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Smoke and Noise #8
Written by Steve Bruhn Wednesday, 21 May 2008 16:16
Smoke and Noise #8
A Racetime.com Column by TFS
Smoke and Noise is back with a pre-nationals addition, and an update on industry trends that will unravel in the coming months and years. We also take an admittedly premature and uninformed look at what DMG's appearance in motorcycle racing means for the overall culture of racing, which badly needs an overhaul. Are they the right ones to bring it?
Adjustments In the US for a Nose-Diving Economy
Tough times are ahead for the US economy, in fact they are here. OEM factory teams that race AMA SX and MX are already feeling it with cutbacks driven by slagging sales figures.
OEM companies in the US are already moving management around, and changing budgets and priorities. All this is going on just as they are trying to read DMG intentions on superbike to see if its worth it, and asking are the nationals even worth it anymore? Also at this time, we are seeing the "private superteams" pick things up.
Millsaps is going to Joe Gibbs Racing. Stewart is going to L&M. Reed may end up on a custom deal of his own that gives him time to do SX, big TV shows like X Games, and his own plans for SX in Australia. DV12 is shaking the trees for a ride in Europe.
The factory teams in SXMX will remain, but they may take semis off the road, hire less riders, and scrap non SXMX (GNCC, etc) semis for something cheaper when their current contracts run out. The near future looks like stronger private superteams with factory support, and less and less factory money for "corporate showcase" racing programs.
We often hear people saying US racing is #1 because there is so much money - the market thing. Top riders from Europe have been migrating to the US for years for more money, longer schedules and supercross.
GP riders still want to come to the US. Rattray is next in line if KTM's plans don't change, and MX2 series leader Tyla Rattray is looking. In fact, he knows now is the time to seal a US deal. He started the GPs this year with a newer, more aggressive attitude because he wants to be MX2 champion, but he needs to show something early in the season to increase his chances of making it to the US during budget cuts. The rules of money seem to change for winners, so that's his best strategy.
Why Worry?
The Japanese spend millions on racing in the US and literally subsidize the sport, because that is where the market is - or was. Now they are losing money on MX sales, and you can't expect them to spend millions to lose money forever. They are patient, but they are feeling it and signs of change are here.
Not only are sales down, but the exchange rate is bad too, so they are spinning their wheels spending so much to make nothing. If they can get the job done in the DMG era with private superteams, that's a smart way out - if DMG does what it says and makes them healthy and "partners" in a system that makes sense. More on that at the conclusion....
On the other hand, Europe is stoked. Racing is doing well and getting better organized, the exchange rate is such that OEMs are making good money in Europe, and you have to wonder if Europe will become the new US, and US racing becomes more NASCAR (where you don't need the millions as a subsidy as much.) Sales are good in Europe, and they are building up amateur programs and and saving two-strokes to benefit amateurs and doing things to keep the base healthy.
The FIM has started a "Strategic Committee" to follow through on longer term plans and keep OEMs interested there. The committee deals with manufacturer's issues, marketing and plans. It sounds a bit like what the AMA tried to be before it gave up.
What's That Mean?
US Racing is losing it's "we got the market" advantage and needs to adjust, and it's up to DMG (assuming they end up with supercross too-which seems like only a matter of terms and time.) to make racing better anyway.
Signs of Change
Smoke and Noise didnt make the invite list to hear the backroom deals that have been going on for months, but we know a few things-
-DMG wants SX.
-DMG, Live Nation, and npg are all worried about other events getting their mojo. They hate big TV events like X Games because ESPN is wiping it's backside with them on TV where racing promoters are just out-gunned. They treat athletes right and have no trouble getting "names" to race, even when all kinds of dirty tricks and threats are thrown at them to keep them away.
-SX wants to go to 20 events. This is actually the upper limit in the current SX agreement, and it also includes a summer embargo on SX to protect the nationals. But, ESPN doesn't have such constraints, and as soon as DMG gets SX in-house, they will own both the series and AMA Racing, so both parties in the agreement are the same company. If they want to expand SX into the summer to try and displace ESPN or someone else, it's going to be tempting.
-Roger Edmondson with DMG said recently he expected to sell the marketing rights to the nationals, long term, to the npg, but so far it looks like a handshake deal as we go into round 1 this weekend at Glen Helen.
-DMG seems to be leaving the npg alone this summer to give them a chance to show their stuff, which sounds a lot like last year at this time when the AMA was giving them a summer to get it together before they decided to dump the npg and put the series up for bid. They get a second chance, paid for by the DMG.
-No one knows what to do yet about MX TV after this summer, when the money-losing SpeedTV deal is up. Who will have the money and experience to put something really good together? Why would the npg do it without a long term deal, and if they get it, now what? They would be in way over their heads. The past arrangement between the AMA and npg left TV under AMA control, and they got sick of losing money off it. This also left the npg without much TV mojo. Racer X Films are really good, but they won't take on ESPN.
-TV ratings are terrible. Some of the Lites MX races last summer were viewed by less people on TV than SX gets at a race like San Diego or Atlanta. That means less than 70,000 people saw the program.
What's Going to Happen with the Nationals?
Short term-
The series is starting the summer with a defensive attitude and lots of plans. The npg took quite a beating after the Budds MXoN. They got defensive and angry when alternative promoters were considered. Now they want to address the things they were criticized for - like weak media support. Lot's of new ideas are coming out, and some old things that were handled badly are getting another look.
The best change is probably going to be the tracks. Marc Peters was hired as track builder to give the series some consistency. The npg spent time with the teams talking about what does it take to make a 125/250 track a good 250F/450F track, and it could all come together for a better result this time. They have a good track builder and a head start on what to do different.
The npg says the nationals will have a real media tent and internet this time. This was to answer the weak media support problem. This will be an improvement, but it won't change media much. It's not the size of the tent you pitch that matters, it's what you do with it, and how long you keep it open so people can use it. Media will be able to get more done at least, and hopefully the media center gets busy both days like they are in the GPs, which are years ahead.
The weakness in US media does not come from tent size or interent - it comes from years of promoters treating them like invaders, or even competitors. US promoters have it wrong. They think the news has to be written and controlled by them, so this is why media support makes no sense to them. They should see media coming and welcome them in as more chances for promotion, but all this time all they really saw was competitors they don't care to help. "Screw SXMX media, they can take care of themselves" has been the rule for a long time. The npg can't change this, because they have a case of conflict of interest working against them. The npg is a promoter and a publisher, so the chances of them really caring about "competitors" don't exist. It won't work.
All together, a big tent and internet are good. Thinking hasn't changed. Structural problems like conflict of interest still exist.
Long Term -
MX will take a back seat to whatever DMG does with SX, which wants to grow to 20 events.
TV will be a problem after this summer. Where will the money come from? Pass the hat?
With Stewart and KW already on private superteams, and if Reed puts one together, and they are all SX-only, its easy to see that trend growing, especially if SX grows and puts even more pressure on a too-busy schedule. We may just see private Supercross superteams that skip the nationals.
The high cost of travel this summer is going to make a lot of non-podium teams ask why they are doing it. They lose money now during the summer to keep doing SX, but if sponsors go for SX only, things change.
What's Needed is a Culture Change. Can DMG Bring It?
US racing doesn't just need different deals and different names. It needs a culture change. It needs to stop thinking of media and teams as competitors, and think of them as partners that are treated fairly, and partners that have a right to exist with some dignity and respect. Ask for that now, and people will laugh at you.
Teams complain all the time that they are hammered with arbitrary restrictions on promoting themselves at the races, and even promoters going after their own sponsors. Drive up to a race with a big energy drink on your truck, and some mucky muck from promotion will run over and start making demands. "Don't give out samples, don't do this, park over there..." It drives them crazy. The crap behind the scenes is worse, because promoters (SX is the worst) actually go after sponsors as soon as they learn who they are, and try and get that money for themselves. The pitch is "Don't waste your money on teams. Riders get hurt. Spend your money with us and you get track signage, etc."
Much of the media at SX this year got sick of LN's bad attidude's about them, because this was the worst year ever, but people don't feel free to talk about it. It got so bad, it seemed LN was just trying to shove them and harrass them until they left pissed off. For a few, it worked. It was common for LN people to be seen arguing with media over nothing again and again, and some of the comments were stupid like "why don't you go home" or "My neighbor can take better pictures than you from the stands, up there.." LN's final gift for those that stuck it out to Vegas was a "red" track map, which meant "Thanks for coming, now get off the track." No dignity, no respect.
You can't have a healthy relationship with your partners and steal from them at the same time. You won't have a good relationship with media by insulting them. That's where a culture change has to happen.
We don't know yet if Roger Edmondson is the guy to bring culture change to motorcycle racing. Hopefully he reads business news and reads about Gordon Bethune, the guy that used culture change and "dignity and respect" to turn Continental Airlines from a losing, disrespected airline to a respected winner. It's possible with the right moves and attitude changes. People laughed at Bethune too, and now he's a hero.
Blog Headlines
Smoke and Noise #8
Written by Steve Bruhn Wednesday, 21 May 2008 16:16
Smoke and Noise #8
A Racetime.com Column by TFS
Smoke and Noise is back with a pre-nationals addition, and an update on industry trends that will unravel in the coming months and years. We also take an admittedly premature and uninformed look at what DMG's appearance in motorcycle racing means for the overall culture of racing, which badly needs an overhaul. Are they the right ones to bring it?
Adjustments In the US for a Nose-Diving Economy
Tough times are ahead for the US economy, in fact they are here. OEM factory teams that race AMA SX and MX are already feeling it with cutbacks driven by slagging sales figures.
OEM companies in the US are already moving management around, and changing budgets and priorities. All this is going on just as they are trying to read DMG intentions on superbike to see if its worth it, and asking are the nationals even worth it anymore? Also at this time, we are seeing the "private superteams" pick things up.
Millsaps is going to Joe Gibbs Racing. Stewart is going to L&M. Reed may end up on a custom deal of his own that gives him time to do SX, big TV shows like X Games, and his own plans for SX in Australia. DV12 is shaking the trees for a ride in Europe.
The factory teams in SXMX will remain, but they may take semis off the road, hire less riders, and scrap non SXMX (GNCC, etc) semis for something cheaper when their current contracts run out. The near future looks like stronger private superteams with factory support, and less and less factory money for "corporate showcase" racing programs.
We often hear people saying US racing is #1 because there is so much money - the market thing. Top riders from Europe have been migrating to the US for years for more money, longer schedules and supercross.
GP riders still want to come to the US. Rattray is next in line if KTM's plans don't change, and MX2 series leader Tyla Rattray is looking. In fact, he knows now is the time to seal a US deal. He started the GPs this year with a newer, more aggressive attitude because he wants to be MX2 champion, but he needs to show something early in the season to increase his chances of making it to the US during budget cuts. The rules of money seem to change for winners, so that's his best strategy.
Why Worry?
The Japanese spend millions on racing in the US and literally subsidize the sport, because that is where the market is - or was. Now they are losing money on MX sales, and you can't expect them to spend millions to lose money forever. They are patient, but they are feeling it and signs of change are here.
Not only are sales down, but the exchange rate is bad too, so they are spinning their wheels spending so much to make nothing. If they can get the job done in the DMG era with private superteams, that's a smart way out - if DMG does what it says and makes them healthy and "partners" in a system that makes sense. More on that at the conclusion....
On the other hand, Europe is stoked. Racing is doing well and getting better organized, the exchange rate is such that OEMs are making good money in Europe, and you have to wonder if Europe will become the new US, and US racing becomes more NASCAR (where you don't need the millions as a subsidy as much.) Sales are good in Europe, and they are building up amateur programs and and saving two-strokes to benefit amateurs and doing things to keep the base healthy.
The FIM has started a "Strategic Committee" to follow through on longer term plans and keep OEMs interested there. The committee deals with manufacturer's issues, marketing and plans. It sounds a bit like what the AMA tried to be before it gave up.
What's That Mean?
US Racing is losing it's "we got the market" advantage and needs to adjust, and it's up to DMG (assuming they end up with supercross too-which seems like only a matter of terms and time.) to make racing better anyway.
Signs of Change
Smoke and Noise didnt make the invite list to hear the backroom deals that have been going on for months, but we know a few things-
-DMG wants SX.
-DMG, Live Nation, and npg are all worried about other events getting their mojo. They hate big TV events like X Games because ESPN is wiping it's backside with them on TV where racing promoters are just out-gunned. They treat athletes right and have no trouble getting "names" to race, even when all kinds of dirty tricks and threats are thrown at them to keep them away.
-SX wants to go to 20 events. This is actually the upper limit in the current SX agreement, and it also includes a summer embargo on SX to protect the nationals. But, ESPN doesn't have such constraints, and as soon as DMG gets SX in-house, they will own both the series and AMA Racing, so both parties in the agreement are the same company. If they want to expand SX into the summer to try and displace ESPN or someone else, it's going to be tempting.
-Roger Edmondson with DMG said recently he expected to sell the marketing rights to the nationals, long term, to the npg, but so far it looks like a handshake deal as we go into round 1 this weekend at Glen Helen.
-DMG seems to be leaving the npg alone this summer to give them a chance to show their stuff, which sounds a lot like last year at this time when the AMA was giving them a summer to get it together before they decided to dump the npg and put the series up for bid. They get a second chance, paid for by the DMG.
-No one knows what to do yet about MX TV after this summer, when the money-losing SpeedTV deal is up. Who will have the money and experience to put something really good together? Why would the npg do it without a long term deal, and if they get it, now what? They would be in way over their heads. The past arrangement between the AMA and npg left TV under AMA control, and they got sick of losing money off it. This also left the npg without much TV mojo. Racer X Films are really good, but they won't take on ESPN.
-TV ratings are terrible. Some of the Lites MX races last summer were viewed by less people on TV than SX gets at a race like San Diego or Atlanta. That means less than 70,000 people saw the program.
What's Going to Happen with the Nationals?
Short term-
The series is starting the summer with a defensive attitude and lots of plans. The npg took quite a beating after the Budds MXoN. They got defensive and angry when alternative promoters were considered. Now they want to address the things they were criticized for - like weak media support. Lot's of new ideas are coming out, and some old things that were handled badly are getting another look.
The best change is probably going to be the tracks. Marc Peters was hired as track builder to give the series some consistency. The npg spent time with the teams talking about what does it take to make a 125/250 track a good 250F/450F track, and it could all come together for a better result this time. They have a good track builder and a head start on what to do different.
The npg says the nationals will have a real media tent and internet this time. This was to answer the weak media support problem. This will be an improvement, but it won't change media much. It's not the size of the tent you pitch that matters, it's what you do with it, and how long you keep it open so people can use it. Media will be able to get more done at least, and hopefully the media center gets busy both days like they are in the GPs, which are years ahead.
The weakness in US media does not come from tent size or interent - it comes from years of promoters treating them like invaders, or even competitors. US promoters have it wrong. They think the news has to be written and controlled by them, so this is why media support makes no sense to them. They should see media coming and welcome them in as more chances for promotion, but all this time all they really saw was competitors they don't care to help. "Screw SXMX media, they can take care of themselves" has been the rule for a long time. The npg can't change this, because they have a case of conflict of interest working against them. The npg is a promoter and a publisher, so the chances of them really caring about "competitors" don't exist. It won't work.
All together, a big tent and internet are good. Thinking hasn't changed. Structural problems like conflict of interest still exist.
Long Term -
MX will take a back seat to whatever DMG does with SX, which wants to grow to 20 events.
TV will be a problem after this summer. Where will the money come from? Pass the hat?
With Stewart and KW already on private superteams, and if Reed puts one together, and they are all SX-only, its easy to see that trend growing, especially if SX grows and puts even more pressure on a too-busy schedule. We may just see private Supercross superteams that skip the nationals.
The high cost of travel this summer is going to make a lot of non-podium teams ask why they are doing it. They lose money now during the summer to keep doing SX, but if sponsors go for SX only, things change.
What's Needed is a Culture Change. Can DMG Bring It?
US racing doesn't just need different deals and different names. It needs a culture change. It needs to stop thinking of media and teams as competitors, and think of them as partners that are treated fairly, and partners that have a right to exist with some dignity and respect. Ask for that now, and people will laugh at you.
Teams complain all the time that they are hammered with arbitrary restrictions on promoting themselves at the races, and even promoters going after their own sponsors. Drive up to a race with a big energy drink on your truck, and some mucky muck from promotion will run over and start making demands. "Don't give out samples, don't do this, park over there..." It drives them crazy. The crap behind the scenes is worse, because promoters (SX is the worst) actually go after sponsors as soon as they learn who they are, and try and get that money for themselves. The pitch is "Don't waste your money on teams. Riders get hurt. Spend your money with us and you get track signage, etc."
Much of the media at SX this year got sick of LN's bad attidude's about them, because this was the worst year ever, but people don't feel free to talk about it. It got so bad, it seemed LN was just trying to shove them and harrass them until they left pissed off. For a few, it worked. It was common for LN people to be seen arguing with media over nothing again and again, and some of the comments were stupid like "why don't you go home" or "My neighbor can take better pictures than you from the stands, up there.." LN's final gift for those that stuck it out to Vegas was a "red" track map, which meant "Thanks for coming, now get off the track." No dignity, no respect.
You can't have a healthy relationship with your partners and steal from them at the same time. You won't have a good relationship with media by insulting them. That's where a culture change has to happen.
We don't know yet if Roger Edmondson is the guy to bring culture change to motorcycle racing. Hopefully he reads business news and reads about Gordon Bethune, the guy that used culture change and "dignity and respect" to turn Continental Airlines from a losing, disrespected airline to a respected winner. It's possible with the right moves and attitude changes. People laughed at Bethune too, and now he's a hero.
Blog Headlines
Smoke and Noise #8
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This isn’t hate, it the truth. I have experienced it first hand.
Don’t blame the messenger for revealing the true message.
I can’t find anything in the article that isn’t true.
Ok, great a media tent....How does that help the paying fan? Paying for parking? 10 bucks to park at Glen Helen this year. You could park for free at Huyndai Pavillion, but then you have to lug all your shit to the track. Last year Toyota offered free rides in the back of their trucks to get you to the track.
Ticket prices are still reasonable for the amout of time your there for.
You can have all the media in the wolrd there,but if there is no fan base, just who is the media going to give coverage to? TFS makes some good points, now, where was he when he was getting a nice pay check from RacerX? You see because he was part of the inside, he kept his mouth shut. Fast foreward to now, dude has burned some bridges and is looking for attention.
Before the promoters could just put a race on and people would show, thats kinda of gotten old. Local baseball teams offer dollar beer night..free hat night..half price ticket night. You can't even get a free sticker from the factory teams. NPG better do something to attract tehe fans. No Windham, no Reed, RC retired, JBS maybe going sx only next year. Are people really going to pay to see Villipoto, Dungy, Alessi, Stroupe, and J-law race in a bad economy. Yes, I will but will the average fan?
That could be 100% accurate and I would still dislike him. what Newman said in the post above your is 100% truth. Tfs is an overbearing over opinionated blowhard. He is bitter so he took his ball and went home.
He has screwed a ton of people to get what he wanted and now the chickensssssssssa are comin home to roost. Karma is a bitch.
I also enjoy reading his stuff a lot; I just keep an open mind while doing so, since I'm aware he might have certain biases. . .
And the SX series should just put Eric Peronnard in charge of production and promotion.
If you don't know there is an event going on then no one comes, this week the Riverside News, San Bernardino News, LA Times and OC Register will have stories and Johnny Never Been to a Race will say wow it's kind of chilly here by the beach, let's go check out that race that's only an 45-60 mins away. Happens all the time, YOU NEED MEDIA and if you treat them like shit, you don't get the invite out to the party.
S
Frankly, I think that the continuing demise of dirtbike riding in general has a far more ominous cloud over the long term than any bickering at the top level of MX or SX. No dirtbikes = no MX or SX.
Don't mistake critical writing for "hate."
No one hates motocross or American Motocross.
Let it go, man!
I think there has been so little critical writing about the ways things work, that some of you just react. People like jmar have "been there-done that" and have been ignored too long.
You people need to stop worrying about my "axe" with the Octopus. I have to hold back a lot and just write about business, so watch out...
Pit Row
Any idea on what he'll be doing or how he'll interface with the various facilities?
S
Fans are needed, especially the non-racer/rider crowd. Without them, what's the point in sponsors supporting the sport? With no eyes watching, no products will be sold. And why the emphasis on bringing in eyes from outside the sport? To bring in the non-endemic sponsorship dollars. That's why the media is so important. Baby these guys and gals and hold their hands. Hire personal assistants for each media member to fan them during the 30 minute motos and to refresh their Redbulls and Monsters. Give them a comfy place to write and work. Treat them right and they will give us positive coverage.
Non factory teams are the wave of the future. I think the best way to illustrate this is to look at all other forms of racing outside of 2 wheels. Look at NASCAR, huge dollars and huge exposure but the factories don't run the teams. Yes they support them but that is a totally different deal. Plus, anyone remember the time when the factories were in box vans and the privateers were in pick ups? How many people are now sick and tired of hearing the guy on the satellite team that flies to the races, has a mechanic and trainer, receives a paycheck from the team, hangs out in the semi all day, called a privateer? The shift from factory to private teams started a long time ago.
Supercross will continue to be more important than motocross. It's all about the eyes. It brings in fans from outside the industry because of the "show". It's not my thing, personally I'd love it to lose all importance and we just race outdoors all the time, but that's not the reality.
Motocross will always be around. What happens when the factories stop supporting the teams? What happens when we lose our TV deal and can't get another? What happens when you can't get a title sponsor for the outdoor series? People will still race on Sunday. Sure, the numbers will be down, the industry will shrink but the bottom line is that motocross always has been and will be a grass roots sport. If there are still two people with a dirt bike each on a piece of land, they will still try to get from point a to point b faster than the other. It's human nature. Riders will still head to the local track and line up. Sure, without the media exposure the crowds will thin and there will be an extra spot or two on the gate, but motocross will live.
That's just my two cents I guess.
Truthfully, he is just a Michael Moore socialist who hates America and constantly pines for Europe and it is hard to take him seriously. Read between the lines of the article:
"Smoke and Noise didnt make the invite list to hear the backroom deals that have been going on for months, but we know a few things-"
There is a reason TFS didn't get the "invite" and as he drifts further away from the industry insiders he once attached himself to, his rants will become more meaningless and out of touch. Not to say he didn't bring up good points, but TFS is far from being the insider he once was and as he sinks deeper into his narcissistic "I know it all" take on things, he will eventually find his way to the nut house...
And yes I have an axe to grind - I love my country - he doesn't...
Comparing Michael Moore to TFS is an insult to Mr. Moore. Mr Moore was never in bed with those who he now choose to expose. Big difference IMHO.
Post a reply to: Why all the hate for American Motocross?