought about selling our home because of the massive amount of equity we currently have due to the market, but the problem is replacing it without spending a fortune.

apartment buildings and town homes are going up like crazy in Utah right now, it seems like every vacant corner lot from Brigham City to Provo has a new apartment building under construction. it's fuckin' nuts.
Pretty much the same boat for us. Yeah, you can sell at an all-time high right now, but then you pretty much have to go out and buy another house, at, get this, an all-time high.

You may be able to bank a little cash but with all the headaches and cost of moving it basically comes out net net zero.

We are probably 20 years from retirement. So really you hope you can sell your home for x dollars when you retire and then buy a smaller cheaper house paid off for half of what you sell current home for. So that way you can bank way more money.
at687
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Newport Beach, CA, USA
10/8/2020 9:02pm Edited Date/Time 10/8/2020 9:03pm
I own a re brokerage in orange county and anything under 1M is sold before you put the sign in the ground. I don't see any prices dropping for a while. Issue is, inventory along with low interest rates. We've been having inventory issues for 2 years or so. Delinquencies are also stable at around 1.9 anything.

During this shutdown, most of the mortgage relief or forebances that went into effect only accounts for 6-8 percent of the market(here in CA) and out of those, they have 70% of them have 50%+ percent equity. Also commercial properties, really on fire as well (as long as it's priced right)
navalseabee
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Virginia Beach, VA, USA
10/9/2020 2:54am
FLmxer wrote:
That's how I got started at 18. Bought a duplex and rented out one side and lived in the other. My bills were $300 a month...
That's how I got started at 18. Bought a duplex and rented out one side and lived in the other. My bills were $300 a month after that and i was soon able to buy my first single family home and pay off my duplex. Ended up with 7 high end rentals and stopped working full time in early 30s. Sold all but 2 last year and been land shopping for 20 acres to build on here and have a track but wetlands and neighbors are still a tough issue to find the right place to have a track without complaints. We are waiting on the city to tell us whats possible on this beautiful piece of land we are looking at but I was just there again and the owner was saying how they dug a pond and the neighbors called constantly on them saying they are digging in wetlands but they were not but they kept calling. I said that's a deal breaker. She said it was 20 years ago. I said you are still here 20 years later and people usually get worse so that sucks.
It’s amazing they can tell you what you can and can’t do with property you purchased.
10/9/2020 5:55am
at687 wrote:
I own a re brokerage in orange county and anything under 1M is sold before you put the sign in the ground. I don't see any...
I own a re brokerage in orange county and anything under 1M is sold before you put the sign in the ground. I don't see any prices dropping for a while. Issue is, inventory along with low interest rates. We've been having inventory issues for 2 years or so. Delinquencies are also stable at around 1.9 anything.

During this shutdown, most of the mortgage relief or forebances that went into effect only accounts for 6-8 percent of the market(here in CA) and out of those, they have 70% of them have 50%+ percent equity. Also commercial properties, really on fire as well (as long as it's priced right)
So. As a country we’ve pretty much made a direct flip from 2008 when everyone was upside down on houses and losing them To now having equity in them? Or not really? Is that a 1.9% delinquency rate ?
sandtrack315
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10/10/2020 4:56am
I just tried to buy a house in chestnut hill (edge of Philadelphia). Listed for 525 and went for 610...
1
rollin64caddy
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San Diego, CA, USA
10/10/2020 8:21am
Yeah it's pretty discouraging. I have a good job that pays fairly well but I still dont see how people afford 700k houses in my area.
2
10/10/2020 8:32am
People will migrate based on housing as work becomes more remote. My apologies in advance to Idaho, Utah, Montana...the Californies are coming...what you have now is just the forward scouts
1
10/10/2020 8:51am Edited Date/Time 10/10/2020 8:52am
People will migrate based on housing as work becomes more remote. My apologies in advance to Idaho, Utah, Montana...the Californies are coming...what you have now is...
People will migrate based on housing as work becomes more remote. My apologies in advance to Idaho, Utah, Montana...the Californies are coming...what you have now is just the forward scouts
Vomit.

Even great dual six figure earning households can be house poor 500+. That’s insane.
JeremyK
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North Tonawanda, NY, USA
10/10/2020 9:04am
motoman617 wrote:
I was looking at houses around here and prices are up and inventory down. I made an all cash offer on a place nearby and the...
I was looking at houses around here and prices are up and inventory down. I made an all cash offer on a place nearby and the sale went to someone that bid $5,000 over asking price. Looked at another place I liked but it sold for more than asking price before we could even make an offer. Seems to be a sellers market.
Houses are selling around me in a matter of days .
Dudley
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Denver, CO, USA
10/10/2020 9:42am
When I financed my first house 15 years ago, we got record low interest rate of 6.875% at the time. We just refinanced our 15 year loan and received 2.25%. That’s basically free money in comparison. Hard to predict The future. At some point they have to Raise the interest rate and then the amount that houses appreciate will have to slow down.

Owning a home is expensive so you have to factor that all in as well. Having a house that is paid off when you get older and closer to retirement is huge though. In my area rent is more than A mortgage so it really makes sense to own if you’re comfortable with the debt.
factoryfatty
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Vancouver, WA, USA
10/10/2020 1:59pm
I'm not too surprised housing prices are blowing up since the federal reserve dumped 3 trillion into Wall Street in March/April, dropped interest rates to 0, and the federal government printed up over 2 trillion for the Cares act. You would think that this much more cash sloshing around chasing a limited amount of houses for sale this would happen.

The big boys with the direct line to the federal reserve printer are jumping into housing with both feet. These are the institutions you could be bidding against.

You're witnessing the financialization of the single family home
2
factoryfatty
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Vancouver, WA, USA
10/10/2020 2:01pm
It's no longer a home for you're family but an asset on a balance sheet of a portfolio
1
10/19/2020 10:15am
34moto894 wrote:
We are leaning toward the fixer upper. Take a month a live with mom & dad to make it livable then do what we can when...
We are leaning toward the fixer upper. Take a month a live with mom & dad to make it livable then do what we can when we can.

The price is the biggest driver. $350k duplex (fixer upper) vs $550k single family in the same neighborhood.

I think I'm at the point where we'd rather own something and not risk prices going up and up to the point of never being able to buy, vs waiting for prices to drop. The low interest rates are appealing and once we clean this place up there will be instant value to keep up with the neighborhood and maybe a stepping stone to the next house in 3-5 years.


I think the housing boom is going to continue for a long time and that its a bad time to own rentals apartments/condos.
Well we got our offer accepted on the fixer upper. I'll send some updates once we get in the place.

Excited to start cleaning out cat sh*t and who knows what else this guy has been living in.

Lotta nights and weekends ahead of me getting it livable but excited to start the process (once we close of course - still negotiating per the inspection).
1
JRT812
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Cottontown, TN, USA
10/19/2020 3:14pm
Had pics of our house taken on a tues. It was going to be listed on the market Thursday same week. We had 3 buyers one being cash and paying closing costs 2hrs after the cameraman left.

This was a couple weeks ago. Pretty much the same scenario for the house we bought. Really can’t take time to think about it. Tried it with other houses and they sold immediately
1
TeamGreen
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Thru-out, CA, USA
10/20/2020 12:51pm
Now's a good time to buy some property "outside of town" and build.
jgmxdad251
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Simi Valley, CA, USA
10/20/2020 3:53pm
Friend of ours bought a place in a real nice area in south Washington. She had to send a letter in with her offer. The home owner picked her even though their was an offer for 60k over asking. Turns out the other offers were people from California, our friend is from Washington.
I am currently looking for a place around the Tehachapi area. Trying to Find something single story with a little bit of land. Hopefully no close neighbors.
Shiftfaced
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Ruby Ridge, ID, USA
10/21/2020 2:38pm
Boise is going CRAZY.

Buddy just sold his house.

Listed it on the MLS on Monday, asked for all offers by Friday.

Got an offer on Tuesday that was for “$10,000 higher than any other offer you get.”

Got another offer that was similar on Friday.

Told them both the scenario, and told them to submit their “Highest and Best” offer within 48 hours, and he got $40,000 over ask.

I don’t know how reliable the Zillow machine is, but my property has gained over $25,000 in the last 30 days.
Falcon
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Menifee, CA, USA
10/22/2020 8:58am
The market is going bonkers, unemployment and layoffs are way up, banks are offering HELOCs and it's all starting to look like 2007 again. Hmmmmmmm.
I haven't done any deep digging, and I'm certainly no expert, but I feel like there's going to be a correction.
4
motoman617
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Camarillo, CA, USA
10/22/2020 10:33am
jgmxdad251 wrote:
Friend of ours bought a place in a real nice area in south Washington. She had to send a letter in with her offer. The home...
Friend of ours bought a place in a real nice area in south Washington. She had to send a letter in with her offer. The home owner picked her even though their was an offer for 60k over asking. Turns out the other offers were people from California, our friend is from Washington.
I am currently looking for a place around the Tehachapi area. Trying to Find something single story with a little bit of land. Hopefully no close neighbors.
I was looking at places in the Bear Valley Springs area not too long ago. I know some people that bought there and they like it a lot. You can sure get a lot more house and some land for your money compared to Ventura County.

I am going to wait a while before I do anything and see what the housing market does.
1

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